0
#ipsosmorilive
© Ipsos MORI

Version 1 | Public
What have we learnt in

?
© Ipsos MORI

Version 1 | Public
1.
People are very wrong
about the world…

#ipsosmorilive

© Ipsos MORI

Version 1 | Public
We have a very odd view of our population...
Out of every 100 people in Britain, about how many do you think are:
Actual

...
...but there is also huge over-estimation of scale
What percentage of the United Kingdom population do you think are
immig...
Biggest misperception on benefit fraud...
Out of every £100 spent from the welfare budget, can you tell me how much of tha...
We learnt a new phrase: emotional innumeracy…

“Emotional
innumeracy”
Reflects concerns,
not facts
&
Motivated reasoning:
...
2.
People aren’t great at
predictions either…

#ipsosmorilive

© Ipsos MORI

Version 1 | Public
Half expected 2013 to be better weather-wise, were they right?

50%

“The weather in the UK will be better than in 2012”
©...
Well done to the half of you that had faith

49%
“Andy Murray will win Wimbledon”
© Ipsos MORI

Version 1 | Public
3.
The next election
remains very difficult
to forecast

#ipsosmorilive

© Ipsos MORI

Version 1 | Public
Ed Miliband has shifted debate into the right area for
him…
There are different ideas about how best to improve people’s f...
Labour ends the year ahead but ….
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
Labour

Conservative

Libe...
4.
We have all been
surprised by the pace
of economic growth

#ipsosmorilive

© Ipsos MORI

Version 1 | Public
We were pessimistic at the beginning of the year…

61%
“The UK will fall back into recession”
© Ipsos MORI

Version 1 | Pu...
But economic optimism has risen throughout 2013
November 2013
Don’t know

Get worse

4%

50

Improve

40

30

27%
42%

20
...
But few feel we are benefiting from it…..
As you may know,
according to official
statistics the UK
economy has grown by
ab...
The living standards debate is yet to be won
Do you think you and your family would be better off under a Conservative
gov...
…it is clear where the 2015 battle lines will lie
Conservatives

Labour

LibDems

UKIP
36%

Grow the economy

24%
4%
4%

R...
5.
The young are the
most pessimistic

#ipsosmorilive

© Ipsos MORI

Version 1 | Public
Who feels poor?
“Among which group would you place yourself … high income, middle
income or low income?”
% Low income

70%...
6.
Eric Pickles was
vindicated…

#ipsosmorilive

© Ipsos MORI

Version 1 | Public
Most of the public hasn’t seen much change in their
council’s services
On balance, do you think services provided by your ...
Formerly loony councils now pretty good!
Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Hackney Council
runs ...
Nationally as many services improving as deteriorating
Do you think each service has got better or worse in the last five ...
7.
Mrs Thatcher
was vindicated…

#ipsosmorilive

© Ipsos MORI

Version 1 | Public
No such thing as society?
Strongly agree
Tend to disagree

Tend to agree
Strongly disagree

Neither agree nor disagree
Don...
So as we grow again, how should we measure success?
Our largest ever global study says…..

© Ipsos MORI

Version 1 | Publi...
We (say we) are among the least materialistic in the world
I measure my success by the things I own

26%
37%

42%
44%

52%...
Though we do feel some pressure – not as much as in
rising nations
I feel under a lot of pressure to be successful and mak...
We are still nostalgic for the way Britain used to be
I would like Britain to be the way it used to be
% Strongly disagree...
But are we struggling with the pace of change?
The world today is changing too fast
6%

6%
9%

93%

12%

14%

11%

16%

19...
But half don’t want things to slow down
I wish I could slow down the pace of my life

24%

73%

24%

72%

23%

36%

33%

3...
Though maybe it is getting too much for some?
I wish I could slow down the pace of my life

24%

73%

24%

72%

23%

36%

...
Optimism
for the future?
© Ipsos MORI

Version 1 | Public
What about 2014? Personal optimism – national pessimism
Looking ahead to the next 12 months, are you optimistic or pessimi...
What about 2014? Personal optimism – national pessimism
Looking ahead to the next 12 months, are you optimistic or pessimi...
Few expect to feel impact of growth
And what impact, if any, do you think the growth in the economy will have on
you and y...
But least we’re not as miserable as the French…
Looking ahead to the next 12 months, are you optimistic or pessimistic abo...
2013 2014
Unfounded Expectations
pessimism? management?
Will people begin to feel
benefits of growth / what
happens next?
...
#ipsosmorilive

And now our speakers….
© Ipsos MORI

Ben.page@ipsos.com

Version 1 | Public
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Ipsos MORI: Great Britain: the way we live now

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We held the Ipsos MORI End of Year Review and Christmas drinks on 12 December 2013, where we looked back over the year in politics, business and society.

