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Beyond the Bubble: Ipsos MORI at the Conservative Party Conference 2013
 

Beyond the Bubble: Ipsos MORI at the Conservative Party Conference 2013

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Ipsos MORI held a fringe event at the Conservative Party conference, which aimed to move beyond the Westminster village to consider how the average person sees the political parties and the state of ...

Ipsos MORI held a fringe event at the Conservative Party conference, which aimed to move beyond the Westminster village to consider how the average person sees the political parties and the state of Britain today. The fringe event focused on the Conservative Party's standing in the public mind and whether it can increase its share of the vote at the next election beyond its 2010 result of 37%. Panellists: Laura Sandys MP, David Skelton (Renewal), Joe Murphy (London Evening Standard), Gideon Skinner (Ipsos MORI), Ben Page (chair, Ipsos MORI)

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    Beyond the Bubble: Ipsos MORI at the Conservative Party Conference 2013 Beyond the Bubble: Ipsos MORI at the Conservative Party Conference 2013 Presentation Transcript

    • #beyondthebubble Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research Ipsos MORI
    • #beyondthebubble
    • 3 #beyondthebubble 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 37% 10% 34% Base: c. 1,000 British adults, all giving voting intention Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Since 2010 Labour has consistently led in the polls How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 11% June-Dec 2010: Avg. -1.5pt Lab lead Jan ’11-Mar ‘12: Avg. 4pt Lab lead April ’12-April’13: Avg. 10pt Lab lead May – Sept ‘13: 6 pt Lab lead
    • 4 #beyondthebubble But what about the share, not the lead? 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Con share % 6 mth moving average How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Base: c. 1,000 British adults, all giving voting intention Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor April-May 2012
    • 5 #beyondthebubble 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Shareofgoverningparty Labour: 1997 – 2010 (6 mth moving average) Base: c. 500-1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from new government taking power Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone. Data collected prior to Nov 2002 is based on all expressing an intention to vote, data from Nov 1992 is based on all certain to vote 2001 GE 1987 GE Conservatives: 1979-1997 (6 mth moving average) Conservatives: 2010-2012 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? The electoral cycle? 2005 GE 1983 GE 1992 GE
    • 6 #beyondthebubble 2015 is a difficult but not impossible task… 2.8 1.1 1.7 1.2 4.8 5.4 4.0 1.8 3.2 5.1 2 3 2.7 0.9 2.1 1.8 2 10.2 5 1950 1951 1955 1959 1964 1966 1970 1974 (Feb) 1974 (Oct) 1979 1983 1987 1992 1997 2001 2005 2010 2015 Swing to Con Swing to Lab Source: House of Commons Library Swings at general elections
    • 7 #beyondthebubble Source: House of Commons Library 2015 is a difficult but not impossible task… 2.8 1.1 1.7 1.2 4.8 5.4 4.0 1.8 3.2 5.1 2 3 2.7 0.9 2.1 1.8 2 10.2 5 1950 1951 1955 1959 1964 1966 1970 1974 (Feb) 1974 (Oct) 1979 1983 1987 1992 1997 2001 2005 2010 2015 Swing to Con Swing to Lab Swings at general elections
    • 8 #beyondthebubble 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Base: c. 240-300 2010 Conservative voters adults each month. Based on all not all certain to vote Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Are 2010 Conservative voters staying or going? Current voting intentions each month (all expressing an opinion) among those who said they voted Conservative in 2010 Would vote for other party Undecided/refused/ would not vote Would still vote Conservative % See next slide 83% 76%
    • 9 #beyondthebubble 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Base: c. 240-300 2010 Conservative voters adults each month. Based on all not all certain to vote Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Among 2010 Conservative voters who are switching – where to? Current voting intentions each month (all expressing an opinion) among those who said they voted Conservative in 2010 Labour Liberal Democrat UKIP %
    • 10 #beyondthebubble 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Base: c. 240-300 2010 Conservative voters adults each month. Based on all not all certain to vote Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Among 2010 Conservative voters who are switching – where to? Current voting intentions each month (all expressing an opinion) among those who said they voted Conservative in 2010 Labour Liberal Democrat UKIP %
    • 11 #beyondthebubble This is highest level of support for a “fourth party” since the SDP in 1981 – who are UKIP voters? Men Oldest age profile of any party Read the Daily Mail or Telegraph (not the Guardian!) Generally dissatisfied with everyone (government, Cameron, Miliband, Clegg) Based in the Midlands and the South (outside London) In Conservative held seats – though more often safe seats than marginals More worried about Europe than anyone else – but even more worried about the economy & immigration
    • #beyondthebubble Are there parts the Conservative vote does not reach?
    • 13 #beyondthebubble 5% 6% 1% 2% 6% 0% 8% 9% 12%Oct 1974 1979 1983 1992 2005 1987 1997 2001 Con lead over Lab higher among womenCon lead over Lab higher among men 2010 The declining tradition of Conservative women is a long-term issue
    • 14 #beyondthebubble The “women’s vote” now… Conservative lead = -5 Men 31% 36% 9% 15% 9% Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP Other Women Conservative lead = -13 29% 42% 10% 9% 10% Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase 4, 180 British adults 18+, January – August 2013 “How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?”* *All certain to vote +8 -7 -13 +11 -7 -16
    • 15 #beyondthebubble Blue collar women no longer voting blue 29% 42% 10% 9% 10% ABs: -5 C1s: -10 C2s: -11 DEs: -3
    • 16 #beyondthebubble The gender gap is most clearly pronounced among younger voters Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor “How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?”* *All certain to vote 31 30 31 24 25 33 39 36 33 48 48 36 10 9 9 9 11 11 6 14 19 4 7 13 18-34 35-54 55+ 18-34 35-54 55+ Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat UKIP Men Women Base 4, 180 British adults 18+, January – August 2013
