Ipsos MORI Scottish Independence Referendum June 2014

5,563 views
5,464 views

Published on

With the official campaigns for the independence referendum now underway, Ipsos MORI's latest poll for STV News shows that ‘Yes’ has gained ground since our last poll in February 2014.

Published in: News & Politics
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
5,563
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
4,331
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
8
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Ipsos MORI Scottish Independence Referendum June 2014

  1. 1. 1 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor June 2014
  2. 2. 2 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? Referendum voting intention Base: All (1,003); all certain to vote (842). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June 2014 Yes 34% No 52% Undecided 13% All voters Yes 36% No 54% Undecided 10% Certain to vote
  3. 3. 3 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? Referendum voting intention – recent trend Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 No Yes Undecided
  4. 4. 4 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? Voting intention excluding undecided Base: All excluding undecided (881); all certain to vote excluding undecided (766). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June 2014 Yes 40% No 60% All voters Yes 40% No 60% Certain to vote
  5. 5. 5 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? Referendum voting intention excluding undecided – recent trend Base: All certain to vote excluding undecided. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 No Yes
  6. 6. 6 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? Voting intention amongst those certain to vote and definitely decided how they will vote Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided (660). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June 2014 Yes 40% No 60% All definitely decided and certain to vote 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14 No Yes
  7. 7. 7 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Q. And, how likely would you be to vote in an immediate referendum, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and 1 that you would be absolutely certain NOT to vote? Increase in self-reported turnout Base: All. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 55+ All 16-24 % Absolutely certain to vote
  8. 8. 8 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI 37% Scots who…  may not vote (18%)  will vote but are undecided (8%)  will vote but may change their vote (11%)
  9. 9. 9 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI 18% 19% 17% 82% 81% 83% All Yes voters No voters Definitely decided May change mind Q. (To all giving a voting intention) Have you definitely decided to vote in this way or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote? Q. (To all undecided voters) Which way are you most inclined to vote? Definitely decided or might you change your mind? Base: All giving a voting intention (881). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June 2014 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 % Definitely decided No Yes
  10. 10. 10 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Q. (To all giving a voting intention) Have you definitely decided to vote in this way or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote? Q. (To all undecided voters) Which way are you most inclined to vote? Which way are undecided voters leaning? Base: All undecided (122). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June 2014 Yes 23% No 32% Undecided 45% All undecided voters
  11. 11. 11 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Long-term trend of support for independence Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
  12. 12. 12 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Voting intention by gender Base: All certain to vote (842). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June 2014 46% 46% Yes No 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Men Women % voting Yes 28% 61%
  13. 13. 13 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI 38% 51% 11% Voting intention by age group Base: All certain to vote (842). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June 2014 Yes No 45% 44% 39% 51% 9% 31% 61% 9% 16-24 25-34 35-54 55+ 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 16-24* 25-34 35-54 55+ *Jan 2012 – May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds % voting Yes
  14. 14. 14 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Voting intention by levels of deprivation Base: All certain to vote (842). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June 2014 41% 51% 33% 59% Most deprived areas Least deprived areas Yes No 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Most deprived areas Least deprived areas % voting Yes
  15. 15. 15 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI 96% 10% 85%6% Voting intention by party support Base: All certain to vote (842). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June 2014 Yes No 79% 10% 8% 81% 11% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% SNP Lab Con Lib Dem % voting Yes
  16. 16. 16 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Technical details • This presents the topline results from Scotland • Results are based on a survey of 1,003 respondents (adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone • Fieldwork dates: 26th May – 1st June 2014 • Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series data • Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories • Results are based on all respondents (1,003) unless otherwise stated
  17. 17. 17 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Thank you mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269 christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264 @IpsosMORIScot

×