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Crime and the British

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Slides presented by Simon Atkinson at Criminal Justice Alliance rountable on campaigning during the run-up to 2015 General Election

Slides presented by Simon Atkinson at Criminal Justice Alliance rountable on campaigning during the run-up to 2015 General Election

Published in News & Politics , Technology
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  • 1. Crime and the British Prepared for Criminal Justice Alliance Roundtable: Campaigning in the run-up to 2015 Simon Atkinson Assistant Chief Executive 22 November 2013 @SimonMAtkinson
  • 2. 2 Theme One: • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone. Perceptions vs “Facts”
  • 3. 3
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  • 5. 5 Theme Two: • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone.
  • 6. 6 The “local” picture often differs from…
  • 7. 7 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  • 8. 8 6% Britain is getting better as a place to live
  • 9. 9 61% Britain is getting worse as a place to live
  • 10. 10 24% Britain is getting better as a place to live July 1998
  • 11. 11 “Thinking about your local area, which 4 or 5 things most need improving?” • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone.
  • 12. Crime is #6... 12 Q Thinking about your local area, which 4 or 5 of the things on the card, if any, do you think most need improving? Top mentions Next mentions % % Activities for teenagers Sports and leisure facilities Job prospects The level of traffic congestion Condition roads/pavements Health services Cleanliness of streets Social care - adults and older people Affordability of housing Level of crime/ASB Local high street/facilities Facilities for young children Parks and open spaces Public transport Wage levels/ local cost of living Base: 986 British adults 15+, 15-21 June 2012 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Schools Social care - children and families Cultural facilities(eg libraries, museums) The quality of the local environment Adult education/training Race/community relations Source: Ipsos MORI Local Improvement Index
  • 13. 13 “What would you say are the most important issues facing Britain today?” • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone.
  • 14. Issues Facing Britain: October 14 What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Change since Sept: Position % Top mentions % 44 Economy 36 Race relations/Immigration 32 Unemployment 25 NHS Inflation/Prices 19 Education/Schools 18 Poverty/Inequality 15 Crime/Law and order Pensions/benefits Housing Base: 975 British adults 18+, 11th - 21st October 2013 14 11 10 -1 +4 +1 -1 -1 +2 +8 +4 +5 +1 +2 +1 -2 -2 +2 0 +2 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
  • 15. Issues Facing Britain: Crime / Law & Order / Violence / Vandalism / ASB What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? 60 Foreign prisoners scandal – Charles Clarke is sacked 50 Blair activates civil contingencies machinery to deal with spiralling street crime 15 Cameron becomes PM Rhys Jones and Garry Newlove murdered Tory election pledge of 40,000 more police 40 Riots May day riots 30 Prison overcrowding reaches record levels 20 Fuel Protests 10 9/11 0 May 1997 May 1998 May 1999 May 2000 May 2001 May 2002 May 2003 May 2004 May 2005 Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home May 2006 May 2007 May 2008 May 2009 May 2010 May 2011 May 2012 May 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
  • 16. 16 • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than Now recording the lowest level of 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone. concern about crime since 1992 Ipsos MORI Issues Index:
  • 17. 17 It’s worth taking a moment to think about how we felt during the (pre-internet…) 1990s… • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone.
  • 18. 18
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  • 22. 22 55%
  • 23. 23
  • 24. The “norm” back in 1993: Most Brits thought they would be a victim of burglary or car crime over the next 12 months… 54% 60% 24
  • 25. 25 Fast-forward to 2010… • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone.
  • 26. Post-2010 Reforms: Policing, education and NHS have been major focus. But they haven’t been the top priorities for the public, as measured by the monthly Ipsos MORI Issues Index • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone. 26
  • 27. Issues Facing Britain: Education / Schools 27 What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Cameron becomes PM 50 Introduction of means-tested tuition fees. Education most important issue. Labour’s second term - pledge to improve failing secondary schools 40 City academies introduced to combat entrenched failure in Education and Inspections Bill limits the power of LAs to some urban schools open new schools 30 April 2011 – Pupil Premium introduced Fuel Protests 20 London Bombs 10 Lowest score since Dec 1985 0 May 1997 May 1998 May 1999 May 2000 May 2001 May 2002 May 2003 May 2004 May 2005 Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home May 2006 May 2007 May 2008 May 2009 May 2010 May 2011 May 2012 May 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
  • 28. Issues Facing Britain: NHS / Hospitals / Healthcare 28 What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? 80 Cameron becomes PM Blair – “We have underfunded the NHS for years and we are paying the price for it” – BBC NHS day 70 General Election – “Battle of Margaret’s shoulder” 60 50 Hewitt heckled at UNISON conference – fears over NHS job cuts 40 30 20 Blair tells doctors “not enough” has been done for the NHS – allocates extra £20 billion. Report says waiting lists have doubled under Labour Alan Milburn promises 35,000 more nurses, 40 new hospitals and development of foundation trusts as part of NHS plan 10 Lowest score since December 1985 0 May 1997 May 1998 May 1999 May 2000 May 2001 May 2002 May 2003 May 2004 May 2005 Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home May 2006 May 2007 May 2008 May 2009 May 2010 May 2011 May 2012 May 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
  • 29. Issues Facing Britain: Race Relations / Immigration / Immigrants 29 What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Cameron becomes PM 50 Sangatte detention centre constantly in the news throughout 2002 600,000 EU migrants settled since 2004 Foreign prisoners furore “Go home or face arrest” adverts used in some London Boroughs 40 9/11 30 Race riots in Burnley, Oldham, and Bradford 20 Anthony Walker murdered in Liverpool 10 0 May 1997 May 1998 May 1999 May 2000 May 2001 May 2002 May 2003 May 2004 May 2005 Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home May 2006 May 2007 May 2008 May 2009 May 2010 May 2011 May 2012 May 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
  • 30. Issues Facing Britain: Economy / Economic situation 30 What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Cameron becomes PM 70 Bank bailout 60 Highest score since 1992. Most important issue for the first time 50 40 Global Recession and Russian Financial crisis 30 End of recession announced Lowest score since Lehman Brothers’ collapse (43%) Northern Rock nationalised 20 10 Sub-prime mortgage crisis in the US 0 May 1997 May 1998 May 1999 May 2000 May 2001 May 2002 May 2003 May 2004 May 2005 Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home May 2006 May 2007 May 2008 May 2009 May 2010 May 2011 May 2012 May 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
  • 31. Issues Facing Britain: Unemployment / Factory closure / Lack of industry What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Cameron becomes PM 50 Youth unemployment reaches 1 million 40 Minimum wage introduced 30 20 10 0 Unemployment in Britain rises to 5.5% ‘New Deal’ launched, providing training, subsidised employment, and voluntary work to the unemployed Lowest ever score Unemployment falls below 1 million for first time in 25 years May May May May May May May May May May May May May May May May May 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index 31
  • 32. 32 Britain 2013: Yes! Crime is falling • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone.
  • 33. 33
  • 34. and not just in Britain: … Source: The Economist, 20 July 2013 34
  • 35. 35 Yes, but Hmm… • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone.
  • 36. Is it making us feel that much better? Below are a number of statements about how Britain and our public services have changed over the last few years. For each one I would like you to tell me whether you think it is true or false: 2013 Violent crime is rising 51 2005 83 2013 Crime is falling 2005 Police numbers are 2013 the highest ever 2005 Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 28 20 13 43 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
  • 37. The local and the national again... Thinking about ..., how much of a problem do you think each of the following are….? % A very or fairly big problem Crime Immigration Teenagers hanging around the streets Rubbish or litter lying around Unemployment Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 Local area Gap UK as a whole 48 83 76 50 46 +35 +26 70 71 48 71 +24 +23 92 +21 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
  • 38. And we DO worry: The Brits are the biggest worriers when it comes to crime 38 Q. Which three of the following topics do you find the most worrying in your country? Crime and violence UK 53% Sweden 51% Netherlands 46% Italy 40% 36% Canada US 35% Australia 34% France Germany Spain 33% 24% 23% South Korea 22% Poland 22% Source: Ipsos MORI Global @dvisor © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Base: 22,224 online consumer citizens, 14 April-7 May 2009
  • 39. 39 Yes, but and anyway… • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone.
  • 40. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
  • 41. 41 There are new types of crime for us all to be worrying • Of Twitter users about… a are likely to recommend brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone.
  • 42. …meanwhile, back in my local area… © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
  • 43. 43 When I type “local policing” into my search engine…
  • 44. …I get LOTS of information about all the crimes STILL happening in my area…. 44
  • 45. Similar experience when I’m out and about… Does this make me feel more safe or less safe? 45
  • 46. 46
  • 47. 47
  • 48. 48 Fast-forward to 2015… Public opinion and crime at the next General Election? • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone.
  • 49. 49 2015: Conservatives are a bit ahead as “best party on crime”? • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone.
