0
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
General Election
One year out
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Welcome:
Sir Robert
Worcester
Founder of MORI
3
Base: c.1,000-3,000 British adults per poll, 1st March 2013 – 12th May 2014
Sources: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor, ICM, ...
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Professor
Roger Mortimore
Professor of Public Opinion and Political
Analysis at Insti...
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
The Election:
One Year Out
Roger Mortimore
Professor of Public Opinion and Political
...
6
The most unpredictable election in living memory?
 What are the precedents?
– The last time a government increased its ...
Marginal seats
General election 2010 Overall majority
326 seats
Marginal seats
General election 2010
306
258
57
Marginal seats
To win in 2015
306
258
57
Conservatives
need 20 gains
Labour need
68 gains
Marginal seats
To win in 2015
306
258
57
Conservatives
need 1.9%
swing
Labour need
5.0% swing
11
A 5% swing is big, but not impossibly big
Source: House of Commons Library
Swings at general elections
2.8
1.1
1.7
1.2
...
12
May change my mindDefinitely decided
81%
18%
Increasing volatility of the voters
Q Have you definitely decided to vote ...
13
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
Voting intentions and turnout
% of supporters “Absolutely certain to vote”
Source: ...
14
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
Voting intentions and turnout
% of supporters “Absolutely certain to vote”
Source: ...
How voters decide
16
How voters decide
Policies
PartyLocal
candidates
Leaders
Perceptions, not facts,
make public opinion
17
The political triangle: trends
Q I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the … party. … If you ...
18
The political triangle: trends
Q I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the … party. … If you ...
19
The political triangle: trends
Q I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the … party. … If you ...
20
The political triangle: trends
Q I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the … party. … If you ...
21
…pointing out what was
wrong with the policies and
personalities in other parties
…putting forward their
own policies a...
22
What the voters say they don’t like –
negative campaigning
23
Positive and negative perceptions - 2010
Base: 1,253 GB adults aged 18+, 18-20 April 2010 Source: Mortimore et al (2014...
And finally
25
Government lead in the polls – one year out
2015
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
One year out
26
Government lead in the polls – one year out
2015
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
One year out
In 6 out of 9 elec...
27
Government lead in the polls – one year out
2015
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
One year out
In 6 out of 9 elec...
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Thank you
Roger Mortimore
Professor of Public Opinion and
Political Analysis at Insti...
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Ben Page
Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
One Year from
the Election…
Ben Page
Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI
@benatipsosmori
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
8%
10%
13%
14%
11%
14%
15%
24%
31%
33%
47%
Defence/Foreign
Housing
Poverty/Inequality...
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
9%
10%
10%
12%
12%
13%
14%
23%
30%
39%
45%
8%
10%
13%
14%
11%
14%
15%
24%
31%
33%
47%...
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jun-97
Sep-97
Dec-97
Mar-98
Jun-98
Sep-98
Dec-98
Mar-99
Jun-9...
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
…but few think it has benefited them
As you may know, according to official statistic...
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
…leads to “none of the above”?
% who think .... would be the same under a Labour/Cons...
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Which brings
us to.....
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
UKIP: out of touch (for some) but touching a nerve
Now thinking about UKIP, to what e...
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Targeting?
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Newark?
Turnout = 71.5%
2010 GE
53.9%
22.3%
20.0%
3.8%
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UK...
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Only 51%of
voters for UKIP in
the European
elections say they
are likely to vote
for ...
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Four challenges
for the
Conservatives
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
The system is
massively against
them (see Roger)1
Their vote share
(see Bob)2
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Remain the MOST
disliked party3
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Struggle outside the South
38%
23%
16%
16%
7%
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
The north is very red
28%
45%
10%
13%
4%
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Not a “women problem”, but a younger women
problem
“How would you vote if there were ...
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
The rise of UKIP
4
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
UKIP still picking up most from Conservatives – Pig
wrestling any one?
2014 UKIP Vote...
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Three challenges
for Labour
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Their vote share too....
1
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
0
10
20
30
40
50
Nov-03
Feb-04
May-04
Aug-04
Nov-04
Feb-05
May-05
Aug-05
Nov-05
Feb-0...
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Credibility of Ed
Miliband2
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Ed’s approval ratings are low – IDS and Hague low......
How satisfied or dissatisfied...
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Credibility on the
economy3
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
The Conservatives hold the mantle of economic
credibility
Which party do you think ha...
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
The Conservatives hold the mantle of economic
credibility
Which party do you think ha...
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Lib Dems
suffering – but
will still have
many more MPs
than UKIP
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
…but are their supporters giving up?
How important, if at all, is it to you personall...
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
2015: The “War of the Weak”?
In 1993: 83% identify with one of
the three main parties...
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Thank you
Ben.page@ipsos.com
+44 20 7347 3000
@benatipsosmori
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
James
O’Shaughnessy
Chief Policy Adviser at Portland
Communications
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Miranda Green
Editor of The Day
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Matthew Taylor
Chief Executive of the
Royal Society of Arts
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Q&A from audience
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Thank you…
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General Election: One Year Out

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In new research carried out by Ipsos MORI and King’s College London, just under half of Britons (45%) say it is very important to them who wins the election, matching figures normally seen at the very height of the election campaign itself in 2010 and 2005. Indeed, only six months before the last election in November 2009, just 35% said the election result was very important to them. More infomation: http://www.ipsos-mori.com/oneyearout

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Transcript of "General Election: One Year Out"

  1. 1. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London General Election One year out
  2. 2. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Welcome: Sir Robert Worcester Founder of MORI
  3. 3. 3 Base: c.1,000-3,000 British adults per poll, 1st March 2013 – 12th May 2014 Sources: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor, ICM, Populus, ComRes, BMRB, YouGov, Survation, Opinium, Angus Reid, Ashcroft -30 -15 0 15 30 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Conservativevoteshare EOI% +/- +3 32% -3 Proximity to 32% Number of polls % of polls +/-3ppt 444/ 497 89% +/-2ppt 388/ 497 78% +/-1ppt 261/ 497 53% Vote share trendline: R2 = 0.0049 EOI impact on vote share: R2 = 0.0782 Economic Optimism Up, Conservative Vote Share Static “How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?” “Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next twelve months?”
  4. 4. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Professor Roger Mortimore Professor of Public Opinion and Political Analysis at Institute of Contemporary British History, King's College London
  5. 5. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London The Election: One Year Out Roger Mortimore Professor of Public Opinion and Political Analysis at Institute of Contemporary British History, King's College London
  6. 6. 6 The most unpredictable election in living memory?  What are the precedents? – The last time a government increased its vote share after more than two years in office - 1955 – (It has only happened twice since 1900) – The last time an opposition party was elected with an overall majority after just a single parliament out of office – 1931 – Successive hung Parliaments – only once (1910) since 1832
  7. 7. Marginal seats General election 2010 Overall majority 326 seats
  8. 8. Marginal seats General election 2010 306 258 57
  9. 9. Marginal seats To win in 2015 306 258 57 Conservatives need 20 gains Labour need 68 gains
  10. 10. Marginal seats To win in 2015 306 258 57 Conservatives need 1.9% swing Labour need 5.0% swing
  11. 11. 11 A 5% swing is big, but not impossibly big Source: House of Commons Library Swings at general elections 2.8 1.1 1.7 1.2 4.8 5.4 4.0 1.8 3.2 5.1 11.3 3.0 2.7 0.9 2.1 1.8 2.0 10.2 1945 1951 1959 1966 1974 (Feb) 1979 1987 1997 2005 Swing to Con Swing to Lab
  12. 12. 12 May change my mindDefinitely decided 81% 18% Increasing volatility of the voters Q Have you definitely decided to vote for xxx party or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote? Base: All British adults 18+ naming one of the three main parties Source: Ipsos MORI 62% 35% Don’t know 21-25 April 2005 54% 45% 25-27 March 1992 23 April 2010
  13. 13. 13 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% Voting intentions and turnout % of supporters “Absolutely certain to vote” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  14. 14. 14 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% Voting intentions and turnout % of supporters “Absolutely certain to vote” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  15. 15. How voters decide
  16. 16. 16 How voters decide Policies PartyLocal candidates Leaders Perceptions, not facts, make public opinion
  17. 17. 17 The political triangle: trends Q I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the … party. … If you had a total of ten points to allocate according to how important each of these was to you, how many points would you allocate to [each]? Base: British adults aged 18+ giving a voting intention (c.700 in each survey, 1,210 in February 2010) Source: Ipsos MORI LEADERS of the party PARTY as a whole POLICIES of the party
  18. 18. 18 The political triangle: trends Q I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the … party. … If you had a total of ten points to allocate according to how important each of these was to you, how many points would you allocate to [each]? Base: British adults aged 18+ giving a voting intention (c.700 in each survey, 1,210 in February 2010) Source: Ipsos MORI 44 47 41 42 46 35 33 34 32 31 21 20 23 24 24 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 LEADERS of the party PARTY as a whole POLICIES of the party Meanscoresoutof10convertedtopercentages
