Beyond the Bubble: Ipsos MORI at the Liberal Democrat Conference

Liberal Democrat Conference 2011Gideon Skinner, Ipsos MORI

Howdeepis thehole?

Support for the Lib Dems has fallen awaysince the election How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 2005 2010 General Clegg becomes General Election Campbell leader (Dec 07) Election becomes leader50 (March 06)40 37% 35%3020 13%10 0 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 May-03 May-04 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 Sep-03 Nov-03 Sep-04 Nov-04 Sep-05 Nov-05 Sep-06 Nov-06 Sep-07 Nov-07 Sep-08 Nov-08 Sep-09 Nov-09 Sep-10 Nov-10 Sep-11 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

And is lower than usual in “peace time” How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 2005 2010 General Clegg becomes General Election Campbell leader (Dec 07) Election becomes leader50 (March 06)40 37% 35%3020 13%10 0 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 May-03 May-04 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 Sep-03 Nov-03 Sep-04 Nov-04 Sep-05 Nov-05 Sep-06 Nov-06 Sep-07 Nov-07 Sep-08 Nov-08 Sep-09 Nov-09 Sep-10 Nov-10 Sep-11 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Most 2010 Lib Dem voters would not now vote LDHow would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Voted Tory Voted Lab Voted LD in 2010 in 2010 in 2010 Still Conservative/Labour/LibDem and certain to vote Still Conservative/Labour/Lib Dem but not certain to vote Not Conservative/Labour/LibDem any more 18% 14% 30% 24% 58%21% 61% 62% 12% Base: c. 4,000 GB adults 18+, May-August 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

While Nick Clegg has seen the best of timesand the worst of times…. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? (Net ratings = satisfied minus dissatisfied)Best ever* Lib/LD(Ashdown, May 1997) +58%Clegg best +53%(April 2010) *Since first comparable MORI measure (1977) Base: c. 1,000-2,000 British adults 18+ in each survey Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

While Nick Clegg has seen the best of timesand the worst of times…. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? (Net ratings = satisfied minus dissatisfied)Best ever* Lib/LD(Ashdown, May 1997) +58%Clegg best +53%(April 2010)Clegg now -28%(Sept 2011)Clegg worst -32%(May 2011)Worst ever* Lib/LD -28%(Steel, Jan 1988) *Since first comparable MORI measure (1977) Base: c. 1,000-2,000 British adults 18+ in each survey Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Who are youappealing to – andwho have you lost?

Who are you appealing to – and who have you lost? Some people describe their political views as being left wing or right wing. How would you describe your own views, would you say they are…? % Left wing % Left of % Centre % Right of centre % Right wing centreYour own views 9 15 33 16 8Con voters 32 34 33 14Lab voters 19 28 25 8 7LD voters 10 29 37 10 5 Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 15th - 17th October 2010 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor “Don’t knows” not shown

Most 2010 Lib Dem voters would not now vote LDHow would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Voted Tory Voted Lab Voted LD in 2010 in 2010 in 2010 Still Conservative/Labour/LibDem and certain to vote Still Conservative/Labour/Lib Dem but not certain to vote Not Conservative/Labour/LibDem any more 18% 14% 30% 24% 58%21% 61% 62% 12% Base: c. 4,000 GB adults 18+, May-August 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Most 2010 Lib Dem voters would not now vote LDHow would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Voted Tory Voted Lab Voted LD in 2010 in 2010 in 2010 Still Conservative/Labour/LibDem and certain to vote Still Conservative/Labour/Lib Dem but not certain to vote Not Conservative/Labour/LibDem any more A quarter of Lib Dems 18% 14% 18% have swung to Labour 7% 30% 24%21% 61% 62% 12% 33% Base: c. 4,000 GB adults 18+, May-August 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Can you guess which past PM is most admired?Which one of the following Prime Ministers do you consider the mostcapable leader? % All adults % LD “defectors” % LD “stickers” 27% Blair 11% Brown 10% Cameron 36% Thatcher 7% Major 9% None/DK Base: 508 British adults 18+ (including 76 saying they voted LibDem in 2010 – note small base), 17-19 June 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Can you guess which past PM is most admired?Which one of the following Prime Ministers do you consider the mostcapable leader? % All adults % LD “defectors” % LD “stickers” 27% Blair 52% 11% Brown 13% 10% Cameron 4% 36% Thatcher 24% 7% Major 3% 9% None/DK 4% Base: 508 British adults 18+ (including 76 saying they voted LibDem in 2010 – note small base), 17-19 June 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Can you guess which past PM is most admired?Which one of the following Prime Ministers do you consider the mostcapable leader? % All adults % LD “defectors” % LD “stickers” 27% Blair 52% 13% 11% Brown 13% 3% 10% Cameron 4% 17% 36% Thatcher 24% 51% 7% Major 3% 11% 9% None/DK 4% 5% Base: 508 British adults 18+ (including 76 saying they voted LibDem in 2010 – note small base), 17-19 June 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Difficult time to be ingovernment

The economy is the number one issueWhat do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britaintoday? 70 Economy 60 50 40 Unemployment 30 20 10 0 May May May May May May May May May May May May May May May 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

Widespread concern about the effects of cutsAnd how concerned, if at all, are you about the effects of the cuts onyou and your family in the next 12 months? Not at all concerned Don’t know 6%1% Very concerned 20% 35% Not very concerned 38% Fairly concerned Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 18th - 20th February 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

But that’s not the wholestory - the Coalition effect

No one party having an overall majority is seen asa bad thing for the countryDo you think it is a good think or a bad thing for the country that no partyachieved an overall majority? May 2010 April 2011 Don’t know Good thing Don’t know Good thing 8% 8% 40% 34% 52% 58%Bad thing Bad thing Base: 1,000 British adults 18+ Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Conservatives seen to be making most of the decisions in the CoalitionFrom what you know so far, which of these comes closes to your view? The Conservatives are making most of the decisions in the new government The new government is a genuine coalition in which decisions are made jointly between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats Don’t know Neither June 2010 April 2011 6% 8% 2% 4% 25% 41% 51% 63% Source: Ipsos MORI/Reuters Political Monitor Base: 1,253 British adults 18+, 18th-20th June 2010, 1,005 British adults 12th-14th Nov 2010; 1000 British adults 18+, 15th-17th April 2011

Conservatives seen as truer to their pre-electionplans than Lib DemsBefore the general election, both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats saidthey would address the national deficit. Which party do you think has been truer totheir plans? Conservatives Neither/Don’t Know 36% 44% 13% 8% Both equally Liberal Democrats Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 11th - 13th March 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

Lib Dem voters prioritise principles – even in a CoalitionWhich, in any, of the following statements comes closest to your opinion on howparties should work together in coalition? The parties should stand up for The parties should work together to the policies they believe in, even reach agreement, even if this means if this makes it more difficult to giving up on policies they promised make decisions and taking on new policies All 49% 47% Voted Con 36% 61% Voted Lab 61% 37% Voted LD 60% 34% Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 20-24 May 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

So although “winning” was supposed to help your chances…..How would you vote on May 6 if you thought the Liberal Democrats had asignificant chance of winning the election nationally? Other 6% 25% Conservatives Liberal 49% Democrats 19% Labour Lib Dem lead = +24 Base: 1,509 British adults 18+, 18th - 19th April 2010 Source: YouGov

Instead you’re seen as divided, and losing out on your principles…..I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that havebeen said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you thinkapply to the… Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party Keeps its promises Will promise anything to win votes Divided Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

…but not made up for it on credibility to governI am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that havebeen said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you thinkapply to the… Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party Keeps its promises Understands the problems facing Britain Has a good team of leaders Will promise anything to win votes Divided Extreme Looks after the interests of people like me Fit to govern Out of date Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

So whatdoes thisall mean?

Final thoughtsBeing in government hasn’t helped your public image – All hard choices but no hard benefitYou’ve lost the ‘soft left’ and the protest vote – but there’s still a bigcentre ground out there – Is about winning them back, or building a new centre identity?So, how do you differentiate yourselves without destroying theCoalition? – Tories might survive a snap election, but the Lib Dems would not

Gideon Skinner, Ipsos MORIGideon.Skinner@ipsos.com020 7347 3000

Beyond the Bubble: Ipsos MORI at the Liberal Democrat Conference

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