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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
December 2013

© Ipsos MORI

Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIF...
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2

Independence referendum

© Ipsos MORI

Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | I...
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Referendum voting intention

3

Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?

Certain to vote
Al...
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Referendum voting intention – recent trend

4

Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes
...
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Voting intention excluding ‘don’t knows’

5

Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?

Certa...
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Voting intention amongst those certain to vote and
definitely decided how they will vote

6

Q. S...
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Floating voters

7

Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
All undecided – inclined to vot...
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Support for independence – long-term trend

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Support for independence (%)

60

50

Scottish Par...
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Voting intention by gender

9

% voting Yes
Men
50%

41%

52%

27%
40%

61%

30%

20%

10%

40%

...
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Voting intention by age group

10

% voting Yes
34%

16-24*

30%

16-24

11%

25-34

35-54

70%

...
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Voting intention by levels of deprivation

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% voting Yes
Most deprived areas
70%
60%

47%

68%...
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Voting intention by party support

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% voting Yes
SNP
74%

80%

18%
9%

Lab

73%

70%
60%

15%
...
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Impact of the ‘White Paper’

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Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version ...
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Impact of the white paper

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As you may know the Scottish Govt recently published its White Pap...
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Technical details

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• This presents the topline results from Scotland
• Results are based on a...
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Thank you
mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269
christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264
...
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Ipsos MORI: Scottish Public Opinion Monitor: December 2013

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Support for independence bounces back: As we enter the final nine months of campaigning before next year’s referendum, our latest poll for STV News will provide a boost for those arguing in favour of Scotland becoming an independent country. Among those certain to vote in next year’s referendum, 34% would vote ‘Yes’ if the referendum were held now (up by three percentage points from September 2013) while 57% would vote ‘No’ (down two points) and 10% are undecided.

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Ipsos MORI: Scottish Public Opinion Monitor: December 2013

  1. 1. Paste cobrand logo here 1 Scottish Public Opinion Monitor December 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
  2. 2. Paste cobrand logo here 2 Independence referendum © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
  3. 3. Paste cobrand logo here Referendum voting intention 3 Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? Certain to vote All voters Undecided Undecided 10% Yes 14% 34% 31% ‘Yes’ Change since September +3 ‘Yes’ Change since 55% 57% No Yes No Base: All = 1,006; all certain to vote = 803. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
  4. 4. Paste cobrand logo here Referendum voting intention – recent trend 4 Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes 70% No Undecided 60% 57% 50% 40% 34% 30% 20% 10% Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Dec-13 Nov-13 Oct-13 Sep-13 Aug-13 Jul-13 Jun-13 May-13 Apr-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12 Nov-12 Oct-12 Sep-12 Aug-12 Jul-12 Jun-12 May-12 Apr-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 0% 10%
  5. 5. Paste cobrand logo here Voting intention excluding ‘don’t knows’ 5 Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? Certain to vote All voters Yes Yes 36% 37% 64% 63% No No Base: All = 864; all certain to vote = 727. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
  6. 6. Paste cobrand logo here Voting intention amongst those certain to vote and definitely decided how they will vote 6 Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes All definitely decided and certain to vote No 80% Yes 63% Yes Change since September +4 63% 60% 37% No 40% 37% 20% 0% Feb-13 Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided (580). Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13
  7. 7. Paste cobrand logo here Floating voters 7 Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? All undecided – inclined to vote All giving a voting intention but may change their mind Undecided 27% Yes 37% 38% 63% No 34% No Base: All giving a voting intention but may change their mind (203); all undecided (138). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Yes
  8. 8. Paste cobrand logo here Support for independence – long-term trend 8 Support for independence (%) 60 50 Scottish Parliament opens Introduction of the poll tax in Scotland Devolution referendum SNP form majority government 40 30 20 SNP form minority government Edinburgh Agreement signed 10 Devolution referendum Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey) © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 0
  9. 9. Paste cobrand logo here Voting intention by gender 9 % voting Yes Men 50% 41% 52% 27% 40% 61% 30% 20% 10% 40% 0% Yes No Base: All certain to vote = 803. Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Women
  10. 10. Paste cobrand logo here Voting intention by age group 10 % voting Yes 34% 16-24* 30% 16-24 11% 25-34 35-54 70% 25-34 60% 59% 56% 50% 40% 30% 20% 40% 29% 10% 10% 35-54 50% 9% 55+ 0% 62% Yes No *Jan 2012 – May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds Base: All certain to vote = 803. Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential 55+
  11. 11. Paste cobrand logo here Voting intention by levels of deprivation 11 % voting Yes Most deprived areas 70% 60% 47% 68% 50% 40% 30% 45% 26% 20% 10% Most deprived areas Least deprived areas 0% Yes No Base: All certain to vote = 803. Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Least deprived areas
  12. 12. Paste cobrand logo here Voting intention by party support 12 % voting Yes SNP 74% 80% 18% 9% Lab 73% 70% 60% 15% 50% 40% 30% 20% 96% 3% 6% 91% 10% 0% Yes No Base: All certain to vote = 803. Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Con Lib Dem
  13. 13. Paste cobrand logo here 13 Impact of the ‘White Paper’ © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
  14. 14. Paste cobrand logo here Impact of the white paper 14 As you may know the Scottish Govt recently published its White Paper, ‘Scotland’s Future’, which outlines their plans for an independent Scotland. Based on what you may have read, seen or heard, what impact, if any, will this have on how you plan to vote in the referendum? 9% 14% More likely to vote Yes 9% 18% All 51% 19% Undecided voters More likely to vote No 45% Make no difference 5% 20% Haven't read, seen or heard anything about it Don't know 17% Base: All. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential 22% May change mind 43% © Ipsos MORI 12% 13%
  15. 15. Paste cobrand logo here Technical details 15 • This presents the topline results from Scotland • Results are based on a survey of 1,006 respondents (adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone • Fieldwork dates: 29th November – 5th December 2013 • Data are weighted by: age, sex and working status using census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series data • Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories • Results are based on all respondents (1,006) unless otherwise stated © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
  16. 16. Paste cobrand logo here 16 Thank you mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269 christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential @IpsosMORIScot
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