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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: April 2014
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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: April 2014

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Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor for April for the London Evening Standard shows that George Osborce delivered the best rated Conservative Budget since 1987, but vast majority still feel there is a ...

Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor for April for the London Evening Standard shows that George Osborce delivered the best rated Conservative Budget since 1987, but vast majority still feel there is a cost of living crisis. It also shows a boost for UKIP and Nigel Farage after the debates about Europe. http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3366/Ipsos-MORI-Political-Monitor-April-2014.aspx

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    Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: April 2014 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: April 2014 Presentation Transcript

    • POLITICAL MONITOR April 2014 Contacts: Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com 020 7347 3000
    • Voting Intentions
    • 3 Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those “certain to vote” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Conservative lead = -5 All giving a voting intention: 80% How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 32% 37% 9% 14% 8% Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th -7th April 2014, all certain to vote = 585 Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP Other All certain to vote: 55% Conservative lead = -6 31% 37% 9% 15% 8%
    • 4 0 10 20 30 40 50 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 37% Howard elected (Nov 03) 2005 General Election Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (Jun 07) 9% 31% 2010 General Election Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Voting Intentions September ‘03 – April ‘14 (all certain to vote) How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 15%
    • Satisfaction with the Coalition and Party Leaders
    • 6 56 63 56 36 58 38 29 30 40 33 Net satisfaction Swing from March 2014 -18 +0.5 -34 -1.5 -26 -2.5 +4 +7 -25 +0.5 Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Satisfaction with leaders and the Government How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister /Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP? David Cameron The Government Nick Clegg Ed Miliband % Satisfied% Dissatisfied Nigel Farage Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
    • 7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 29% %satisfied Cameron Clegg Campbell Clegg elected (Jan 08) General Election 38% Miliband 30% Brown Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ? Satisfaction with Party leaders September ‘07 – April ‘14 Farage 40%
    • 8 Netsatisfaction How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister? Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers THATCHER BLAIR MAJOR BROWN CAMERON Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Prime Minister Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
    • 9 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor David Cameron (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Satisfied Dissatisfied April 2006 – April 2014April 2014 SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied Net = -18 38% 56% 6% Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014
    • 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Base: 230 Conservative supporters 18+, 5th -7th April 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Satisfied Dissatisfied David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? 80% 18% 3% Satisfied Don’t know Dissatisfied Net = +62 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone April 2006 – April 2014April 2014
    • 11 Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003) Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2014) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? CAMERON (2005-2010) BLAIR (1994-1997) MILIBAND (2010-2014) HOWARD (2003-2005) Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Netsatisfaction
    • 12 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Ed Miliband (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th -7th April 2014 Dissatisfied Satisfied October 2010 – April 2014April 2014 SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied 30% 56% 14% Net = -26
    • 13 53%38% 9% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Base: 312 Labour supporters 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014 Ed Miliband (satisfaction among Labour supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? April 2014 Net = +15 SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Dissatisfied Satisfied October 2010 – April 2014
    • 14 Nick Clegg (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th -7th April 2014 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Dissatisfied Satisfied April 2008 – April 2014April 2014 29% 63% 9% SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied Net = -34
    • 15 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Base: 77 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 5th -7th April 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only Dissatisfied Satisfied April 2014 60% 37% 3% Satisfied Don’t know Dissatisfied Net = +23 Nick Clegg (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? April 2008 – April 2014 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
    • 16 40% 36% 24% Nigel Farage (satisfaction) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK Independence Party? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th -7th April 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only All Satisfied Don’t know Dissatisfied Net = +4 March 2013 – April 2014 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Dissatisfied Satisfied
    • 17 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK Independence Party? Nigel Farage (satisfaction among UKIP supporters) Base: 120 UKIP supporters, 5th -7th April 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only 93% 3%4% UKIP supporters Satisfied Don’t know Dissatisfied Net = +90 March 2013 – April 2014 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Dissatisfied Satisfied
    • The economy
    • 19 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Economic Optimism Index Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014 Improve Stay the same Get worseImprove Don’t know Get worse Stay the same April 2014 EOI = +25 49% 25% 24% 2%
