Investeurs chronicles 6

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Investeurs chronicles 6

  1. 1. November 2010, Volume: 6 Sensex 20156.89 Nifty 6071.65 Dollar 44.80 Gold 20120.00 Silver 40360.00 Crude Oil ($) 86.34 Investeurs Chronicles INSIDE • Current Chronicles • Cover Story – Micro Finance • Open Forum – Multi Dimensional Bilateral Relationship • Emerging Markets • Outlook – Gold • Financial Q • In Focus – Dilma Rousseff Investeurs Consulting P. Limited S-16, U.G.F, Green Park Ext. New Delhi-110016, www.investeurs.com
  2. 2. Current ChroniclesTata DOCOMO, the GSM arm of Tata Teleservices Limited, State-run PowerGrid Corporations follow-on public offerannounced the launch of its 3G services in India. It will be was oversubscribed 10.67 times till 1 pm on the final daythe first telecom player to have launched these services of the issue,12th November generating demand worth aafter the spectrum allocation. Players like Bharti Airtel, whopping Rs 81,092 crore. FPO through which theVodafone, Reliance Communications and others are to yet government is looking to garner Rs 7,600 crore, hasannounce the launch. received bids for 898.4 crore shares against 84.17 crore More… shares on offer, More… Index of Industrial production Industrial growth almostVideocon Industries along with US-based Liberty Mutual halved to 4.4 per cent in September against 8.2 per cent aGroup-- a leading global property and casualty insurer with year ago, pulled down by slow-down across segments.2009 revenues in excess of $31 billion-- signed a joint However, Industrial growth in the first half of this fiscal,venture agreement to enter the non-life insurance as measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP),segment. The joint venture will provide personal and stood at 10.2 per cent against 6.3 per cent a year ago.commercial insurance products through a range of More…distribution channels. More…Glenmark Pharmaceuticals is close to become the first The state-owned Bharat Sanchar Nigam (BSNL), whichIndian company to develop an original novel chemical suffered a Rs 2,611-crore loss last fiscal, the first in theentity (NCE) to treat diseases. company’s history, has decided to auction surplusAn NCE is a molecule developed in the early drug capacity on its long-distance network to privatediscovery stage, which after undergoing clinical trials companies, as it attempts to open up new revenuecould translate into a drug that could be a cure for some streams. More…disease . More…
  3. 3. C “Derive from the Deprived?” “Private Equity in Micro Finance”ov Newspapers are buzzing with such reports, MFIs business model of high interest rates, which were not thought of half a decade back. and near-zero defaults have drawn investorse Proponents of microfinance must have never from around the world. This coupled with a envisaged crossing paths with equity wide client base, both existing & future,r investments. But, of late, that has become turns it in to a virtual goldmine for the order of the day (see box at end of the article) investors. No wonder then, that, Singapore’sS Private equity investments in this domain Temasek, CLSA Capital and International have been of $230 million in the past two Financial Corp to private equity firmst “MicroVentures India, a private years, & future looks even more promising. Sandstone Capital, Unitus and Matrix, has equity fund that invests in Indian microfinance institutions (MFIs) have placed their bets on Indian microfinanceo microfinance institutions (MFIs), reportedly attracted private equity investment companies, as, SKS, Share Microfin, recently loaned INR 30 million totaling INR 3.86 billion (USD 84 million) Spandana, Ujjivan among others. Furtherr (approximately USD 680,000) to between January and June of this year – an there has been a surge in the number of Indian MFI Swadhaar Finserve.” increase of approximately 15 percent over the microfinance focused funds like the Loky first half of 2009. Such massive investment in Capital Group, Bellwether Microfinance Fund a socially oriented sector like microfinance and Aavishkaar Goodwell, among others. forces one to wonder if this has become a These funds are dedicated to investing in theBhartiya Samruddhi Finance business of generating gains on the back of equity of Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) inLimited (BSFL), a MFI and a part underprivileged. India, Understanding the basics first. Microfinance Symbiosisof the BASIX group, sold an INR or microcredit has been always a part of the As with investments in other industries, this2.5 billion (the equivalent of USD domestic financial scene, albeit diminutive. It too, is a symbiotic relationship, where, both56.3 million) stake to a group of hogged the limelight, for the first time in investors, & the investee (MFIs) stand to beundisclosed private equity firms.” 2006, when the Nobel Peace Prize went to benefitted. For private equity investor, the Bangladeshs Muhammad Yunus and his attraction of MFIs lies in two sets of figures: “Venture capital firm Canaan Grameen Bank, which championed the cause interest rates ranging from 30% to 60% and Partners has invested of lending out tiny, unsecured amounts to repayment rates exceeding 95%. Together, approximately Rs 45 crore in the poor. Since then the idea has catapulted in to they make MFIs extraordinarily profitable. Chennai headquarted Equitas serious money domain with a social rider. Microfinance.”
