Ipsos Global @dvisor 34: The economic pulse of the world July 2012
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Ipsos Global @dvisor 34: The economic pulse of the world July 2012

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Though the world’s attention has turned to London and the Olympic Games, bad economic news continue to emanate from the UK and Europe. Ipsos MORI’s latest poll of 24 countries shows that just one ...

Though the world’s attention has turned to London and the Olympic Games, bad economic news continue to emanate from the UK and Europe. Ipsos MORI’s latest poll of 24 countries shows that just one in nine (11%) Europeans expect their local economy to be stronger in the next six months. This has fallen from 20% in April 2010. Meanwhile three in ten (28%) expect their economy to be weaker while six in ten (60%) expect it to be much the same as it is now.

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Ipsos Global @dvisor 34: The economic pulse of the world July 2012 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Global @dvisorThe Economic Pulse of the WorldCitizens in 24 Countries Assess the Current State of theirCountry’s Economy for a Total Global Perspective A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 The Economic Pulse
  • 2. These are the findings of the Global @dvisor Wave 34 (G@34), an Ipsos survey conducted between June 5th and June 19th, 2012. SURVEY METHOD COUNTRIES SAMPLE WEIGHTING• The survey instrument is • The countries reporting herein • For the results of the survey an • Weighting was then employed conducted monthly in 24 core are Argentina, Australia, international sample of 18,623 to balance demographics and countries around the world via Belgium, Brazil, Canada, adults aged 18-64 in the US ensure that the samples the Ipsos Online Panel system. China, France, Germany, and Canada, and age 16-64 in composition reflects that of the Great Britain, Hungary, India, all other countries, were adult population according to Indonesia, Italy, Japan, interviewed. Approximately the most recent country Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi 1000+ individuals participated Census data, and to provide Arabia, South Africa, South on a country by country basis results intended to Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey via the Ipsos Online Panel with approximate the sample and the United States of the exception of Argentina, universe. A survey with an America. Belgium, Indonesia, Mexico, unweighted probability sample Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, of this size and a 100% South Africa, South Korea, response rate would have an Sweden and Turkey, where estimated margin of error of +/- each have a sample 3.1 percentage points for a approximately 500+. In China, sample of 1,000 and an India and South Africa the estimated margin of error of +/- samples are slightly more 4.5 percentage points 19 times educated and educated out of 20 per country of what compared to the average the results would have been citizen. had the entire population of adults in that country had been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 2 The Economic Pulse
  • 3. Analytic Components… There are three analytic components that make up the findings of this monthly Economic Pulse report. Each question is tracked and analyzed from questions dealing with: The currently perceived macroeconomic state of the respondent’s country: • Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?  The currently perceived state of the local economy: • Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.  A six month outlook for the local economy: • Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 3 The Economic Pulse
  • 4. Global @dvisorTHEWORLDat aGLANCE A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 4 The Economic Pulse
  • 5. Commentary… This month’s top line aggregate average of our 24 tracked countries indicates that the world populace assesses their national economies stands still with last months average of 37%. To put this in perspective, in April 2007 before the financial crisis, the global average was a heady 58%. The drastic impact of the crisis was captured at the bottom of the slide when, by April 2009, the average assessment was a mere 29%--down a whopping 29 points over two years of tumult. Between that time and October of 2010 the average slowly climbed to its highest level of 42% which was still 16 points behind the high water mark but almost as many (+13) on the upswing. If economists and others expected a full recovery rebound based on this trajectory they would be sadly mistaken. Despite stimulus or cuts by governments to get their economies back on track, many continued to sputter—and still do. The theory goes that a rebound looks like an alphabet letter: a ‘V’ or a ‘U’ or maybe a ‘W’. However, what is evident now is a new letter: ‘L’. This flat line has had a long run now so we can actually add it to the lexicon. And there’s some internal global dynamics to maintaining that flat line—some months BRIC pushes up and when it falters APEC picks up lost ground. In other moths a few countries on one side of the world have faltered while in other spots some of the constant gainers have slumped. Cleary the region that is the worst is Europe for obvious reasons and if not for Germany’s constant and robust confidence, it would be a forgone basket case. A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 5 The Economic Pulse
  • 6. Commentary… So if we step back from the minutia of the findings this month what does it all show us? June’s soundings show that while Sweden, South Africa, Brazil, Poland and the United States had the greatest gains to potentially push the aggregate average upwards, they were offset by major slumps in India, Argentina and Saudi Arabia, along with a handful of others with smaller drops. None the less, it just demonstrates the fragile nature of the global system Call it what you want—teeter totter, a pendulum clock or a bunch of spinning plates—there is never really a “pulling on all oars international sentiment uplift” at play in any one sounding. That having been said there are two distinct observations that can be made right now—beyond the now flat line global recovery trajectory. The first is that three members of the BRIC are in a downward trend: Between March 2012 and June 2012 powerhouse India has dropped from 79% positive assessment to 58%--a precipitous 21 point drop. Then there’s China: from March 2012 to June 2012 the positive assessment of the national economy has gone from 71% to 60%--like a titan tripping down 11 steps the government of China and many others are hoping, with stimulus, the trip won’t turn into a fall. And while not a constant high flier but rather a beefy middle of the pack country of confidence, Argentina is now courting a deep funk – dropping from 55% in January 2012 to 34% in June 2012, a downward slump of 21 points that peels the country back to July, 2010. A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 6 The Economic Pulse
  • 7. Commentary… What much of this mirrors—or portends—are many of the lagging indicators witnessed in said countries and regions of late. But the second observation may be even more troubling. In this report observers only have to look at section three which covers the six month outlook for local economies. Here there is a definite trend line in each region of the world: between October 2011 and June 2012, the once cautious and relative positive outlook for the future has now given way to what appears to be a now cautious and modest pessimism. Not to be missed, optimism on a global aggregate average has sunk from 29% in November 2010 to 23% today—down seven points. And while some could be forgiven for having missed the slow drip on this in aggregate over those 19 months, there is one crystallizing snapshot that is blatantly evident in this report. Just look at the countries that in June 2012 lead the pack in terms of faltering outlook. In ranked order: Germany, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, China, Russia, India, France and Canada. With the exception of two or three, the majority are the global powerhouses for either growth or financial stability and investment. A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 7 The Economic Pulse
  • 8. Commentary… So here’s the question: are the heretofore leaders in positive economic assessment—those countries with very large shoulders that have carried the global recovery—catching a cold that could lead to pneumonia, or is it just a night chill that will be shaken off? To add yet another metaphor the many others out there, is the national consumer citizen sentiment six month outlook a vital part of the overarching economic assessment immune system? Let’s watch the lagging indicators over the next couple of months for this group of countries and then decide for sure. That’s because right now a few of them can feel something in their bones and are trying to take some inoculating steps. By two months time we’ll probably know the measure of the malady. Let’s hope it’s a passing chill and nothing more. A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 8 The Economic Pulse
  • 9. The Top Line Summary Global @dvisor A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 The Economic Pulse 9
  • 10. Top Line Summary… The global economic train keeps on rolling, not gathering steam or losing momentum. The assessment paused on the global aggregate level for three months at the start of 2012 (Jan-Mar), then softened by one point for two months in a row. Now the assessment remains unchanged at 38%, showing hopefully that the previous couple of months were not indicative of a downward trend. The other two measures, however, each declined by one point on the global level: assessments of their current local economy (-1 point to 28% “good”), future outlook (-1 pt to 23% “stronger”). Variation around the world on national economic assessments reflect interesting shifts. The emerging markets are showing predominantly declining results this wave – Asia Pacific (-3 to 40%), Latin America (-3 to 38%) – while Western nations are reflecting modest improvements – North America (+2 to 44%), Europe (+1 to 25%). The Middle East and Africa improved one point to 58%. A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 10 The Economic Pulse
  • 11. Global Average of National Economic Assessment (37%) Unchanged This Wave This month’s global economic aggregate of national economies holds at 37% of global citizens rating their national economies as ‘good’. The assessment level remains stable after two months of one-point dips. Saudi Arabia (83%) holds on to first place among the 24 countries surveyed despite slipping five points this month. Sweden (75%) and Germany (66%) are next in line, followed by Canada (62%), Australia (61%) and China (60%). At the bottom of the bottom of the assessment watch: Italy (3%) and Spain (3%) say their national economic situation is “good”, followed by Hungary (4%), France (9%), Japan (9%) and Great Britain (12%). Countries with the greatest improvements: Sweden (+11 to 75%), South Africa (+5 to 38%), Brazil (+3 to 52%), Poland (+3 to 28%), United States (+3 to 26%). Countries with the greatest declines: India (-12 to 58%), Argentina (-11 to 34%), Saudi Arabia (-5 to 83%), Russia (-3 to 33%), Germany (-3 to 66%), China (-3 to 60%). A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 11 The Economic Pulse
  • 12. Global Average of Local Economic Assessment (28%) Down One Point The global average of local economic assessment among the core 24 countries has declined one point to three in ten (28%) global citizens who agree the state of the current economy in their local area is ‘good’. Although this decline is small, it represents the first time the indicator has hit the 28% point mark since March 2012. Saudi Arabia (67%) is the global leader on this measure as well, followed at some distance by Sweden (54%), Germany (48%), Canada (46%), China (44%) and Australia (43%). Spain (6%), Hungary (7%), Italy (7%), Japan (8%), France (14%), Great Britain (15%) and Argentina (17%) sit at the bottom of the global ranking for this metric. Countries with the greatest improvements: Australia (+4 to 43%), Saudi Arabia (+3 to 67%), South Korea (+3 to 19%), Sweden (+3 to 54%) Great Britain (+2 to 15%), Spain (+2 to 6%). Countries with the greatest declines: India (-11 to 39%), Argentina (-10 to 17%), Poland (-3 to 20%), Russia (-3 to 19%), South Africa (-3 to 27%), Brazil (-2 to 39%), China (-2 to 44%), Mexico (-2 to 20%). A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 12 The Economic Pulse
