Maintaining CdTe cost advantages over competing technologies

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- CdTe cost roadmap and efficiency improvements over time
- Performance benefits of CdTe thin film vs. crystalline silicon
- Ability to affect system costs and BOS perspective
Mark Chen, Director of Marketing
Abound Solar

Published in: Technology, Business
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Maintaining CdTe cost advantages over competing technologies

  1. 1. Maintaining CdTe manufacturing cost advantageScottsdaleJanuary 21, 2011
  2. 2. Abound Solar overviewProduct CdTe photovoltaic modulesMarket focus Utility and commercial scale projectsHistory Nearly 20 years of development at Colorado State University; spun out in 2007Production Ramping first factory to 200MW, 840MW total capacity by 2014Location 100% USA Manufacturing Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 1
  3. 3. Abound – Key Metrics • Headquarters: Loveland, Colorado Locations • Plant 1: Longmont, Colorado • Plant 2: Tipton, Indiana (to be constructed) Nameplate • 2010: 65 MW Manufacturing • 2012: 200 MW Capacity • 2014: >800 MW Median Efficiency • November 2010: ~10% • First factory: < $0.90 per watt Production Cost • GW-scale: < $0.60 per watt Capex Cost • < $1.00 per watt of capacity Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 2
  4. 4. Step 1: Choose the right technologyCdTe can offer sustainable cost advantageSource: Lux Research Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 3
  5. 5. Step 2: Drive production volumesFirst Solar scale curve shows 15% cost reduction with every doubling of volume 3.00 2004 2.50 Production cost ($ / W) 2.00 2005 1.50 2006 2007 2008 1.00 2009 2010 20111 0.50 0.00 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Annual production run-rate (MW)1) ProjectedSources: First Solar, Barclays Capital Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 4
  6. 6. Industry supply curve shows increasing cost of marginalefficiency gains 2.00 SunPower Suntech Production cost ($ / W) 1.50 Trina 1.00 Trony First Solar 0.50 0.00 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Module conversion efficiencySources: UBS, Barclays Capital, BCG, company financials Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 5
  7. 7. Efficiency-adjusted pricing shows demand for efficiency SunPower 2.00 Suntech First Solar Trina 1.50 ASP ($ / W) 1.00 a-Si1 (single junction) 0.50 0.00 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Module conversion efficiency1) a-Si pricing estimated due to lack of comparableSources: Greentech Media, juwi Solar, company financials Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 6
  8. 8. Profitability driven by gap between production cost andmarketing willingness-to-pay 2.00 FIT reductions Market pressure 1.50 $/W 1.00 Demand Technological innovations Production scale Supply Vertical integration 0.50 0.00 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Module conversion efficiency Margin provides greatest room for error as prices and costs drop Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 7
  9. 9. Abound Solar driving to lowest manufacturing costs1) Select fundamentally robust and proven semiconductor2) Simplify production process3) Drive yields and efficiencies4) Increase production scale Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 8
  10. 10. Next generation CdTe – Doing it better, faster and simpler Abound Production Process Using Closed Space Sublimation (“CSS”) • Proprietary semiconductor deposition process (single tool) • Patented Operational Capex Advantages Product Advantages Advantages• Higher yields • Less costly/complex • Stronger modules equipment• Better materials utilization • More reliable modules • Common hardware• Greater uniformity • Lower voltage (lower BOS • Fewer downstream costs for customers)• Higher throughput process steps • All black (aesthetics)• Fewer process steps • Significantly smaller• Easier to optimize production footprint semiconductor process Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 9
  11. 11. Rapid scale-up versus First Solar validates themanufacturability of Abound’s process Modules Produced1,2 Line Yield1,2 Produced 67,000 modules in September 85% yield after 1st year of production Module Power1,3,4 Achieved >68 Wp average module power five years faster Ramping module efficiency ~5.5x faster than First SolarNotes:1 Abound Solar data beginning 9/092 First Solar data beginning 6/01 from NREL report3 First Solar 2009 Analyst Day Presentation and Abound estimates Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 10
  12. 12. Leverage DOE loan guarantee to scale productionOn December 9, Abound closed on $400M loan guarantee from US Department ofEnergyTwo US Manufacturing sites • Longmont, Colorado (200 MW) • Tipton, Indiana (640 MW) Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 11
  13. 13. November 2009: 50kW in Oregon Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 12
  14. 14. March 2010: 190kW in California Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 13
  15. 15. June 2010: 800kW in Germany Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 14
  16. 16. July 2010: 2,400kW in Germany Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 15
  17. 17. November 2010: 5,600kW in Germany Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 16
  18. 18. SummaryMarket pricing provides diminishing returns to higher efficienciesHigher marginal cost to efficiency improvements as overall efficiency increasesLargest margin exists for low-cost 10-13% CdTe modulesAbound pursuing multi-pronged strategy to aggressively reduce costs whileoptimizing efficiency Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 17

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