Ipsos MORI Political Monitor January 2014

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The latest polling from Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor reveals the majority of Britons think a hung parliament is bad for the country, both in regard to the 2010 result and looking forward to 2015. But despite this opposition to coalitions, half expect to see another coalition in 2015; 51% believe it is very/fairly likely, with 45% saying it is very/fairly unlikely.

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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor January 2014

  1. 1. POLITICAL MONITOR January 2014 Contacts: Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com Tomasz.Mludzinski@ipsos.com 020 7347 3000
  2. 2. Voting Intentions
  3. 3. Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those “certain to vote” 3 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? All giving a voting intention: 81% All certain to vote: 56% 7% 9% Labour 11% 32% Conservative Lib Dem 11% 30% 13% 11% UKIP Other 37% Conservative lead = -5 Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th -14h January 2014, all certain to vote = 606 39% Conservative lead = -9 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  4. 4. Voting Intentions October ‘03 – January ‘14 (all certain to vote) 4 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 2005 Howard elected General Brown as PM (Jun 07) (Nov 03) Election Cameron elected 50 (Dec 05) 2010 General Election 40 39% 30 30% 20 13% 11% 10 Jan-14 Oct-13 Jul-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 Oct-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Oct-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Oct-08 Jul-08 Apr-08 Jan-08 Oct-07 Jul-07 Apr-07 Jan-07 Oct-06 Jul-06 Apr-06 Jan-06 Oct-05 Jul-05 Apr-05 Jan-05 Oct-04 Jul-04 Apr-04 Jan-04 Oct-03 0 Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  5. 5. Satisfaction with the Coalition and Party Leaders
  6. 6. Satisfaction with leaders and the Government 6 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister /Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP? Swing from Net December % Dissatisfied % Satisfied satisfaction 2013 David Cameron Nick Clegg Ed Miliband 53 37 59 -0.5 -28 +0.5 31 53 -14 29 57 Nigel Farage The Government 39 -22 +1.5 -2 +1.5 -28 -1.5 35 31 Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th - 14th January 2014. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  7. 7. Jan-14 Dec-13 Nov-13 Oct-13 Sep-13 Aug-13 Jul-13 Jun-13 May-13 Apr-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12 Nov-12 Oct-12 Sep-12 Aug-12 Jul-12 Jun-12 May-12 Apr-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Jul-11 Jun-11 May-11 Apr-11 Mar-11 Feb-11 Jan-11 Dec-10 Nov-10 Oct-10 Sep-10 Aug-10 Jul-10 Jun-10 May-10 Apr-10 Mar-10 Feb-10 Jan-10 Dec-09 Nov-09 Oct-09 Sep-09 Aug-09 Jul-09 Jun-09 May-09 Apr-09 Mar-09 Feb-09 Jan-09 Dec-08 Nov-08 Oct-08 Sep-08 Aug-08 Jul-08 Jun-08 May-08 Apr-08 Mar-08 Feb-08 Jan-08 Dec-07 Nov-07 Oct-07 Sep-07 Aug-07 0 Campbell 10 Brown Cameron 50 30 Miliband Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 39% 35% 31% 29% Farage 40 % satisfied 20 General Election Clegg elected (Jan 08) 70 7 Satisfaction with Party leaders August ‘07 – January ‘14 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ? 60 Clegg
  8. 8. Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers 8 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister? Net satisfaction CAMERON Number of months from becoming Prime Minister THATCHER BROWN Base: c.1,000 British adults each month MAJOR BLAIR Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  9. 9. David Cameron (satisfaction) 9 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? January 2006 – January 2014 January 2014 Don’t know Satisfied 70 8% Dissatisfied 60 50 39% 40 30 Satisfied 20 53% 10 0 Dissatisfied Net = -14 Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th January 2014 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  10. 10. David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters) 10 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? January 2006 – January 2014 January 2014 Don’t know 5% Satisfied Dissatisfied 16% 79% Net = +63 Base: 261 Conservative supporters 18+, 11th -14th January 2014 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Satisfied Dissatisfied Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  11. 11. Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2014) 11 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? BLAIR (1994-1997) Net satisfaction CAMERON (2005-2010) HOWARD (2003-2005) Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader MILIBAND (2010-2014) HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003) Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  12. 12. Ed Miliband (satisfaction) 12 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? January 2014 October 2010 – January 2014 Satisfied Don’t know 70 16% Dissatisfied 60 31% 50 40 30 20 Satisfied 10 0 53% Dissatisfied Net = -22 Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th-14th January 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  13. 13. Ed Miliband (satisfaction among Labour supporters) 13 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? January 2014 October 2010 – January 2014 Satisfied Don’t know 70 10% 60 Satisfied 50 40 50% 30 20 40% Dissatisfied 10 0 Dissatisfied Net = +10 Base: 326 Labour supporters 18+, 11th – 14th January 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  14. 