  • 13. Global Average of Future Outlook for Local Economy Also Down One Point: 23% The global assessment of future local economic outlook is down one point, with 23% of global citizens reporting they believe their local economy will be stronger six months from now. This indicator is one point lower this wave. Brazil’s position in first place on this measure is solidified with a two-point improvement Brazil (69%). It is followed by global leaders Saudi Arabia (52%), India (50%), Mexico (39%), Argentina (38%) and China (34%). France (6%) and Hungary (6%) sit tied in last place, joined at the bottom by Japan (7%), Belgium (8%), Great Britain (9%) and Italy (10%). Countries with the greatest improvements: Sweden (+5 to 15%), Turkey (+5 to 30%), Spain (+4 to 18%), Australia (+2 to 16%), Brazil (+2 to 69%). Countries with the greatest declines: Argentina (-6 to 38%), Germany (-6 to 14%), China (-5 to 34%), Saudi Arabia (-5 to 52%), India (-4 to 50%), Russia (-4 to 14%), Canada (-3 to 18%), France (-3 to 6%). A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 13 The Economic Pulse
  • 14. 1. National Economic Assessments: Countries at a Glance Compared to the Last Wave… Those Countries Where the Country Economic Assessment… is has experienced an has experienced a is HIGHEST IMPROVEMENT DECLINE LOWEST this month since last sounding since last sounding this month Saudi Arabia 83% Sweden  11 India  12 Italy 3% Sweden 75% South Africa  5 Argentina  11 Spain 3% Germany 66% Brazil  3 Saudi Arabia  5 Hungary 4% Canada 62% Poland  3 China  3 France 9% Australia 61% United States  3 Germany  3 Japan 9% China 60% Great Britain  2 Russia  3 Great Britain 12% Turkey  2 Belgium  1 Hungary  1 Indonesia  1 South Korea  1Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? 14 The Economic Pulse
  • 15. 1. National Economic Assessment: Regions at a Glance Compared to the Last Wave… CHANGE REGION NET (since last (in descending order by NET) ‘Good’ sounding) Middle East/Africa 58% 1% BRIC 51% 4% North America 44% 2% APAC 40% 3% LATAM 38% 3% G8 27% 1% Europe 25% 1%Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 15 The Economic Pulse
  • 16. 2. Local Economic Assessment: Countries at a Glance Compared to the Last Wave… Those Countries Where the Local Area Economic Assessment… has experienced a is has experienced an is DECLINE HIGHEST IMPROVEMENT LOWEST since last this month since last sounding this month sounding Saudi Arabia 67% Australia  4 India  11 Spain 6% Sweden 54% Saudi Arabia  3 Argentina  10 Hungary 7% Germany 48% South Korea  3 South Africa  3 Italy 7% Canada 46% Sweden  3 Russia  3 Japan 8% China 44% Great Britain  2 Poland  3 France 14% Spain  2 Mexico  2 Great Britain 15% Canada  1 China  2 Germany  1 Brazil  2 Indonesia  1 United States  1 Japan  1 Italy  1 Hungary  1 France  1Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 16 The Economic Pulse
  • 17. 2. Local Economic Assessment: Regions at a Glance Compared to the Last Wave… REGION NET CHANGE (in descending order by NET) ‘Strong’ (since last sounding) Top 3 Box (5-6-7) Middle East/Africa 45% N/C BRIC 35% 5% North America 34% N/C APAC 28% 2% LATAM 25% 5% G-8 Countries 22% N/C Europe 21% N/CRate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 17 The Economic Pulse
  • 18. 3. Six Month Outlook on the Local Economy: Countries at a Glance Compared to the Last Wave… Countries where the Assessment of the Local Economic Strengthening … is has experienced an has experienced a is HIGHEST IMPROVEMENT DECLINE LOWEST this month since last sounding since last sounding this month Brazil 69% Sweden  5 Germany  6 Hungary 6% Saudi Arabia 52% Turkey  5 Argentina  6 France 6% India 50% Spain  4 Saudi Arabia  5 Japan 7% Mexico 39% Australia  2 China  5 Belgium 8% Argentina 38% Brazil  2 Russia  4 Great Britain 9% India  4 Italy 10% France  3 Canada  3 South Africa  2 Italy  2 United States  1 South Korea  1 Poland  1 Hungary  1Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to bemuch stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 18 The Economic Pulse
  • 19. 3. Six Month Outlook on Local Economy: Regions at a Glance Compared to Last Wave… REGION NET CHANGE (in descending order by NET) ‘Stronger’ (since last sounding) LATAM 49% 1% BRIC 42% 2% Middle East/Africa 32% N/C APAC 24% 1% North America 21% 2% G-8 Countries 13% 2% Europe 11% 1%Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to bemuch stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 19 The Economic Pulse
  • 20. The Detailed Findings Global @dvisor A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 The Economic Pulse 20
  • 21. Global @dvisor  Assessing The Current Economic Situation … …in Their CountryDetailed Tables B.3 A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 21 The Economic Pulse
  • 22. Global Citizens Assess the Current Economic Situation in their Country as “Good” ‘Very Good / Somewhat Good’ Total 37% Saudi Arabia 83% Sweden 75% Germany 66% Canada 62% Australia 61% China 60% India 58% Brazil 52% Turkey 51% Indonesia 41% South Africa 38% Argentina 34% Russia 33% Belgium 29% Mexico 28% Poland 28% United States 26% South Korea 21% Great Britain 12% France 9% Japan 9% Hungary 4% Italy 3% Spain 3%Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economicsituation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 22 The Economic Pulse
  • 23. Global Average Tracked - Global Citizens Assess the Current Economic Situation in their Country as “Good”:… N/C Total Good 70% 60% 56% 55% 50% 45% 42% 41% 41% 40% 41% 40% 40% 41% 40% 41% 40% 40% 38% 38% 39% 39% 38% 38% 39% 38% 39% 38% 39% 39% 39% 38% 37% 37% 40% 32% 29% 30% 20% 10% 0% Mar/11 Mar/12 Oct/07 Oct/10 Oct/11 Nov/08 Nov/10 Nov/11 Jan/11 Jan/12 Nov/Jan/10 May/10 Jun/10 Feb/11 May/11 Jun/11 Feb/12 May/12 Jun/12 Jul/10 Jul/11 Sep/10 Dec/10 Sep/11 Dec/11 Aug/10 Aug/11 Apr/07 Apr/08 Apr/09 Apr/10 Apr/11 Apr/12Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 23 The Economic Pulse
  • 24. For All Countries Tracked: Citizens Assess the Current Economic Situation in their Country as “Good” Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun ‘10 ‘10 ‘10 ‘10 ‘10 ‘10 ‘10 ‘10 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘12 ‘12 ‘12 ‘12 ‘12 ‘12 Argentina 27% 39% 34% 36% 38% 35% 42% 39% 45% 41% 43% 46% 46% 47% 50% 50% 59% 54% 55% 52% 55% 47% 51% 38% 45% 34% Australia 74% 72% 72% 72% 77% 78% 74% 75% 78% 72% 70% 70% 73% 66% 64% 56% 61% 62% 67% 68% 70% 66% 62% 64% 61% 61% Belgium 23% 22% 29% 33% 36% 29% 28% 31% 34% 39% 36% 41% 40% 42% 41% 37% 31% 25% 24% 19% 22% 16% 24% 21% 28% 29% Brazil 65% 65% 55% 60% 58% 66% 64% 62% 56% 61% 53% 52% 51% 51% 53% 52% 55% 55% 59% 56% 62% 63% 54% 59% 49% 52% Canada 64% 68% 68% 65% 68% 63% 63% 62% 68% 68% 64% 68% 69% 69% 72% 73% 66% 66% 62% 63% 65% 65% 64% 62% 62% 62% China 78% 77% 74% 77% 75% 79% 74% 72% 74% 73% 67% 75% 68% 68% 66% 61% 65% 65% 62% 55% 64% 72% 71% 62% 63% 60% France 8% 6% 9% 12% 10% 10% 12% 12% 11% 10% 10% 8% 11% 12% 8% 12% 7% 6% 7% 5% 6% 7% 9% 9% 9% 9% Germany 37% 38% 48% 55% 56% 64% 67% 63% 64% 64% 62% 67% 68% 68% 71% 66% 63% 64% 64% 61% 70% 71% 68% 68% 69% 66%Great Britain 13% 13% 13% 16% 16% 12% 16% 13% 15% 12% 8% 10% 15% 13% 10% 11% 17% 11% 10% 8% 13% 10% 14% 12% 10% 12% Hungary 8% 8% 9% 11% 7% 13% 7% 6% 3% 5% 3% 6% 5% 6% 5% 4% 4% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% India 85% 85% 78% 80% 82% 88% 88% 87% 76% 77% 73% 76% 73% 71% 62% 69% 69% 75% 69% 68% 65% 74% 79% 72% 70% 58% Indonesia 52% 49% 51% 39% 49% 54% 45% 48% 37% 38% 40% 46% 47% 40% 41% 36% 42% 35% 50% 46% 45% 40% 35% 36% 40% 41% Italy 14% 16% 16% 17% 14% 16% 11% 14% 11% 14% 12% 10% 14% 10% 10% 8% 8% 8% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% 5% 3% 3% Japan 6% 9% 6% 8% 7% 8% 6% 9% 6% 8% 8% 7% 9% 8% 8% 6% 8% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9% Mexico 23% 21% 25% 22% 23% 25% 20% 25% 25% 33% 22% 25% 27% 29% 34% 33% 25% 28% 32% 30% 24% 29% 31% 33% 28% 28% Poland 45% 46% 42% 33% 33% 29% 30% 28% 23% 29% 19% 23% 22% 20% 24% 28% 27% 30% 28% 27% 27% 21% 27% 25% 25% 28% Russia 30% 30% 24% 37% 27% 28% 29% 27% 26% 25% 26% 26% 26% 29% 25% 26% 27% 23% 25% 30% 30% 28% 33% 33% 36% 33%Saudi Arabia 80% 73% 80% 81% 78% 76% 81% 81% 80% 81% 85% 87% 89% 89% 87% 88% 89% 83% 89% 86% 86% 90% 89% 88% 88% 83%South Africa 41% 34% 56% 45% 41% 46% 41% 51% 45% 45% 40% 41% 43% 42% 38% 39% 34% 39% 32% 32% 42% 40% 36% 35% 33% 38%South Korea 31% 34% 34% 30% 35% 32% 37% 39% 34% 38% 22% 25% 29% 27% 27% 18% 21% 18% 26% 21% 17% 17% 20% 22% 20% 21% Spain 6% 5% 10% 10% 9% 10% 7% 7% 4% 6% 6% 8% 6% 6% 7% 6% 3% 5% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% Sweden 60% 63% 71% 73% 72% 77% 75% 75% 82% 80% 71% 78% 76% 76% 77% 70% 74% 69% 73% 74% 72% 73% 70% 71% 64% 75% Turkey 40% 44% 37% 45% 39% 43% 41% 41% 46% 47% 43% 49% 50% 51% 57% 48% 61% 59% 54% 58% 55% 58% 58% 51% 49% 51%United States 23% 18% 17% 15% 15% 18% 20% 19% 20% 20% 19% 17% 23% 19% 19% 14% 15% 14% 19% 21% 21% 19% 22% 27% 23% 26% A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 24 The Economic Pulse
  • 25. Countries Ranked and Marked By Change In Assessment From Last Month (Left Column) Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? % Very Good / Somewhat Good Total (N/C) 37% Sweden (+11) 75%South Africa (+5) 38% Brazil (+3) 52% Poland (+3) 28%United States (+3) 26%Great Britain (+2) 12% Turkey (+2) 51% Belgium (+1) 29% Green marks countries experiencing improvement; Hungary (+1) 4% Blue marks countries with no change from last month; Indonesia (+1) 41% Red marks countries experiencing a decline…South Korea (+1) 21% Australia (N/C) 61% Canada (N/C) 62% France (N/C) 9% Italy (N/C) 3% Japan (N/C) 9% Mexico (N/C) 28% Spain (N/C) 3% China (-3) 60% Germany (-3) 66% Russia (-3) 33% Saudi Arabia (-5) 83% Argentina (-11) 34% India (-12) 58% A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 25 The Economic Pulse
  • 26. Countries Ranked by Net Improvement, Decline or No Change Compared to Last Month: Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Sweden (+11) 11% South Africa (+5) 5% Brazil (+3) 3% Poland (+3) 3% United States (+3) 3% Great Britain (+2) 2% Turkey (+2) 2% Belgium (+1) 1% Hungary (+1) 1% Indonesia (+1) 1% South Korea (+1) 1% Australia (N/C) 0% Canada (N/C) 0% France (N/C) 0% Italy (N/C) 0% Japan (N/C) 0% Mexico (N/C) 0% Spain (N/C) 0% -3% China (-3) -3% Germany (-3) -3% Russia (-3) -5% Saudi Arabia (-5) -11% Argentina (-11) -12% India (-12) A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 26 The Economic Pulse
  • 27. Assessing the Current Economic Situation by All Regions: “Very Good / Somewhat Good” 80% 71% 70% 64% 60% 61% 58% 50% 51% 51% 45% 44% 40% 40% 38% 30% 27% 25% 20% 10% Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Oct/07 Oct/10 Oct/11 Nov/08 Nov/10 Nov/11 Jan/11 Jan/12 May/10 Nov/Jan/10 Jun/10 Feb/11 May/11 Jun/11 Feb/12 May/12 Jun/12 Jul/10 Sept/10 Jul/11 Sept/11 Dec/10 Dec/11 Aug/10 Aug/11 Apr/07 Apr/08 Apr/09 Apr/10 Apr/11 Apr/12 North America (Can/US) LATAM Europe APAC G8 BRIC Middle East/AfricaNow thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 27 The Economic Pulse
  • 28. North American (Canada/US) Countries Assessing the Current Economic Situation 2 ‘Very Good / Somewhat Good’ 100% 90% 80% 80% 70% 62% 60% 47% 50% 40% 30% 26% 20% 10% 0% Mar/11 Mar/12 Oct/11 Nov/11 Jan/12 Apr 2007 Apr 2008 Nov 2008 Apr 2009 Apr 2010 Nov 2010 May/11 Jan 2011 Jun/11 Feb/12 May/12 Jun/12 Jul/11 Sept/11 Mar 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Dec/11 Nov/Jan 2010 Jun 2010 Feb 2011 Jul 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2007 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Aug/11 Apr/11 Apr/12 United States CanadaNow thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 28 The Economic Pulse
  • 29. LATAM Countries Assessing the Current Economic Situation 3 ‘Very Good / Somewhat Good’ 80% 70% 60% 52% 50% 50% 42% 40% 34% 30% 28% 20% 10% 0% Nov-08 Nov-10 Nov-11 May-10 Jun-10 Feb-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jun-11 Feb-12 Mar-12 May-12 Mar-10 Jul-10 Jun-12 Nov-09/Jan-10 Sept-10 Jul-11 Sept-11 Oct-07 Oct-10 Dec-10 Oct-11 Dec-11 Jan-11 Jan-12 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-10 Aug-10 Aug-11 Brazil Argentina MexicoNow thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 29 The Economic Pulse
  • 30. European Countries Assessing the Current Economic Situation 1 ‘Very Good / Somewhat Good’ 90% 80% 75% 70% 66% 64% 60% 59% 50% 50% 40% 30% 29% 28% 28% 27% 20% 12% 10% 9% 4% 2% 0% Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Oct-07 Oct-10 Oct-11 Nov-08 Nov-10 Jan-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 May-10 Jun-10 Feb-11 May-11 Jun-11 Feb-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-10 Jul-11 Sept-11 Sep-10 Dec-10 Dec-11 Aug-10 Aug-11 Nov/Jan 2010 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Germany France Spain Sweden Great Britain Belgium Italy Hungary PolandNow thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 30 The Economic Pulse
  • 31. APAC Countries Assessing the Current Economic Situation 3 ‘Very Good / Somewhat Good’ 100% 90% 90% 88% 80% 78% 70% 65% 61% 60% 60% 58% 50% 40% 41% 33% 30% 20% 21% 16% 10% 9% 0% Nov-08 Nov-10 Nov-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jun-11 Feb-12 Mar-12 May-12 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-11 Jun-12 Nov-09/Jan-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Sept-11 Oct-07 Sep-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Oct-11 Dec-11 Jan-11 Jan-12 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-10 Aug-10 Aug-11 Australia China India Japan Russia South Korea IndonesiaNow thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 31 The Economic Pulse
