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Dish Stirling - CSP - Technology in Transition
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Dish Stirling - CSP - Technology in Transition



- Technology overviews ...

- Technology overviews
- Workable business model for Stirling CSP
- What can we expect by 2016
- Battle –Strategy and Sustainable challenges for Dish and other CSP
- Drivers- Barriers and Performance

Cynthia Christensen, President, CORNWELL GROUP



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    Dish Stirling - CSP - Technology in Transition Dish Stirling - CSP - Technology in Transition Presentation Transcript

    • Concentrating Solar Thermal Power February 23‐25, 2001 Scottsdale, Arizona February 24, 2011
    • .  CSP‐Dish Technology in  Transition Cynthia Christensen President Cornwell Group
    • Agenda . 1. Who is Cornwell Group, What is our focus?2. What is Dish Stirling Technology3. What is Dish Technology’s position in the CSP  Market4. Changes in the Dish CSP business landscape ‐ External/Internal factors5. What are the drivers of this transformation6. How does Dish CSP match its competitors7. What does tomorrow’s landscape look like
    • Cornwell GroupCornwell Group is a strategic management firm specializing inworking with clients to identify highest value opportunities, identifycritical challenges and transform their business prospects.Cornwell Group brings together seasoned international industryexpertise in management consultancy, corporate finance,manufacturing/ supply chain intelligence, technology review, newmarket development and effective business strategy.Cornwell Group –Strategic Planning that guides the effort tocompleteness-the outcome can be powerful and position theorganization to dominate the competitionCornwell Group Acquisition Team-provides quickly deployable andprofessionally trained business development agents to researchand sell solutions, using this information to profile and acquirecustomers
    • Cornwell GroupDedicated to the Renewable Energy MarketOur Expertise is in Technology  Manufacturing Strategic Positioning Financing Market Development Cost‐Down‐Supply Strategies
    • Solar Technology Landscape CSP Conference
    • Who is in the Dish Market . Company Dish Size Cycle StageStirling Energy  25kW Stirling 1.5MW PlantSystems 1.5GW projects sold to PV  developersInfinia 3kW Stirling Commercial 30kW 80MW PipelineCleanEnergy 50kW Brayton Pre‐CommercialRipasso 30kW Stirling Pre‐CommercialSolarCat 100kW Brayton Protype on Line
    • What is Dish CSP Technology? Concentrating Dish Solar Power uses mirrors to concentrate solar thermal energy and convert it into heat.  A working fluid or gas then drives  a turbine  or engine to generate electrical power Intertech Pira
    • A Dish CSP Unit has Four Major Subsystems… Mirrors & Structure Electrical, Dish Controls & Drives System PCU
    • A Stirling Engine‐Main Components Cross section of stirling engine / receiver
    • Dish Technology –Peak Demand R & D work is being developed for storage component
    • Dish Technology Benefits Lower Cost Solar Has the potential to be one of the lower cost CSP TechnologiesHigh Efficiency Highest conversion efficiency of solar into grid quality  electricity Allows maximum development in low water areas. Lowest Water Use Easier to permit as well as low ongoing water costMinimal Footprint & Low  Minimal Grading. Limited Roads.  Low Emissions. Emissions Minimized impact to environmental/cultural  resources Up to 10% slope tolerance allows development on Terrain Tolerance lands others can not use EPC comprises roads, building & local transmission ‐Straightforward Construction highly analogous to wind construction High Quality Power &  Power generated at peak times and generated over  Robust Power Curve wide solar insolation range at high winds  Highly scalable due to modularity. 9 MW  Modularity & Scalability commissioning reduces project completion risk
    • Water use of dish and other technologies
    • SolarCat‐Southwest SolarSolar Cat Dish Recently Went online in ArizonaDeveloping a compressed air storage component
    • InfiniaThe PowerDishs free-piston Stirling engine is a proprietary technologydeveloped and manufactured by Infinia Corporation.The engine is a hermetically sealed system that does not require lubrication, hasno touching parts and no wear and tear. Each PowerDish has a service life that exceeds 25 years. Once the engine issealed – engine designed to run for 25 years without any maintenance. Becauseof its design characteristics, Infinias engine is proving to have lower O&M coststhan kinematic Stirling engines.Currently used by NASA, the Department of Energy and other commercialorganizations, Infinias Striling engine technology has nearly 1,000,000 operatinghours, the highest of all Stirling engine manufacturers.
    • Transitional Forces for Dish CSPExternal Permitting IssuesLegal Injunctions Legal ConstraintsPermitting Hurdles Development FinancingDOE Loan Timeline TransmissionCompetitive Cost  Early Stage Technology Risk AversionReduction Competitor Cost ReductionInternal Product DevelopmentTechnology Maqturity Early stage commercialization on grand scaleCorp Structure Legacy constraintsMfg Constraints Supply Chain/Manufacturing early stageInvestment FatiqueMarket Demands Market RequirementsMaturity Range  Flexibility in development sizePricing Component New Product reliabiltiy –time in fieldProject size reduction O & M projection for 20+ years in fieldO & M stability Cost Down –line of sight
    • Dish Transitioning to: • Smaller Projects  ‐ 1 to 20MW .  • Distributed Generation – local to load centers Market  Segment • Combined Heat and Power Applications • Scale  smaller & larger dishes  (Infinia, Australian ‘Big Dish’) • Free Piston Stirling vs Kinematic Stirling Product  Range • PCU technology ‐ Micro‐Turbine or CPV receiver? • Utility/Industrial Customer Sales vs Vertically Integrated Developer/ Mfr • In house design & manufacturing vs outsourced automotive model Business  Model • Slower ramp – organic growth • CA no longer dominant market • Opportunities in  AZ / NM / NV / TX / FLGeography • Middle East / North Africa , India, Australia, Latin America
    • Cost Reduction Road MapToday Tomorrow Key Drivers Technology Innovators Material Development (TF) Storage Innovation (Trough) Reflective Material Dish Redesign-(CPV Use) Vacuum Tube- (Trough) Manufacturing Improvements Press Process –(TF) Automation Cell-(PV) Glass Coatings (ALL) Margin Contraction Oversupply-PV modules Competitive Buy-TF Increase raw material dev-(PV) Balance of Plant Invertors Market Penetration Facet Redesign for production Manufacturing Maturity Automation (PV) Competition Mfg Supply (PV)
    • Opportunities & Drivers $0.300  LCOE vs. Site DNI for different Installed cost $0.280  Cities between 27.5 ‐ 31 degree latitude Cities below 27.5 degree latitude $0.260  2010 ($3.25/W) $0.240  2011 ($2.90/W) 2012 ($2.45/W) 2013 ($2.11/W) $0.220 LCOE ‐ $/kWh $0.200  $0.180  $0.160  $0.140  $0.120  $0.100  4.8 5.3 5.8 6.3 6.8 7.3 7.8 8.3 DNI ‐ kWsh/M^2/dayOptimum opportunities at intersection of DNI and Political/Economic incentives
    • Conclusions . 1. The solar market changes rapidly 2. Strategic planning is important to navigate  internal and external  threats3. Awareness of political and economic forces   and technological developments is vital4. Market / regulator demand for dispatchability will influence R&D for all CSP technologies.5. New opportunities for solar Dish technology ‐ combined heat and power, CPV, DG6. Tomorrow’s landscape will look very different! 
    • .  Thank you  Cynthia Christensen Cynthiac@Cornwellgroup.com February 24 2011