Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: February 2014
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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: February 2014

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The February Ipsos MORI Political Monitor records the public’s economic optimism at its highest since May 1997 when Tony Blair and New Labour had just moved into Downing Street. Half (50%) of ...

The February Ipsos MORI Political Monitor records the public’s economic optimism at its highest since May 1997 when Tony Blair and New Labour had just moved into Downing Street. Half (50%) of Britons believe the state of the economy will improve in the next year. One in four (24%) think the economy will get worse, giving an Economic Optimism Index score (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied) of +26 the highest since 1997. Full poll: http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3339/Economic-optimism-at-highest-since-1997-as-Cameron-opens-up-lead-over-Miliband-on-dealing-with-the-economy-and-unemployment.aspx

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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: February 2014 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. POLITICAL MONITOR February 2014 Contacts: Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com Tomasz.Mludzinski@ipsos.com 020 7347 3000
  • 2. Voting Intentions
  • 3. Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those “certain to vote” 3 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? All giving a voting intention: 81% All certain to vote: 56% 9% Labour 10% 9% 31% 10% 31% Conservative Lib Dem 11% 12% UKIP Other 39% Conservative lead = -8 Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st -3rd February 2014, all certain to vote = 592 38% Conservative lead = -7 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • 4. Voting Intentions August ‘03 – February ‘14 (all certain to vote) 4 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 2005 Howard elected General Brown as PM (Jun 07) (Nov 03) Election Cameron elected 50 (Dec 05) 2010 General Election 40 38% 30 31% 20 12% 10% 10 Feb-14 Nov-13 Aug-13 May-13 Feb-13 Nov-12 Aug-12 May-12 Feb-12 Nov-11 Aug-11 May-11 Feb-11 Nov-10 Aug-10 May-10 Feb-10 Nov-09 Aug-09 May-09 Feb-09 Nov-08 Aug-08 May-08 Feb-08 Nov-07 Aug-07 May-07 Feb-07 Nov-06 Aug-06 May-06 Feb-06 Nov-05 Aug-05 May-05 Feb-05 Nov-04 Aug-04 May-04 Feb-04 Nov-03 Aug-03 0 Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • 5. Satisfaction with the Coalition and Party Leaders
  • 6. Satisfaction with leaders and the Government 6 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister /Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP? Swing from Net January % Dissatisfied % Satisfied satisfaction 2014 David Cameron Nick Clegg Ed Miliband 55 64 41 59 -18 -2 -39 -5.5 31 -21 +0.5 31 -10 -4 32 -27 +0.5 25 52 Nigel Farage The Government 37 Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st – 3rd February 2014. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • 7. Feb-14 Jan-14 Dec-13 Nov-13 Oct-13 Sep-13 Aug-13 Jul-13 Jun-13 May-13 Apr-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12 Nov-12 Oct-12 Sep-12 Aug-12 Jul-12 Jun-12 May-12 Apr-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Jul-11 Jun-11 May-11 Apr-11 Mar-11 Feb-11 Jan-11 Dec-10 Nov-10 Oct-10 Sep-10 Aug-10 Jul-10 Jun-10 May-10 Apr-10 Mar-10 Feb-10 Jan-10 Dec-09 Nov-09 Oct-09 Sep-09 Aug-09 Jul-09 Jun-09 May-09 Apr-09 Mar-09 Feb-09 Jan-09 Dec-08 Nov-08 Oct-08 Sep-08 Aug-08 Jul-08 Jun-08 May-08 Apr-08 Mar-08 Feb-08 Jan-08 Dec-07 Nov-07 Oct-07 Sep-07 Aug-07 0 Campbell 10 Farage 40 30 Miliband Brown % satisfied Cameron 50 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 37% 31% 31% 25% 20 General Election Clegg elected (Jan 08) 70 7 Satisfaction with Party leaders August ‘07 – February ‘14 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ? 60 Clegg
  • 8. Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers 8 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister? Net satisfaction CAMERON Number of months from becoming Prime Minister THATCHER BROWN Base: c.1,000 British adults each month MAJOR BLAIR Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • 9. David Cameron (satisfaction) 9 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? February 2006 – February 2014 February 2014 Don’t know Satisfied 70 8% Dissatisfied 60 50 37% 40 30 Satisfied 20 55% 10 0 Dissatisfied Net = -18 Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st – 3rd February 2014 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • 10. David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters) 10 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? February 2006 – February 2014 February 2014 Don’t know 5% Satisfied Dissatisfied 20% 76% Net = +56 Base: 266 Conservative supporters 18+, 1st -3rd February 2014 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Satisfied Dissatisfied Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • 11. Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2014) 11 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? BLAIR (1994-1997) Net satisfaction CAMERON (2005-2010) HOWARD (2003-2005) Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader MILIBAND (2010-2014) HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003) Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • 12. Ed Miliband (satisfaction) 12 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? February 2014 October 2010 – February 2014 Satisfied Don’t know 70 16% Dissatisfied 60 31% 50 40 30 20 Satisfied 10 0 52% Dissatisfied Net = -21 Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st -3rd February 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • 13. Ed Miliband (satisfaction among Labour supporters) 13 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? February 2014 Don’t know October 2010 – February 2014 Satisfied 70 13% 60 Satisfied 50 40 52% 30 20 35% Dissatisfied 10 0 Dissatisfied Net = +17 Base: 308 Labour supporters 18+, 1st – 3rd February 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • 14. Nick Clegg (satisfaction) 14 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? February 2014 Don’t know February 2008 – February 2014 Satisfied 11% 70 Dissatisfied 60 25% 50 40 30 20 10 Satisfied 0 64% Dissatisfied Net = -39 Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st -3rd February 2014 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • 15. Nick Clegg (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters) 15 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? February 2014 Don’t know 7% February 2008 – February 2014 Satisfied 47% 46% 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Satisfied Dissatisfied Dissatisfied Net = +1 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Base: 93 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 1 st -3rd February 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • 16. Nigel Farage (satisfaction) 16 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK Independence Party? All UKIP supporters Don’t know Satisfied Don’t know Satisfied 14% 29% 31% Dissatisfied 12% 74% Dissatisfied 41% Net = -10 Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 84 UKIP supporters, 1st -3rd February 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only Net = +62 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • 17. The economy
  • 18. Economic Optimism Index 18 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? February 2014 80 Don’t know 3% Get worse Improve 70 60 Get worse Stay the same 50 24% 40 50% 30 20 0 Stay the same Improve Aug-04 Nov-04 Feb-05 May-05 Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 10 23% EOI = +26 Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st – 3rd February 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • 19. -80 May-97 Aug-97 Nov-97 Feb-98 May-98 Aug-98 Nov-98 Feb-99 May-99 Aug-99 Nov-99 Feb-00 May-00 Aug-00 Nov-00 Feb-01 May-01 Aug-01 Nov-01 Feb-02 May-02 Aug-02 Nov-02 Feb-03 May-03 Aug-03 Nov-03 Feb-04 May-04 Aug-04 Nov-04 Feb-05 May-05 Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Index (get better minus get worse) The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index +28 -46 -60 Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 19 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? 40 +23 +26 20 0 -20 -40 -48 -56 -64 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • 20. Leaders
  • 21. Leaders on key issues- trend 21 In choosing between David Cameron, Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband or Nigel Farage, which leader would you trust most to… Miliband Cameron Clegg Farage Change since May 2013 42% …deal with managing the economy -3 20% 5% n/c 3% -2 33% …deal with reducing unemployment 28% 6% -3 -3 23% 19% -5 +2 +2 8% 20% Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st – 3rd February 2014 +4 n/c 4% …deal with immigration +5 -5 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • 22. Leaders on key issues 22 In choosing between David Cameron, Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband or Nigel Farage, which leader would you trust most to… Cameron Clegg Miliband Farage 21% ...deal with regulation for banks and bankers' bonuses 29% 10% 6% 21% ...look after the interests of women 28% 12% 3% 29% ...handle disagreements within his party 22% 7% 8% Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 1st – 3rd February 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • 23. Higher rate of tax
  • 24. Higher rate of income tax 24 As you may know, in 2012 the present government reduced the top rate of income tax from 50p in the pound to 45p in the pound, for those people earning over £150,000 a year. Some people argue that high tax rates are not very effective in raising money, and that they harm the economy by putting people off doing business in Britain but others argue that it is unfair to give tax cuts to rich people, and that a higher tax rate is a fairer way of cutting the deficit. Which of the following, if any, do you think is the right rate of income tax that should be charged on income over £150,000 a year? 41% 50p in the pound Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls’ policy of 50p in the pound 45p in the pound Chancellor George Osborne’s policy of 45p in the pound 40p in the pound London Mayor Boris Johnson’s policy of 40p in the pound 40% 27% 28% 24% 26% Half of respondents asked Half of respondents asked Base: split sample question, 521 and 491 British adults 18+, 1 st – 3rd February 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor