Halifax / Ipsos MORI Housing Confidence Tracker: April 2014
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Halifax / Ipsos MORI Housing Confidence Tracker: April 2014

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The latest Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker conducted by Ipsos MORI finds 71% of the public expecting the average UK house price to rise in the next 12 months (6% expect it to fall),......

The latest Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker conducted by Ipsos MORI finds 71% of the public expecting the average UK house price to rise in the next 12 months (6% expect it to fall), showing little change from where this figure stood at 72% last quarter.

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  • 1. © Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Ipsos MORI slideshare summary of findings & trends 12/04/2014 Q1 2014
  • 2. © Ipsos MORI +9 -2 +7 +19 +15 +15 +20 +33 +40 +64 +66 +65 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Apr-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+) Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax HPI] Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+ House Price Outlook trend
  • 3. © Ipsos MORI +9 -2 +7 +19 +15 +15 +20 +33 +40 +64 +66 +65 -28 -32 -48 -14 -32 -9 -6 -19 0 +23 +15 +23 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Apr-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 HPO EOI HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) Q. Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? (EOI) Source: EOI – Ipsos MORI (measures in advance of HMCT fieldwork) HPO and EOI trends
  • 4. © Ipsos MORI +9 -2 +7 +19 +15 +15 +20 +33 +40 +64 +66 +65 13% 11% 15% 24% 10% 13% 18% 21% 30% 41% 51% 56% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Apr-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 HPO Selling sentiment (%) Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property? HPO and selling sentiment Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Selling sentiment (% agree good time to sell) HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower
  • 5. © Ipsos MORI ‘Higher’ trends 3% 10% 28% 30% 16% 0 20 40 Apr-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker % the same % < 5% higher % 5 - 10% higher % > 15% higher % 10 - 15% higher
  • 6. © Ipsos MORI ‘Lower’ trends 0% 0% 2% 4% 16% 0 20 40 Apr-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker % the same % < 5% lower % 5 - 10% lower % > 15% lower % 10 - 15% lower
  • 7. © Ipsos MORI -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Net (±) Net good time sell Net good time buy -43 -63 +18 +17 Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property? Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker -64 +15 -38 +24 -55 +23 -62 +27 Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+ Apr 2011 Oct 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2012 June 2012 Oct 2012 Dec 2012 +20 -58 +25 -42 Mar 2013 +27 -26 June 2013 Sept 2013 +12 +35 -6 Dec 2013 Buying and selling sentiment Mar 2014 +24 +25 +34
  • 8. © Ipsos MORI Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property? Good time buy/ good time sell 18% 12% 42% 14% Buying/selling sentiment combined Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: 1,959 GB adults 16+, 14 - 24 March 2014 Good time buy/ bad time sell Bad time buy/ good time sell Bad time buy/ bad time sell +4 -5 0 -1
  • 9. © Ipsos MORI Regional dimension: house prices Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax 71% higher 6% lower GB London South England 78% higher 3% lower North England 81% higher 4% lower 68% higher 7% lower Base: 1,959 GB adults 16+, 14 - 24 March 2014, including 266 in London, 461 South England (SE, SW), 470 North England (NW, NE, Y&H) and 338 in the Midlands. 66% higher Midlands 4% lower
  • 10. © Ipsos MORI Regional buying sentiment Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy a property? Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax GB London South England North England Midlands 60% good time 42% bad time 62% good time 28% bad time 64% good time 25% bad time 65% good time Base: 1,959 GB adults 16+, 14 - 24 March 2014, including 266 in London, 461 South England (SE, SW), 470 North England (NW, NE, Y&H) and 338 in the Midlands. 20% bad time 26% bad time 46% good time
  • 11. © Ipsos MORI 64% good time Regional selling sentiment Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property? Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax 32% bad time 24% bad time 41% bad time 30% bad time GB London South England North England Midlands 56% good time 58% good time 58% good time 27% bad time Base: 1,959 GB adults 16+, 14 - 24 March 2014, including 266 in London, 461 South England (SE, SW), 470 North England (NW, NE, Y&H) and 338 in the Midlands. 49% good time
  • 12. © Ipsos MORI PRS rent expectations (PRS renters) 9% 52% 29% 6% 0 20 40 60 Apr-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Q. What do you think will happen to the rents tenants are charged by private landlords that is individuals and companies working in the private sector (i.e. not local councils and housing associations). Taking your answer from this screen and regardless of whether or not you rent your home, do you think that private rents will be higher, lower, or will they be the same in 12 months time? Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: c300-400 private renters % a little higher % the same % a lot higher % a lot/little lower
  • 13. © Ipsos MORI 60% 51% 37% 29% 20% 15% 12% 7% 6% 4% 3% 3% Raise deposit Job security Household finances Rising property prices Availability of mortgages Concerns - interest rate rises Fees and costs of buying a house Shortage of the right type of property Shortage of property for sale Level of stamp duty / taxation Falling property prices Don't know Q. Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property? Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: 1,959 GB adults 16+, 14 - 24 March 2014 Barriers to buying Change + -1 -5 +1 +2 -5 +1 -1 0 +1 -1 +4 +2
  • 14. © Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here ben.marshall@ipsos.com | 020 7347 3461 elizabeth.copp@ipsos.com | 020 7347 3165 12/04/2014 Further information is available here © Ipsos MORI