It included the first release of key findings from our major new international study comparing Britain with 19 other countries, on everything from trust in government, our changing relationship with brands, social media use, to the colour of our eyes!

We were delighted to be joined on our panel by Dr Stella Creasy MP, Shadow Minister for Business, Innovation and Skills, and Matthew Parris and David Aaronovitch, of The Times.

Published in: News & Politics, Spiritual
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Transcript of "Ipsos MORI: Great Britain: the way we live now"

  1. 1. #ipsosmorilive © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  2. 2. What have we learnt in ? © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  3. 3. 1. People are very wrong about the world… #ipsosmorilive © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  4. 4. We have a very odd view of our population... Out of every 100 people in Britain, about how many do you think are: Actual Mean estimate 59 36 34 30 28 24 22 16 3 Single parents Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public 5 Muslim 8 11 Unemployed Black/Asian Aged 65+ Christian Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Census 2011, NOMIS; 2011 Census, Population and Household Estimates for England and Wales (July 2012) ONS; Families and Households, 2012 (November 2012) ONS..
  5. 5. ...but there is also huge over-estimation of scale What percentage of the United Kingdom population do you think are immigrants to this country (i.e. not born in the UK)? Mean estimate Actual Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75, *British Social Attitudes © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public 31 13 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 ; *Detailed country of birth and nationality analysis from the 2011 Census of England and Wales, (May 2013) ONS. **Immigration Statistics, January to March 2013, (May 2013) Home Office.
  6. 6. Biggest misperception on benefit fraud... Out of every £100 spent from the welfare budget, can you tell me how much of that is claimed fraudulently (i.e. people who dishonestly claim more benefits than they are entitled to)? Mean estimate Actual £24 70p Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; National Statistics fraud and error in the benefit system: preliminary 2012/13 estimates (Great Britain) first release, (June 2013) DWP.
  7. 7. We learnt a new phrase: emotional innumeracy… “Emotional innumeracy” Reflects concerns, not facts & Motivated reasoning: “accuracy goals” vs “directional goals” © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  8. 8. 2. People aren’t great at predictions either… #ipsosmorilive © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  9. 9. Half expected 2013 to be better weather-wise, were they right? 50% “The weather in the UK will be better than in 2012” © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  10. 10. Well done to the half of you that had faith 49% “Andy Murray will win Wimbledon” © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  11. 11. 3. The next election remains very difficult to forecast #ipsosmorilive © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  12. 12. Ed Miliband has shifted debate into the right area for him… There are different ideas about how best to improve people’s financial situation. Which one of the following would you most prefer government to do Take action to reduce the cost of household bills (such as fuel, mortgages or energy bills) Cut income tax 66% 28% Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  13. 13. Labour ends the year ahead but …. How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat UKIP 50 40 38% 32% 30 20 8% 8% 10 0 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Base: c. 500-600 British adults certain to vote each month © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  14. 14. 4. We have all been surprised by the pace of economic growth #ipsosmorilive © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  15. 15. We were pessimistic at the beginning of the year… 61% “The UK will fall back into recession” © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  16. 16. But economic optimism has risen throughout 2013 November 2013 Don’t know Get worse 4% 50 Improve 40 30 27% 42% 20 10 Nov-13 Oct-13 Jul-13 Jun-13 May-13 Apr-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12 0 Sep-13 % Improve 27% Aug-13 Stay the same EOI = +15 Base: 1,019 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th November 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  17. 17. But few feel we are benefiting from it….. As you may know, according to official statistics the UK economy has grown by about 1.5% compared to the same time last year. What impact, if any, do you feel this growth in the economy has had on you and your family’s standard of living so far? Don’t know A great deal 3% 1% 11% 14% A fair amount Not very much 48% 36% None at all 84% Base: 1,019 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th November 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  18. 18. The living standards debate is yet to be won Do you think you and your family would be better off under a Conservative government or a Labour government, or do you think it would make no difference? Labour government Conservative government 22% 23% 52% Base: 1,019 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th November 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Make no difference Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  19. 19. …it is clear where the 2015 battle lines will lie Conservatives Labour LibDems UKIP 36% Grow the economy 24% 4% 4% Reduce you and your family’s cost of living Ensure that you and your family benefits from a growing economy Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public 23% 31% 5% 4% 28% 27% 5% 3% Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  20. 20. 5. The young are the most pessimistic #ipsosmorilive © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  21. 21. Who feels poor? “Among which group would you place yourself … high income, middle income or low income?” % Low income 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Pre war (before 1945) All data points represent > 200 responses © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000) Source: British Social Attitudes
  22. 22. 6. Eric Pickles was vindicated… #ipsosmorilive © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  23. 23. Most of the public hasn’t seen much change in their council’s services On balance, do you think services provided by your local council have got better or worse over the last 12 months, or do you think they have stayed the same? Don’t know Got better 2% 14% Net better Stay the same Base: 1,007 adults aged 18+ in Great Britain, August 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Got worse -7 South -11 Midlands 28% -14 London 56% GB -8 North -27 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  24. 24. Formerly loony councils now pretty good! Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Hackney Council runs things? % of residents satisfied with Hackney Council % satisfied with council 100 74 80 60 53 40 23 20 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year of survey Base: Hackney Residents Survey All respondents (1,016). Fieldwork dates 5 January – 6 March 2013; Inner LB Residents Survey (1,153, 16+, face to face ). Fieldwork dates 18 April - 28 June 2011; 2011 Ipsos MORI National Capibus, (875, 15+ face to face). Fieldwork October 2011. © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Source: Ipsos MORI
  25. 25. Nationally as many services improving as deteriorating Do you think each service has got better or worse in the last five years, or has it stayed the same? Got much better Recycling collection Parks and open spaces GPs surgeries Refuse collection Hospitals Schools and colleges Leisure centres Bus service Street lighting Libraries Street cleaning The police Care for the elderly Road maintenance Meals-on-wheels Base: 1,031 © Ipsos MORI Got a little better 27 15 18 11 18 13 16 11 16 8 20 14 11 8 13 8 12 9 11 7 12 5 10 4 7 4 7 3 Got a little worse Got much worse 21 6 9 6 6 14 18 14 11 12 14 16 9 8 4 3 11 8 9 8 9 7 10 11 15 13 10 12 49 3 2 Source: BBC October 2013 Version 1 | Public
  26. 26. 7. Mrs Thatcher was vindicated… #ipsosmorilive © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  27. 27. No such thing as society? Strongly agree Tend to disagree Tend to agree Strongly disagree Neither agree nor disagree Don't know 3% 4% 8% 13% 8% 6% 48% 26% 30% 12% 10% 33% “There is no such thing as society.” Base: c. 500 GB adults 18+ each statement, April 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Long excerpt starting from: “We've been through a period where too many people have been given to understand that if they have a problem, it's the government's job to cope with it….They're casting their problem on society. And there is no such thing as Source: Ipsos MORI April society... People have got the entitlements too much2013 in mind, without the obligations.”
  28. 28. So as we grow again, how should we measure success? Our largest ever global study says….. © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  29. 29. We (say we) are among the least materialistic in the world I measure my success by the things I own 26% 37% 42% 44% 52% 54% 61% 63% 64% 61% 65% 67% 69% 70% 70% 73% 72% 75% 79% 81% 89% 71% 58% 57% 48% 45% 39% 34% 34% 33% 32% 29% 28% 27% 24% 22% 22% 21% 20% 16% 15% 7% Agree Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 September 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Disagree DK Source: Ipsos Global Trends Survey