  • 32. G8 Countries Assessing the Economic Situation 1 ‘Very Good / Somewhat Good’ 100% 90% 80% 80% 70% 65% 66% 62% 60% 59% 55% 50% 47% 40% 33% 30% 27% 28% 26% 27% 20% 12% 10% 9% 3% 0% Nov-08 Nov-10 Nov-11 Mar-10 May-10 Jun-10 Feb-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jun-11 Feb-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jun-12 Nov-09/Jan-10 Jul-10 Sept-10 Jul-11 Sept-11 Oct-07 Oct-10 Dec-10 Oct-11 Dec-11 Jan-11 Jan-12 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Aug-10 Aug-11 Great Britain Canada France Germany Italy Japan Russia United StatesNow thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 32 The Economic Pulse
  • 33. BRIC Countries Assessing the Economic Situation 4 ‘Very Good / Somewhat Good’ 100% 90% 90% 88% 80% 70% 65% 60% 60% 58% 52% 50% 42% 40% 33% 30% 20% 10% 0% Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Oct-07 Oct-10 Oct-11 Nov-08 Nov-10 Jan-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 May-10 Jun-10 Feb-11 May-11 Jun-11 Feb-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-10 Jul-11 Sept-10 Sept-11 Dec-10 Dec-11 Nov 09/Jan 10 Aug-10 Aug-11 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Brazil Russia India ChinaNow thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 33 The Economic Pulse
  • 34. Middle East/African Countries Assessing the Economic Situation 1 ‘Very Good / Somewhat Good’ 100% 90% 83% 80% 73% 70% 60% 50% 51% 51% 40% 38% 38% 30% 20% 10% 0% Nov-10 Nov-11 Mar-10 May-10 Jun-10 Feb-11 Mar-11 May-11 Feb-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-10 Jun-11 Jul-11 Sep-10 Dec-10 Sept-11 Oct-10 Oct-11 Dec-11 Jan-11 Jan-12 N09/J10 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Aug-10 Turkey Saudi Arabia Aug-11 South AfricaNow thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 34 The Economic Pulse
  • 35. Global @dvisor  Assessing The Economy… …In Their Local AreaDetailed Tables B.6 A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 35 The Economic Pulse
  • 36. Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy In Their Local Area is Strong… % Strong (Top 3: 5-6-7) Total 28% Saudi Arabia 67% Sweden 54% Germany 48% Canada 46% China 44% Australia 43% Turkey 40% Brazil 39% India 39% Indonesia 28% South Africa 27% United States 22% Mexico 20% Poland 20% Belgium 19% Russia 19% South Korea 19% Argentina 17% Great Britain 15% France 14% Japan 8% Hungary 7% Italy 7% Spain 6%Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 36 The Economic Pulse
  • 37. Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy In Their Local Area is Strong 1 Total - % Strong (Top 3: 5-6-7) 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 29% 29% 29% 30% 30% 30% 31% 30% 30% 31% 29% 30% 30% 30% 31% 29% 30% 29% 29% 29% 29% 29% 30% 29% 29% 28% 28% 30% 20% 10% 0% Mar/10 Mra/11 Mar/12 Oct/10 Oct/11 Nov/10 Nov/11 Jan/11 Jan/12 May/10 Jun/10 Feb/11 May/11 Jun/11 Feb/12 May/12 Jun/12 Jul/10 Sept/10 Jul/11 Sept/11 Dec/10 Dec/11 Aug/10 Aug/11 Apr/10 Apr/11 Apr/12Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy. A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 37 The Economic Pulse
  • 38. Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy In Their Local Area is Strong % Strong (Top 3 5-6-7) May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 Total 29% 29% 29% 30% 30% 30% 31% 30% 30% 31% 29% 30% 30% 30% 31% 29% 30% 29% 29% 29% 29% 29% 30% 29% 29% 28% Argentina 15% 23% 20% 25% 26% 21% 28% 28% 30% 28% 26% 30% 28% 31% 30% 29% 36% 35% 36% 34% 35% 29% 30% 23% 27% 17% Australia 55% 50% 52% 52% 53% 57% 53% 55% 60% 54% 53% 51% 50% 46% 46% 42% 43% 49% 46% 47% 47% 46% 43% 42% 39% 43% Belgium 11% 12% 14% 20% 19% 17% 21% 16% 20% 30% 23% 27% 26% 25% 24% 19% 21% 18% 16% 14% 15% 11% 16% 14% 19% 19% Brazil 48% 51% 41% 46% 45% 50% 47% 51% 42% 47% 41% 39% 42% 41% 43% 46% 39% 44% 49% 46% 50% 44% 41% 41% 41% 39% Canada 45% 46% 47% 46% 48% 43% 46% 42% 49% 49% 46% 49% 49% 51% 49% 51% 48% 48% 44% 45% 45% 46% 44% 44% 45% 46% China 58% 55% 58% 59% 59% 63% 59% 55% 56% 57% 56% 56% 51% 49% 47% 45% 53% 48% 48% 48% 52% 49% 59% 53% 46% 44% France 12% 11% 14% 15% 13% 14% 14% 12% 14% 15% 16% 14% 16% 16% 14% 18% 12% 15% 12% 12% 12% 13% 15% 13% 15% 14% Germany 26% 29% 30% 33% 35% 39% 43% 43% 40% 43% 38% 46% 46% 47% 47% 45% 43% 41% 43% 41% 45% 48% 47% 47% 47% 48% Great Britain 13% 12% 15% 15% 15% 13% 16% 15% 15% 14% 12% 14% 17% 17% 12% 12% 17% 13% 13% 13% 16% 15% 18% 13% 13% 15% Hungary 11% 13% 10% 14% 11% 15% 11% 9% 12% 10% 9% 12% 10% 12% 11% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 8% 6% 7% 7% 8% 7% India 61% 63% 53% 56% 61% 61% 67% 60% 51% 55% 52% 52% 47% 50% 42% 49% 47% 47% 48% 48% 47% 51% 56% 54% 50% 39% Indonesia 34% 26% 30% 26% 29% 33% 31% 32% 25% 23% 30% 27% 33% 27% 29% 24% 31% 26% 34% 33% 31% 26% 25% 28% 27% 28% Italy 17% 18% 18% 19% 18% 17% 15% 18% 14% 18% 16% 16% 18% 17% 16% 14% 13% 12% 10% 10% 10% 12% 12% 9% 8% 7% Japan 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 4% 5% 5% 5% 7% 6% 7% 5% 5% 7% 6% 5% 7% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% Mexico 24% 24% 19% 18% 18% 18% 15% 17% 22% 21% 17% 18% 18% 19% 25% 24% 21% 21% 23% 22% 22% 28% 25% 27% 22% 20% Poland 30% 28% 30% 31% 29% 21% 25% 22% 19% 21% 19% 23% 17% 21% 21% 23% 24% 24% 19% 21% 24% 18% 22% 20% 23% 20% Russia 25% 23% 24% 30% 24% 26% 24% 19% 20% 16% 17% 21% 18% 18% 19% 17% 18% 23% 18% 19% 21% 21% 23% 18% 22% 19% Saudi Arabia 51% 48% 55% 58% 57% 47% 50% 58% 57% 55% 62% 63% 61% 63% 66% 69% 64% 58% 67% 64% 69% 65% 69% 65% 64% 67% South Africa 28% 27% 34% 28% 26% 27% 26% 30% 34% 29% 22% 23% 28% 34% 34% 27% 26% 26% 25% 23% 26% 26% 29% 26% 30% 27% South Korea 22% 21% 18% 22% 22% 23% 26% 28% 23% 25% 16% 19% 21% 18% 21% 16% 16% 16% 18% 17% 12% 15% 16% 17% 16% 19% Spain 8% 10% 13% 10% 10% 10% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 10% 9% 8% 11% 8% 6% 8% 8% 6% 6% 7% 6% 5% 4% 6% Sweden 47% 49% 46% 53% 54% 54% 58% 55% 53% 57% 51% 54% 47% 52% 59% 57% 52% 55% 43% 48% 49% 45% 46% 53% 51% 54% Turkey 26% 32% 30% 25% 29% 34% 27% 30% 32% 33% 33% 33% 35% 38% 46% 32% 45% 42% 44% 45% 35% 41% 37% 41% 40% 40% United States 21% 21% 20% 17% 16% 19% 20% 20% 19% 24% 18% 18% 19% 18% 22% 17% 18% 16% 19% 23% 22% 24% 23% 20% 23% 22% A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy. 38 The Economic Pulse
  • 39. Countries Ranked and Marked By Change In Assessment From Last Month (Left Column): Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy… Total (-1) 28% Australia (+4) 43%Saudi Arabia (+3) 67%South Korea (+3) 19% Sweden (+3) 54%Great Britain (+2) 15% Spain (+2) 6% Canada (+1) 46% Germany (+1) 48% Indonesia (+1) 28% Japan (+1) 8% Belgium (N/C) 19% Turkey (N/C) 40% France (-1) 14% Green marks countries experiencing improvement; Hungary (-1) 7% Blue marks countries with no change from last month; Italy (-1) 7% Red marks countries experiencing a decline.United States (-1) 22% Brazil (-2) 39% China (-2) 44% Mexico (-2) 20% Poland (-3) 20% Russia (-3) 19%South Africa (-3) 27% Argentina (-10) 17% India (-11) 39% A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 39 The Economic Pulse
