0
POLITICAL MONITOR
August 2014
Contacts: Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com
Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com
020 7347 3000
Voting Intentions
3
Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those
“certain to vote”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative le...
4
33%
7%
33%
13%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Nov-03
Feb-04
May-04
Aug-04
Nov-04
Feb-05
May-05
Aug-05
Nov-05
Feb-06
May-06
Aug-06
Nov-...
Satisfaction with the Coalition
and Party Leaders
6
54
64
58
43
55
38
26
29
39
37
Net
Satisfaction
Swing from
July
2014
-16 +1.5
-38 +2
-29 +2
-4 +1.5
-18 +4
Base: 1,003 Br...
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09...
8
Netsatisfaction
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
Net satis...
9
38%
54%
8%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
David Cameron (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the ...
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Base: 258 Conservative supporters 18+, 9th -11th August 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Politi...
11
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition ...
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ed Miliband (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing h...
13
50%
41%
9%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Base: 296 Labour supporters 18+, 9th – 11th August 2014
Ed Miliband
(satisfaction amo...
14
Nick Clegg (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the L...
15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Base: 64 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 9th -11th August 2014. N.B. small base size ...
16
39%
43%
18%
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as...
17
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK
Independence Par...
Alternative Conservative
leaders?
19
29%
38%
10%
12%
11%
Hypothetical voting intention with different
Conservative Leaders
If Boris Johnson/Theresa May/ Geo...
20
Potential Conservative vote share under different
leaders- all voters
If Boris Johnson/Theresa May/ George Osborne…were...
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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - August 2014

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The Ipsos MORI Political Monitor for August shows that support for the Conservatives and Labour is tied at 33% if there were a General Election tomorrow, the first time since October 2013. All the parties’ vote shares have changed little from last month, with the Liberal Democrats down one point to 7% and UKIP up one to 13%.

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Transcript of "Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - August 2014"

  1. 1. POLITICAL MONITOR August 2014 Contacts: Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com 020 7347 3000
  2. 2. Voting Intentions
  3. 3. 3 Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those “certain to vote” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Conservative lead = -2 All giving a voting intention: 83% How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 33% 35% 8% 11% 13% Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 9th -11th August 2014, all certain to vote = 589 Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP Other All certain to vote: 55% Conservative lead = 0 33% 33% 7% 13% 14%
  4. 4. 4 33% 7% 33% 13% 0 10 20 30 40 50 Nov-03 Feb-04 May-04 Aug-04 Nov-04 Feb-05 May-05 Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Howard elected (Nov 03) 2005 General Election Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (Jun 07) 2010 General Election Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through August 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Voting Intentions November ‘03 – August ‘14 (all certain to vote) How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
  5. 5. Satisfaction with the Coalition and Party Leaders
  6. 6. 6 54 64 58 43 55 38 26 29 39 37 Net Satisfaction Swing from July 2014 -16 +1.5 -38 +2 -29 +2 -4 +1.5 -18 +4 Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th August 2014. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Satisfaction with leaders and the Government How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister /Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP? David Cameron The Government Nick Clegg Ed Miliband % Satisfied% Dissatisfied Nigel Farage Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  7. 7. 7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 26% %satisfied Cameron Clegg Clegg elected (Jan 08) General Election 38% Miliband 29% Brown Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ? Satisfaction with Party leaders January ‘08 – August ‘14 Farage 39%
  8. 8. 8 Netsatisfaction How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister? Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers THATCHER BLAIR MAJOR BROWN CAMERON Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Prime Minister Note: Data collected prior to August 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from August 2008 was via telephone
  9. 9. 9 38% 54% 8% Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor David Cameron (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? Note: Data collected prior to August 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from August 2008 was via telephone Satisfied Dissatisfied August 2014 SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied Net = -16 Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th August 2014 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 August 2006 – August 2014
  10. 10. 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Base: 258 Conservative supporters 18+, 9th -11th August 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Satisfied Dissatisfied David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? 74% 20% 5% Satisfied Don’t know Dissatisfied Net = +54 Note: Data collected prior to August 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from August 2008 was via telephone August 2006 – August 2014August 2014
  11. 11. 11 Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003) Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2014) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? CAMERON (2005-2010) BLAIR (1994-1997) MILIBAND (2010-2014) HOWARD (2003-2005) Note: Data collected prior to August 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from August 2008 was via telephone Netsatisfaction
  12. 12. 12 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Ed Miliband (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,003 British adults 18+, 9th -11th August 2014 Dissatisfied Satisfied October 2010 – August 2014August 2014 SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied 29% 58% 13% Net = -29
  13. 13. 13 50% 41% 9% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Base: 296 Labour supporters 18+, 9th – 11th August 2014 Ed Miliband (satisfaction among Labour supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? August 2014 Net = +9 SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Dissatisfied Satisfied November 2010 – August 2014
  14. 14. 14 Nick Clegg (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,003 British adults 18+, 9th -11th August 2014 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Note: Data collected prior to August 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from August 2008 was via telephone Dissatisfied Satisfied August 2008 – August 2014August 2014 26% 64% 11% SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied Net = -38
  15. 15. 15 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Base: 64 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 9th -11th August 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only Dissatisfied Satisfied August 2014 44% 45% 11% Satisfied Don’t know Dissatisfied Net = -1 Nick Clegg (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? August 2008 – August 2014 Note: Data collected prior to August 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from August 2008 was via telephone Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  16. 16. 16 39% 43% 18% Nigel Farage (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK Independence Party? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,003 British adults 18+, 9th -11th August 2014 All Satisfied Don’t know Dissatisfied Net = -4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Dissatisfied Satisfied March 2013 – August 2014
  17. 17. 17 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK Independence Party? Nigel Farage (satisfaction among UKIP supporters) Base: 99 UKIP supporters, 9th -11th August 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only 92% 7% 1% UKIP supporters Satisfied Don’t know Dissatisfied 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Dissatisfied Satisfied March 2013 – August 2014 Net = +85
  18. 18. Alternative Conservative leaders?
  19. 19. 19 29% 38% 10% 12% 11% Hypothetical voting intention with different Conservative Leaders If Boris Johnson/Theresa May/ George Osborne…were leader of the Conservative Party, Ed Miliband leader of the Labour Party and Nick Clegg leader of the Liberal Democrat Party, how would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Would you vote for... Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,003 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th August 2014. Figures are based on all voters and exclude those who are undecided, would not vote or refused. Boris Johnson Theresa May George Osborne Conservative Lib Dem UKIP OtherLabour Conservative lead = +5 Conservative lead = -4 Conservative lead = -9 39% 34% 8% 9% 10% 32% 36% 10% 12% 10%
  20. 20. 20 Potential Conservative vote share under different leaders- all voters If Boris Johnson/Theresa May/ George Osborne…were leader of the Conservative Party, Ed Miliband leader of the Labour Party and Nick Clegg leader of the Liberal Democrat Party, how would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Would you vote for... Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,003 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th August 2014 Current Situation Boris Johnson Theresa May George Osborne 29% 32% 39% 33%
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