Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: January 2013
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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: January 2013

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The January Ipsos MORI Political Monitor shows the highest level of support Ipsos MORI has recorded for UKIP in this long running series of national voting intentions. Among those who say they are ...

The January Ipsos MORI Political Monitor shows the highest level of support Ipsos MORI has recorded for UKIP in this long running series of national voting intentions. Among those who say they are certain to vote at an immediate general election 9% say they would vote for UKIP. See http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3113/Ipsos-MORI-Political-Monitor-2013.aspx for more information.

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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: January 2013 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: January 2013 Presentation Transcript

  • POLITICAL MONITOR January 2013Contacts: Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com Tomasz.Mludzinski@ipsos.com 020 7347 3000
  • Voting Intentions
  • Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those“certain to vote” 3How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? All giving a voting All certain to vote: 58% intention: 82% 8% 10% Labour 7% 9% 31% 30% Conservative 9% Lib Dem 8% UKIP Other 45% 43% Conservative lead = -14 Conservative lead = -13Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12th -14th January 2013, all certain to vote = 628 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • Voting Intentions January ‘03 – January ‘13 (all certain to vote) 4 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 2005 Howard elected General Brown as PM 2010 (Nov 03) (Jun 07) General Election Cameron elected Election50 (Dec 05) 43%4030 30%2010 8% 0 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Apr-03 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Aug-03 Dec-03 Aug-04 Dec-04 Aug-05 Dec-05 Aug-06 Dec-06 Aug-07 Dec-07 Aug-08 Dec-08 Aug-09 Dec-09 Aug-10 Dec-10 Aug-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Dec-12 Feb-03 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Base: c. 1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • Satisfaction with the Coalitionand Party Leaders
  • Satisfaction with leaders and the Government 6How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party? Net change Net from Dec’ % Dissatisfied % Satisfied satisfaction 2012David Cameron 59 34 -25 -6Nick Clegg 61 28 -33 n/cEd Miliband 48 36 -12 -9 64 27 -37 -4The GovernmentBase: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12th - 14th January 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • 7 36% 28% 34% Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Jan-13 Dec-12 Nov-12 Oct-12 CameronSatisfaction with Party leaders August ‘07 – January ‘13 Sep-12 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ? Clegg Aug-12 Jul-12 Jun-12 May-12 Apr-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Jul-11 Miliband Jun-11 May-11 Apr-11 Mar-11 Feb-11 Jan-11 Election General Dec-10 Nov-10 Oct-10 Sep-10 Aug-10 Jul-10 Jun-10 May-10 Apr-10 Mar-10 Feb-10 Jan-10 Dec-09 Nov-09 Oct-09 Brown Sep-09 Aug-09 Jul-09 Jun-09 May-09 Apr-09 Mar-09 Feb-09 Jan-09 Dec-08 Nov-08 Oct-08 Sep-08 Clegg elected Aug-08 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Jul-08 (Jan 08) Jun-08 May-08 Apr-08 Campbell Mar-08 Feb-08 Jan-08 Dec-07 Nov-07 Oct-07 Sep-07 Aug-07 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 % satisfied
  • Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers 8How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister? CAMERON Net satisfaction Number of months from becoming Prime Minister THATCHER BLAIR MAJOR BROWN Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephoneBase: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • David Cameron (satisfaction) 9 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? January 2013 January 2006 – January 2013 Don’t know Satisfied 70 Dissatisfied 6% 60 50 34% 40 30 Satisfied 20 59% 10 0Dissatisfied Net = -25 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12th - 14th January 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • David Cameron 10 (satisfaction among Tory supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? January 2013 January 2006 – January 2013 Don’t know Satisfied 100 5% 90Dissatisfied 80 70 20% Satisfied 60 50 40 Dissatisfied 30 20 10 75% 0 Net = +55 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Base: 265 Conservative supporters 18+, 12th - 14th January 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders 11(1994 – 2013)How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? BLAIR (1994-1997) CAMERON (2005-2010) Net satisfaction HOWARD (2003-2005) Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader MILIBAND (2010-2012) HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003) Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • Ed Miliband (satisfaction) 12 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? January 2013 October 2010 – January 2013 Don’t know Satisfied 60 Dissatisfied 16% 50 36% 40 30 Satisfied 20 48% 10Dissatisfied Net = -12 Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12th - 14th January 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • Ed Miliband 13 (satisfaction among Labour supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? January 2013 October 2010 – January 2013 Don’t know Satisfied 70 11% 60 Satisfied 50 40 30 53% Dissatisfied 35% 20 10 0Dissatisfied Net = +18 Base: 368 Labour supporters 18+, 12th-14th January 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • Nick Clegg (satisfaction) 14Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/as Deputy Prime Minister? January 2013 January 2008 – January 2013 Don’t know Satisfied 70 Dissatisfied 11% 60 28% 50 40 30 20 Satisfied 10 0 61% Dissatisfied Net = -33 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephoneBase: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12th - 14th January 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • Nick Clegg 15 (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters*) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? January 2013 January 2008 – January 2013 Don’t know Satisfied 100Dissatisfied 9% 90 80 Satisfied 70 60 42% 50 40 30 20 49% Dissatisfied 10 0 Net = -7 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone *Please note the small base size Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 82 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 12th -14th January 2013
  • Economic Optimism
  • Economic Optimism Index 17 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? January 2013 80 Don’t know 70 Improve Get worse 3% 60 Stay the same 21% 50 40 43% 30 20 33% 10 ImproveGet worse 0 Jan-04 Jun-10 Oct-05 Apr-09 Oct-12 Aug-04 Dec-06 Jul-07 Sep-08 Jan-11 Mar-05 Feb-08 Mar-12 Aug-11 May-06 Nov-09 Stay the same EOI = -22 Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12th - 14th January 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • Index (get better minus get worse) 20 40 0 -80 -60 -40 -20 Feb-97 May-97 Aug-97 +28 Nov-97 Feb-98 May-98 Aug-98 Nov-98 Feb-99 May-99 Aug-99Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Nov-99 over the next 12 months? Feb-00 -46 May-00 Aug-00 Nov-00 Feb-01 May-01 Aug-01 Nov-01 Feb-02 -56 May-02 Aug-02 Nov-02 Feb-03 May-03 Aug-03 Nov-03 Feb-04 May-04 Aug-04 Nov-04 Feb-05 May-05 Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index -64 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 +23 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse -48 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor -6 18 -22