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Intergen Dynamics Day '11 - GFC v2.0 presented by Bernard Hickey
 

Intergen Dynamics Day '11 - GFC v2.0 presented by Bernard Hickey

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Dynamics Day '11 - Guest speaker Bernard Hickey speaks about the Global Financial Crisis v2.0

Dynamics Day '11 - Guest speaker Bernard Hickey speaks about the Global Financial Crisis v2.0

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    Intergen Dynamics Day '11 - GFC v2.0 presented by Bernard Hickey Intergen Dynamics Day '11 - GFC v2.0 presented by Bernard Hickey Presentation Transcript

    • GFC v2.0Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • • Market meltdown• Déjà vu all overagain• The new normal• Three scenarios• Lower for longer Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • • Some big pictures• Deleveraging Inc• Great Repression• Hollowed out NZ• Ageing & nesting• Los Indignados• A stateless cloud Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • But first a joke: Why did God create economists. Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • To make weather forecasters look good Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • Market meltdown/up Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • The rate of fear Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • Turning Japanese Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • Deja vu all over again Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • The new normal? Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • Three scenarios: 1. Goldilocks 2. The Big Bad Wolf3. Sleeping beauty (ugly) Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • The Goldilocks scenario: not to hot and not too cold Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • •Extend andpretend works• Just enoughinflation to relievedebt burden• Political stability• Energy stability Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • •Strong Chineseand Indian growthfor 10-20 years• High commodityprices, low inflation• Orderly markets• Low rates Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • A great wall ofdemand for proteinand holidays inour time zone andhemisphere Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • A world of protein Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • Rising up the curve Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • Rising up the curve Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • Rising up the curve Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • Rising up the curve Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • Rising up the curve Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • The Big Bad Wolf and thefour little PIGS Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • •Developed worldchokes on too muchdumb debt• Extend andpretend fails•10-20 years of veryslow growth Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • •China slows downto contain inflation• Lower commodityprices, lower NZ$• Slow to no growth• Markets volatile• Low rates Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • A world of debt Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • A world of debt Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • Structural imbalance Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • China’s savings rate Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • Theinterconnected nature of the Big Bad Debt Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • PIGS in a blanket Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • It’s the household debt Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • It’s the house prices Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • It’s the net foreign debt Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • Not so comfortable Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • It’s the bloody peak oil Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • China’s ghost cities Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • Helicopter Ben Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • Sleeping Beautyor should that be Sleeping Ugly Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • The new normal? Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • How NZ’s income,assets and people are being hollowed out Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • The foreign drain Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • The real problem Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • They just left Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • 40% support 60% Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • ”By 2020 the number of new labour force entrants will be surpassed by the numbers retiring” Natalie Jackson Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • Ageing and nesting Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • Hollowed out NZ Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • Young and angry Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • Los Indignados Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • A stateless cloud Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
    • A family snapshot Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011