14. Nick Clegg (satisfaction) 14 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? January 2014 Don’t know January 2008 – January 2014 Satisfied 14% 70 Dissatisfied 60 29% 50 40 30 20 10 Satisfied 0 57% Dissatisfied Net = -28 Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th-14th January 2014 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  15. 15. Nick Clegg (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters) 15 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? January 2014 Don’t know 35% 10% January 2008 – January 2014 Satisfied 55% 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Satisfied Dissatisfied Dissatisfied Net = +20 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Base: 102 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 11 th-14th January 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  16. 16. Nigel Farage (satisfaction) 16 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK Independence Party? All UKIP supporters Satisfied Don’t know Don’t know Dissatisfied Satisfied 1% 5% 27% 35% Dissatisfied 37% 94% Net = -2 Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 90 UKIP supporters, 11th-14th January 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only Net = +89 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  17. 17. The economy
  18. 18. Economic Optimism Index 18 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? January 2014 80 Don’t know 4% Get worse Improve 70 60 Get worse Stay the same 50 26% 45% 40 30 20 26% 0 Stay the same Improve Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 10 EOI = +19 Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th January 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  19. 19. -80 Apr-97 Jul-97 Oct-97 Jan-98 Apr-98 Jul-98 Oct-98 Jan-99 Apr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 Jan-00 Apr-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Index (get better minus get worse) The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index +28 -46 -60 Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 19 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? 40 +23 20 +19 0 -20 -40 -48 -56 -64 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  20. 20. Coalition MOT
  21. 21. The coalition: good or bad thing? 21 As you will know, the general election on May 6th 2010 resulted in a hung parliament where no party had an overall majority. Do you think it is a good think or a bad thing for the country that no party achieved an overall majority? Good thing May 2010 November 2010 April 2011 7% 8% 8% 55% January 2014 8% 32% 34% 38% 40% 52% Don’t know Bad thing 58% 60% Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th January 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  22. 22. Health of the Coalition 22 Do you think that the Coalition government is or is not… % Is not …working as a united team? May 2010* April 2011 July 2012 May 2013 January 2014 …dealing with the economic crisis effectively? May 2010* April 2011 July 2012 May 2013 January 2014 …likely to last until 2015 July 2012 May 2013 January 2014 …providing stable May 2010* April 2011 July 2012 government? May 2013 January 2014 Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th January 2014 * When asked in May 2010, the wording was ‘Do you think the new government will or will not…’ 49 66 65 62 49 63 61 50 29 33 52 38 19 34 40 54 48 42 % Is 43 26 28 30 42 28 32 42 63 59 40 55 75 55 53 39 45 51 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  23. 23. Is there appetite for another hung parliament? Thinking about the next general election, do you think it will be a good thing or a bad thing for the country if no party achieves an overall majority? Don’t know 9% Good thing 26% Bad thing 65% Conservative Labour Good thing % LibDem UKIP 21 55 18 Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th January 2014 21 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 23
  24. 24. What about the perceived likelihood of another coalition? And regardless of your personal views of coalitions how likely or unlikely do you think it is that there will be another coalition government after the next general election. Don’t know 4% Very unlikely 16% Very likely 14% 51% 45% 29% 37% Conservative Labour Likely % LibDem UKIP 58 66 48 Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th January 2014 42 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 24
  25. 25. Who is each party’s supporters’ favoured coalition partner? 25 You said that you would vote for/be inclined to support the Conservatives/Labour/Liberal Democrats/UKIP if there were a general election tomorrow. Suppose that no party has an overall majority after the election. How strongly would you support or oppose the Conservatives/Labour/Liberal Democrats/UKIP forming a coalition government with …INSERT if they had enough seats between them for a majority? Form a coalition with the… ...UKIP % Oppose 44 40 Conservative supporters 17 ...Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrat supporters 63 21 …Conservatives 35 65 53 29 …Conservatives UKIP supporters …Labour 62 17 …Green Party …Labour 70 21 ...Liberal Democrats Labour supporters % Support 45 Base: 261 Conservative, 326 Labour, 102 Liberal Democrat and 90 UKIP supporters, all British adults 18+, 11th – 14th January 2014 64 47 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

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