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Forex Response as Sanctions on Russia Worsen
We expect to see a significant Forex response as sanctions on Russia worsen. Sanctions were increased on Russia’s energy sector as the civil war in Ukraine continues and a Malaysian commercial jet is shot down by a missile as it passed over eastern Ukraine. According to the Telegraph, UK,
The [downed airline] incident comes a day after sweeping US sanctions against Russia’s top oil producer and key energy companies had already shattered the illusory summer calm on Moscow’s markets, raising fears of an investment freeze and a protracted crisis that could last for years.
The rebels in eastern Ukraine are widely believed to be receiving material support and sanctuary from the Russian Federation. The approach of the West has been to begin the process of integrating Ukraine into the EU and visit sanctions on the energy and financial sectors of Russia. The end result could be the loss of financing for many Russian energy projects.
Yen Climbs versus the Euro
We can certainly expect to see the Ruble fall against other currencies as a Forex response as sanctions on Russia worsen. However, the Euro is likely to suffer too as tensions rise between Ukraine and Russia and Russia and the West. There is a five month high of the Yen versus the Euro as traders look to the safe haven Yen.
The yen appreciated to a five-month high versus the euro after the US and EU imposed a new round of sanctions against Russia in response to the situation in Ukraine, which fueled demand for safer assets.
Risk of Wider War in Ukraine Russia Theater
One is reminded of the Guns of August, the unraveling of relationships in the days prior to World War One in the downing of commercial Malay jet MH17 by rebels in Eastern Ukraine.