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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: May 2014 - Europe
 

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: May 2014 - Europe

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Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor for May reveals a large shift in public opinion towards staying in the European Union over the last two years. More than half of Britons (54%) would vote to stay in ...

Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor for May reveals a large shift in public opinion towards staying in the European Union over the last two years. More than half of Britons (54%) would vote to stay in the European Union in a referendum, with 37% saying they would vote to leave. This is a turnaround since we last asked the question in November 2012, prior to David Cameron’s pledge to provide a referendum were the Conservatives to win power in next year’s general election, when 44% said they would vote to stay in the EU, with 48% saying they would vote to get out.

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    Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: May 2014 - Europe Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: May 2014 - Europe Presentation Transcript

    • POLITICAL MONITOR: Europe Section May 2014 Contacts: Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com 020 7347 3000
    • European Elections Britain and the European Union Party identification
    • 3 If there were a referendum now on whether Britain should stay in or get out of the European Union, how would you vote? Stay in or get out of the European Union? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014 54% Stay in 37% Get out 10% Don’t know
    • 4 Stay in or get out of the European Union? Trend If there were a referendum now on whether Britain should stay in or get out of the European Union, how would you vote? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014 26% 60% 63% 52% 49% 53% 51% 41% 54% 65% 29% 27% 36% 35% 32% 39% 49% 37% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Sep-77 May-78 Jan-79 Sep-79 May-80 Jan-81 Sep-81 May-82 Jan-83 Sep-83 May-84 Jan-85 Sep-85 May-86 Jan-87 Sep-87 May-88 Jan-89 Sep-89 May-90 Jan-91 Sep-91 May-92 Jan-93 Sep-93 May-94 Jan-95 Sep-95 May-96 Jan-97 Sep-97 May-98 Jan-99 Sep-99 May-00 Jan-01 Sep-01 May-02 Jan-03 Sep-03 May-04 Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Stay in Get out
    • 5 Britain’s future role in Europe Which of these options best describes your own preference for Britain’s future role in Europe? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 20% 23% 19% 30% 28% 28% 32% 29% 24% 13% 13% 24% Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014 Britain leaving the European Union altogether Britain’s relationship with Europe remaining broadly the same as at present Britain returning to being part on economic community, without political links Britain and other member states of the European Union moving towards closer political and economic integration Apr ‘96 Nov ‘12 May ‘14 Apr ‘96 Nov ‘12 May ‘14 Apr ‘96 Nov ‘12 May ‘14 Apr ‘96 Nov ‘12 May ‘14
    • 6 Party identification Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP, or what? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 5% 9% 31% 27% UKIP Liberal Democract Labour Conservative Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014
    • 7 Likelihood of voting for a party in the European & 2015 General Elections How likely or unlikely are you personally to vote for… in this month’s European/ next year’s General election? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Conservatives Labour Liberal Democrats UKIP May’s European Election 2015’s General Election May’s European Election 2015’s General Election May’s European Election 2015’s General Election May’s European Election 2015’s General Election I’m certain to vote for them 11% 13% 14% 14% 3% 2% 9% 4% I probably will vote for them, but I might change my mind 13% 19% 16% 18% 10% 13% 8% 10% I probably won’t vote for them, but I would consider it 14% 18% 15% 21% 15% 20% 11% 13% I am certain not to vote for them 57% 46% 51% 43% 68% 62% 67% 68% Don’t know 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014
    • 8 The utility of voting Liberal Democrat & UKIP Thinking about next year’s general election, on balance do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 5% 41% 33% 6% 16% 21% 3% 7% 11% 14% 19% 20% 69% 14% 14% 3% 2% 2% Voting for anyone at in a general election is a wasted vote A vote for UKIP in a General election is a wasted vote A vote for the Liberal Democrats in a General election is a wasted vote Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know 34%54% 33%57% 11% 83% Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014
    • 9 Perceptions of UKIP Now thinking about UKIP, to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 26% 27% 25% 16% 9% 10% 15% 24% 19% 16% 6% 7% UKIP is highlighting important issues which other parties aren't taking seriously enough UKIP is a party that is out of touch with the modern world Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know 40% 34% 43% 51% Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014