  4. 4. Cover Story “Private Equity in Micro Finance” MFIs have emerged as an investment hot spot previously unbanked individuals to efficiently to drift from original goal of MFIs: lending to for Private Equity (PE) due to its rapid growth access deposit accounts, government disbursals, marginalized sections of society. As bigger loan and high returns, growing at a Compound insurance products, and even secure payment sizes tend to reduce transaction costs, lending Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 105 per cent in platforms have been launched as a direct result of policies may lead to targeting of more well-off the last five years. investor support. PE investments, also, serve to segments of the population who can service The sector covers 100 million people strengthen balance sheets, demand better bigger loans, thereby, defeating the very worldwide with a total loan portfolio in excess corporate governance practices, thereby, resulting purpose of microcredit. of US$40bn. Initially, growth has been on the in stronger organizations. We have examples of the The other disquiet is slightly opposite to the back of the traditional funding sources, like constructive role played by private equity in other first one. PE fund inflow induced aggressive grants & donations, but had it not been for sectors. From technology to telecommunications to lending i.e. too much micro credit may lead to commercial capital participation, portfolio more recent, clean technology, PE investments over-indebtedness of borrowers, and eventual escalation would not have been this massive. have contributed handsomely to overall trapping in to a vicious circle of new loans for Rapid growth demands higher investments. productivity of various emerging sectors. servicing older ones. This came in to lime light Donation driven & bank led capital sources are In nut shell, private equity brings along scalability, when numerous suicides were reported in unable to meet investment requirements of an accountability & transparency in operations. Andhra Pradesh. industry growing at 75% per annum. Over the Where does the poor figures? Now, where? past two years, the five largest MFIs in the In such a win-win scenario for both MFIs, & PE country have been the beneficiaries of players, one often forgets to factor in the real Concerns around private equity in microfinance approximately US$180m in private equity drivers of the sector: the poor. What lies in there are valid, but, some levy should be attributed to investment, which has helped them to grow for them to gain out of this relationship? the prudence of the investor. A default prone their combined active client bases from 2.2 Advocates of PE investments talk of higher loan portfolio, no matter how large, is of no use. million to over 4.7 million, a compound investment in technology, and superior This ensures that the interests of private capital annual growth rate of 45%. Four of these competition amongst for-profit MFIs due to are aligned with those of the recipients of MFI organizations are now serving well over a increasing participation of private capital which credit - both parties benefit from growing a million active clients each. Private equity is no will result in lower interest rates, a higher quality quality loan portfolio, promoting greater longer option, but, rule of the game. of service, and a greater diversity of products. operational efficiencies and technological Then there are additional advantages of Positive impacts of PE investments are aplenty, but sophistication, and ultimately from accessing private equity investments too. Numerous new so are its pitfalls. Biggest concern is about the public capital markets. These benefits all serve business models, like, the branchless banking expectations of extraordinary growth rates by the to lower the operating costs of the MFI, technologies currently enabling millions of investor. Many fear that this will eventually lead therefore resulting in a lower cost of capital and
  5. 5. Cover Story “Private Equity in Micro Finance”more efficient service for the end client.The fact is that with billions of individuals stilloutside the purview of financial services,representing an estimated demand of US$300bnin loans, the future role of commercial capital willbe even more critical. It has become indispensableto the growth of microcredit and subsequentachievement of its entire potential. Quite simply,there is nowhere near enough grant capitalavailable to meet the funding requirements of theworlds microfinance institutions (MFIs) as theycontinue to scale.Logically, now the question should not be“Whether to involve PE firms in the microfinancesector?” but, “How can we build regulatorymechanisms so as to ensure the best interest ofthe beneficiaries?”