  • 40. Countries Ranked by Net Improvement, Decline or No Change Compared to Last Month: Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy…-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Australia (+4) 4% Saudi Arabia (+3) 3% South Korea (+3) 3% Sweden (+3) 3% Great Britain (+2) 2% Spain (+2) 2% Canada (+1) 1% Germany (+1) 1% Indonesia (+1) 1% Japan (+1) 1% Belgium (N/C) 0% Turkey (N/C) 0% -1% France (-1) -1% Hungary (-1) -1% Italy (-1) -1% United States (-1) -2% Brazil (-2) -2% China (-2) -2% Mexico (-2) -3% Poland (-3) -3% Russia (-3) -3% South Africa (-3) -10% Argentina (-10) -11% India (-11) A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 40 The Economic Pulse
  • 41. All Regions Assess the Strength of Their Local Economy % Strong (Top 3 5-6-7) 55% 50% 46% 45% 45% 40% 37% 35% 35% 35% 34% 32% 30% 28% 25% 25% 25% 22% 21% 20% 21% 15% 10% Apr 2010 Nov 2010 Apr 2011 Nov 2011 Apr 2012 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Aug 2011 Jun 2010 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2010 Sept 2010 Jul 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Oct 2011 Dec 2011 North America LATAM Europe APAC G-8 Countries BRIC Middle East/AfricaRate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy. A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 41 The Economic Pulse
  • 42. North American Countries Assess the Strength of Their Local Economy N/C % Strong (Top 3 5-6-7) 55% 50% 44% 46% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 22% 20% 20% 15% 10% Apr 2010 Nov 2010 Apr 2011 Nov 2011 Apr 2012 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Aug 2011 Jun 2010 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Mar 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2010 Sept 2010 Jul 2011 Sept 2011 Feb 20122 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Oct 2011 Dec 2011 United States CanadaRate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy. A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 42 The Economic Pulse
  • 43. LATAM Countries Assess the Strength of Their Local Economy 5 % Strong (Top 3 5-6-7) 55% 50% 45% 40% 39% 38% 35% 30% 25% 20% 20% 20% 19% 17% 15% 10% Apr 2010 Nov 2010 Apr 2011 Nov 2011 Apr 2012 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Aug 2011 Jun 2010 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2010 Sept 2010 Jul 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Oct 2011 Dec 2011 Brazil Argentina MexicoRate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy. A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 43 The Economic Pulse
  • 44. European Countries Assess the Strength of Their Local Economy N/C % Strong (Top 3 5-6-7) 70% 60% 54% 50% 48% 44% 40% 30% 29% 27% 20% 20% 19% 18% 15% 15% 13% 10% 11% 7% 6% 0% Nov-10 Nov-11 Mar-10 May-10 Jun-10 Feb-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jun-11 Feb-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-10 Jul-11 Sept-10 Sept-11 Oct-10 Dec-10 Oct-11 Dec-11 Jan-11 Jan-12 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Aug-10 Aug-11 Germany France Spain Sweden Great Britain Belgium Italy Hungary PolandRate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy. A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 44 The Economic Pulse
  • 45. APAC Countries Assess the Strength of Their Local Economy 2 % Strong (Top 3 5-6-7) 80% 70% 60% 61% 56% 50% 44% 40% 40% 37% 39% 30% 29% 28% 23% 20% 19% 16% 10% 8% 4% 0% Apr 2010 Nov 2010 Apr 2011 Nov 2011 Apr 2012 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Jun 2010 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 May 2011 Aug 2011 Jun 2011 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2010 Sept 2010 Jul 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Oct 2011 Dec 2011 Australia China India Japan Russia South Korea Turkey IndonesiaRate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy. A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 45 The Economic Pulse
  • 46. G8 Countries Assess the Strength of Their Local Economy N/C % Strong (Top 3 5-6-7) 60% 50% 48% 46% 44% 40% 30% 27% 23% 22% 20% 20% 18% 19% 16% 15% 14% 14% 10% 8% 7% 4% 0% Jul 2010 Sept 2010 Jul 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Oct 2011 Dec 2011 Apr 2010 Nov 2010 Apr 2011 Nov 2011 Apr 2012 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Jun 2010 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Aug 2011 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Great Britain Canada France Germany Italy Japan Russia United StatesRate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy. A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 46 The Economic Pulse
  • 47. BRIC Countries Assess the Strength of Their Local Economy 5 % Strong (Top 3 5-6-7) 80% 70% 60% 61% 50% 44% 40% 39% 38% 30% 23% 20% 19% 10% 0% Jul 2010 Sept 2010 Jul 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Oct 2011 Dec 2011 Apr 2010 Nov 2010 Apr 2011 Nov 2011 Apr 2012 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Jun 2010 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Aug 2011 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Brazil Russia India ChinaRate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy. A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 47 The Economic Pulse
  • 48. Middle East/ African Countries Assess the Strength of Their Local Economy N/C % Strong (Top 3 5-6-7) 80% 70% 67% 60% 50% 49% 40% 40% 30% 29% 26% 27% 20% 10% 0% Sept 2010 Jul 2011 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Sept 2011 Oct 2011 Dec 2011 Apr 2010 Julo 2010 Nov 2010 Apr 2011 Nov 2011 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Apr 2012 Mar 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Aug 2011 Jun 2010 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Turkey Saudi Arabia South AfricaRate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy. A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 48 The Economic Pulse
  • 49. Global @dvisor  Assessing the Strength of The Local Economy……Six Months From NowDetailed Tables B.7 A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 49 The Economic Pulse
