Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: August 2013

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The latest Ipsos MORI Political Monitor shows that Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg, in particular, are facing a struggle in communicating to voters what they stand for. For each, half of the British public say they agree with the statement that they “don’t know what they stand for”. David Cameron does best with 33% saying they don’t know what he stands for, while 37% feel the same about Nigel Farage.

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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: August 2013

  1. 1. POLITICAL MONITOR August 2013 Contacts: Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com Tomasz.Mludzinski@ipsos.com 020 7347 3000
  2. 2. Voting Intentions
  3. 3. 3 Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those “certain to vote” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Conservative lead = -9 All giving a voting intention: 80% How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 31% 40% 10% 11% 8% Base 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th -12th August 2013, all certain to vote = 586 Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP Other All certain to vote: 54% Conservative lead = -10 30% 40% 10% 11% 9%
  4. 4. 4 0 10 20 30 40 50 May-03 Aug-03 Nov-03 Feb-04 May-04 Aug-04 Nov-04 Feb-05 May-05 Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 40% Howard elected (Nov 03) 2005 General Election Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (Jun 07) 10% 30% 2010 General Election Base: c. 1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Voting Intentions January ‘03 – August ‘13 (all certain to vote) How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 11%
  5. 5. Satisfaction with the Coalition and Party Leaders
  6. 6. 6 55 62 55 38 60 38 27 28 33 32 Net satisfaction Net change from July 2013 -17 -1 -35 -1 -27 -1 -5 -4 -28 +4 Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th August 2013 Satisfaction with leaders and the Government How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister /Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor David Cameron The Government Nick Clegg Ed Miliband % Satisfied% Dissatisfied Nigel Farage
  7. 7. 7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 27% %satisfied Cameron Clegg Campbell Clegg elected (Jan 08) General Election 38% Miliband 28% Brown Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ? Satisfaction with Party leaders August ‘07 – August ‘13 Farage 33%
  8. 8. 8 Netsatisfaction How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister? Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers THATCHER BLAIR MAJOR BROWN CAMERON Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Prime Minister Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
  9. 9. 9 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor David Cameron (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Satisfied Dissatisfied January 2006 – August 2013August 2013 SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied Net = -17 38% 55% 7% Base 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th August 2013
  10. 10. 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Base: 255 Conservative supporters 18+, 10th -12th August 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Satisfied Dissatisfied David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? 72% 25% 3% Satisfied Don’t know Dissatisfied Net = +47 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone January 2006 – August 2013August 2013
  11. 11. 11 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003) Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2013) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? CAMERON (2005-2010) BLAIR (1994-1997) MILIBAND (2010-2013) HOWARD (2003-2005) Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Netsatisfaction
  12. 12. 12 10 20 30 40 50 60 Ed Miliband (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th-12th August 2013 Dissatisfied Satisfied October 2010 – August 2013August 2013 SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied 28% 55% 16% Net = -27
  13. 13. 13 47% 43% 10% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Base: 316 Labour supporters 18+, 10th – 12th August 2013 Ed Miliband (satisfaction among Labour supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? August 2013 Net = +4 SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Dissatisfied Satisfied October 2010 – August 2013
  14. 14. 14 Nick Clegg (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th-12th August 2013 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Dissatisfied Satisfied February 2008 – August 2013August 2013 27% 62% 11% SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied Net = -35