  • 50. On crime, the Conservatives have a clear (but not dramatic) lead at the moment… Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party UKIP 22% 19% Asylum/ immigration 6% 11% 31% 19% Crime & anti-social behaviour 6% 3% Europe 22% 21% 9% 18% Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 50
  • 51. Labour lead on other issues… Conservative party Labour party 51 Liberal Democrat party UKIP 25% 31% Education 8% 1% 21% 36% Healthcare 6% 1% 26% 30% Unemployment 5% 2% 18% 32% Housing 6% 1% Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • 52. 52 2015: (Most) police can be trusted? • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone.
  • 53. Veracity Index – unlikely to change in next 2 years? 53 I am going to read out some different types of people. For each, please tell me if you would generally trust them to tell the truth or not. % Not trust Doctors Teachers Scientists Judges Television news readers Clergymen/priests Police The ordinary man/woman in the street Civil Servants Pollsters Trade union officials Business leaders Estate agents MPs in general Journalists Bankers Politicians generally Base: 1,018 British adults 18+, 9th - 11th February 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public 9 11 11111 13 24 27 28 26 38 34 47 57 70 70 72 75 77 % Trust 89 86 83 82 69 66 65 64 53 50 41 34 24 23 21 21 18 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • 54. 54 2015: Probably not a great plan to say “we are making cuts to policing” • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone.
  • 55. “Don’t cut the Police” is the public’s starting point 55 Q. Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government spends the most money on? Q. Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government should cut the most money from? Government spends most money 50 The NHS/Healthcare 45 Benefit payments 28 Defence and armed forces 22 Overseas aid Government should cut 55 Overseas aid 44 Benefit payments 28 Defence and armed forces Local authority services 10 Social services 14 Social services 8 State pensions 12 The NHS/Healthcare 5 Schools 11 Police 4 State pensions Care for the elderly 3 2 1 9 Police 5 Care for the elderly 3 Local authority services Schools Other 5 Other 9 Don’t know 6 Don’t know 7 Base: 1,018 British adults 18+, 9th - 11th February 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • 56. Don’t cut the Police. Or Health. Or Schools. Or Pensions… 56 Q. Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government spends the most money on? Q. Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government should cut the most money from? Government spends most money 50 The NHS/Healthcare 45 Benefit payments 28 Defence and armed forces 22 Overseas aid Government should cut 55 Overseas aid 44 Benefit payments 28 Defence and armed forces Local authority services 10 Social services 14 Social services 8 State pensions 12 The NHS/Healthcare 5 Schools 11 Police 4 State pensions Care for the elderly 3 2 1 9 Police 5 Care for the elderly 3 Local authority services Schools Other 5 Other 9 Don’t know 6 Don’t know 7 Base: 1,018 British adults 18+, 9th - 11th February 2013 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  • 57. 57 2015: Generally things are staying “about the same” in my area…? • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone.
  • 58. Staying the same (in the main....) 58 On balance, based on your personal experience, do you think the following public services have got better or worse over the past 12 months or have they stayed the same? 0 10 Primary education Refuse collection 6 4 Secondary education 1 40 50 80 13 The police 3 9 Much better 20 22 41 Stayed the same Base: Online British adults aged 16-75 who are users of each service (n in brackets), 9-11 November 2012 18 A little worse 7 5 Much worse 2 8 11 19 52 A little better 3 16 47 10 100 14 59 3 90 17 56 9 Version 1 | Public 70 64 13 Public transport © Ipsos MORI 60 49 12 5 NHS Hospitals 30 18 3 NHS GP 20 2 5 6 6 9 19 4 10 Don't know/can't say Source: Ipsos MORI/RSA
  • 59. 59 2015: The police are tolerably well run (we think)? • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone.
  • 60. 66% in 1987, 62% in 2009, ? In 2015? 60 “Do you think the police is well run or not well run” % Well run 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Pre war (before 1945) © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000) Trend
  • 61. 61 2015: You can change the way things are organised if you like… • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone.
  • 62. 62 2015: You can change the way things are organised if you like, but don’t expect us to notice • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone.
  • 63. 63 CASE STUDY: The police and crime commissioner elections… • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone.
  • 64. 64 3% know “a great deal” about them” • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand 5-16 October 2012 more than they follow, and 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone.
  • 65. 65 8% know the name of • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their Autumn 2013 mobile phone. their PCC
  • 66. 66 You can change the way things are organised if you like, but DON’T mess things up • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone.
  • 67. Four Things We Think We Know About Public Services 67 1. People value the security provided by public services 2. Fairness is key – often equated with universal provision 3. People want to protect what they have 1. Divided over need for cuts to tackle deficit 2. Even though all agree huge efficiency savings are possible 4. Private sector involvement is a low salience issue + - © Ipsos MORI Efficient, dealing with failure, experience Profits, accountability, losing what we cherish Version 1 | Public
  • 68. 68 General Election 2015 In summary… • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone.
