Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor - February 2014
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor - February 2014

on

  • 4,732 views

With a little less than 200 days to go until Scotland goes to the polls in the independence referendum, our latest poll for STV News shows little change in public opinion compared to our last poll in ...

With a little less than 200 days to go until Scotland goes to the polls in the independence referendum, our latest poll for STV News shows little change in public opinion compared to our last poll in December 2013. Among those certain to vote in a referendum, around a third (32%) would vote ‘Yes’ if the vote was held now (down by 2 percentage points from December) while 57% would vote ‘No’ (unchanged from December) and 11% remain undecided.

Statistics

Views

Total Views
4,732
Views on SlideShare
1,223
Embed Views
3,509

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
6
Comments
0

6 Embeds 3,509

http://www.ipsos-mori.com 2933
https://www.arrse.co.uk 314
http://www.arrse.co.uk 227
https://twitter.com 32
http://newsblur.com 2
http://news.google.com 1

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor - February 2014 Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor - February 2014 Presentation Transcript

  • Paste cobrand logo here 1 Scottish Public Opinion Monitor February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
  • Paste cobrand logo here 2 Independence referendum © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
  • Paste cobrand logo here Referendum voting intention 3 Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? Certain to vote All voters Undecided 11% Undecided 16% Yes 32% No 55% No 57% Base: All (1,001); all certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Yes 29%
  • Paste cobrand logo here Referendum voting intention – recent trend 4 Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? 70% 60% No 50% 40% Yes 30% 20% Undecided 10% 0% Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
  • Paste cobrand logo here Voting intention excluding ‘don’t knows’ 5 Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? Certain to vote All voters Yes 36% Yes 35% No 65% No 64% Base: All (842); all certain to vote (691). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
  • Paste cobrand logo here Voting intention amongst those certain to vote and definitely decided how they will vote 6 Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? All definitely decided and certain to vote 80% No 70% 60% Yes 33% 50% 40% Yes 30% No 67% 20% 10% 0% Feb-13 Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided (572). Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14
  • Paste cobrand logo here 7 45% Scots who…  may not vote (22%)  will vote but are undecided (9%)  will vote but may change their vote (14%) © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
  • Paste cobrand logo here Floating voters 8 Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? All undecided voters Voters who may change their mind Undecided 33% Which way are you inclined to vote? 31% 23% Yes 39% No 29% Yes voters No voters Base: All giving a voting intention but may change their mind (215); all undecided (159). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
  • Paste cobrand logo here Long-term trend 9 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey) © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential 2003 2008 2013
  • Paste cobrand logo here Voting intention by gender 10 % voting Yes Men 50% 38% 27% 40% 30% 54% 59% 20% 10% 0% Yes No Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Women
  • Paste cobrand logo here Voting intention by age group 11 % voting Yes 16-24* 45% 33% 25-34 35-54 70% 16-24 51% 12% 25-34 60% 43% 50% 40% 30% 20% 30% 28% 10% 12% 35-54 57% 9% 55+ 63% 0% Yes No *Jan 2012 – May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential 55+
  • Paste cobrand logo here Voting intention by levels of deprivation 12 % voting Yes Most deprived areas 70% 60% 47% 50% 71% 40% 30% 20% 41% 20% Most deprived areas 10% Least deprived areas 0% Yes No Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Least deprived areas
  • Paste cobrand logo here Voting intention by party support 13 % voting Yes SNP 76% 80% 11% 76% 70% 13% 60% 14% 50% 40% 30% 20% 94% 13% 5% 10% 82% 0% Yes No Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Lab Con Lib Dem
  • Paste cobrand logo here 14 Currency © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
  • Paste cobrand logo here Currency 15 As you may know, the Scottish Government has proposed that an independent Scotland would continue to use the pound within a currency union with the rest of the UK. The three main UK-wide political parties recently announced that they would not enter into a currency union with an independent Scotland. Based on this announcement, what impact, if any will this have on how you plan to vote in the referendum? Will you be more likely to vote ‘Yes’, more likely to vote ‘No’ or will it make no difference? 16% 13% All 56% 30% Undecided 44% voters More likely to vote Yes More likely to vote No Make no difference Don't know 34% 14% 47% Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential May change mind 37%
  • Paste cobrand logo here Technical details 16 • This presents the topline results from Scotland • Results are based on a survey of 1,001 respondents (adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone • Fieldwork dates: 20th– 25th February 2014 • Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series data • Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories • Results are based on all respondents (1,001) unless otherwise stated © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
  • Paste cobrand logo here 17 Thank you mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269 christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential @IpsosMORIScot