  • 50. Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy in the Local Area to be Stronger in The Next Six Months… % Much Stronger / Somewhat Stronger Total 23% Brazil 69% Saudi Arabia 52% India 50% Mexico 39% Argentina 38% China 34% Indonesia 31% Turkey 30% United States 24% Canada 18% Spain 18% Australia 16% Poland 15% Sweden 15% Germany 14% Russia 14% South Korea 14% South Africa 13% Italy 10% Great Britain 9% Belgium 8% Japan 7% France 6% Hungary 6%Looking ahead 6 months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be muchstronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 50 The Economic Pulse
  • 51. Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy in the Local Area to be Stronger in The Next Six Months 1 Global Total % Much Stronger / Somewhat Stronger 70% 60% 50% 40% 31% 30% 30% 29% 28% 28% 28% 29% 30% 27% 27% 28% 26% 27% 27% 26% 25% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 25% 24% 26% 24% 24% 23% 20% 10% 0% Apr 2010 Nov 2010 Apr 2011 Nov 2011 Apr 2012 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 May 2010 Aug 2010 Aug 2011 Jun 2010 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2010 Sept 2010 Jul 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Oct 2011 Dec 2011Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to bemuch stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 51 The Economic Pulse
  • 52. Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy in the Local Area to be Stronger in The Next Six Months… % Much Stronger/Somewhat Stronger May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012Total 30% 30% 29% 28% 28% 28% 29% 27% 27% 28% 26% 27% 27% 26% 25% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 25% 24% 26% 24% 24% 23%Argentina 35% 45% 36% 45% 42% 39% 44% 43% 42% 44% 44% 42% 45% 47% 47% 52% 52% 50% 47% 45% 42% 43% 47% 44% 44% 38%Australia 30% 25% 29% 26% 27% 29% 27% 24% 23% 24% 22% 23% 20% 19% 19% 16% 16% 16% 18% 16% 19% 16% 16% 16% 14% 16%Belgium 10% 14% 14% 17% 15% 13% 12% 12% 13% 13% 14% 15% 11% 14% 10% 6% 8% 8% 4% 5% 6% 5% 7% 6% 8% 8%Brazil 72% 72% 69% 68% 75% 78% 76% 78% 73% 73% 67% 72% 71% 64% 71% 71% 65% 74% 72% 71% 74% 69% 71% 75% 67% 69%Canada 29% 30% 32% 25% 27% 26% 27% 27% 31% 29% 28% 28% 26% 25% 24% 18% 15% 19% 19% 19% 21% 20% 22% 20% 21% 18%China 51% 49% 50% 50% 50% 50% 48% 44% 49% 49% 40% 42% 44% 39% 36% 35% 44% 39% 42% 32% 39% 34% 42% 36% 39% 34%France 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 3% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 3% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 4% 6% 5% 9% 6%Germany 22% 21% 26% 29% 26% 31% 35% 27% 30% 28% 26% 24% 26% 22% 22% 18% 16% 12% 15% 13% 18% 20% 17% 17% 20% 14%Great Britain 22% 16% 16% 15% 13% 12% 13% 12% 13% 11% 8% 10% 12% 14% 9% 9% 10% 8% 9% 7% 10% 9% 12% 10% 9% 9%Hungary 23% 23% 15% 18% 18% 23% 13% 10% 12% 15% 10% 11% 7% 8% 10% 8% 6% 5% 6% 3% 5% 6% 8% 7% 7% 6%India 64% 67% 59% 58% 64% 65% 65% 61% 55% 61% 55% 55% 50% 52% 43% 52% 54% 56% 50% 50% 50% 56% 57% 55% 54% 50%Indonesia 36% 36% 38% 35% 35% 35% 34% 30% 26% 26% 29% 28% 32% 29% 29% 28% 29% 28% 32% 37% 32% 28% 26% 26% 31% 31%Italy 17% 19% 17% 18% 16% 17% 16% 15% 18% 16% 17% 15% 15% 15% 13% 14% 10% 11% 21% 12% 15% 19% 19% 14% 12% 10%Japan 12% 13% 9% 8% 6% 6% 8% 8% 8% 9% 8% 9% 10% 9% 10% 7% 7% 10% 6% 7% 8% 8% 12% 9% 7% 7%Mexico 44% 36% 33% 32% 35% 38% 30% 36% 33% 37% 43% 38% 41% 37% 39% 36% 34% 36% 39% 39% 36% 42% 46% 43% 39% 39%Poland 20% 23% 22% 24% 19% 19% 19% 21% 12% 19% 14% 17% 13% 15% 16% 18% 19% 15% 13% 16% 16% 12% 15% 12% 16% 15%Russia 17% 18% 23% 18% 21% 13% 24% 16% 16% 18% 18% 18% 16% 16% 13% 16% 15% 20% 17% 15% 17% 15% 20% 14% 18% 14%Saudi Arabia 50% 41% 46% 53% 46% 48% 45% 47% 45% 52% 56% 60% 59% 60% 62% 64% 57% 53% 54% 60% 63% 57% 59% 57% 57% 52%South Africa 34% 33% 36% 24% 25% 21% 27% 27% 28% 22% 16% 16% 21% 23% 17% 10% 15% 16% 20% 16% 16% 21% 16% 15% 15% 13%South Korea 24% 21% 21% 20% 22% 20% 22% 25% 22% 25% 19% 14% 17% 12% 15% 13% 15% 14% 14% 12% 11% 14% 11% 14% 15% 14%Spain 26% 21% 25% 24% 22% 20% 21% 20% 20% 21% 21% 23% 22% 20% 18% 18% 15% 23% 17% 21% 18% 15% 18% 16% 14% 18%Sweden 15% 21% 20% 17% 19% 21% 19% 20% 16% 21% 17% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 14% 11% 16% 12% 16% 12% 17% 15% 10% 15%Turkey 30% 30% 32% 33% 29% 28% 27% 23% 30% 32% 28% 32% 34% 36% 38% 25% 40% 35% 28% 35% 31% 34% 39% 34% 25% 30%United States 32% 27% 23% 22% 22% 24% 29% 25% 27% 27% 21% 24% 25% 22% 22% 17% 17% 16% 20% 23% 26% 26% 26% 25% 25% 24%Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to bemuch stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 52 The Economic Pulse
  • 53. Countries Ranked and Marked By Change In Assessment From Last Month(Left Column):Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? Total (-1) 23% Sweden (+5) 15% Turkey (+5) 30% Spain (+4) 18% Australia (+2) 16% Brazil (+2) 69% Belgium (N/C) 8%Great Britain (N/C) 9% Indonesia (N/C) 31% Japan (N/C) 7% Mexico (N/C) 39% Hungary (-1) 6% Poland (-1) 15% Green marks countries experiencing improvement; South Korea (-1) 14% Blue marks countries with no change from last month; Red marks countries experiencing a decline. United States (-1) 24% Italy (-2) 10% South Africa (-2) 13% Canada (-3) 18% France (-3) 6% India (-4) 50% Russia (-4) 14% China (-5) 34% Saudi Arabia (-5) 52% Argentina (-6) 38% Germany (-6) 14% A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 53 The Economic Pulse
  • 54. Countries Ranked by Net Improvement, Decline or No Change Compared to Last Month: Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Sweden (+5) 5% Turkey (+5) 5% Spain (+4) 4% Australia (+2) 2% Brazil (+2) 2% Belgium (N/C) 0% Great Britain (N/C) 0% Indonesia (N/C) 0% Japan (N/C) 0% Mexico (N/C) 0% -1% Hungary (-1) -1% Poland (-1) -1% South Korea (-1) -1% United States (-1) -2% Italy (-2) -2% South Africa (-2) -3% Canada (-3) -3% France (-3) -4% India (-4) -4% Russia (-4) -5% China (-5) -5% Saudi Arabia (-5) -6% Argentina (-6) -6% Germany (-6) A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 54 The Economic Pulse
  • 55. All Regions - Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy in the Local Area to be Stronger in The Next Six Months % Much Stronger/Somewhat Stronger 60% 55% 48% 50% 49% 38% 42% 40% 34% 32% 30% 24% 20% 20% 21% 19% 13% 10% 11% 0% Apr 2010 Nov 2010 Apr 2011 Nov 2011 Apr 2012 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Aug 2011 Jun 2010 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2010 Sept 2010 Jul 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Oct 2011 Dec 2011 North America LATAM Europe APAC G-8 Countries BRIC Middle East/AfricaLooking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to bemuch stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 55 The Economic Pulse