  15. 15. 15 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Base: 85 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 10th-12th August 2013 Dissatisfied Satisfied August 2013 52% 38% 11% SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied Net = +14 Nick Clegg (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? February 2008 – August 2013 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  16. 16. 16 33% 38% 29% Nigel Farage (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK Independence Party? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,007 British adults 18+, 95 UKIP supporters, 10th-12th August 2013 All Satisfied Don’t know Dissatisfied 85% 7% 8% UKIP supporters Satisfied Don’t know Dissatisfied Net = -5 Net = +78
  17. 17. Leaders and their parties
  18. 18. 18 23% 7% 26% 37% 8% Leaders and their parties- Ed Miliband Which of these statements come closest to your view of Ed Miliband and the Labour party? August 2013 I do not like and I do not like his party Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Miliband & the Labour Party % August 2013 Change since October 2012 Total like him 30 -7 Total do not like him 63 +7 Total like his party 49 -2 Total do not like his party 43 +1 Base 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th August 2013 I like him and I like his party I like him but I do not like his party I do not like him but I like his party Don’t know
  19. 19. 19 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Leaders and their parties- David Cameron August 2013 I do not like him and I do not like his party Base 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th August 2013 Cameron & the Conservative Party % August 2013 Change since October 2012 Total like him 43 +2 Total do not like him 52 -2 Total like his party 38 +3 Total do not like his party 57 -3 I like him and his party I like him but I do not like his party I do not like him but I like his party 27% 16% 11% 41% 5% Don’t know Which of these statements come closest to your view of David Cameron and the Conservative/ party?
  20. 20. 20 Leaders and their parties- Nick Clegg Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th-12th August 2013 August 2013 22% 11% 21% 36% 10% Clegg & the Liberal Democrats % August 2013 Change since October 2012 Total like him 33 +4 Total do not like him 57 -6 Total like his party 43 +3 Total do not like his party 47 -5 I do not like him and I do not like his party I like him and his party I like him but I do not like his party I do not like him but I like his party Don’t know I like him and his party I like him but I do not like his party I do not like him but I like his party Don’t know Which of these statements come closest to your view of Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrat party?
  21. 21. 21 19% 8% 6% 44% 22% Leaders and their parties- Nigel Farage Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th-12th August 2013 August 2013 Farage & UKIP % August 2013 Total like him 27 Total do not like him 50 Total like his party 25 Total do not like his party 52 I do not like him and I do not like his party I like him and his party I like him but I do not like his party I do not like him but I like his party Don’t know Which of these statements come closest to your view of Nigel Farage and the United Kingdom Independence party?
  22. 22. 22Identity crisis? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th -12th August 2013 24 26 28 15 13 24 23 18 6 8 8 8 20 21 20 26 30 16 17 30 7 4 4 3 0 20 40 60 80 100 I don't know what Nigel Farage stands for I don't know what Nick Clegg stands for I don't know what Ed Miliband stands for I don't know what David Cameron stands for Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't Know 33% 56% 51% 37% 50% 37% 37% 50%
  23. 23. The economy
  24. 24. 24 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 May-04 Aug-04 Nov-04 Feb-05 May-05 Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Economic Optimism Index Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th August 2013 Improve Stay the same Get worseImprove Don’t know Get worse Stay the same August 2013 EOI = +20 44% 29% 24% 2%
  25. 25. 25 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 May-97 Aug-97 Nov-97 Feb-98 May-98 Aug-98 Nov-98 Feb-99 May-99 Aug-99 Nov-99 Feb-00 May-00 Aug-00 Nov-00 Feb-01 May-01 Aug-01 Nov-01 Feb-02 May-02 Aug-02 Nov-02 Feb-03 May-03 Aug-03 Nov-03 Feb-04 May-04 Aug-04 Nov-04 Feb-05 May-05 Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month +28 -46 -56 -48 +23 The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index Index(getbetterminusgetworse) -64 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor +20
  26. 26. Most capable Chancellor
  27. 27. 27 Osborne vs Balls Who do you think would make the most capable Chancellor, the Conservatives’ George Osborne or Labour’s Ed Balls? Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th August 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 36% 35% 18% 12% George Osborne Ed Balls Neither Don’t know June 2013 35% 38% 15% 13% George Osborne Ed Balls Neither Don’t know August 2013
  28. 28. 28 Osborne vs. Balls - trend 35 36 29 34 35 3636 35 37 34 38 35 0 10 20 30 40 50 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each time Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Who do you think would make the most capable Chancellor, the Conservatives’ George Osborne or Labour’s Ed Balls?

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