Ipsos MORI Scotland Indy Rock 'n' Roll
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Ipsos MORI Scotland Indy Rock 'n' Roll

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With 400 days until the referendum on Scotland’s constitutional future, Ipsos MORI teamed up with journalist and broadcaster Steve Richards to look at the state of play in the polls and what ‘game ...

With 400 days until the referendum on Scotland’s constitutional future, Ipsos MORI teamed up with journalist and broadcaster Steve Richards to look at the state of play in the polls and what ‘game changers’ might lie ahead in the year ahead. Mark Diffley looked at the number and profile of undecided voters and the information they are looking for ahead of the vote. Steve looked at the referendum from a Westminster perspective and in light of recent referendum experience across the UK.

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    Ipsos MORI Scotland Indy Rock 'n' Roll Ipsos MORI Scotland Indy Rock 'n' Roll Presentation Transcript

    • 1 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Welcome
    • 2 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI #IndyRocknRoll
    • 3 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Who are the referendum swing voters? Mark Diffley, Ipsos MORI Scotland 14 August 2013
    • 4 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI A ‘Yes’ vote is a considerable challenge Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Supportforindependence(%) Introduction of the poll tax in Scotland Devolution referendum Scottish Parliament opens Devolution referendum SNP form minority government SNP form majority government Edinburgh Agreement signed
    • 5 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults aged 18+ each wave. 60% 57% 50% 55% 58% 55% 59% 35% 38% 39% 35% 30% 34% 31% Yes No January 2012 February 2013 June 2012 October 2012 May 2013 August 2011 December 2011 The current state of play…
    • 6 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? Base: All certain to vote = 74% (3,704). Data collected among quarterly among c1,000 Scottish adults 18+ Jan 2012 – May 2013 49% 61% 51% 52% 55% 64% 15% 79% 94% 84% 41% 27% 41% 35% 35% 24% 72% 11% 4% 10% Yes No Men Women Gen. Y Gen. X Baby Boomers Pre- war SNP Labour Cons. Lib Dem … and how it breaks down
    • 7 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI % Yes <25% 25%>35% 35%>50% >50% Mapping the Yes vote
    • 8 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI
    • 9 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Q. Should Scotland be an independent country? 33% 67% Yes No May 2013 Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided how they will vote (558). Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 18+ It’s 2:1 Against among committed and decided voters but…
    • 10 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI 56%are certain to vote and have decided how they will vote
    • 11 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI 44% Scots who…  may not vote (25%)  will vote but are undecided (8%)  will vote but may change their vote (11%)
    • 12 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Turnout may actually be quite high 1-4 (17%) 5-7 (38%) 8-9 (45%)
    • 13 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Those who may not vote are more likely to be… 45%of undecided (potential) voters Generation Y (40%) Women (27%) More deprived areas (27%) Labour supporters (29%)
    • 14 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI • MAP(S) % May not vote >30% 25%>30% <25%
    • 15 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Those who will vote but are undecided are more likely to be… Women (12%) SNP supporters (14%) More Scottish than British (15%)
    • 16 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Those who will vote but may change their vote are more likely to be… Generation Y (22%) Generation X (18%) More affluent (18%) More Scottish than British (24%)
    • 17 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI As well as… SNP supporters (22%) Yes voters (20%)
    • 18 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Engaging uncertain and potential voters
    • 19 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Uncertain voters see the debate like this...
    • 20 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI They want more information about…
    • 21 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Conclusion… Engagement Events Economy Election
    • Paste co- brand logo here Paste co- brand logo here Paste co- brand logo here Paste co- brand logo here Thank you mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269 christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264 This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006.© Ipsos MORI @IpsosMORIScot
    • 23 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI Coming soon... www.ipsos-mori.com/indyref2014
    • 24 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential© Ipsos MORI …but happening now