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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: March 2014
 

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: March 2014

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This month’s Ipsos MORI Political Monitor shows the Conservatives continuing to lead Labour on managing the economy, although they are neck-and-neck with regard to taxation policy and Labour lead on ...

This month’s Ipsos MORI Political Monitor shows the Conservatives continuing to lead Labour on managing the economy, although they are neck-and-neck with regard to taxation policy and Labour lead on unemployment policy. One in three (35%) think the Conservatives have the best policies on managing the economy, compared with 22% for Labour; Labour lead the Conservatives on unemployment by 32% to 27%, and the two are almost level on taxation with Labour supported by 27% and the Conservatives on 25%.

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    Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: March 2014 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: March 2014 Presentation Transcript

    • POLITICAL MONITOR March 2014 Contacts: Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com 020 7347 3000
    • Voting Intentions
    • 3 Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those “certain to vote” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Conservative lead = -8 All giving a voting intention: 79% How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 29% 37% 12% 11% 11% Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 8th -12th March 2014, all certain to vote = 582 Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP Other All certain to vote: 53% Conservative lead = -3 32% 35% 13% 11% 9%
    • 4 0 10 20 30 40 50 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 35% Howard elected (Nov 03) 2005 General Election Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (Jun 07) 13% 32% 2010 General Election Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Voting Intentions September ‘03 – March ‘14 (all certain to vote) How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 11%
    • Satisfaction with the Coalition and Party Leaders
    • 6 56 60 53 41 59 37 29 32 31 33 Net satisfaction Swing from February 2014 -19 -0.5 -31 +4 -21 n/c -10 n/c -26 +0.5 Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 8th – 12th March 2014. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Satisfaction with leaders and the Government How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister /Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP? David Cameron The Government Nick Clegg Ed Miliband % Satisfied% Dissatisfied Nigel Farage Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
    • 7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 29% %satisfied Cameron Clegg Campbell Clegg elected (Jan 08) General Election 37% Miliband 32% Brown Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ? Satisfaction with Party leaders September ‘07 – March ‘14 Farage 31%
    • 8 Netsatisfaction How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister? Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers THATCHER BLAIR MAJOR BROWN CAMERON Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Prime Minister Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
    • 9 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor David Cameron (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Satisfied Dissatisfied March 2006 – March 2014March 2014 SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied Net = -19 37% 56% 8% Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 8th – 12th March 2014
    • 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Base: 238 Conservative supporters 18+, 8th -12th March 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Satisfied Dissatisfied David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? 81% 18% 2% Satisfied Don’t know Dissatisfied Net = +63 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone March 2006 – March 2014March 2014
    • 11 Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003) Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2014) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? CAMERON (2005-2010) BLAIR (1994-1997) MILIBAND (2010-2014) HOWARD (2003-2005) Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Netsatisfaction
    • 12 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Ed Miliband (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 8th -12th March 2014 Dissatisfied Satisfied October 2010 – March 2014March 2014 SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied 32% 53% 15% Net = -21
    • 13 51% 37% 12% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Base: 285 Labour supporters 18+, 8th – 12th March 2014 Ed Miliband (satisfaction among Labour supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? March 2014 Net = +14 SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Dissatisfied Satisfied October 2010 – March 2014
    • 14 Nick Clegg (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 8th -12th March 2014 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Dissatisfied Satisfied March 2008 – March 2014March 2014 29% 60% 12% SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied Net = -31
    • 15 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Base: 97 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 8th -12th March 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only Dissatisfied Satisfied March 2014 62% 30% 8% Satisfied Don’t know Dissatisfied Net = +32 Nick Clegg (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? March 2008 – March 2014 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
    • 16 31% 41% 28% Nigel Farage (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK Independence Party? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 95 UKIP supporters, 8th -12th March 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only All Satisfied Don’t know Dissatisfied 82% 11% 7% UKIP supporters Satisfied Don’t know Dissatisfied Net = -10 Net = +71
    • The economy
    • 18 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Economic Optimism Index Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 8th – 12th March 2014 Improve Stay the same Get worseImprove Don’t know Get worse Stay the same March 2014 EOI = +23 48% 24% 25% 3%
    • 19 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jun-97 Sep-97 Dec-97 Mar-98 Jun-98 Sep-98 Dec-98 Mar-99 Jun-99 Sep-99 Dec-99 Mar-00 Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: c.1,000 British adults each month +28 -46 -56 -48 +23 The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index Index(getbetterminusgetworse) -64 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor +23
    • Parties’ policies on the economy
    • 21 1% 2% 2% 12% 5% 6% 27% 32% 22% 25% 27% 35% Taxation Unemployment Managing the economy Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party UKIP Which party has the best policies on … ? +13 -5 -2 Conservative lead over Labour Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 8th – 12th March 2014
    • 22 Which party has the best policies on managing the economy? Trend Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each time Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP 2 20 10 20 30 40 50 Jun-99 Sep-99 Dec-99 Mar-00 Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 2010 General Election 2005 General Election 2001 General Election 22% 6% 35% 2%
    • 23 Which party has the best policies on unemployment? Trend Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each time Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP 20 10 20 30 40 50 Jun-99 Sep-99 Dec-99 Mar-00 Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 2010 General Election 2005 General Election 2001 General Election 32% 5% 27% 2%
    • 24 Which party has the best policies on taxation? Trend Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each time Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP 10 10 20 30 40 50 Jun-99 Sep-99 Dec-99 Mar-00 Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 2010 General Election 2005 General Election 2001 General Election 27% 12% 25% 1%
    • Balls vs Osborne Competence of the government
    • 26 Osborne vs. Balls - trend 35 36 29 34 35 36 40 38 36 35 37 34 38 35 29 33 0 10 20 30 40 50 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each time Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Who do you think would make the most capable Chancellor, the Conservatives’ George Osborne or Labour’s Ed Balls? Ed Balls George Osborne
    • 27 Is the government doing a good job? Since it was elected in May 2010, do you think that the government has done a good job or a bad job at…? 44 15 35 32 47 36 48 77 56 60 46 55 % Good job %Bad job Keeping unemployment down Managing the economy Handling taxation and public expenditure March 2014 October 2011 March 2014 October 2011 March 2014 October 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 8th – 12th March 2014
    • 28 Is the government doing a good job at raising living standards? Since it was elected in May 2010, do you think that the government has done a good job or a bad job at…? 30 19 73 59 73 12 % Good job %Bad job Improving your standard of living Improving the standard of living for poor people Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Improving the standard of living for rich people Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 8th – 12th March 2014
    • 29 Who deserves the credit for a growing economy? As you may know, according to official statistics the UK economy grew by 1.8% in 2013. Which one or two of the following do you think deserve most credit for the growth in the UK economy? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 4% 7% 7% 15% 20% 25% 37% The Liberal Democrats The previous Labour government The European Union The Conservatives The Coalition Government overall The Bank of England The state of the global economy Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 8th – 12th March 2014
    • 30 Who deserves the credit for raising the income tax threshold? As you may know, the amount people earn before they pay income tax has risen from £6,475 in 2010 to £10,000 from this April. Who, if anyone, do you think deserves most credit for this policy, the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 33% 45% Conservatives Liberal Democrats Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 8th – 12th March 2014