  19. 19. 19 The political triangle: trends Q I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the … party. … If you had a total of ten points to allocate according to how important each of these was to you, how many points would you allocate to [each]? Base: British adults aged 18+ giving a voting intention (c.700 in each survey, 1,210 in February 2010) Source: Ipsos MORI 44 47 41 42 46 40 38 35 33 34 32 31 39 38 21 20 23 24 24 21 22 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 LEADERS of the party PARTY as a whole POLICIES of the party Meanscoresoutof10convertedtopercentages
  20. 20. 20 The political triangle: trends Q I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the … party. … If you had a total of ten points to allocate according to how important each of these was to you, how many points would you allocate to [each]? Base: British adults aged 18+ giving a voting intention (c.700 in each survey, 1,210 in February 2010) Source: Ipsos MORI 44 47 41 42 46 40 38 41 35 33 34 32 31 39 38 26 21 20 23 24 24 21 22 33 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 LEADERS of the party PARTY as a whole POLICIES of the party Meanscoresoutof10convertedtopercentages
  21. 21. 21 …pointing out what was wrong with the policies and personalities in other parties …putting forward their own policies and personalities 80% 14% 1% Negative campaigning Which of the following comes closest to your views? Base: 1,018 adults aged 18+ across 57 marginal constituencies in Great Britain, 23-26 April 2010 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI 25% 64% 8% Don’t know Is being fought Should be fought The election should be fought by the parties/is being fought by the parties… Neither Both
  22. 22. 22 What the voters say they don’t like – negative campaigning
  23. 23. 23 Positive and negative perceptions - 2010 Base: 1,253 GB adults aged 18+, 18-20 April 2010 Source: Mortimore et al (2014), IJMR Q. In general would you describe each of the following politicians as trustworthy or not? EFFECT ON SATISFACTION WITH THE LEADER (Multivariate regression analysis) TrustworthyNot trustworthy Don’t know No significant difference Odds of being dissatisfied 3 times as high No significant difference Odds of being dissatisfied 8 times as high
  24. 24. And finally
  25. 25. 25 Government lead in the polls – one year out 2015 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 One year out
  26. 26. 26 Government lead in the polls – one year out 2015 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 One year out In 6 out of 9 elections since the War when one party had a narrow poll lead one year out,
  27. 27. 27 Government lead in the polls – one year out 2015 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 One year out In 6 out of 9 elections since the War when one party had a narrow poll lead one year out, THE OTHER PARTY WON
  28. 28. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Thank you Roger Mortimore Professor of Public Opinion and Political Analysis at Institute of Contemporary British History, King's College London
  29. 29. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Ben Page Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI
  30. 30. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London One Year from the Election… Ben Page Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori
  31. 31. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London 8% 10% 13% 14% 11% 14% 15% 24% 31% 33% 47% Defence/Foreign Housing Poverty/Inequality Inflation/Prices Pensions/Benefits Education/Schools Crime/Law & order NHS/Hospitals Unemployment Race/Immigration Economy/Economic situation The Issues… Q. What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? Base: 11,448 GB adults aged 18+, January-December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
  32. 32. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London 9% 10% 10% 12% 12% 13% 14% 23% 30% 39% 45% 8% 10% 13% 14% 11% 14% 15% 24% 31% 33% 47% Defence/Foreign Housing Poverty/Inequality Inflation/Prices Pensions/Benefits Education/Schools Crime/Law & order NHS/Hospitals Unemployment Race/Immigration Economy/Economic situation …in the marginals? Hello Nigel! Q. What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? Base: 11,448 GB adults aged 18+, January-December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index All GB Marginal seats
  33. 33. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jun-97 Sep-97 Dec-97 Mar-98 Jun-98 Sep-98 Dec-98 Mar-99 Jun-99 Sep-99 Dec-99 Mar-00 Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Economic Optimism reaches record levels… Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: c.1,000 British adults each month +28 -46 -56 -48 +23 Index(getbetterminusgetworse) -64 +35 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  34. 34. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London …but few think it has benefited them As you may know, according to official statistics the UK economy has grown by about 1.5% compared to the same time last year. What impact, if any, do you feel this growth in the economy has had on you and your family’s standard of living so far? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,019 British adults 18+, 9th- 11th November 2013 Don’t know 3% 11% 36% 48% 1% A great deal None at all 14% 84%
  35. 35. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London …leads to “none of the above”? % who think .... would be the same under a Labour/Conservative government Base: 1,003 British adults aged 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Labour government Conservative government The number of immigrants entering Britain 49% 52% The amount of tax you personally pay 43% 52% Living standards for you personally 56% 56%
  36. 36. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Which brings us to.....
  37. 37. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London UKIP: out of touch (for some) but touching a nerve Now thinking about UKIP, to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 27% 26% 16% 25% 10% 9% 24% 15% 16% 19% 7% 6% UKIP is a party that is out of touch with the modern world UKIP is highlighting important issues which other parties aren't taking seriously enough Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know 40% 34% 43% 51% Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014 Including 52% of Conservatives and 44% of Labour voters
  38. 38. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Targeting?
  39. 39. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Newark? Turnout = 71.5% 2010 GE 53.9% 22.3% 20.0% 3.8% Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP Other 2014 Europeans Turnout = 36.1% 31.2% 21.4%6.1% 32.4% 8.9% NB constituency profiles not exactly the same between parliamentary and European election boundaries
  40. 40. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Only 51%of voters for UKIP in the European elections say they are likely to vote for them in 2015 4,286 online interviews with people voting in European Parliament elections 22-23 May 2014, lordashcroftpolls.com Only 18%of people in key marginals say they have received campaign activity from UKIP....... ....although this rises to over 40%in: • Dudley North • Morley & Outwood • Great Grimsby • Halifax 26,025 telephone interviews in 26 marginal constituencies 31 March – 18 May 2014, lordashcroftpolls.com Will it last?
  41. 41. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Four challenges for the Conservatives
  42. 42. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London The system is massively against them (see Roger)1 Their vote share (see Bob)2
  43. 43. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Remain the MOST disliked party3
  44. 44. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Struggle outside the South 38% 23% 16% 16% 7%
  45. 45. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London The north is very red 28% 45% 10% 13% 4%
  46. 46. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Not a “women problem”, but a younger women problem “How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?”* *All certain to vote Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 27 29 37 23 26 35 32 35 31 45 45 35 14 11 8 11 12 11 13 13 17 7 7 11 18-34 35-54 55+ 18-34 35-54 55+ Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat UKIP Men Women Base 2,571British adults 18+ certain to vote, January – May 2014
  47. 47. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London The rise of UKIP 4
  48. 48. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London UKIP still picking up most from Conservatives – Pig wrestling any one? 2014 UKIP Vote Base: 300 UKIP supporters certain to vote, Jan – May 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 35% 11% 13% 22% 4% 15% 2010 Con (or 13% of 2010 Con vote) 2010 Labour (or 4% of 2010 Labour vote) 2010 LibDem (or 9% of 2010 LibDem vote) 2010 UKIP 2010 Other 2010 DNV/too young etc
  49. 49. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Three challenges for Labour
  50. 50. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Their vote share too.... 1
  51. 51. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London 0 10 20 30 40 50 Nov-03 Feb-04 May-04 Aug-04 Nov-04 Feb-05 May-05 Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Base: c. 1,000 British adults, all giving voting intention Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Labour’s lead in decline…. How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 34% 9% 31% 11% Labour 2012 average: 41% Labour 2014 average: 37%
  52. 52. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Credibility of Ed Miliband2
  53. 53. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Ed’s approval ratings are low – IDS and Hague low...... How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader HAGUE (1997-2001)DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003) MILIBAND (2010-2014) Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Netsatisfaction
  54. 54. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Credibility on the economy3
  55. 55. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London The Conservatives hold the mantle of economic credibility Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party? Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jun-99 Sep-99 Dec-99 Mar-00 Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
  56. 56. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London The Conservatives hold the mantle of economic credibility Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party? Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jun-99 Sep-99 Dec-99 Mar-00 Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP
  57. 57. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Lib Dems suffering – but will still have many more MPs than UKIP
  58. 58. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London …but are their supporters giving up? How important, if at all, is it to you personally who wins the next General Election? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014 0 20 40 60 Liberal Democrat UKIP Conservative Labour 24% 51% 51% 57% %Very important
  59. 59. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London 2015: The “War of the Weak”? In 1993: 83% identify with one of the three main parties Now: 67% - 2015 even more unpredictable than ever!
  60. 60. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Thank you Ben.page@ipsos.com +44 20 7347 3000 @benatipsosmori
  61. 61. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London James O’Shaughnessy Chief Policy Adviser at Portland Communications
  62. 62. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Miranda Green Editor of The Day
  63. 63. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Matthew Taylor Chief Executive of the Royal Society of Arts
  64. 64. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Q&A from audience
  65. 65. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Thank you…
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