  6. 6. A multi-dimensional Bilateral Relationship Relations between nations are shaped by a It is, in fact, possible to arrive at a quantitative Thus, the number for P2P can be estimatedOpen Forum complex interplay of a variety of factors — guesstimate of the intensity and importance of from information pertaining to tourism historical, geographic, political, economic, the bilateral relationship between various data, migrant population, number of front- cultural, strategic and so on. Governments countries based on this simple formula. It is page stories in print media, or minutes of operate within given circumstances and it takes a possible to undertake a more sophisticated and television time devoted to news from that lot of political energy on the part of any head of quantitatively satisfying exercise by trying to country, popularity of cuisine and culture, government to alter the nature of a bilateral measure each component in terms of some interaction in sports and so on. In a relationship based purely on government-to- broad indicators, the way the UNDP’s Human democracy, the media’s view of other government interaction and relations. Development Report estimates the Human countries is shaped by all the three Indeed, as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told a Development Index by using proxies for health, variables, that are P, B and G, and the meeting of the US-India Business Council in education and livelihood status of people. media, in turn, shapes thinking at all three November 2009, “In today’s economically levels. integrated world, economic relationships are the bedrock on which social, cultural and political BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP INDEX (BRI) relationships are built. A strategic relationship Country P2P B2B G2G C2C that is not underpinned by a strong economic relationship is unlikely to prosper. On the other United States 5 4 3 12 hand, a web of economic relationships intensifies China 2 3 2 7 both business-to-business and people-to-people Russia 2 2 4 8 contacts, promoting a deeper and better understanding between countries. That is the Britain 4 4 3 11 kind of relationship we wish to see with this great France 3 4 3 10 country, the United States.” Germany 2 4 3 9 The bilateral relationship between countries that is the “country-to-country” (C2C) relationship is a Japan 3 3 3 9 sum of three distinct, even if interacting, aspects South Africa 2 3 3 8 of such bilateral relations. These three are: Pakistan 4 1 1 6 people-to-people (P2P), business-to-business (B2B) and government-to-government (G2G). The NOTE: The scale for each com ponent is 1 to 5, so the highest value equation can be stated simply as P2P+B2B+G2G = that can be reached is 15 and the low est value is 3, ruling out the possibility of zero. C2C.
  7. 7. Open ForumThe B2B variable can be more easily estimated In G2G, Russia still remains at the top but with But through his first year in office,using data relating to trade, investment, the growing strategic engagement and President Obama did and said things thatmovement of professionals and workers, joint increasing defence cooperation between India diminished the trust quotient.ventures and so on. It is more difficult to and the US, and now with the decision of the More recently, President Obama has beenquantify G2G, but one can use proxies like Obama administration to lift high-technology trying to retrieve lost ground and take thedefence purchases/sales, bilateral summits, trade export controls, the US is likely to move up very relationship back to where his predecessortreaties, cooperation in high-technology and quickly on the G2G ranking. Indeed, 10 years had left it. If he can convince Prime Ministerstrategic industries. ago the G2G score for the US would have been a Singh that he means what he says now,Based on these numbers, a Bilateral Relationship lowly 2 or even 1, against the backdrop of post- unlike when he wrote that letter in 2008,Index (BRI) can be constructed and countries Pokhran-II sanctions imposed against India. his visit can be declared a success. Winningranked in order of their importance for India. It is a testimony to the fundamental change in the trust of India’s Parliament, when heTake 10 countries that figure prominently in the the relationship, first initiated by Prime Minister addresses it today, the way Dr Singh wonmedia, and see how they rank on a 1 to 5 scale of Atal Behari Vajpayee and President Bill Clinton over the US Congress in July 2005 (with 35importance. In P2P rankings, the US, Britain and and then accelerated by the strategic interruptions of applause in a 39-minutePakistan would figure fairly high for different partnership launched by Prime Minister speech), is the key to getting the G2Greasons. The P2P interactions between India and Manmohan Singh and President George Bush number to 5!China, Russia, Germany and even Japan would be that the G2G score for India and the US willmuch lower. undoubtedly go up. But whether it will be stuckIn the B2B ranking, the US would now be at the at 4 or go all the way up to 5 will depend on thetop, along with countries like Britain, France and level of “trust” that President Barack Obama isGermany. China, of course, does more trade with able to inject into the G2G relationship.India than most but it would figure lower in President Obama started off brilliantly with aranking because of the structure of trade, and the well-crafted letter written to Prime Ministerlimited extent of real B2B partnership. Japan lags Singh in September 2008, even when he was onbehind only because it has been a latecomer and his campaign trail, wherein he said: “I would likehas been a hesitant investor till recently. to see US-India relations grow across the boardHowever, it is easy to see both China and Japan to reflect our shared interests, shared values, (Source: Business Standard)improving their ranking on the B2B scale. shared sense of threats and ever-burgeoning ties between our two economies and societies.”
