Emerging Markets and the Changing Global Order: Is there a new model of development?
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Emerging Markets and the Changing Global Order: Is there a new model of development?

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A new survey by Ipsos MORI for King's College International Development Institute of public attitudes in the emerging markets reveals that despite an economic downturn and political troubles, the USA ...

A new survey by Ipsos MORI for King's College International Development Institute of public attitudes in the emerging markets reveals that despite an economic downturn and political troubles, the USA is still considered the country to look to for the right ideas about the economy and jobs.

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Emerging Markets and the Changing Global Order: Is there a new model of development? Emerging Markets and the Changing Global Order: Is there a new model of development? Presentation Transcript

  • Emerging Markets and the Changing Global Order: Is There a New Model of Development? King’s International Development Institute and Ipsos MORI © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Internal Use Only
  • The survey • 11 ‘emerging markets’ covered: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia, India, China*, South Korea, Indonesia • Using Ipsos’ Global @dvisor monthly survey - online panel: representative of more affluent, connected population in these countries • Only includes those aged 16-64, 6,000 interviews in total, fieldwork 1-15th Oct 2013 *Censors in China did allow two questions to be asked © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Internal Use Only
  • Three key questions: 1. Which countries do people look to as an economic model? © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Internal Use Only
  • Who do citizens of these countries look to? Which country or countries, if any, do you think have the right ideas about the economy and jobs that your country's leaders should copy? 0% 10% 20% 30% 28% US 26% China 16% EU 9% South Korea Russia 5% Brazil 5% 3% Turkey 2% India 12% Other 8% None Don’t know 20% Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Internal Use Only
  • The countries people look to fairly closely related to per capita income – with one big exception… Which country or countries, if any, do you think have the right ideas about the economy and jobs that your country's leaders should copy? 30% $60,000 Size and pace of change that notice, not living standards? 20% $50,000 % stating good ideas about the economy and jobs GDP per capita ($, current prices, 2012) $40,000 $30,000 10% $20,000 $10,000 0% $0 United States China EU South Korea Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey, IMF, Eurostat © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Internal Use Only Russia Brazil Turkey India *N.B.: The authorities in China refused to allow this question to be asked
  • Wide variation between countries… Which country or countries, if any, do you think have the right ideas about the economy and jobs that your country's leaders should copy? 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Overall Overall Saudi Saudi Arabia Arabia Turkey Argentina Russia Indonesia South Turkey Argentina Russia Indonesia South Korea Korea US China EU Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Internal Use Only Brazil Brazil South South Africa Africa Mexico Mexico *N.B.: The authorities in China refused to allow this question to be asked India India
  • BRI publics don’t look to other BRIs for economic ideas… Which country or countries, if any, do you think have the right ideas about the economy and jobs that your country's leaders should copy? Brazil Russia India Brazil - <1% 5% Russia 6% - 11% India 3% 1% - China 27% 27% 32% Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Internal Use Only
  • Neighbourhood effects – people looking in their own back yards Which country or countries, if any, do you think have the right ideas about the economy and jobs that your country's leaders should copy? China – 49% South Korea – 30% US – 26% Indonesia Saudi Arabia Turkey – 22% China – 20% Others – 16% Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Internal Use Only
  • 2. Best job opportunities for young people? © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Internal Use Only
  • Clear US lead on job opportunities for young people; EU and China in a close second and third Which country or countries, if any, do you think provide the best job opportunities for young people today? 0% 10% 20% 30% Youth unemp rate* 40% 29% US 23% 18% EU N/A 17% China 10% 10% South Korea 16% Brazil 6% 18% India 6% 10% Russia 4% 15% Turkey 4% 15% 9% Other 7% None Don’t know 23% Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Internal Use Only *Source: International Labour Organisation (2011/12)
  • US lead strongest in India, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa… Which country or countries, if any, do you think provide the best job opportunities for young people today? 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Overall Overall Saudi Argentina Russia Indonesia South Turkey Saudi Argentina Russia Indonesia South Turkey Arabia Korea Arabia Korea US China EU Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Internal Use Only Brazil Brazil Mexico Mexico India India *N.B.: The authorities in China refused to allow this question to be asked South South Africa Africa
  • Two significant differences when look across demographic groups… Which country or countries, if any, do you think provide the best job opportunities for young people today? Education 24% 13% Low Med High Low Med High Low 16% Med High Age Age US: 29% 32% EU: 17% 18% China: <35 Overall Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Internal Use Only 22% 26% 24% 16% 19% 35-49 50-64 <35 35-49 50-64
  • Brazil and India look to themselves – Russia not so much… Which country or countries, if any, do you think provide the best job opportunities for young people today? Brazil Russia India Brazil 22% * 5% Russia 4% 11% 7% India 2% 2% 27% China 20% 14% 22% Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Internal Use Only
  • 3. Which countries will be the leading economic powers over the next 20 years? © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Internal Use Only
  • China seen as the leading global power over the next 20 years – US widely mentioned, EU not Which country or countries, if any, do you think will be the leading economic powers of the world over the next 20 years? 0% 10% 20% 30% China 60% 30% EU 12% Russia 11% India 10% South Korea 9% Brazil 6% Turkey 4% Other 4% 2% Don’t know 13% Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey © Ipsos MORI 50% 52% US None 40% Version 1 | Internal Use Only Balance of opinion very similar to 2013 Pew study in wider group of countries
  • People are not far off from projections… Which country or countries, if any, do you think will be the leading economic powers of the world over the next 20 years? % Leading economic power Real GDP ($trn) 2013 2033 China 52% $11.6 $35.3 US 30% $13.9 $21.6 EU 12% $13.6 $20.8 Russia 11% $2.2 $4.0 India 10% $4.3 $16.0 South Korea 9% $1.4 $2.9 Brazil 6% $2.1 $4.3 Turkey 4% $1.0 $2.5 Note: GDP data is in 2005 US$ PPP volume terms Note: Data for the EU excludes Bulgaria, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey, OECD © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Internal Use Only
  • China the most mentioned in every country, variable for US – uniformly low for EU… Which country or countries, if any, do you think will be the leading economic powers of the world over the next 20 years? 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Overall Overall Saudi Argentina Turkey Saudi Argentina Turkey Arabia Arabia Brazil Indonesia Russia Brazil Indonesia Russia US Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Internal Use Only China EU India India China China South South Korea Korea Mexico Mexico South South Africa Africa
  • Every BRIC country more likely to select own country than US … Which country or countries, if any, do you think will be the leading economic powers of the world over the next 20 years? Brazil Russia India China Brazil 25% 1% 3% 2% Russia 8% 30% 8% 16% India 6% 2% 41% 2% China 39% 58% 42% 71% US 24% 26% 37% 39% Source: Ipsos Global Advisor survey © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Internal Use Only
  • Overall… • Clear messages in emerging/non-western country opinion – although note “don’t knows” • Not experts/decision-makers – but national moods/impressions useful to understand • China now nearly on par with US as a model to follow • Although US still leads on job opportunities for young – and stronger among young themselves • Clear view of future – reflects likely outcome to an extent: G7 accounted for 50% of world GDP in 1995, will be 34% by 2018; BRIC and TIMP up from 20% to 37% • China’s prominence despite low GDP per capita: living standards not top of mind? • Little comfort for EU – more educated more positive (and South Korea…), but not a positive image of future © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Internal Use Only
  • Thank you Bobby Duffy, MD Ipsos Social Research Institute, Visiting Senior Research Fellow, King’s College London bobby.duffy@ipsos.com @BobbyIpsosMORI © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Internal Use Only