Beyond the Bubble: Ipsos MORI at the Conservative Party Conference 2011

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Ben Page's presentation at our fringe event at the 2011 Conservative Party Conference

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Beyond the Bubble: Ipsos MORI at the Conservative Party Conference 2011

  1. 1. Conservative Conference 2011Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI
  2. 2. Is 2015 in the bag?
  3. 3. Reasons to becheerful
  4. 4. Although Labour have a lead, you have broadly 4kept your core supportHow would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 2010 General Election 37% 35% 13%Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  5. 5. Labour’s support has mainly come from dissatisfied 5LibDemsBase: British adults 18+ voting/with voting intention Source: Ipsos MORI Election/Monitor aggregates
  6. 6. And satisfaction is falling – though not 6unusually soHow satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the Government is running the country? 1997 Net satisfied 1987 1983 2001 2010 1979 2005 1992 General ElectionBase: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political MonitorNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
  7. 7. Cameron is astrong leader
  8. 8. Half are dissatisfied with his performance – 8though again that’s not unusualHow satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister? CAMERON BLAIRNet satisfaction Number of months from becoming Prime Minister BROWN MAJOR THATCHERBase: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political MonitorNote: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
  9. 9. And he leads on key Prime Ministerial qualities 9I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about variouspoliticians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to… Cameron Miliband Clegg 59% A capable leader 37% 31% 47% Good in a crisis 24% 22% 45% Has sound judgement 38% 31% Understands the problems 54% 52% facing Britain 49% Likeable 57% 43% 58% Puts the interest of the country above 39% those of his own party 33% 37% 57% Has a clear vision for Britain 37% 33%Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  10. 10. (although also seen as most out of touch – as 10was Blair…)I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about variouspoliticians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to… Cameron Miliband Clegg 63% Out of touch with ordinary people 43% 52% 52% More style than substance 41% 52%Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  11. 11. And the party is also seen as most fit to govern…. 11I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about variouspolitical parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the… Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party 50% Understands the problems facing Britain 50% 45% 44%Has a good team of leaders 34% 30% 50% Fit to govern 38% 23%Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  12. 12. But also some negatives – you are seen as 12 extremeI am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about variouspolitical parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the… Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party 24% Keeps its promises 24% 16% 64% Will promise anything to win votes 64% 65% 49% Divided 55% 65% 28% Extreme 22% 16% Looks after the interests of 32% 41% people like me 32% 42% Out of date 45% 41%Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  13. 13. Potential bananaskins1. The economy
  14. 14. The economy is the number one issue 14What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Economy Unemployment Crime Immigration NHS EuropeBase: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
  15. 15. The British are among the world’s leading 15pessimists…Looking ahead 6 months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger,somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor, 19,755 online*Note that the total global average does not include this month’s two ad-hoc countries: Greece and Ireland. interviews with16/18–64 yr olds August 2011
  16. 16. Widespread concern about the effects of cuts 16And how concerned, if at all, are you about the effects of the cuts on you and your family in the next 12months? Not at all concerned Don’t know Very concerned Not very concerned Fairly concernedBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 18th - 20th February 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  17. 17. And most prefer cuts to be slow rather than fast 17And which of these comes closest to your opinion about how the government goes about reducing thedeficit? It is important to cut spending quickly even if this means immediate job March 2011 losses, because it will be better for the economy in the long term It is better to cut spending more slowly, to reduce the impact on public services and the economy Neither Don’t knowBase:1,000 British adults 18+, 11-13 March 2011 Source: Economist/Ipsos MORI
  18. 18. And yet you do hold the lead on the number 18one issueWhich party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, LiberalDemocrats or some other party? Why no party won the GE outright? 33% 23% 8%Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  19. 19. …and will get some credit if it improves 19If the British economy improves in the next 12 months, who do you think will be mostly responsible? The Conservative Party The Liberal Democrat Party 33% Conservatives and Lib Dems together The state of the global economy The previous Labour government The banks Don’t know OtherBase: 505 British adults 18+, 20th-24th May 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  20. 20. - But share the blame if it gets worse 20If the British economy gets worse in the next 12 months, who do you think will be mostly to blame? The Conservative Party 27% The Liberal Democrat Party Conservatives and Lib Dems together The state of the global economy The previous Labour government The banks Don’t know OtherBase: 503 British adults 18+, 20th-24th May 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  21. 21. 2. The Coalition
  22. 22. Brits haven’t fallen in love with the idea of 22coalitionsDo you think it is a good think or a bad thing for the country that no party achieved an overall majority? May 2010 April 2011 Don’t know Good thing Don’t know Good thingBad thing Bad thingBase: 1,000 British adults 18+ Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  23. 23. Tensions in the Coalition? 23From what you know so far, which of these comes closes to your view? The new government is a genuine coalition in which Con voters decisions are made jointly in 2010 between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats The Conservatives are making most of the decisions in the new government Neither LibDem Don’t know voters in 2010Base: 1000 British adults 18+, 15th-17th April 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI/Reuters Political Monitor
  24. 24. 3. Still the nastyparty?
  25. 25. The party is the most disliked…. 25 Conservative Labour LibDem Like the party Don’t like the partyBase: 1,162 British adults 18+, 21st - 24th January 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  26. 26. Debate on reform didn’t help trust on the NHS 26Which party do you think has the best policies on health care, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democratsor some other party? March 2010 June 2011 Conservatives Conservatives Labour LabourMarch 2010 - Base: 1,533 British adults 18+, 19th - 22nd June 2010 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political MonitorJune 2011 - Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 17th - 19th June 2011
  27. 27. People don’t think ‘we are all in it together’ 27Do you think that the government’s plans to reduce the national deficit will hit rich people or poor peoplehardest, or will they affect everyone equally? Don’t Know Will hit rich people hardest Will affect everyone equally Will hit poor people hardestBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 11th - 13th March 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
  28. 28. While you have your traditional strengths…. 28Which party do you trust most to… the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party? Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party Restore faith in the political 27% 22% system 10% Encourage individuals to take 46% 22% responsibility for themselves 7% 42% Preserve law and order 25% 6% 37% Promote family values 28% 8%Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  29. 29. So Labour has theirs….. 29Which party do you trust most to…the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party? Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party 22% Heal the divisions in British society 28% 13% 20% Be fair to all sections of society 34% 18% 23% Give children and young people a good start in life 39% 11%Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  30. 30. And women are particularly critical – less likely 30to mention good points…..I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about variouspolitical parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the Conservative party? Men Women Keeps its promises Understands the problems facing Britain Has a good team of leaders Looks after the interests of people like me Fit to governBase: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  31. 31. …and more likely to mention negative ones 31I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about variouspolitical parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the Conservative party? Men Women Will promise anything to win votes Divided Extreme Out of dateBase: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  32. 32. Reasons to be cheerful? 32Credible as party of government, best leader,and traditional strengths – appealing to headsrather than hearts right for this time?Despite concerns, people still trust you tomake the decisions on the economy (so far)But all depends on the economy: if it getsworse and cuts really start to bite – or even ifit just takes a long time - what other positivesdo you have to offer?
  33. 33. Thank youBen Page, Ipsos MORIben.page@ipsos.com020 7347 3000

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