  8. 8. Commodity Prices May Trigger Former Emerging Markets a 3.9 percent advance by the MSCI AsiaSoviet Rally: Russia Credit New deal to help indebted consumers in South excluding Japan Index. Foreign investors haveRussian and Kazakh debt is catching up with Africa sold $17.9 million more Philippine shares thanthe rest of emerging markets as commodities With credit-related court backlogs still sky high they bought this month, following record netprices rise after the U.S. decision to add and 47% of credit active consumers in arrears; purchases of $631.5 million in October, basedmoney to the economy. Russia’s government industry players on 11th November unveiled a on data compiled by Bloomberg going back tobond due in 2015 climbed after the Federal comprehensive set of voluntary measures to 1999.Reserve pledged Nov. 3 to buy $600 billion in streamline the debt review process. Proposed Bolsa Mexicana Changes Rules to IncreaseTreasury securities through next June, measures include greater transparency between Trading by Foreignerspushing the yield to 2.848 percent today, close credit providers and debt counselors, as well as Bolsa Mexicana de Valores SAB, operator ofto a record low. Benchmark bond yields in revised repayment terms for over indebted Mexico’s main stock and derivativesBrazil and South Africa, two other emerging- consumers. These terms have been agreed at exchanges, has changed rules to make it easiermarket commodities exporters, reached two- industry-wide level - a serious compromise by for foreign trading firms to buy and sell fromweek and 10-day highs in the same period. the banks which have until now opposed every outside the nation. case. The exchange operator is introducing marketRussia firms up huge natural gas deal with access services to attract more firms such asS.Korea Philippine Stocks to Extend Asias Worst Loss U.S. high-frequency traders, who alreadyRussia will ship at least 10 billion cubic metres on Valuation facilitate more than 20 percent of equities(350 billion cubic feet) of natural gas a year to The Philippine benchmark stock index, Asia’s volume in Mexico, Chairman and ChiefSouth Korea from 2017 under a preliminary worst performer this month, will extend losses Executive Officer Luis Tellez said in andeal to be signed 17th November, Moscows for the rest of 2010 as investors speculate a interview at Bloomberg’s headquarters in Newenergy giant Gazprom said. recent rally was overdone, Macquarie Group Ltd. York. Tellez said he sees the proportion ofCommercial talks will start next month on the said. The Philippine Stock Exchange trading handled by those firms rising to aboutdeal, Gazprom head Alexey Miller told Index jumped 15 percent in September; the 50 percent in the next two years.reporters on the sidelines of a visit by biggest advance in more than eight years, as thePresident Dmitry Medvedev to Seoul. economy expanded and investors sought higherWhen the initial agreement was signed in 2008, yields amid near- zero benchmark interest ratesan official quoted by Yonhap news agency said in the U.S.the gas imports would be worth about 90 Now, six straight days of losses have dragged thebillion dollars over three decades. gauge down 4.7 percent this month, trailing
  9. 9. Outlook on Gold OutlookThe price of gold powered to an all-time high of US economy, which would result in growth,$1,419 per ounce as continued global thereby, reducing gold’s appeal for hedging, Call Rates as on 12th November 2010 → 5.90% -uncertainty coupled with abundant liquidity and subsequent profit booking will bring a 6.74% Aluminum (1 kgs) 108.65(with the promise of more!), a sign the yellow much needed correction. Commodities In the long run, however, outlook remains Copper (1 Kg) 392.40metal is gaining acceptance as a form ofinvestment. In tandem, the price of gold in the bullish. One leg of this bull market ended at Zinc (1 kg) 108.65domestic market hovered at close to Rs. 20,000 $1030 in March 2008 when other assets saw Steel (L) (1000kg) 25800per 10 gm. a melt-down after the sub-prime crisis. AfterAs governments cut interest rates and boost that gold market corrected by 45% and As on 12th November 2010spending to fight the worst recession since followed an up-move from 2001 low and ended at October 2008. ForexWorld War II, investors worldwide have rushed Currently, we are in the third leg of the long Forward Rates against INR as