Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: May 2014
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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: May 2014

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Ipsos MORI’s Economic Optimism Index is at its highest ever point in its 36-year history, according to May’s Ipsos MORI Political Monitor. More than half of Britons – 53% – think the UK economy......

Ipsos MORI’s Economic Optimism Index is at its highest ever point in its 36-year history, according to May’s Ipsos MORI Political Monitor. More than half of Britons – 53% – think the UK economy will improve over the next 12 months, compared with 18% who think it will get worse and 25% saying it will stay the same. This gives an Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index score (% improve minus % get worse) of +35, the highest recorded since it began in April 1978. Three quarters of Conservative and Liberal Democrat supporters think the economy will get better (77% and 75% respectively), as do four in ten Labour (41%) and UKIP supporters (39%).

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  • 1. POLITICAL MONITOR May 2014 Contacts: Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com 020 7347 3000
  • 2. Voting Intentions
  • 3. 3 Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those “certain to vote” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Conservative lead = -2 All giving a voting intention: 81% How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 32% 34% 10% 12% 12% Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th -12th May 2014, all certain to vote = 589 Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP Other All certain to vote: 59% Conservative lead = -3 31% 34% 9% 11% 15%
  • 4. 4 0 10 20 30 40 50 Nov-03 Feb-04 May-04 Aug-04 Nov-04 Feb-05 May-05 Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 34% Howard elected (Nov 03) 2005 General Election Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (Jun 07) 9% 31% 2010 General Election Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Voting Intentions November ‘03 – May ‘14 (all certain to vote) How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 11%
  • 5. Satisfaction with the Coalition and Party Leaders
  • 6. 6 52 66 54 46 57 39 23 31 35 35 Net Satisfaction Swing from April 2014 -13 +2.5 -43 -4.5 -23 +1.5 -11 -7.5 -22 +1.5 Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Satisfaction with leaders and the Government How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister /Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP? David Cameron The Government Nick Clegg Ed Miliband % Satisfied% Dissatisfied Nigel Farage Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • 7. 7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 23% %satisfied Cameron Clegg Clegg elected (Jan 08) General Election 39% Miliband 31% Brown Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ? Satisfaction with Party leaders November ‘07 – May ‘14 Farage 35%
  • 8. 8 Netsatisfaction How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister? Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers THATCHER BLAIR MAJOR BROWN CAMERON Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Prime Minister Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
  • 9. 9 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor David Cameron (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Satisfied Dissatisfied May 2006 – May 2014May 2014 SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied Net = -13 39% 52% 8% Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
  • 10. 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Base: 246 Conservative supporters 18+, 10th -12th May 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Satisfied Dissatisfied David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? 84% 14% 3% Satisfied Don’t know Dissatisfied Net = +70 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone May 2006 – May 2014May 2014
  • 11. 11 Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003) Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2014) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? CAMERON (2005-2010) BLAIR (1994-1997) MILIBAND (2010-2014) HOWARD (2003-2005) Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Netsatisfaction
  • 12. 12 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Ed Miliband (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th -12th May 2014 Dissatisfied Satisfied November 2010 – May 2014May 2014 SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied 31% 54% 15% Net = -23
  • 13. 13 56%34% 10% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Base: 267 Labour supporters 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014 Ed Miliband (satisfaction among Labour supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? May 2014 Net = +22 SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Dissatisfied Satisfied November 2010 – May 2014
  • 14. 14 Nick Clegg (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th -12th May 2014 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Dissatisfied Satisfied May 2008 – May 2014May 2014 23% 66% 11% SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied Net = -43
  • 15. 15 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Base: 84 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 10th -12th May 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only Dissatisfied Satisfied May 2014 52%42% 6% Satisfied Don’t know Dissatisfied Net = +10 Nick Clegg (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? May 2008 – May 2014 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • 16. 16 35% 46% 19% Nigel Farage (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK Independence Party? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th -12th May 2014 All Satisfied Don’t know Dissatisfied Net = -11 March 2013 – May 2014 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Dissatisfied Satisfied
  • 17. 17 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK Independence Party? Nigel Farage (satisfaction among UKIP supporters) Base: 93 UKIP supporters, 10th -12th May 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only 89% 5% 6% UKIP supporters Satisfied Don’t know Dissatisfied Net = +84 March 2013 – May 2014 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Dissatisfied Satisfied
  • 18. The economy
  • 19. 19 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Nov-04 Feb-05 May-05 Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Economic Optimism Index Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014 Improve Stay the same Get worseImprove Don’t know Get worse Stay the same May 2014 EOI = +35 53% 25% 18% 4%
  • 20. 20 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Aug-97 Nov-97 Feb-98 May-98 Aug-98 Nov-98 Feb-99 May-99 Aug-99 Nov-99 Feb-00 May-00 Aug-00 Nov-00 Feb-01 May-01 Aug-01 Nov-01 Feb-02 May-02 Aug-02 Nov-02 Feb-03 May-03 Aug-03 Nov-03 Feb-04 May-04 Aug-04 Nov-04 Feb-05 May-05 Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: c.1,000 British adults each month +17 -46 -56 -48 +23 The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index Index(getbetterminusgetworse) -64 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor +35