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Invest in Post War Syria
The tide has turned in the grueling Syrian Civil War. Opposition forces have taken another town in the North. United States has stated its willingness to provide non-lethal support for the rebels. The Syrian Opposition is already receiving arms from the likes of Saudi Arabia. Many believe that it is only a matter of time before Bashar Assad steps down from power and flees the country or is assassinated. Once the Assad family is no longer part of the picture negotiations between the remaining government and rebel forces may be possible. Baring that scenario, the increasingly well-armed opposition may simply win the war, much like what happened in Libya. Assuming that the war will come to an end in the next year or so, is it possible to profitably invest in post war Syria? How does one do fundamental analysis of such a situation? Here are a few thoughts on how to invest in post war Syria.
Invest in Post War Syria through Its Historic Trading Partners
When the war ends in Syria people will need to eat. Refugees will return. There will likely be international aid on a large scale. However, Syria has trading partners. Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq all share borders with Syria. Syria has been, to a degree, a client state of Russia. It remains to be seen how much influence Russia will retain if the Syrian government falls without a peace agreement. Local trading partners will likely resume business with their old business partners in Syria. Manufacturers, wholesalers, and trucking companies in Turkey will benefit and will likely investing post war Syria by beefing up their operations at home or investing directly in Syria. The same applies to Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon. We previously wrote about Three Good Offshore Investment Ideas in the Western Hemisphere. A forth good idea might be to invest in post war Syria. NASDAQ carries a Turkish ETF that outperformed most others across the world in 2012. If peace breaks out on the nation’s borders it could further stimulate the Turkish economy and raise the value of Turkish stocks traded as ADR’s in the USA.