  • 69. 69 2015: Crime & policing will be an issue, but probably not THE issue? • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone.
  • 70. The position in 2010. How different will 2015 be? 70 Looking ahead of the next General Election, which, if any, of these issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for? All at 3% or above Managing the economy 32% Healthcare Education Asylum/immigration Taxation Unemployment Crime/ anti-soc. behaviour Benefits Care for older & disabled people Pensions Afghanistan Protecting natural env./climate change Housing Iraq Public transport/roads Defence 26% 23% 14% 12% 11% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% Base: 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public
  • 71. 71 HOWEVER… • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone.
  • 72. Can Britain have a more “sophisticated” debate on all this? Public keen on prisons, but also ready to discuss “rehabilitation”… • Of Twitter users are likely to recommend a brand they follow, and more than 1/3 access Twitter via their mobile phone. 72
  • 73. The public prioritise maintaining police numbers over other potential cost-saving measures 73 Q: If the Criminal Justice System was to face lower levels of spending, which of these, if any, would you be most/least willing to accept? % Least % Most Fewer education programmes in prisons More fines (eg speeding tickets, parking fines) Fewer rehabilitation programmes for drugs & alcohol users Fewer prison sentences and more community sentences 4 15 16 45 Base: 1,041 online British adults aged 16-64, 4-7 Sept 2009 Version 1 | Public 13 7 2 None of these © Ipsos MORI 18 6 13 Less monitoring of people on probation Fewer police 38 1 6
  • 74. Most people do not feel prison/probation services reduce reoffending 74 Q How effective do you think the xxx service is at reducing re-offending…? % Not at all effective Prison Service Probation Service © Ipsos MORI % Not very effective 52% 48% 14 12 % Quite effective % Don’t know 38 24 1 25% 23 36 23 2 25% 27 Base: 906 adults in England and Wales, January 2009 Version 1 | Public % Very effective
  • 75. But we should still build more prisons! 75 Q. As you may know, Britain has a bigger proportion of its population in prison than many other countries, and Britain’s prisons are nearly full. For each of the following ways of dealing with this, do you think they should or should not be used? Should not Send fewer people to prison 57% 36% Make prison sentences 79% shorter Build more prisons © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Net Should -21 -66 13% 24% 74% +50 Source: Ipsos MORI/Sun, 2006 Base: 1,001 British public aged 18+, 12-17 January 2006
  • 76. Even though – widespread belief that prison does not reduce reoffending… Q Which two or three of these do you think would do most to reduce crime in Britain? 57% 59% 55% Better parenting 49% 46% 45% 49% 46% 49% 55% 53% 41% 41% 41% 40% Better discipline in schools More police on the beat More constructive activities for young people 21% 23% 27% 21% 19% 19% 19% 29% Capital punishment for murder More effective programmes to change behaviour More offenders in prison Introducing a national identity card © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public 67% 11% 11% 10% 8% 10% 24% 23% 20% Base: Representative samples of British residents (c.1,000 - 2,000). 2009 2004 2003 2001 76
  • 77. The public are generally positive about “rehabilitation”, but there is some social desirability in how people answer? 77 % Strongly disagree % Tend to disagree % Tend to agree % Strongly agree Don’t know/ neutral Rehabilitation is the best way of preventing offenders from committing further crimes Rehabilitation is generally a waste of time and effort 5 14 15 Rehabilitation does not work for all offenders but is the most effective solution for offenders who want to stop offending 33 43 23 26 18 20% 9 53 20% 22 Base: 1,868 British adults, fieldwork dates 14-20 May 2010. Split sample for top two statements. © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Source: Ipsos MORI 16%
  • 78. When we ask the public and serving offenders what will make the most difference, ‘help in finding work’ is top priority for both 78 Q What types of approaches and activities do you think are currently used in the rehabilitation of people who have committed crimes? Those mentioned by 10%+ 26 Education courses 23 23 Drug programmes/help with drugs Help finding employment 18 18 Help with alcohol problems Teaching of new skills/trades 13 13 This is what both the Help understand impact of actions Help with accommodation Help bring back to society Mediation/help to say sorry Anger management Support to address issues (non specific) Don’t know/can’t say 11 public and current offenders actually think will 10 make most difference 10 10 27 Base: 1,868 British adults, fieldwork dates 14-20 May 2010 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Source: Ipsos MORI
  • 79. Thank you Simon Atkinson Assistant Chief Executive 22 November 2013 @SimonMAtkinson