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How Technology Intelligence Can Forecast Disruptive Innovations and Fuel Competitive Strategy
1. How Technology Intelligence
Can Forecast Disruptive
Innovations and Fuel
Competitive Strategy
A Complimentary Webinar from Aurora WDC
12:00 Noon Eastern /// Wednesday 6 March 2013
~ featuring ~
Clay Phillips Arik Johnson
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3. Key Take-Aways
Intelligence can have an important strategic role and impact when
an industry is going through fundamental changes
Need to recognizing the difference between the rear-view mirror
and the windshield, and that off-road capability may be required
Different tools, skills, and methods are needed to be effective in a
disruptive environment
Communicating and getting traction on actionable intelligence
with leadership in this environment is tough, but creativity and
persistence can pay off
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4. Topics
Framework
Background
Examples
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5. Strategy requires understanding externalities, the options they
create, and then making choices about priorities and resources,
capabilities and capacities needed for a unique competitive
advantage
Externalities Options Choices
Resource
Allocation
Mega-
Trends Opportunities
Customer Unique
(Offense) Competitive
Insights
Threats Advantage
Competitors’ (Defense)
Strategies
Capabilities and
Capacities
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6. Trend Network Structure “What customers want”
Application:
“What is required” • Advanced Design Projects
Application: • Global Portfolio Planning
Societal
• Corporate Policy Trends
Lead: Market Research
• Engineering Standards
Lead: Public Policy
Lead: “What we offer”
Market Research Applications:
Policy Technology
Trends Trends • Advanced Technical
Global Work
Trends • Technology
Strategy
Network Lead: Engineering
“What is expected” “How and where we do
Application: business”
• Powertrain Portfolio Economic &
Energy and
Business Application:
• Facilities Plan Environment
Trends • Strategy Development
Lead: Energy Center • Business Plan
Lead: Economics Staff
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7. The Global Auto Industry:
What Happens When…
100 years of industry standards and norms become
suspect?
Key drivers of market demand become unpredictable?
New technologies, markets, competitors and capital start
driving the business?
What used to work…doesn’t?
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8. Global megatrends point to significant changes impacting mobility and
the auto business
Urbanization: majority of population will live in cities
Rise of the East: growing influence of China
Aging and Living Longer: old but active populations
Demographics
Youth: tech-savvy and involved
Power of Women: growing affluence and influence
Modern Family & Home: increasingly non-traditional
Connected Life: ubiquitous digital communication
Experiences and Authentic & Sustainable: eco-deeds, not words
Values Thoughtful Consumption: restraint
Luxury: refinement vs. “bling”
Creating an Experience: multi-sensory engagement
Partners in Design: customer directed personalization
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9. Specific technology trends concentrate on the impact
of electronics, computing and materials
Computing Electrification New Materials
• Cloud Intelligence • Smart Grid • Stronger and Lighter
• Never Delete • Energy Storage • Smart Materials
• Big Data • Cutting the Cable • Bio Materials
• Anywhere, Any Way
Bio-based
• Biomimetic Embedded Intelligence (AI)
Connected World
• Bio-Fuels • Robot Renaissance
• Ubiquitous Free Wireless
• Genetic Engineering • Sensors & Actuators
• Mobile Computing
• Behavioral Economics • Semantic Web
• Internet of Things
Information Fusion Manufacturing 3.0
• Analytics, Decision Sciences • Open Manufacturing
• Simulation & Virtual Worlds • 3D Printing
• Plant of the Future
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10. These trends are driving disruptive changes to the auto
industry’s 100+ year old “DNA”…
Conventional Disruptive
Petroleum based fuels Energy diversity
Internal combustion engines Electric motors
Independent mechanical components Integrated electronic systems
Human control, stand-alone Autonomous, smart and connected
Stamped steel Bio-based and advanced materials
Mass production Mass customization
Developed markets Emerging markets
Ownership / sales transaction Shared personal mobility
High barriers to entry New entrants
Capital markets funding Private equity funding
Agility is more important than forecasting when an industry is going through disruptive
change in multiple areas simultaneously
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11. …and suggest that personal mobility will become more
complex and diverse in the future
Affordable Low total cost of mobility (vehicle and fuel cost as well as
maintenance, insurance, storage, depreciation, etc)
Basic Efficient Low energy use, high utilization, minimal waste
Safe Protects occupants and goods in the vehicle and those
around it
Accessible Personal mobility available to those previously excluded
(young, old, poor, mega-urban…); and mobility available to
all when and where needed
Connected Vehicles in communication with people, other vehicles,
other machines, and infrastructure
Emerging Intelligent Vehicles anticipates needs and help solve mobility
problems
Adaptable Reconfigurable / integrated with other transport modes
Sustainable Low total lifecycle environmental impact (material supply
chain, production, operation, disposal)
Enjoyable A pleasing total mobility experience
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12. Thousand Annual Global New Vehicle Sales: 1980-2011
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000 The market for new vehicles has doubled over the past 30 years…
10,000
-
2004
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2006
2008
2010
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13. Annual Global New Vehicle Sales: Regional Mix
Millions
BRIC Developed (N.A. W-EUR, Japan) Rest of the World
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
…but the regional mix has changed substantially….
15
10
5
-
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
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14. Millions Annual U.S. New Vehicles Sales: 1968-2011
20
18
16
14
12
10
…while the US has been volatile, and remains at depressed levels.
8
68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10
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15. The Global Automotive “Gameboard”
51.2% 50.4%
6% 77%
41% JAPAN EUROPE
DAIMLER AG
89.3% 51.4% 44%
5.9%
100%
16.7% Freightliner
7%
Nissan Motor
GAZ Light Trucks Co.
3.5% 15%
100%
100%
RVI / Mack 85%
Volvo Truck
100%
3% 19.9% Geely
3% 44.4%
15%
100% 100% BYD Chery
100%
54.2%
Great Wall
70% 99.3% 80.1% 25%
100% 100%
INDIA Proton CHINA / SE ASIA
75% 89.2%
MAN Scania
17.4% 45.5% Last update: January 2013
65% 100% 93.4%
OEMs in outer ring have
≥5% global market share
italics = voting stock
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16. Intelligence skills and methods need to be different
in a disruptive environment…
Conventional Disruptive
Experts Connectors
Trends Discontinuities
Forecasts Scenarios
Benchmarking Anticipation
Reports Events
Recommendations Options & Implications
Analysis, analysis, analysis Insights
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17. …need to work more on the blind-spots and “predictable
surprises” rather than answering questions
Known Unknown
Known I know what I know I know what I don’t know
CONFIRMATION QUESTIONS
I don’t know
Unknown I don’t know what I know
what I don’t know
BAD MEMORY
BLIND-SPOTS
Opportunities & Threats
Options
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18. Traditional intelligence scanning processes form a
baseline and may be enough for a stable environment
Leadership Direction
•Strategic Intent
•Priorities
Field Input •Focus Issues
• Local Operations
• Government Forecasts Budget &
Officials Annual
Business
• Institutes Conference
Scenarios Plan
• Dealers
• Consultants
Staff Analysis
• Market & Economic Data
• Competitor & Technology
Intelligence
• Global Trends & Issues
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19. Emerging & disruptive forces scanning and assessment
tools are valuable in times of higher uncertainty; events are
more impactful than processes
Strategic Intelligence Futures Scans
• Industry Dynamics & • Abstracts
Gameboard Scheming • Workshops
Strategy
Disruptive Forces Analysis Young “Turks”
• Christensen model applied • Technology Advanced Work
to key topics demos
M&A / Alliances
Interest Groups Symposia Contingencies
• Self-forming •Peripheral
researcher •Cross-functional
workgroups •External participants
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20. Auto Industry Examples
Urban mobility
Enterprise risk management
Connectivity
Autonomous Vehicles
Ultra low cost transportation
Mobile cyber-security
China
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21. Case example: Urban Mobility
Dense urbanization in developed and emerging markets could
lead to new models of personal mobility
Restrictions on vehicle use in city centers to manage
congestion and emissions is becoming more prevalent
The normally positive correlation between income level and
vehicle density tends to break down as population density
increases, effective public transportation systems become
available and regulations / taxes deter personal vehicle usage
The technologies, designs, and business models of urban
mobility in dense mega-cities of the future could be unfamiliar to
conventional automotive OEMs
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22. The Emergence of Megacities
19
1
11 20 17
3
6
15 12 14
7
2
16 18
5 8
9
4
13
10
• Megacities are engines of growth, rising personal income
• Megacities produce mega-problems, such as traffic. Mobility in every megacity is unique
Source: United Nations (2002)
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23. Developing cities are the most densely populated
Manhattan
Source:
Alain
Population density (people/hectare) Bertaud
(2002)
100,000/sq.mile
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24. Urban Mobility: GM EN-V Concept
Personal urban mobility “Electric Networked
Vehicles”
2-person capacity with small storage space
for everyday commute usage
They can be manually driven or incorporated
into autonomous driving infrastructures
They can be personally owned or integrated
into a multi-modal transportation system
Designed for city center usage and speeds
Efficient, clean, affordable transportation
Door-to-door and 1st-mile/Last-mile solution
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26. Clay Phillips is Director, R&D Technology and Business
Support at General Motors.
Connect with Clay via:
Web: http://www.linkedin.com/pub/clay-phillips/7/607/878
Email: Clay.Phillips@GM.com
Clay Phillips
General Motors
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