    • 17 #beyondthebubble “How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?” Generational analysis shows the Conservatives’ traditional reliance on older voters – but changing? 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000) % Conservative All data points represent > 1,000 responses Source: Ipsos MORI
    • #beyondthebubble
    • 19 #beyondthebubble The political map now…
    • 20 #beyondthebubble Strong in the south… 37% 28% 12% 15% 8%
    • 21 #beyondthebubble …apart from in London 29% 44% 11% 9% 7%
    • 22 #beyondthebubble Small Labour lead in the Midlands 32% 38% 9% 14% 7%
    • 23 #beyondthebubble The north is very red 26% 47% 8% 12% 7%
    • 24 #beyondthebubble Tories are barely seen in Scotland and Wales 20% 39%7% 6% 28%
    • #beyondthebubble Labour’s lead…three reasons why it might be fragile
    • #beyondthebubble 1. Views of the leaders
    • 27 #beyondthebubble Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader Ed Miliband’s approval ratings are low How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? MILIBAND (2010-2013) Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-fa methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Netsatisfaction
    • 28 #beyondthebubble Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003) (Hague and IDS low) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? MILIBAND (2010-2013) Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-fa methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Netsatisfaction
    • 29 Netsatisfaction How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister? And Cameron’s ratings are steadying CAMERON Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Prime Minister Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
    • 30 Netsatisfaction How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister? Compares to other Prime Ministers… THATCHER BLAIR MAJOR BROWN CAMERON Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Prime Minister Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
    • 31 #beyondthebubble#beyondthebubble Cameron leads on more Prime Ministerial qualities I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to… 79% 50% 70% 52% 40% 53% 47% 40% 58% 52% 49% 41% 32% 28% 20% 19% MilibandCameron Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th-9th September 2013 A capable leader Understands the problems facing Britain Good in a crisis Has sound judgement Out of touch with ordinary people More style than substance Has got a lot of personality Looks after some sections of society more than others
    • #beyondthebubble 2. Economic credibility
    • 33 #beyondthebubble Base: 970 British adults 18+, 30th August – 8th September 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index The economy is the most important issue What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? 45 33 32 23 21 16 13 13 11 10 Top mentions % Economy Race relations/Immigration Inflation/Prices NHS Unemployment Crime/Law and order Defence/foreign affairs Education/schools Poverty/Inequality Housing
    • 34 #beyondthebubble 0 10 20 30 40 50 Mar-90 Sep-90 Mar-91 Sep-91 Mar-92 Sep-92 Mar-93 Sep-93 Mar-94 Sep-94 Mar-95 Sep-95 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 And the Conservatives hold the mantle of economic credibility Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party? Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
    • 35 #beyondthebubble 0 10 20 30 40 50 Mar-90 Sep-90 Mar-91 Sep-91 Mar-92 Sep-92 Mar-93 Sep-93 Mar-94 Sep-94 Mar-95 Sep-95 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 And the Conservatives hold the mantle of economic credibility Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party? Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 38% 20% 5%
    • 36 #beyondthebubble Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Perhaps not surprising given summer of rising economic optimism… Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index = % improve minus % get worse
    • 37 #beyondthebubble Though no-one has won the living standards debate Do you think you and you family would be better off under a Conservative government or a Labour government, or do you think it would make no difference? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013 Conservative lead = -1 22% 52% 23% Conservative government Labour government Make no difference
    • 38 #beyondthebubble Tories seen as a more credible government I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the… Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013 14% 21% 17% 27% 38% 27% 47% 39% Fit to govern Has a good team of leaders 41% 27% 44% 29% 55% 43% 44% 30% Understands the problems facing Britain Looks after the interest of people like me Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrats UKIP
    • #beyondthebubble
    • 40 #beyondthebubble#beyondthebubble The Conservatives are still the most disliked party Which of these statements come closest to your view of the Labour/Conservative/Liberal Democrat/United Kingdom Independence party? % dislike party
    • #beyondthebubble 3. Labour’s reliance on Liberal Democrats
    • 42 Will LibDem switchers come back? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 8,091 GB adults 18+, January-August 2013 Voted LD in 2010 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 26% 13% 29% 7% 5% 20% Other UKIP Conservatives Labour Still LD & certain to vote Still LD, not certain to vote
    • 43 Although tactical voting isn’t dead….. You said that you would vote for the … party. If you had to vote for another party, which party, if any, would it be? Base: 800 giving a voting intention, 7th-9th September 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Lab supporters Lib Dem supporters Conservatives 14 30 Labour - 31 Liberal Democrats 30 - UKIP 9 7 Other 16 20 Would not vote for another party/none 22 5 Don’t know 8 7
    • 44 Tactical voting isn’t dead….. You said that you would vote for the … party. If you had to vote for another party, which party, if any, would it be? Base: 800 giving a voting intention, 7th-9th September 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Lab supporters Lib Dem supporters Con supporters UKIP supporters Conservatives 14 30 - 37 Labour - 31 13 17 Liberal Democrats 30 - 33 9 UKIP 9 7 23 - Other 16 20 6 17 Would not vote for another party/none 22 5 17 16 Don’t know 8 7 9 4
    • #beyondthebubble
    • 46 #beyondthebubble Final thoughts  The economy is picking up  David Cameron remains an asset  Still the party of the head….  But: – ....not the party of the heart – ‘no-go’ areas of support, while UKIP chips away at base – historical comparisons aren’t kind
    • Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com
    • Questions and Discussion