  • 56. North American Countries - Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy in the Local Area to be Stronger in The Next Six Months 2 % Much Stronger/Somewhat Stronger 50% 45% 40% 38% 35% 30% 31% 25% 24% 20% 18% 15% 10% Apr 2010 Nov 2010 Apr 2011 Nov 2011 Apr 2012 Jan 2011 Sept 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Aug 2011 Jun 2010 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2010 Sept 2010 Jul 2011 Dec 2010 Oct 2010 Oct 2011 Dec 2011 United States Canada A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to bemuch stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? 56 The Economic Pulse
  • 57. LATAM Countries - Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy in the Local Area to be Stronger in The Next Six Months 1 % Much Stronger/Somewhat Stronger 90% 80% 79% 70% 69% 60% 50% 40% 39% 38% 34% 30% 32% 20% 10% 0% Apr 2010 Nov 2010 Apr 2011 Nov 2011 Apr 2012 Jan 2011 Sept 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Aug 2011 Jun 2010 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2010 Sept 2010 Jul 2011 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Oct 2011 Dec 2011 Brazil Argentina MexicoLooking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to bemuch stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 57 The Economic Pulse
  • 58. European Countries - Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy in the Local Area to be Stronger in The Next Six Months 1 % Much Stronger/Somewhat Stronger 40% 35% 30% 28% 25% 23% 22% 20% 20% 19% 18% 18% 15% 15% 10% 10% 8% 6% 5% 5% 0% Jul 2010 Jul 2011 Sept 2010 Sept 2011 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Oct 2011 Dec 2011 Apr 2010 Nov 2010 Apr 2011 Nov 2011 Apr 2012 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2010 Aug 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 May 2011 Aug 2011 Jun 2011 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Germany France Spain Sweden Great Britain Belgium Italy Hungary PolandLooking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to bemuch stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 58 The Economic Pulse
  • 59. APAC Countries - Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy in the Local Area to be Stronger in The Next Six Months 1 % Much Stronger/Somewhat Stronger 80% 70% 66% 60% 57% 50% 50% 40% 36% 32% 34% 30% 31% 31% 30% 20% 21% 17% 16% 14% 10% 11% 7% 0% Apr 2010 Nov 2010 Apr 2011 Nov 2011 Apr 2012 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Jun 2010 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 May 2011 Aug 2011 Jun 2011 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2010 Sept 2010 Jul 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Oct 2011 Dec 2011 Australia China India Japan Russia South Korea Turkey IndonesiaLooking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to bemuch stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 59 The Economic Pulse
  • 60. G8 Countries - Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy in the Local Area to be Stronger in The Next Six Months 2 % Much Stronger/Somewhat Stronger 40% 38% 35% 30% 25% 24% 23% 20% 20% 18% 18% 17% 15% 14% 11% 10% 10% 9% 7% 6% 5% 5% 0% Apr 2010 Nov 2010 Apr 2011 Nov 2011 Apr 2012 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Jun 2010 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 May 2011 Aug 2011 Jun 2011 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2010 Sept 2010 Jul 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Oct 2011 Dec 2011 Great Britain Canada France Germany Japan Italy Russia United StatesLooking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to bemuch stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 60 The Economic Pulse
  • 61. BRIC Countries - Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy in the Local Area to be Stronger in The Next Six Months 2 % Much Stronger/Somewhat Stronger 90% 80% 79% 70% 69% 66% 60% 57% 50% 50% 40% 34% 30% 20% 17% 14% 10% 0% Jul 2010 Sept 2010 Jul 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Oct 2011 Dec 2011 Apr 2010 Nov 2010 Apr 2011 Nov 2011 Apr 2012 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Jun 2010 Mar 2011 May 2011 Aug 2011 May 2012 Feb 2011 Jun 2011 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Jun 2012 Brazil Russia India ChinaLooking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to bemuch stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 61 The Economic Pulse
  • 62. Middle East/African Countries - Citizen Consumers Who Say The Economy in the Local Area to be Stronger in The Next Six Months N/C % Much Stronger/Somewhat Stronger 70% 60% 52% 50% 44% 40% 38% 32% 30% 30% 20% 13% 10% 0% Apr 2010 Nov 2010 Nov 2011 Apr 2012 Jan 2011 Apr 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Aug 2011 Jun 2010 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2010 Sept 2010 Jul 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Oct 2011 Dec 2011 Turkey Saudi Arabia South AfricaLooking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to bemuch stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 62 The Economic Pulse
  • 63. About Ipsos Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world’s third largest market research company. With offices in 84 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management. Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,363 billion (1.897 billion USD) in 2011. Visit www.ipsos-na.com to learn more about Ipsos’ offerings and capabilities. A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 63 The Economic Pulse
  • 64. For information about this and other Global @dvisor products contact http://www.ipsosglobaladvisor.com/ or: John Wright Senior Vice President and Managing Director, Global @dvisor Ipsos Public Affairs +1 (416) 324-2002 john.wright@ipsos.com Keren Gottfried Research Manager, Global @dvisor Ipsos Public Affairs +1 (416) 572-4481 keren.gottfried@ipsos.com The Ipsos Global @dvisor Syndicate Study is a monthly, online survey of consumer citizens in 24 countries and produces syndicated reports and studies specifically tailored to the needs of corporations, advertising and PR agencies, and governments. For information contact: Chris Deeney Senior Vice President and Managing Director Ipsos Public Affairs +1 (312) 665-0551 chris.deeny@ipsos.com Visit www.ipsos.com for information about all of our products and services. Copyright Ipsos 2010. All rights reserved. The contents of this publication constitute the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. A Global @dvisory – July 2012 – G@34 64 The Economic Pulse