Sweetener Colloquium.Grains & Oilseeds

  • 257 views
Uploaded on

 

More in: Education
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
    Be the first to like this
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
257
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0

Actions

Shares
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0

Embeds 0

No embeds

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Grain & Oilseed Situation and Outlook Prepared by Stephen S. Nicholson February 12, 2013 1
  • 2. U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth U.S. GDP in the next year is not expected to exceed 1.5-2.5% annual growth. Percent Change based on annual rates18.016.014.012.010.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0-10.0-12.0Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economics Analysis 2
  • 3. World Gross Domestic Product Percent Change from year ago16.015.014.013.012.011.010.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0-3.0-4.0-5.0 World Advanced Economies Emerging Economies China Source: IMF, World Economic Database, October 2012 3
  • 4. Weekly Crude Oil Futures 4
  • 5. U.S. Dollar Index (top) vs. GS Commodity Index (bottom) 5
  • 6. Dow Jones—Monthly 6
  • 7. U.S. Drought Monitor—February 7, 2012 7
  • 8. U.S. Drought Monitor—February 5, 2013We are not out of the woods yet--drought is still a threat to U.S. Corn Belt, particularly the Western Corn Belt 8
  • 9. Major U.S. Row Crop Planted Acres Record planted acres of these crop in 2012: 242.4 mln acres Million Acres250225200175150125100 75 50 25 0 Corn Soybeans All Wheat Cotton Source: USDA, Economic Research Service 9
  • 10. Major U.S. Row Crop Planted Acres Million Acres100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 *Projection Corn Soybeans All Wheat Source: USDA, Economic Research Service 10
  • 11. Corn Supply/Demand Situation and Outlook• EPA recently issued 2013 Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS) – No change to corn-based ethanol at 13.8 bln gallons—increase came in advanced biofuels to 2.75 bln from 1.35 bln – The industry is struggling--operating at 85% plant capacity – 10% blending wall may make it difficult to reach the mandate, but economics will result in producers maximizing blending up to the wall.• U.S. corn exports have been disappointing. – U.S. continues to lose share to others—Argentina, Brazil & Ukraine – In 2005/06, U.S. share of world corn export market was nearly 70%, now just under 30%.• South American weather and corn production prospects – Argentine corn production was decreased1.0 MMT to 27.0 MMT – Which was offset by an increase in Brazilian production of 1.5 MMT to 72.5 MMT.• Market’s attention will now turn to Prospective Plantings report. – Spring weather? – Trade looking for increase in corn acres – USDA reports HRW acres down 735,000 acres in 2013. – 2.6 mln acres of CRP land coming back into production, some potential corn acres.• Price prospects – It is all about weather, but market will more reluctant to drive prices lower on good spring weather after last year’s experience. – Currently market is under pressure, but expect market to remain range bound. 11
  • 12. U.S. Corn Balance Sheet (million bushels) 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13* 2013/14*Planted Acres (mln) 93.5 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 98.4Harvested Acres (mln 85.5 78.6 79.5 81.4 84.0 87.4 89.8Yield (bu./acre) 150.7 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 149.0Supply Beginning Stocks (9/1) 1,304 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 632 Production 13,038 12,092 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 13,384Total Supply 14,362 13,729 14,774 14,182 13,516 11,869 14,036Disappearance Feed 5,858 5,182 5,140 4,795 4,548 4,450 4,750 Food, Seed & Industrial 4,420 5,025 5,939 6,426 6,437 5,887 6,000 Ethanol for Fuel 3,049 3,709 4,568 5,019 5,011 4,500 5,000 Exports 2,437 1,849 1,987 1,834 1,543 900 1,750Total Disappearance 12,737 12,056 13,066 13,055 12,527 11,237 12,500Ending Stocks 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 632 1,536Stocks-to-Use Ratio (%) 12.8% 13.8% 13.1% 8.6% 7.9% 5.6% 12.3%Average Farm Price ($/bu.) $4.20 $4.06 $3.55 $5.18 $6.22 $7.20 $5.75 12 * Projections