    • 20 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jul-97 Oct-97 Jan-98 Apr-98 Jul-98 Oct-98 Jan-99 Apr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 Jan-00 Apr-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: c.1,000 British adults each month +17 -46 -56 -48 +23 The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index Index(getbetterminusgetworse) -64 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor +25
    • Post-Budget 2014 perceptions
    • 22 The Budget – a good thing for you personally? From what you know, or have heard, do you think the Budget proposals are a good thing or a bad thing...? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 25% 60% 16% Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014 Don’t know Good thing Bad thing ...for me personally (April 2012) 43% 35% 22% ...for me personally (April 2014) Don’t know Good thing Bad thing
    • 23 Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014 The Budget – a good thing for you personally? From what you know, or have heard, do you think the Budget proposals are a good thing or a bad thing for you personally? % saying ‘good thing’ 34% 68% 26% 41% 36% 42% 32% 42% 49% 40% 36% 27% 36%35% 11% 16%15% 25% 20% 29% 33% 36% 26% 42% 45% 24% 34% 21% 26%25% 43% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Healey MajorHowe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Osborne
    • 24 33% 53% 14% The Budget – a good thing for the country? From what you know, or have heard, do you think the Budget proposals are a good thing or a bad thing...? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014 Don’t know Good thing Bad thing ...for the country (April 2012) 48% 33% 19% ...for the country (April 2014) Don’t know Good thing Bad thing
    • 25 Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014 The Budget – a good thing for the country? From what you know, or have heard, do you think the Budget proposals are a good thing or a bad thing for the country? % saying ‘good thing’ 47% 69% 39% 47%48% 46% 35% 37% 45% 40% 42% 28% 32% 34% 23% 29% 20% 23% 27% 56%57% 46% 48% 52% 65% 37% 45% 25% 54% 33% 48% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Healey MajorHowe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Osborne
    • 26 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfaction with George Osborne Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way George Osborne is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer? SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied April 2014 Net = +3 June 2010 – April 2014 Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014 47% 44% 9% BB BB AAS AB BB AB BB BB AAS AB BB AB AAS= After Autumn Statement BB= Before Budget AB= After Budget
    • 27 Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014 Satisfaction with the chancellor- long term trend % saying ‘satisfied’ 66% 44% 67% 52% 45% 45% 34% 39% 44% 42% 37% 39% 36%37% 18% 31% 17% 24% 28% 38% 34% 52% 44% 56% 45% 42% 48% 52% 34% 41% 55% 57% 48% 46% 49% 47% 42% 32% 28% 36% 40% 36% 38% 28%27% 47% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Mar-76 Mar-77 Apr-78 Jul-80 Mar-82 Jun-83 Mar-85 Mar-86 Mar-87 Mar-88 Mar-89 Mar-90 Mar-91 Mar-92 Mar-93 Dec-93 Dec-94 Nov-95 Dec-95 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jul-97 Feb-98 Mar-98 Mar-99 Feb-00 Mar-00 Jul-00 Sep-00 Nov-00 Mar-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Mar-04 Nov-05 Feb-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Mar-08 Mar-10 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Mar-13 Apr-14 Healey MajorHowe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Darling Osborne Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer?
    • 28 51% 55% 31% 25% 5% 7% 6% 10% 4% 2% 3% 2% Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't Know Is there a ‘cost of living crisis’? Some people believe/ Ed Miliband has said that despite recent growth in the UK economy, the cost of living has continued to rise for many people, creating a ‘cost of living crisis’. To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree that there is currently a ‘cost of living crisis’ in the UK? Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: SPLIT SAMPLE, 489 & 513 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014 Some people believe that… Ed Miliband has said that… 12%80% 10%82%
    • Best leader and best party
    • 30 Which leader would make the most capable PM? Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister…? Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014. 9% 5% 20% 34%Cameron Miliband Clegg Farage
    • 31 Which leader would make the most capable PM? Trend Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014. N.B: question not asked exactly same way (e.g. Farage added in 2014). Take caution when comparing trends. Cameron Miliband (Brown in Feb 2010 & 2009) Clegg Farage April 2014 34% 20% 5% 9% April 2011 45% 25% 7% N/A Sept 2010 49% 19% 10% N/A Feb 2010 38% 29% 12% N/A Sept 2009 41% 24% 16% N/A Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister…?
    • 32 Leader image Which leader do you think… MilibandCameron Clegg Farage Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014. … best understands the problems facing Britain? … would be best in a crisis? … is most out of touch with ordinary people? 15% 14% 15% 40% 9% 5% 16% 43% 17% 9% 25% 23%
    • 33 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014. N.B: question not asked exactly same way (e.g. Farage added in 2013/14). Take caution when comparing trends. Cameron Miliband (Brown in 2009) Clegg Farage … best understands the problems facing Britain April 2014 23% 25% 9% 17% May 2013 27% 23% 8% 16% Sept 2009 33% 33% 15% N/A … would be best in a crisis? April 2014 43% 16% 5% 9% Sept 2009 37% 34% 9% N/A … is most out of touch with ordinary people? April 2014 40% 15% 14% 15% May 2013 48% 15% 10% 10% Sept 2009 28% 46% 10% N/A Which leader do you think… Leader image- trend
    • 34 Party image And which political party do you think… … would be best at looking after the interests of people like you? … is most clear and united about what its policies should be? 25% 6% 18% 23% 12% 8% 31% 29% 12% 8% 27% 29% Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014. LabourConservatives Liberal Democrats UKIP … has the best policies for the country as a whole?
    • 35 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014. N.B: question not asked exactly same way (e.g. UKIP added in 2014). Take caution when comparing trends. Conservatives Labour Liberal Democrats UKIP … has the best policies for the country as a whole April 2014 29% 27% 8% 16% Feb 2010 29% 27% 16% N/A … would be best at looking after the interests of people like you? April 2014 29% 31% 8% 12% Sept 2009 30% 26% 17% N/A … is most clear about what its policies should be? April 2014 23% 18% 6% 25% Sept 2009 30% 14% 17% N/A Party image- trend And which political party do you think…