on November 12,to buy bullion as a hedge against inflation and 2010currency debasement. Gold holdings in run bull market. According to the prevalent Spot Rate 1 mth 3 mth 6 mth US 44.72 45.04 45.54 46.18exchange traded funds are at record levels. projected targets, we get the first target at Euro 61.32 61.76 62.42 63.26Gold is one commodity for which Indians have $1,867 and the second target at $2,587. Sterling 71.78 72.28 73.06 74.05 Yen 54.41 54.82 55.44 56.26an insatiable appetite. It has tremendous These are still conservative targets. A blow- Swiss 45.87 46.22 46.74 47.43demand in the peak of festive season. The high out rally in gold has a much higher target Franc Source: Hindu BusinessLineglobal price has done nothing to curb domestic above $3,000. This is on the back of massivedemand. weakening in the dollar due to previous dose Libor Rates as on November 12, 2010In 2009, total Indian gold demand reached $19 of quantitative easing. That is extremely Libor % 1 mth 3 mth 6 mth 12 mthbillion, or Rs. 974 billion, which accounts for 15 bullish for gold. Gold’s prices are expected US 0.25 0.29 0.44 0.76 Euro 0.81 0.99 1.23 1.51per cent of the global gold market. After scaling to rise until the US Fed’s policy is Sterling 0.57 0.74 1.03 1.49the $1,000 mark in September 2009, gold is normalized. Yen 0.12 0.20 0.40 0.63 Swiss Franc 0.13 0.17 0.24 0.52now up 40% in little over a year. That is almost The 2008 peak of $1,030 will be the key Forward Cover % as on November 12, 2010double the approximately 20% return from the long-term support for gold. The positive 1 mth 3 mth 6 mth US 8.71 7.44 6.62stock market in the year. outlook for this metal and its ability to reach Euro 8.33 7.14 6.35Gold has risen a lot and, hence, those who want higher levels will be negated only if it closes Sterling 8.30 7.17 6.38to invest can wait for a correction, in the short strongly below the support band between Yen 8.94 7.60 6.86term. Logic behind that are positive effects of $1,000 and $1,030. Swiss Franc 9.02 7.60 6.85 Source: Homefinance.nlsecond dose of quantitative easing (QE2) on the
  10. 10. Financial Q In Focus1. The first general purpose credit card was issued Brazilian Iron Lady: Dilma Rousseff by _________.2. "We are number 2. Why go with us? Because we try harder". Which brand was this No.2?3. Areez Khambatta in Ahmedabad is credited with being the man behind which famous Indian brand?4. Which is the first Indian company to be listed on the NASDAQ?5. Following the huge success of Hotmail and its History was made in Brazil on 1st November 2010, when it elected its first eventual sellout to Microsoft, what is the name female president. Dilma Rousseff, an economist & a former Marxist rebel who of the new venture planned by Sabeer Bhatia? was jailed and tortured during Brazils military dictatorship, won 56% of the6. Which company is behind the creation of votes to head a country which is expected to become world’s fifth largest Computer Mouse? economy by 2016. A tough & resolute bureaucrat, she’s widely recognized as7. Which management term is derived from the Iron Lady in Brazil due to her fierce determination. Her campaign has been Greek word which means "Art of the General"? labeled as an ode to outgoing president, Mr. da Silva’s illustrious tenure which8. The head of this business family is conferred saw economic prosperity in the country. However, her acumen, & resolve the honorary title of The Earl of Iveagh. Which? resulted in a former state secretary of energy of Rio Grande do Sul being9. M.M.Hashams family business of rice exports handpicked by Mr.da Silva, himself, as his successor. Her arrival could not was lost when the Government nationalized it have been timed better with economy & the country, as a whole, in a good in 1941. Undeterred he plunged into the oil shape. She has cleared first hurdle: how she takes from here, mainly in business and founded Western India Vegetable education & poverty, remains an open question. Products. At the time of his death his company was doing reasonably well with their two Answer of Quiz: 5 established brands called Sunflower and Camel. (1)Bernard H. Bass (2) Network 18 (3) Samsung (4) Microsoft (5) HDFC bank (6) BMP His son took over and they have now entered a Paribas (7) Lenovo (8) October 19 (9) Porsche (10) E.F. Schumacher new field under what name?

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