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  • 1. How Strategic Intelligence Elevates New Business Development Success A Complimentary Webinar from Aurora WDC 12:00 Noon Eastern /// 21 August 2013 ~ featuring ~ Terry Thiele The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Derek Johnson Powered by
  • 2. Terry Thiele Terry Thiele has been with The Lubrizol Corporation for 13 years, during which time his principal responsibilities have included strategic planning support and regulatory compliance and advocacy, with an emphasis on environmental matters. Before joining Lubrizol, Terry performed environmental policy and government relations functions for AB Electrolux and the General Electric Company. Prior to that he spent the first 11 years of his career working in the Federal government with service in the Treasury Department, the Central Intelligence Agency, The Defense Intelligence Agency and the Executive Office of the President. He received his B.A. magna cum laude from Princeton University in 1976, his J.D. from the NYU School of Law in 1979 and graduated from the National War College in 1987. Terry served for over 10 years in the U.S. Army Reserve, Judge Advocate General Corps, honorably discharged with the rank of captain. Email: Terry.Thiele@lubrizol.com The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve realworld business problems. Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com or learn more about Aurora at http://AuroraWDC.com – see you next time! The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 3. Questions, Commentary & Content α α α α The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Use the Questions pane on your GoToWebinar control panel and all questions will be answered in the second half of the hour. You are welcome to tweet any comments on Twitter where we are monitoring the hashtag #IntelCollab or eavesdrop via http://tweetchat.com/room/IntelCollab Slides will be available after the webinar for embedding and sharing via http://slideshare.net/IntelCollab To view the recording and download the PPT file, please register for a trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com. Powered by
  • 4. Agenda ► New Business Development Definitions ► Why NBD is Critical ► NBD Challenges ► Finding NBD Opportunities ► Summary, Q&A and Discussion The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 5. New Business Development (NBD) Definitions Evolutionary innovation improves an existing value chain incrementally Revolutionary innovation step-change improvement to existing value chain Disruptive innovation disrupts existing value chain with new and different value proposition The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 6. Forms of NBD Customer Value Evolutionary Innovation: incremental change (“mountain climbing”) Design Parameters The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 7. Forms of NBD Customer Value Revolutionary Innovation: step-change (“chasm leaping”) Design Parameters The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 8. Forms of NBD Customer Value Disruptive Innovation: different game (“rule breaking”) Design Parameters The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 9. Forms of NBD New Product Development vs. New Business Development ► New products ► New markets ► New value propositions The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 10. Why NBD is Critical Porter’s Five Forces http://hbr.org/product/the-five-competitive-forces-that-shape-strategy/an/R0801E-PDF-ENG?referral=00269 The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 11. Why NBD is Critical http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2012/11/20/what-killed-michael-porters-monitor-group-the-one-force-that-really-matters/?utm_medium=linkedin The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 12. Why NBD is Critical What has no future is strategy conceived as defeating rivals by finding a sustainable comparative advantage simply through studying the structure of the industry and juggling the numbers. Since Monitor had no other arrow in its strategy quiver, it was doomed from the outset. Its embarrassing debacle marked the beginning of the end of the era of business metaphysics and the exposure of the most over-valued idea on the planet: sustainable competitive advantage. http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2012/11/20/what-killed-michael-porters-monitor-group-the-one-force-that-really-matters/?utm_medium=linkedin The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 13. Market Value – Revenue Why NBD is Critical “One of a Kind” Value Migration High Growth High Margins High Cost Low Competition Static Growth Moderate Margins Declining Cost Increasing Competition Declining Growth Shrinking Margins Low Cost High Competition “Commodity” Value Creation – Stability – Value Destruction Slywotzky, Adrian J. (1996), Value Migration: How to Think Several Moves Ahead of the Competition, Boston, Mass: Harvard Bus School Press, ISBN 0-87584-632-7. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 14. Why NBD is Critical Running a business is like riding a bicycle… The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 15. Why NBD is Critical Running a business is like riding a bicycle… If you don’t keep peddling… The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 16. Why NBD is Critical Running a business is like riding a bicycle… If you don’t keep peddling… You fall over. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 17. NBD Challenges The importance of organization… http://www.learnlogic.net/ideation-integrated-into-processes/ The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 18. NBD Challenges The importance of culture… Culture Culture Culture Culture The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 19. NBD Challenges The importance of market analysis… A cautionary tale The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 20. NBD Challenges The importance of TIME… A cautionary tale Tolerances… The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 21. Finding NBD Opportunities So where do you start? Go to where the food is… The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 22. Finding NBD Opportunities Strategic Business Planning – Assumes ability to forecast future events. – Focuses on planning for an anticipated future. – Driven by probable, not potential impact. Scenario Planning – Identifies alternative possible futures X years out and then looks back to the present (“backcasting”). – Possible futures based upon major transformational themes likely to affect business beyond year X. – Driven by potential impact, not probability. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 23. Finding NBD Opportunities: Scenario Planning Strategic Business Planning – Assumes ability to forecast future events. – Focuses on planning for an anticipated future. – Driven by probable, not potential impact. Scenario Planning – Identifies alternative possible futures X years out and then looks back to the present (“backcasting”). – Possible futures based upon major transformational themes likely to affect business beyond year X. – Driven by potential impact, to probability. Scenario planning  foresightnotrecognize, adapt and possibly influence future events before they hit you… The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 24. Finding NBD Opportunities: Scenario Planning The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 25. Finding NBD Opportunities: Scenario Planning The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 26. Finding NBD Opportunities: Scenario Planning The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 27. Current – Markets/Customers – New Finding NBD Opportunities: Scenario Planning SCARY SAFE Current The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab – Products/Technology – New Powered by
  • 28. Finding NBD Opportunities: Scenario Planning The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 29. Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology 1. Describe your entire value chain RAW MATERIALS TRANSPORTATION MANUFACTURING WHO VALUES WHAT? TRANSPORTATION RETAIL CHANNEL 1 RETAIL CHANNEL 2 CONSUMER A The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab RETAIL CHANNEL n CONSUMER Ω Powered by
  • 30. Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology 2. Describe your competitors’ value chain(s) RAW MATERIALS TRANSPORTATION MANUFACTURING WHO VALUES WHAT? TRANSPORTATION RETAIL CHANNEL 1 RETAIL CHANNEL 2 CONSUMER A The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab RETAIL CHANNEL n CONSUMER Ω Powered by
  • 31. Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology 3. Compare and contrast WHO VALUES WHAT? The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 32. Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology 4. ID critical uncertainties for each link in all value chains out X years. NEW ALTERNATIVES? RAIL CAPACITY? 3D PRINTING? SHALE OIL IMPACT? INTERNET SALES? DEMOGRAPHICS? The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 33. Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology 5. Assess the critical uncertainties. Are they evolutionary? revolutionary? disruptive? NEW ALTERNATIVES? RAIL CAPACITY? 3D PRINTING? SHALE OIL IMPACT? INTERNET SALES? DEMOGRAPHICS? The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 34. Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology 6. Take the two most “important” critical uncertainties for each value chain: build scenarios. ► Depending on the value chains, you may have more than one set of scenarios. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 35. Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology CURRENT The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 36. Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology 7. Ask WHO VALUES WHAT in each scenario. ► Directionally, this should point you toward future potentially profitable value offerings. ► Depending on the critical uncertainties, how you choose to act may influence which scenario actually emerges. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 37. Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology 8. Build your NBD strategy. ► STRATEGIC PLANNING: TOPIC FOR ANOTHER DAY ... The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 38. Finding NBD Opportunities: A WARNING … The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 39. Finding NBD Opportunities: A WARNING … The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  • 40. Thank you! Now how about a little Q&A? Email: Terry.Thiele@Lubrizol.com Terry Thiele The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve realworld business problems. Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com or learn more about Aurora at http://AuroraWDC.com – see you next time! The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by