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How Technology Intelligence
                                                     Can Forecast Disruptive
                                                      Innovations and Fuel
                                                      Competitive Strategy

                                       A Complimentary Webinar from Aurora WDC
                                      12:00 Noon Eastern /// Wednesday 6 March 2013


                                                         ~ featuring ~




                                         Clay Phillips                   Arik Johnson

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Key Take-Aways


          Intelligence can have an important strategic role and impact when
           an industry is going through fundamental changes


          Need to recognizing the difference between the rear-view mirror
           and the windshield, and that off-road capability may be required


          Different tools, skills, and methods are needed to be effective in a
           disruptive environment


          Communicating and getting traction on actionable intelligence
           with leadership in this environment is tough, but creativity and
           persistence can pay off


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Topics



                             Framework
                             Background
                             Examples




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Strategy requires understanding externalities, the options they
      create, and then making choices about priorities and resources,
      capabilities and capacities needed for a unique competitive
      advantage
                Externalities            Options          Choices
                                                          Resource
                                                          Allocation

                  Mega-
                  Trends              Opportunities
                Customer                                   Unique
                                        (Offense)        Competitive
                 Insights
                                        Threats           Advantage
            Competitors’               (Defense)
             Strategies
                                                        Capabilities and
                                                          Capacities


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Trend Network Structure                                           “What customers want”
                                                                        Application:
     “What is required”                                                 • Advanced Design Projects
     Application:                                                       • Global Portfolio Planning
                                                          Societal
     • Corporate Policy                                   Trends
                                                                        Lead: Market Research
     • Engineering Standards
     Lead: Public Policy

                                                 Lead:                                      “What we offer”
                                                  Market Research                           Applications:
                                      Policy                                Technology
                                      Trends                                  Trends        • Advanced Technical
                                                          Global                              Work
                                                         Trends                             • Technology
                                                                                              Strategy
                                                         Network                            Lead: Engineering


     “What is expected”                                                            “How and where we do
    Application:                                                                   business”
    • Powertrain Portfolio                                           Economic &
                                           Energy and
                                                                      Business     Application:
    • Facilities Plan                      Environment
                                                                       Trends      • Strategy Development
    Lead: Energy Center                                                            • Business Plan
                                                                                   Lead: Economics Staff
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The Global Auto Industry:
    What Happens When…


          100 years of industry standards and norms become
           suspect?


          Key drivers of market demand become unpredictable?


          New technologies, markets, competitors and capital start
           driving the business?


          What used to work…doesn’t?

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Global megatrends point to significant changes impacting mobility and
         the auto business




                                      Urbanization: majority of population will live in cities
                                      Rise of the East: growing influence of China
                                      Aging and Living Longer: old but active populations
             Demographics
                                      Youth: tech-savvy and involved
                                      Power of Women: growing affluence and influence
                                      Modern Family & Home: increasingly non-traditional


                                      Connected Life: ubiquitous digital communication
             Experiences and          Authentic & Sustainable: eco-deeds, not words
                 Values               Thoughtful Consumption: restraint
                                      Luxury: refinement vs. “bling”
                                      Creating an Experience: multi-sensory engagement
                                      Partners in Design: customer directed personalization



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Specific technology trends concentrate on the impact
        of electronics, computing and materials


             Computing                        Electrification          New Materials
             • Cloud Intelligence             • Smart Grid             • Stronger and Lighter
             • Never Delete                   • Energy Storage         • Smart Materials
             • Big Data                       • Cutting the Cable      • Bio Materials
             • Anywhere, Any Way
                                              Bio-based
                                              • Biomimetic             Embedded Intelligence (AI)
             Connected World
                                              • Bio-Fuels              • Robot Renaissance
             • Ubiquitous Free Wireless
                                              • Genetic Engineering    • Sensors & Actuators
             • Mobile Computing
                                              • Behavioral Economics   • Semantic Web
             • Internet of Things

             Information Fusion               Manufacturing 3.0
             • Analytics, Decision Sciences   • Open Manufacturing
             • Simulation & Virtual Worlds    • 3D Printing
                                              • Plant of the Future



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These trends are driving disruptive changes to the auto
        industry’s 100+ year old “DNA”…

                              Conventional                                      Disruptive
                     Petroleum based fuels                                  Energy diversity
               Internal combustion engines                                   Electric motors
       Independent mechanical components                            Integrated electronic systems
                Human control, stand-alone                       Autonomous, smart and connected
                             Stamped steel                        Bio-based and advanced materials
                          Mass production                                 Mass customization
                        Developed markets                                  Emerging markets
              Ownership / sales transaction                            Shared personal mobility
                      High barriers to entry                                  New entrants
                    Capital markets funding                              Private equity funding

             Agility is more important than forecasting when an industry is going through disruptive
             change in multiple areas simultaneously

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…and suggest that personal mobility will become more
       complex and diverse in the future
                                  Affordable    Low total cost of mobility (vehicle and fuel cost as well as
                                                maintenance, insurance, storage, depreciation, etc)
             Basic                Efficient     Low energy use, high utilization, minimal waste
                                  Safe          Protects occupants and goods in the vehicle and those
                                                around it
                                  Accessible    Personal mobility available to those previously excluded
                                                (young, old, poor, mega-urban…); and mobility available to
                                                all when and where needed
                                  Connected     Vehicles in communication with people, other vehicles,
                                                other machines, and infrastructure
         Emerging                 Intelligent   Vehicles anticipates needs and help solve mobility
                                                problems
                                  Adaptable     Reconfigurable / integrated with other transport modes
                                  Sustainable   Low total lifecycle environmental impact (material supply
                                                chain, production, operation, disposal)
                                  Enjoyable     A pleasing total mobility experience

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Thousand                   Annual Global New Vehicle Sales: 1980-2011
     80,000

     70,000

     60,000

     50,000

     40,000

     30,000

     20,000                    The market for new vehicles has doubled over the past 30 years…


     10,000

              -




                                                                                                              2004
                        1980

                                 1982

                                        1984

                                               1986

                                                      1988

                                                             1990

                                                                    1992

                                                                           1994

                                                                                  1996

                                                                                         1998

                                                                                                2000

                                                                                                       2002



                                                                                                                      2006

                                                                                                                             2008

                                                                                                                                    2010
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Annual Global New Vehicle Sales: Regional Mix
         Millions
                                BRIC           Developed (N.A. W-EUR, Japan)              Rest of the World
    50

    45

    40

    35

    30

    25

    20
                                      …but the regional mix has changed substantially….
    15

    10

      5

     -
            1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010


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Millions                         Annual U.S. New Vehicles Sales: 1968-2011
     20

     18

     16

     14

     12

     10
                                …while the US has been volatile, and remains at depressed levels.

        8
               68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10
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The Global Automotive “Gameboard”

             51.2%                             50.4%

                                                                                                                                              6%                77%
                 41%                                           JAPAN           EUROPE
                                                                                                         DAIMLER AG
                                                                               89.3%                                                          51.4%              44%
                                                  5.9%
                                                                                                                  100%
                                                 16.7%                                           Freightliner

                                                                                                                                                                   7%

                                                                                                                                                                        Nissan Motor
                                                                                                 GAZ                                                                  Light Trucks Co.
                                                  3.5%                                                                                                 15%
                                                                                                                     100%
                                                                                       100%
                                                                                                       RVI / Mack                                                               85%
                                                                                                                            Volvo Truck


                                                                                               100%
                                  3%             19.9%                                                    Geely
                                                                                                                                                                       3%      44.4%

                                                                                                                                                                               15%
         100%                    100%                                                                     BYD                         Chery
                                                                                        100%
                                                       54.2%
                                                                                                        Great Wall

                                                                          70%                                                                         99.3%        80.1%                 25%
          100%                 100%
                                                          INDIA                                          Proton       CHINA / SE ASIA

          75%                         89.2%
             MAN                Scania
                       17.4%                                           45.5%                                                                                  Last update: January 2013
                                                                                                            65%                100%            93.4%
                                                                                                                                                              OEMs in outer ring have
                                                                                                                                                              ≥5% global market share
                                                                                                                                                              italics = voting stock


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Intelligence skills and methods need to be different
    in a disruptive environment…


                          Conventional           Disruptive
                                 Experts        Connectors
                                  Trends      Discontinuities
                               Forecasts         Scenarios
                         Benchmarking           Anticipation
                                 Reports          Events
                    Recommendations        Options & Implications
           Analysis, analysis, analysis           Insights
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…need to work more on the blind-spots and “predictable
    surprises” rather than answering questions

                                            Known                      Unknown


              Known                      I know what I know        I know what I don’t know

                                          CONFIRMATION                   QUESTIONS



                                                                       I don’t know
            Unknown                   I don’t know what I know
                                                                     what I don’t know
                                           BAD MEMORY
                                                                        BLIND-SPOTS