  • 13. Weekly Corn Futures ($/bu) 13
  • 14. Funds’ Net Position and Nearby Corn Futures Price # of Contracts $/bushel 550,000 $8.50 500,000 $8.00 450,000 $7.50 400,000 $7.00 350,000 $6.50 300,000 $6.00 250,000 $5.50 200,000 $5.00 150,000 $4.50 100,000 $4.00 50,000 $3.50 0 $3.00 # of Contracts Nearby Futures Price Source: CFTC 14
  • 15. Estimated Net Corn Costs Net corn costs have risen sharply, primarily due to sharp rise in cash corn prices. $ per Bushel$5.25$5.00$4.75$4.50$4.25$4.00$3.75$3.50$3.25$3.00$2.75$2.50$2.25$2.00$1.75$1.50$1.25$1.00$0.75$0.50$0.25$0.00Net Corn Costs = Cash Corn Price - CoProduct Revenue (Corn Oil, Corn Gluten Feed, Corn Gluten Meal) 15
  • 16. U.S. Corn YieldTrend line yield is 156.0 bushels per acre, while 10-year average yield is 149.2 bu. per acre. Bushels per Acre170165160155150145140135130125120115110105100 95 16
  • 17. U.S. Fuel Ethanol Production 1,000 Barrels30,00027,50025,00022,50020,00017,50015,00012,50010,000 7,500 5,000 2,500 0 Source: Energy Information Agency 17
  • 18. Selected Products of U.S. Corn FSI Demand ComponentCorn use for ethanol has dropped back, reflecting shuttering of plants due to poor economics. Million Bushels 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 HFCS Glucose & Dextrose Starch Ethanol Source: USDA, Economic Research Service 18
  • 19. Reformulated Gasoline/Ethanol Futures SpreadEthanol’s discount to RBOB is widening—won’t discourage use of the ethanol 19
  • 20. U.S. Corn Exports Smallest export program since 1971/72 crop year. Mln bushels2,5002,2502,0001,7501,5001,2501,000 750 500 250 0* Projection 20
  • 21. U.S. Monthly Corn Exports6,000,000 Metric Tons5,500,0005,000,0004,500,0004,000,0003,500,0003,000,0002,500,0002,000,0001,500,0001,000,000 500,000 0 ROW China Source: USDA/FAS & U.S. Census 21
  • 22. U.S. Corn Ending Stocks vs. Average Farm Price Mln bushels $ per bushel2,250 $7.502,000 $6.501,7501,500 $5.501,250 $4.501,000 750 $3.50 500 $2.50 250 0 $1.50 Ending Stocks Average Farm Price* Projection 22
  • 23. U.S. and World Soybean Supply/Demand Situation and Outlook• It is all about South America! – In Brazil, conditions are very favorable for crop development. – However, it is too wet in northern Brazil and too dry in areas of southern Brazil. – The most concern is in Argentina, where it has been dry going on five weeks. – USDA forecast Argentina and Brazilian production at 53.0 MMT (-1.0 MMT) and 83.5 MMT (+1.0 MMT), respectively. – Logistical bottlenecks in South America are likely to delay movement of record crop into world trade channels.• World soybean stocks are down from peak of 2010/11, but…• China continues to buy U.S. soybeans, old-crop and new-crop!• U.S. soybean stocks are going to reach bare minimum pipeline levels. – U.S. usage pace is going to make it a difficult job to ration soybeans in LH of crop year. – There will need to be a significant drop in LH crop year usage—where does it come from? – In addition, every day delay in harvest South American harvest pushes export business back to the U.S.• Like corn market, soybean market’s attention will turn Prospective Plantings – Trade looking for 1.5-2.0 mln acre increase. – Primary driver for increased acres is weather and crop rotation.• Like corn, soybean futures prices are range bound for now. – Watch for price spike to ration demand. 23
  • 24. World Soybean Ending Stocks Stocks levels are good, but down from high of 2010/11 crop year. Million Metric Tons Percent 80 24% 70 22% 60 20% 50 18% 40 16% 30 14% 20 12% 10 10% 0 8% Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio (Y2)* Projection 24
  • 25. Annual Change in World Soybean Domestic Disappearance World has adjusted to higher prices and year-over-year demand remains positive—2012 prices higher than in 2008! 1,000 Metric Tons17,00015,00013,00011,000 9,000 7,000 5,000 3,000 1,000 -1,000 -3,000 -5,000 -7,000 -9,000-11,000 * Projection 25 25
  • 26. World Soybean ImportsIn 2000/01 China accounted for 25% of the world’s soybean imports, today over 65%. 1,000 Metric Tons110,000100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 China ROW * Projection 26
  • 27. Chinese Soybean SituationChina’s imports are soaring, due to growing consumption and positive crush margins 1,000 Metric Tons 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Production Imports Total Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks * Projection 27
  • 28. U.S. Soybean Balance Sheet (million bushels) 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13* 2013/14*Planted Acres (mln) 64.7 75.7 77.5 77.4 75.1 77.2 78.7Harvested Acres (mln 64.2 74.7 76.4 76.6 73.8 76.1 77.8Yield (bu./acre) 41.7 39.7 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.6 43.0Supply Beginning Stocks (9/1) 574 205 138 151 215 169 125 Production 2,677 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,015 3,344 Imports 10 13 15 14 16 20 15Total Supply 3,261 3,185 3,512 3,494 3,325 3,204 3,483Disappearance Crush 1,803 1,662 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,615 1,650 Exports 1,159 1,279 1,499 1,501 1,362 1,345 1,500 Seed, Feed & Residual 94 106 110 130 91 119 90Total Disappearance 3,056 3,047 3,361 3,279 3,155 3,080 3,240Ending Stocks 205 138 151 215 169 125 243Stocks-to-Use Ratio (%) 6.7% 4.5% 4.5% 46.6% 5.3% 4.1% 7.5%Average Farm Price ($/bu.) $10.10 $9.97 $9.59 $11.30 $12.50 $14.30 $12.65 28 * Projections
  • 29. Weekly Soybean Futures ($/bu) 29
  • 30. Funds’ Net Position and Nearby Soybean Futures Price # of Contracts $/bushel 320,000 $18.00 300,000 $17.50 280,000 $17.00 260,000 $16.50 240,000 $16.00 220,000 $15.50 200,000 $15.00 180,000 $14.50 160,000 $14.00 140,000 $13.50 120,000 $13.00 100,000 $12.50 80,000 $12.00 60,000 $11.50 40,000 $11.00 20,000 $10.50 0 $10.00 # of Contracts Nearby Futures Price Source: CFTC 30
  • 31. U.S. Soybean YieldIn short crop years, the yield always seems to return to 1.0 standard deviation below trend. Bushels per Acre 45 40 35 30 25 20 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
  • 32. U.S. Soybean Crush Billion bushels 1.85 1.75 1.65 1.55 1.45 1.35 1.25 1.15 1.05 0.95 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012* * Projection Crop Year beginning with Sept. 1 32
  • 33. NOPA Soybean CrushNote, that crush has exceeded previous year in the past 10 months…how to cut off demand? Million bushels175150125100 75 50 25 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 33
  • 34. Board Crush Margin ($/bu) 34
  • 35. U.S. Weekly Soybean Export InspectionsExport are running 30.1% ahead of the last year pace—weekly inspections of 10.5 mln bu. needed to meet USDA forecast. 1,000 Bushels 95,000 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Week # 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 35
  • 36. Monthly U.S. Soybean ExportsIn December, China accounted for 63% of total exports. 1,000 Metric Tons 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 China ROW 36
  • 37. U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks vs. Price Million Bushels $/bushel 600 $16.00 500 $14.00 400 $12.00 300 $10.00 200 $8.00 100 $6.00 0 $4.00 Ending Stocks (Y1) Price (Y2)* Projection 37
  • 38. U.S. and World Vegetable Oil Supply/Demand Situation and Outlook• Malaysian palm oil prices are extremely attractive – Palm oil holds a steep discount to soybean oil. – Malaysian palm oil stocks are at all-time record levels. – Import and export taxes continue to distort trade flows• World vegetable oil stocks are more than adequate.• Keep eye on canola oil prices – Canadian canola seed stocks are down significantly from last year. – Canola oil prices didn’t see the harvest or post-harvest drop—they have remained firm.• U.S. soybean oil stocks continue to decline year-over-year. – The market is showing little concern. – However, basis levels are likely to firm through the 2012/13 crop year.• Soybean oil futures rally has been driven by… – The dryness in Argentina – Rally in palm oil prices – Renewed enthusiasm for biodiesel, but initial euphoria is waning. – Like other commodities, soybean oil futures are range bound. – What about crude oil prices and investment money flow? 38
  • 39. World Vegetable Oil Stocks Million Metric Tons Percent 18.0 11.0% 16.0 10.0% 14.0 9.0% 12.0 10.0 8.0% 8.0 7.0% 6.0 6.0% 4.0 5.0% 2.0 0.0 4.0% Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio* Projection 39
  • 40. Annual Change in World Vegetable Oil Domestic Disappearance Despite price spikes, domestic vegetable oil demand had never gone down 1,000 Metric Tons 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0* Projection 40
  • 41. Monthly Malaysian Palm Oil StocksStocks at all-time record high as well as global stocks. 1,000 metric tons 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Malaysian Palm Oil Board 41
  • 42. China and India Vegetable Oil Imports. Million Metric Tons 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 China India Source: USDA, Economic Research Service 42
  • 43. U.S. Soybean Oil Balance Sheet (million pounds) 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13* 2013/14*Supply Beginning Stocks (10/1) 3,085 2,485 2,861 3,406 2,425 2,540 1,615 Production 20,580 18,745 19,615 18,888 19,740 18,975 19,140Total Supply 23,730 21,320 22,579 22,453 22,314 21,865 20,955Disappearance Domestic Use 18,335 16,265 15,814 16,795 18,310 17,900 18,000 Biodiesel 3,245 2,013 1,680 2,737 4,870 4,900 5,000 Exports 2,911 2,193 3,359 3,233 1,464 2,300 1,750Total Disappearance 21,246 18,458 19,173 20,028 19,774 20,200 19,750Ending Stocks 2,485 2,861 3,406 2,425 2,540 1,665 1,205Stocks-to-Use Ratio (%) 11.7% 15.5% 17.8% 12.1% 12.9% 8.2% 6.1% 43.00- 48.00-Price-Decatur (cents/lb.) 52.03 32.16 35.95 53.20 51.90 53.00 58.00Crush (mln bushels) 1,777 1,648 1,769 1,625 1,703 1,615 1,650Yield (lbs. per bu.) 11.58 11.37 11.09 11.62 11.59 11.75 11.60 43
  • 44. Weekly Soybean Oil Futures ($/bu) 44
  • 45. Funds’ Net Position and Nearby Soybean Oil Futures Price # of Contracts $ per pound 90,000 $0.60 80,000 $0.59 70,000 $0.58 60,000 $0.57 50,000 $0.56 40,000 $0.55 30,000 $0.54 20,000 $0.53 10,000 $0.52 0 $0.51-10,000 $0.50-20,000 $0.49-30,000 $0.48-40,000 $0.47-50,000 $0.46-60,000 $0.45 # of Contracts Nearby Futures Price Source: CFTC 45
  • 46. U.S. Soybean Oil Domestic Disappearance Million pounds 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Food Use/Misc. Biodiesel * Projection 46
  • 47. U.S. Palm Oil Imports Million pounds1,3001,2001,1001,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 * Projection 47
  • 48. Monthly B-100 Production Million Gallons120100 80 60 40 20 0 2010 2011 2012 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 48
  • 49. Monthly U.S. Soybean Oil Consumption for Methyl Ester ProductionCrushers are extremely bullish soybean oil market with reinstatement of blender’s tax credit. Million Pounds 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 49
  • 50. U.S. Soybean Oil Accumulative Export ShipmentsTotal export commitments are running nearly 242.2% ahead of last year’s pace. 1,000 Metric Tons 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Week 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13Source: USDA Export Sales Reports 50
  • 51. U.S. Soybean Oil Ending Stocks vs. Price Million Pounds Cents per pound 4,500 57.00 4,000 52.00 3,500 47.00 3,000 42.00 2,500 37.00 2,000 32.00 1,500 27.00 1,000 22.00 500 17.00 0 12.00 Ending Stocks (Y1) Price (Y2)* Projection 51
  • 52. U.S. and World Wheat Supply/Demand Situation and Outlook• The world wheat production is expected to rebound this year.• The wheat market’s major focus is on weather – HRW crop was in the worse condition going into dormancy in 40 years. – Western parts of the U.S. HRW wheat are extremely dry—concern about winterkill, etc. – Growing conditions for SRW have been good. – Wheat field in Russia have also been stressed over the winter.• U.S. wheat exports continue to be disappointing. – Current pace is below what is needed to reach USDA forecasts.• Price spread between corn and wheat continues to narrow— encouraging increased wheat feeding. – However, supplies are tight in the cash markets which may temper some switching.• Wheat futures prices are expected remain range-bound. – End users have been unwilling to chase prices higher. – Export pace or lack thereof, condition of crop as it breaks dormancy and spring wheat planting will determine price direction. 52
  • 53. World Wheat Balance Sheet (million metric tons) 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13*Harvested Acres ( mln ha) 211.7 217.1 224.3 225.3 217.1 221.8 215.9Yield (mt/ha) 2.82 2.82 3.05 3.05 3.00 3.14 3.03Supply Beginning Stocks 153.4 133.8 128.2 168.1 201.0 197.9 196.5 Production 596.3 612.3 683.4 686.7 652.0 696.6 653.6 Imports 114.1 113.5 137.9 133.8 131.6 148.5 139.3Total Supply 863.8 859.6 949.6 988.7 984.7 1,043.0 989.4Disappearance Feed & Residual 110.2 102.3 121.3 120.4 116.1 147.0 133.1 Food, Seed & Industrial 508.0 512.0 515.6 530.2 537.9 542.2 548.0 Exports 111.8 117.2 144.5 137.0 132.8 157.3 131.7Total Disappearance 618.1 614.2 636.9 650.7 654.0 689.2 681.0Ending Stocks 133.8 128.2 168.1 201.0 197.9 196.5 176.7Stocks-to-Use Ratio (%) 21.6% 20.9% 26.4% 30.9% 30.3% 28.5% 26.0% * Projections 53
  • 54. World Wheat StocksWheat stocks are declining, but we are not in a shortage situation. Million Metric Tons Percent 250 38.0% 225 36.0% 200 34.0% 175 32.0% 150 30.0% 125 28.0% 100 26.0% 75 24.0% 50 22.0% 25 20.0% 0 18.0% Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio* Projection 54 54
  • 55. U.S. All-Wheat Balance Sheet (million bushels) 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12* 2012/13* Planted Acres (mln) 57.3 60.5 63.2 59.2 53.6 54.4 55.7 Harvested Acres (mln 46.8 51.0 55.7 49.9 47.6 45.7 49.0 Yield (bu./acre) 38.6 40.2 44.9 44.5 46.3 43.7 46.3 Supply Beginning Stocks (6/1) 571 456 306 657 976 862 743 Production 1,808 2,051 2,499 2,218 2,207 1,999 2,269 Imports 122 113 127 119 97 112 130 Total Supply 2,501 2,620 2,932 2,993 3,279 2,974 3,142 Disappearance Food 938 948 927 919 926 941 950 Exports 908 1,263 1,015 879 1,289 1,050 1,050 Seed, Feed & Residual 199 104 333 219 203 240 450 Total Disappearance 2,045 2,314 2,275 2,018 2,417 2,231 2,450 Ending Stocks 456 306 657 976 862 743 691 Stocks-to-Use Ratio (%) 22.2% 13.2% 28.9% 48.4% 35.7% 33.3% 28.2% Average Farm Price ($/bu.) $4.26 $6.48 $6.78 $4.87 $5.70 $7.24 $7.90 55
  • 56. U.S. Winter Wheat Crop Condition Ratings U.S. winter wheat crop went into dormancy at 33% rated good-to-excellent & 26% rated very poor-to-poor.. % Good-to-Excellent 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 56
  • 57. Weekly Kansas City Wheat Futures ($/bu)(Hard Red Winter) 57
  • 58. Chicago Wheat-Corn Price Spread ($/bu) 58
  • 59. U.S. Wheat Planted and Harvested Acres2013 winter wheat seeding are up 1.2%, to 41.82 mln acres from 41.32 mln in 2012. Million Acres 77 74 71 68 65 62 59 56 53 50 47 44 Planted Acres Harvested Acres* Projection 59
  • 60. U.S. Wheat Accumulative Export Shipments Shipments are running nearly 8.3% behind last year’s pace. 1,000 Metric Tons 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13Source: USDA Export Sales Reports 60
  • 61. U.S. Wheat Stocks Million Bushels $ per Bushel1200 $8.001100 $7.501000 $7.00 900 $6.50 800 $6.00 700 $5.50 600 $5.00 500 $4.50 400 $4.00 300 $3.50 200 $3.00 100 $2.50 0 $2.00 Ending Stocks Average Farm Price* Projection 61
  • 62. Some Closing Thoughts…• While down from highs, world commodity stock levels for most commodities are still at or near record levels.• However, commodity prices remain historically high?• Global demand continues to increase.• Global wealth continues to grow.• Futures markets are still important to price, but don’t forget that cash markets are doing more of the work of price discovery. 62
  • 63. Contact Information: Stephen S. Nicholson Commodity Procurement/Economist International Food Products St. Louis, Missouri U.S.A. 636-717-2100, x-1292 snicholson@ifpc.com 63