  30. 30. Though we do feel some pressure – not as much as in rising nations I feel under a lot of pressure to be successful and make money 30% 68% 31% 66% 26% 66% 34% 60% 45% 53% 46% 52% 47% 49% 47% 49% 49% 46% Agree Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 September 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public 49% 46% 47% 44% 50% 42% Disagree 55% 40% 55% 40% 55% 39% 57% 36% 60% 36% 64% 33% 64% 70% 70% 29% 28% 26% DK Source: Ipsos Global Trends Survey
  31. 31. We are still nostalgic for the way Britain used to be I would like Britain to be the way it used to be % Strongly disagree 15 31 11 % Tend to disagree 20 % Tend to agree 21 % Strongly agree 21 53% 25 26 32 40 40 36 31 22 0 0 10 0 1997 12 13 1999 2002 Version 1 | Public 33% 6 Base (2013): 1,000 adults, online, 3-17 September 2013. (1997-2008) C; 1,00 0 adults © Ipsos MORI 27 6 2008 2013 Source: Ipsos Global Trends Survey
  32. 32. But are we struggling with the pace of change? The world today is changing too fast 6% 6% 9% 93% 12% 14% 11% 16% 19% 19% 20% 22% 22% 21% 21% 24% 23% 24% 24% 25% 31% 41% 93% 86% 84% 84% 84% 80% 77% 76% 76% 75% 75% 74% 74% 72% 71% 70% 70% 68% 62% 54% Agree Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 September 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Disagree DK Source: Ipsos Global Trends Survey
  33. 33. But half don’t want things to slow down I wish I could slow down the pace of my life 24% 73% 24% 72% 23% 36% 33% 35% 31% 34% 39% 42% 44% 43% 44% 49% 49% 39% 44% 50% 49% 48% 46% 49% 52% 46% 45% 50% 51% 43% 42% 71% 62% 62% 62% 61% 59% 55% Agree Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 September 2013 © Ipsos MORI 42% Version 1 | Public 51% 50% 50% Disagree DK Source: Ipsos Global Trends Survey
  34. 34. Though maybe it is getting too much for some? I wish I could slow down the pace of my life 24% 73% 24% 72% 23% 36% 33% 35% 31% 34% 39% 42% 44% 43% 44% 49% 49% 39% 44% 50% 49% 48% 46% 49% 52% 46% 45% 50% 51% 43% 42% 71% 62% 62% 62% 61% 59% 55% Agree Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 September 2013 © Ipsos MORI 42% Version 1 | Public 51% 50% 50% Disagree DK Source: Ipsos Global Trends Survey
  35. 35. Optimism for the future? © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  36. 36. What about 2014? Personal optimism – national pessimism Looking ahead to the next 12 months, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the following? Very optimistic Neither optimistic nor pessimistic Very pessimistic Fairly optimistic Fairly pessimistic Don't know 61% You and your family The city/town village where you live 16 45 24 9 4 2 39% 5 34 35 17 6 2 26% Great Britain 3 23 26 33 13 2 16% The world in general Base: 1,000 GB adults, online, 3-17 September 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public 2 14 28 38 17 2 Source: Ipsos Global Trends Survey
  37. 37. What about 2014? Personal optimism – national pessimism Looking ahead to the next 12 months, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the following? Very optimistic Neither optimistic nor pessimistic Very pessimistic Fairly optimistic Fairly pessimistic Don't know 61% You and your family The city/town village where you live 16 45 24 9 4 2 39% 5 34 35 17 6 2 26% Great Britain 3 23 26 33 13 2 16% The world in general Base: 1,000 GB adults, online, 3-17 September 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public 2 14 28 38 17 2 Source: Ipsos Global Trends Survey
  38. 38. Few expect to feel impact of growth And what impact, if any, do you think the growth in the economy will have on you and your family’s standard of living over the next 12 months? Don’t know A great deal 3%4% A fair amount 33% 19% 15% None at all 77% Base: 1,019 British adults 18+, 9th- 11th November 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Not very much 44% Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  39. 39. But least we’re not as miserable as the French… Looking ahead to the next 12 months, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the following? 26% 34% 28% 40% 27% 35% 34% 26% 32% 30% 30% 36% 31% 23% 28% 29% 28% 39% 21% 35% 40% 20% 22% 67% 70% 69% 12% 10% 9% 33% 21% 19% 25% 14% 23% 32% 37% 48% 44% 43% 46% 32% 53% 47% 47% 46% 45% 41% 39% 35% 34% Optimistic Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 September 201 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public 32% 29% Pessimistic 28% 42% 28% 28% 25% 23% 39% 21% 48% 19% Neither/Don't know Source: Ipsos Global Trends Survey
  40. 40. 2013 2014 Unfounded Expectations pessimism? management? Will people begin to feel benefits of growth / what happens next? © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  41. 41. #ipsosmorilive And now our speakers…. © Ipsos MORI Ben.page@ipsos.com Version 1 | Public
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