                                                                 Opportunities & Threats


                                                                          Options
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Traditional intelligence scanning processes form a
    baseline and may be enough for a stable environment

                                      Leadership Direction
                                      •Strategic Intent
                                      •Priorities
     Field Input                      •Focus Issues
     • Local Operations
     • Government                                                 Forecasts            Budget &
       Officials                                      Annual
                                                                                       Business
     • Institutes                                   Conference
                                                                  Scenarios              Plan
     • Dealers
     • Consultants
                                      Staff Analysis
                                      • Market & Economic Data
                                      • Competitor & Technology
                                        Intelligence
                                      • Global Trends & Issues

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Emerging & disruptive forces scanning and assessment
   tools are valuable in times of higher uncertainty; events are
   more impactful than processes

       Strategic Intelligence             Futures Scans
       • Industry Dynamics &              • Abstracts
         Gameboard Scheming               • Workshops
                                                                     Strategy
       Disruptive Forces Analysis            Young “Turks”
       • Christensen model applied           • Technology      Advanced Work
         to key topics                         demos
                                                               M&A / Alliances
        Interest Groups               Symposia                  Contingencies
        • Self-forming                •Peripheral
          researcher                  •Cross-functional
          workgroups                  •External participants


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Auto Industry Examples


                                         Urban mobility
                                         Enterprise risk management
                                         Connectivity
                                         Autonomous Vehicles
                                         Ultra low cost transportation
                                         Mobile cyber-security
                                         China




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Case example: Urban Mobility

            Dense urbanization in developed and emerging markets could
             lead to new models of personal mobility


            Restrictions on vehicle use in city centers to manage
             congestion and emissions is becoming more prevalent


            The normally positive correlation between income level and
             vehicle density tends to break down as population density
             increases, effective public transportation systems become
             available and regulations / taxes deter personal vehicle usage


            The technologies, designs, and business models of urban
             mobility in dense mega-cities of the future could be unfamiliar to
             conventional automotive OEMs

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The Emergence of Megacities



                                                                                         19


                                                                                                                                       1
    11                                                          20                                                  17
                                      3
                                                                                                            6
                                                                                 15                    12                             14
                                                                                                                                       7

2
                                                                            16                                                         18
                                                                                                        5       8


                                                                                                                    9


                                4
                                                 13


                                          10


         •   Megacities are engines of growth, rising personal income
         •   Megacities produce mega-problems, such as traffic. Mobility in every megacity is unique
                                                                                                                Source: United Nations (2002)

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Developing cities are the most densely populated




                                                                    Manhattan




                                                                                           Source:
                                                                                           Alain
                                      Population density (people/hectare)                  Bertaud
                                                                                           (2002)
                                                                                  100,000/sq.mile
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Urban Mobility: GM EN-V Concept

        Personal urban mobility “Electric Networked
         Vehicles”
        2-person capacity with small storage space
         for everyday commute usage
        They can be manually driven or incorporated
         into autonomous driving infrastructures
        They can be personally owned or integrated
         into a multi-modal transportation system
        Designed for city center usage and speeds
        Efficient, clean, affordable transportation
        Door-to-door and 1st-mile/Last-mile solution




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Case example: Enterprise Risk Management


                          Conventional         Disruptive
                                  Audits       Assistance
                              Templates        Iteration
                                 Surveys      Workshops
                        Risk Avoidance      Risk Management
                              Mitigation     Contingencies
                              Check lists     Stress tests
                                 Threats     Opportunities


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Clay Phillips is Director, R&D Technology and Business
                                      Support at General Motors.

                                      Connect with Clay via:

                                      Web: http://www.linkedin.com/pub/clay-phillips/7/607/878
                                      Email: Clay.Phillips@GM.com


                   Clay Phillips
                 General Motors



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How Technology Intelligence Can Forecast Disruptive Innovations and Fuel Competitive Strategy

  • 1. How Technology Intelligence Can Forecast Disruptive Innovations and Fuel Competitive Strategy A Complimentary Webinar from Aurora WDC 12:00 Noon Eastern /// Wednesday 6 March 2013 ~ featuring ~ Clay Phillips Arik Johnson Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 2. Questions, Commentary & Content α Use the Questions pane on your GoToWebinar control panel and all questions will be answered in the second half of the hour. α You are welcome to tweet any comments on Twitter where we are monitoring the hashtag #IntelCollab or eavesdrop via http://tweetchat.com/room/IntelCollab α Slides will be available after the webinar for embedding and sharing via http://slideshare.net/IntelCollab α To view the recording and download the PPT file, please register for a trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com. Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 3. Key Take-Aways  Intelligence can have an important strategic role and impact when an industry is going through fundamental changes  Need to recognizing the difference between the rear-view mirror and the windshield, and that off-road capability may be required  Different tools, skills, and methods are needed to be effective in a disruptive environment  Communicating and getting traction on actionable intelligence with leadership in this environment is tough, but creativity and persistence can pay off Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 4. Topics  Framework  Background  Examples Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 5. Strategy requires understanding externalities, the options they create, and then making choices about priorities and resources, capabilities and capacities needed for a unique competitive advantage Externalities Options Choices Resource Allocation Mega- Trends Opportunities Customer Unique (Offense) Competitive Insights Threats Advantage Competitors’ (Defense) Strategies Capabilities and Capacities Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 6. Trend Network Structure “What customers want” Application: “What is required” • Advanced Design Projects Application: • Global Portfolio Planning Societal • Corporate Policy Trends Lead: Market Research • Engineering Standards Lead: Public Policy Lead: “What we offer” Market Research Applications: Policy Technology Trends Trends • Advanced Technical Global Work Trends • Technology Strategy Network Lead: Engineering “What is expected” “How and where we do Application: business” • Powertrain Portfolio Economic & Energy and Business Application: • Facilities Plan Environment Trends • Strategy Development Lead: Energy Center • Business Plan Lead: Economics Staff Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 7. The Global Auto Industry: What Happens When…  100 years of industry standards and norms become suspect?  Key drivers of market demand become unpredictable?  New technologies, markets, competitors and capital start driving the business?  What used to work…doesn’t? The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab 7 Powered by
  • 8. Global megatrends point to significant changes impacting mobility and the auto business Urbanization: majority of population will live in cities Rise of the East: growing influence of China Aging and Living Longer: old but active populations Demographics Youth: tech-savvy and involved Power of Women: growing affluence and influence Modern Family & Home: increasingly non-traditional Connected Life: ubiquitous digital communication Experiences and Authentic & Sustainable: eco-deeds, not words Values Thoughtful Consumption: restraint Luxury: refinement vs. “bling” Creating an Experience: multi-sensory engagement Partners in Design: customer directed personalization Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 9. Specific technology trends concentrate on the impact of electronics, computing and materials Computing Electrification New Materials • Cloud Intelligence • Smart Grid • Stronger and Lighter • Never Delete • Energy Storage • Smart Materials • Big Data • Cutting the Cable • Bio Materials • Anywhere, Any Way Bio-based • Biomimetic Embedded Intelligence (AI) Connected World • Bio-Fuels • Robot Renaissance • Ubiquitous Free Wireless • Genetic Engineering • Sensors & Actuators • Mobile Computing • Behavioral Economics • Semantic Web • Internet of Things Information Fusion Manufacturing 3.0 • Analytics, Decision Sciences • Open Manufacturing • Simulation & Virtual Worlds • 3D Printing • Plant of the Future Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 10. These trends are driving disruptive changes to the auto industry’s 100+ year old “DNA”… Conventional Disruptive Petroleum based fuels Energy diversity Internal combustion engines Electric motors Independent mechanical components Integrated electronic systems Human control, stand-alone Autonomous, smart and connected Stamped steel Bio-based and advanced materials Mass production Mass customization Developed markets Emerging markets Ownership / sales transaction Shared personal mobility High barriers to entry New entrants Capital markets funding Private equity funding Agility is more important than forecasting when an industry is going through disruptive change in multiple areas simultaneously Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 11. …and suggest that personal mobility will become more complex and diverse in the future Affordable Low total cost of mobility (vehicle and fuel cost as well as maintenance, insurance, storage, depreciation, etc) Basic Efficient Low energy use, high utilization, minimal waste Safe Protects occupants and goods in the vehicle and those around it Accessible Personal mobility available to those previously excluded (young, old, poor, mega-urban…); and mobility available to all when and where needed Connected Vehicles in communication with people, other vehicles, other machines, and infrastructure Emerging Intelligent Vehicles anticipates needs and help solve mobility problems Adaptable Reconfigurable / integrated with other transport modes Sustainable Low total lifecycle environmental impact (material supply chain, production, operation, disposal) Enjoyable A pleasing total mobility experience Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 12. Thousand Annual Global New Vehicle Sales: 1980-2011 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 The market for new vehicles has doubled over the past 30 years… 10,000 - 2004 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2006 2008 2010 Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 13. Annual Global New Vehicle Sales: Regional Mix Millions BRIC Developed (N.A. W-EUR, Japan) Rest of the World 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 …but the regional mix has changed substantially…. 15 10 5 - 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 14. Millions Annual U.S. New Vehicles Sales: 1968-2011 20 18 16 14 12 10 …while the US has been volatile, and remains at depressed levels. 8 68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 15. The Global Automotive “Gameboard” 51.2% 50.4% 6% 77% 41% JAPAN EUROPE DAIMLER AG 89.3% 51.4% 44% 5.9% 100% 16.7% Freightliner 7% Nissan Motor GAZ Light Trucks Co. 3.5% 15% 100% 100% RVI / Mack 85% Volvo Truck 100% 3% 19.9% Geely 3% 44.4% 15% 100% 100% BYD Chery 100% 54.2% Great Wall 70% 99.3% 80.1% 25% 100% 100% INDIA Proton CHINA / SE ASIA 75% 89.2% MAN Scania 17.4% 45.5% Last update: January 2013 65% 100% 93.4% OEMs in outer ring have ≥5% global market share italics = voting stock Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 16. Intelligence skills and methods need to be different in a disruptive environment… Conventional Disruptive Experts Connectors Trends Discontinuities Forecasts Scenarios Benchmarking Anticipation Reports Events Recommendations Options & Implications Analysis, analysis, analysis Insights Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 17. …need to work more on the blind-spots and “predictable surprises” rather than answering questions Known Unknown Known I know what I know I know what I don’t know CONFIRMATION QUESTIONS I don’t know Unknown I don’t know what I know what I don’t know BAD MEMORY BLIND-SPOTS Opportunities & Threats Options Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 18. Traditional intelligence scanning processes form a baseline and may be enough for a stable environment Leadership Direction •Strategic Intent •Priorities Field Input •Focus Issues • Local Operations • Government Forecasts Budget & Officials Annual Business • Institutes Conference Scenarios Plan • Dealers • Consultants Staff Analysis • Market & Economic Data • Competitor & Technology Intelligence • Global Trends & Issues Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 19. Emerging & disruptive forces scanning and assessment tools are valuable in times of higher uncertainty; events are more impactful than processes Strategic Intelligence Futures Scans • Industry Dynamics & • Abstracts Gameboard Scheming • Workshops Strategy Disruptive Forces Analysis Young “Turks” • Christensen model applied • Technology Advanced Work to key topics demos M&A / Alliances Interest Groups Symposia Contingencies • Self-forming •Peripheral researcher •Cross-functional workgroups •External participants Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 20. Auto Industry Examples  Urban mobility  Enterprise risk management  Connectivity  Autonomous Vehicles  Ultra low cost transportation  Mobile cyber-security  China Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 21. Case example: Urban Mobility  Dense urbanization in developed and emerging markets could lead to new models of personal mobility  Restrictions on vehicle use in city centers to manage congestion and emissions is becoming more prevalent  The normally positive correlation between income level and vehicle density tends to break down as population density increases, effective public transportation systems become available and regulations / taxes deter personal vehicle usage  The technologies, designs, and business models of urban mobility in dense mega-cities of the future could be unfamiliar to conventional automotive OEMs Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 22. The Emergence of Megacities 19 1 11 20 17 3 6 15 12 14 7 2 16 18 5 8 9 4 13 10 • Megacities are engines of growth, rising personal income • Megacities produce mega-problems, such as traffic. Mobility in every megacity is unique Source: United Nations (2002) Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 23. Developing cities are the most densely populated Manhattan Source: Alain Population density (people/hectare) Bertaud (2002) 100,000/sq.mile Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 24. Urban Mobility: GM EN-V Concept  Personal urban mobility “Electric Networked Vehicles”  2-person capacity with small storage space for everyday commute usage  They can be manually driven or incorporated into autonomous driving infrastructures  They can be personally owned or integrated into a multi-modal transportation system  Designed for city center usage and speeds  Efficient, clean, affordable transportation  Door-to-door and 1st-mile/Last-mile solution Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 25. Case example: Enterprise Risk Management Conventional Disruptive Audits Assistance Templates Iteration Surveys Workshops Risk Avoidance Risk Management Mitigation Contingencies Check lists Stress tests Threats Opportunities Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 26. Clay Phillips is Director, R&D Technology and Business Support at General Motors. Connect with Clay via: Web: http://www.linkedin.com/pub/clay-phillips/7/607/878 Email: Clay.Phillips@GM.com Clay Phillips General Motors The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve real- world business problems. Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com or learn more about Aurora at http://AuroraWDC.com – see you next time! Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab