Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: December 2013
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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: December 2013

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Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Monitor indicates that George Osborne has taken a firm lead over Ed Balls as most capable Chancellor in the eyes of the public, having been neck-and-neck in August. ...

Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Monitor indicates that George Osborne has taken a firm lead over Ed Balls as most capable Chancellor in the eyes of the public, having been neck-and-neck in August. Four in ten (40%) see Mr Osborne as the more capable Chancellor, an eleven percentage point lead over Mr Balls (29%). In August they were tied, with Mr Osborne on 36% and Mr Balls on 35%.

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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: December 2013 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: December 2013 Presentation Transcript

  • POLITICAL MONITOR December 2013 Contacts: Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com Tomasz.Mludzinski@ipsos.com 020 7347 3000
  • Voting Intentions
  • Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those “certain to vote” 3 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? All giving a voting intention: 81% All certain to vote: 54% 11% Labour 8% 32% Conservative Lib Dem 11% 10% 10% 33% 9% UKIP Other 39% Conservative lead = -7 Base 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th -9h December 2013, all certain to vote = 578 37% Conservative lead = -4 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • Voting Intentions September ‘03 – December ‘13 (all certain to vote) 4 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 2005 Howard elected General Brown as PM (Jun 07) (Nov 03) Election Cameron elected 50 (Dec 05) 2010 General Election 40 37% 33% 30 20 10 Dec-13 Sep-13 Jun-13 Mar-13 Dec-12 Sep-12 Jun-12 Mar-12 Dec-11 Sep-11 Jun-11 Mar-11 Dec-10 Sep-10 Jun-10 Mar-10 Dec-09 Sep-09 Jun-09 Mar-09 Dec-08 Sep-08 Jun-08 Mar-08 Dec-07 Sep-07 Jun-07 Mar-07 Dec-06 Sep-06 Jun-06 Mar-06 Dec-05 Sep-05 Jun-05 Mar-05 Dec-04 Sep-04 Jun-04 Mar-04 Dec-03 Sep-03 0 10% 9% Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • Satisfaction with the Coalition and Party Leaders
  • Satisfaction with leaders and the Government 6 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister /Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP? Swing from Net November % Dissatisfied % Satisfied satisfaction 2013 David Cameron 39 52 -13 +4 Nick Clegg 57 28 -29 +7 Ed Miliband 54 29 -25 -1 33 -5 +4 32 -25 +3 38 Nigel Farage The Government 58 Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th - 9th December 2013. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • Dec-13 Nov-13 Oct-13 Sep-13 Aug-13 Jul-13 Jun-13 May-13 Apr-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12 Nov-12 Oct-12 Sep-12 Aug-12 Jul-12 Jun-12 May-12 Apr-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Jul-11 Jun-11 May-11 Apr-11 Mar-11 Feb-11 Jan-11 Dec-10 Nov-10 Oct-10 Sep-10 Aug-10 Jul-10 Jun-10 May-10 Apr-10 Mar-10 Feb-10 Jan-10 Dec-09 Nov-09 Oct-09 Sep-09 Aug-09 Jul-09 Jun-09 May-09 Apr-09 Mar-09 Feb-09 Jan-09 Dec-08 Nov-08 Oct-08 Sep-08 Aug-08 Jul-08 Jun-08 May-08 Apr-08 Mar-08 Feb-08 Jan-08 Dec-07 Nov-07 Oct-07 Sep-07 Aug-07 0 Campbell 10 Farage 40 30 Miliband % satisfied Cameron 50 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 39% 33% 29% 28% Brown 20 General Election Clegg elected (Jan 08) 70 7 Satisfaction with Party leaders August ‘07 – December ‘13 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ? 60 Clegg
  • Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers 8 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister? Net satisfaction CAMERON Number of months from becoming Prime Minister THATCHER BROWN Base: c.1,000 British adults each month MAJOR BLAIR Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • David Cameron (satisfaction) 9 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? December 2013 January 2006 – December 2013 Satisfied Don’t know 70 9% Dissatisfied 60 50 39% 40 30 Satisfied 20 52% 10 0 Dissatisfied Net = -13 Base 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th December 2013 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters) 10 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? December 2013 January 2006 – December 2013 Don’t know Satisfied 5% Dissatisfied 17% 78% Net = +61 Base: 249 Conservative supporters 18+, 7th -9th December 2013 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Satisfied Dissatisfied Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2013) 11 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? BLAIR (1994-1997) Net satisfaction CAMERON (2005-2010) HOWARD (2003-2005) Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader MILIBAND (2010-2013) HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003) Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • Ed Miliband (satisfaction) 12 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? December 2013 October 2010 – December 2013 Satisfied Don’t know 70 16% Dissatisfied 60 29% 50 40 30 20 Satisfied 10 0 54% Dissatisfied Net = -25 Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th-9th December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • Ed Miliband (satisfaction among Labour supporters) 13 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? December 2013 Don’t know October 2010 – December 2013 Satisfied 70 13% 60 Satisfied 50 40 47% 30 20 41% Dissatisfied 10 0 Dissatisfied Net = +6 Base: 327 Labour supporters 18+, 7th – 9th December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • Nick Clegg (satisfaction) 14 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? December 2013 Don’t know Satisfied January 2008 – December 2013 70 Dissatisfied 60 15% 28% 50 40 30 20 10 Satisfied 0 57% Dissatisfied Net = -29 Base: 1,011 British adults 18+,7th-9th December 2013 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • Nick Clegg (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters) 15 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? December 2013 Don’t know January 2008 – December 2013 Satisfied 14% 50% 36% 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Satisfied Dissatisfied Dissatisfied Net = +14 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Base: 84 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 7th-9th December 2013. N.B. small base size indicative only Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • Nigel Farage (satisfaction) 16 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK Independence Party? All UKIP supporters Satisfied Don’t know Don’t know Dissatisfied 6% 28% Dissatisfied Satisfied 6% 33% 87% 38% Net = -5 Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 62 UKIP supporters, 7th-9th December 2013. N.B. small base size indicative only Net = +81 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • The economy
  • Economic Optimism Index 18 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? December 2013 80 Don’t know Get worse Improve 2% 70 60 Stay the same Get worse 50 26% 44% 40 30 20 27% 0 Stay the same Improve Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 10 EOI = +18 Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • Mar-97 Jun-97 Sep-97 Dec-97 Mar-98 Jun-98 Sep-98 Dec-98 Mar-99 Jun-99 Sep-99 Dec-99 Mar-00 Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Index (get better minus get worse) The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index +28 -46 -60 Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 19 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? 40 +23 20 +18 0 -20 -40 -48 -56 -64 -80 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • Ed Balls, George Osborne & Boris Johnson: policies and personalities
  • Perceptions of Balls, Osborne & Johnson and their policies 21 Which of these statements comes closest to your views of Chancellor, George Osborne/ Shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls/ London Mayor, Boris Johnson? Ed Balls George Osborne Boris Johnson % % % I like him and I like his policies 16 19 39 I like him but I do not like his policies 11 8 20 I do not like him but I like his policies 10 17 5 I do not like him and I do not like his policies 41 37 18 Don't know 22 19 18 Total like him 27 27 59 Total do not like him 51 54 23 Total like his policies 26 36 44 Total do not like his policies 52 45 38 Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • Osborne vs. Balls: most capable Chancellor 22 Who do you think would make the most capable Chancellor, the Conservatives’ George Osborne or Labour’s Ed Balls? August 2013 Don’t know December 2013 Don’t know George Osborne 12% 12% Neither 36% George Osborne Neither 18% 29% 35% Ed Balls Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th -12th August 2013, 1,011 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th December 2013 40% 19% Ed Balls Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • Most capable Chancellor - trend 23 Who do you think would make the most capable Chancellor, the Conservatives’ George Osborne or Labour’s Ed Balls? 50 Ed Balls 40 30 36 36 35 40 38 35 37 36 34 35 35 34 29 29 George Osborne 20 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each time Dec-13 Nov-13 Oct-13 Sep-13 Aug-13 Jul-13 Jun-13 May-13 Apr-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12 Nov-12 Oct-12 Sep-12 Aug-12 Jul-12 Jun-12 May-12 Apr-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Jul-11 Jun-11 May-11 Apr-11 0 Mar-11 10 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor