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Maintaining CdTe cost advantages over competing technologies
 

Maintaining CdTe cost advantages over competing technologies

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- CdTe cost roadmap and efficiency improvements over time...

- CdTe cost roadmap and efficiency improvements over time
- Performance benefits of CdTe thin film vs. crystalline silicon
- Ability to affect system costs and BOS perspective
Mark Chen, Director of Marketing
Abound Solar

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    Maintaining CdTe cost advantages over competing technologies Maintaining CdTe cost advantages over competing technologies Presentation Transcript

    • Maintaining CdTe manufacturing cost advantageScottsdaleJanuary 21, 2011
    • Abound Solar overviewProduct CdTe photovoltaic modulesMarket focus Utility and commercial scale projectsHistory Nearly 20 years of development at Colorado State University; spun out in 2007Production Ramping first factory to 200MW, 840MW total capacity by 2014Location 100% USA Manufacturing Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 1
    • Abound – Key Metrics • Headquarters: Loveland, Colorado Locations • Plant 1: Longmont, Colorado • Plant 2: Tipton, Indiana (to be constructed) Nameplate • 2010: 65 MW Manufacturing • 2012: 200 MW Capacity • 2014: >800 MW Median Efficiency • November 2010: ~10% • First factory: < $0.90 per watt Production Cost • GW-scale: < $0.60 per watt Capex Cost • < $1.00 per watt of capacity Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 2
    • Step 1: Choose the right technologyCdTe can offer sustainable cost advantageSource: Lux Research Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 3
    • Step 2: Drive production volumesFirst Solar scale curve shows 15% cost reduction with every doubling of volume 3.00 2004 2.50 Production cost ($ / W) 2.00 2005 1.50 2006 2007 2008 1.00 2009 2010 20111 0.50 0.00 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Annual production run-rate (MW)1) ProjectedSources: First Solar, Barclays Capital Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 4
    • Industry supply curve shows increasing cost of marginalefficiency gains 2.00 SunPower Suntech Production cost ($ / W) 1.50 Trina 1.00 Trony First Solar 0.50 0.00 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Module conversion efficiencySources: UBS, Barclays Capital, BCG, company financials Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 5
    • Efficiency-adjusted pricing shows demand for efficiency SunPower 2.00 Suntech First Solar Trina 1.50 ASP ($ / W) 1.00 a-Si1 (single junction) 0.50 0.00 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Module conversion efficiency1) a-Si pricing estimated due to lack of comparableSources: Greentech Media, juwi Solar, company financials Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 6
    • Profitability driven by gap between production cost andmarketing willingness-to-pay 2.00 FIT reductions Market pressure 1.50 $/W 1.00 Demand Technological innovations Production scale Supply Vertical integration 0.50 0.00 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Module conversion efficiency Margin provides greatest room for error as prices and costs drop Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 7
    • Abound Solar driving to lowest manufacturing costs1) Select fundamentally robust and proven semiconductor2) Simplify production process3) Drive yields and efficiencies4) Increase production scale Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 8
    • Next generation CdTe – Doing it better, faster and simpler Abound Production Process Using Closed Space Sublimation (“CSS”) • Proprietary semiconductor deposition process (single tool) • Patented Operational Capex Advantages Product Advantages Advantages• Higher yields • Less costly/complex • Stronger modules equipment• Better materials utilization • More reliable modules • Common hardware• Greater uniformity • Lower voltage (lower BOS • Fewer downstream costs for customers)• Higher throughput process steps • All black (aesthetics)• Fewer process steps • Significantly smaller• Easier to optimize production footprint semiconductor process Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 9
    • Rapid scale-up versus First Solar validates themanufacturability of Abound’s process Modules Produced1,2 Line Yield1,2 Produced 67,000 modules in September 85% yield after 1st year of production Module Power1,3,4 Achieved >68 Wp average module power five years faster Ramping module efficiency ~5.5x faster than First SolarNotes:1 Abound Solar data beginning 9/092 First Solar data beginning 6/01 from NREL report3 First Solar 2009 Analyst Day Presentation and Abound estimates Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 10
    • Leverage DOE loan guarantee to scale productionOn December 9, Abound closed on $400M loan guarantee from US Department ofEnergyTwo US Manufacturing sites • Longmont, Colorado (200 MW) • Tipton, Indiana (640 MW) Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 11
    • November 2009: 50kW in Oregon Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 12
    • March 2010: 190kW in California Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 13
    • June 2010: 800kW in Germany Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 14
    • July 2010: 2,400kW in Germany Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 15
    • November 2010: 5,600kW in Germany Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 16
    • SummaryMarket pricing provides diminishing returns to higher efficienciesHigher marginal cost to efficiency improvements as overall efficiency increasesLargest margin exists for low-cost 10-13% CdTe modulesAbound pursuing multi-pronged strategy to aggressively reduce costs whileoptimizing efficiency Abound Solar, Inc. Confidential 17