How Intelligence Helps Business Make Better Decisions in Unpredictable Times


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What have we learned in the past 20 years about aligning intelligence leadership, priorities, personnel, processes and systems with strategic effectiveness and organizational performance?

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How Intelligence Helps Business Make Better Decisions in Unpredictable Times

  1. 1. Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  2. 2. Intelligence Has Always Been About Improving Decision-Making  Strategic Decisions  What Business are We in and Where are New Opportunities for Growth?  Operational Decisions  How do we structure and align those business units to most effectively compete for and win Market Share?  Tactical Decisions  Which customers are available to us and how can we convince them to select us over any and all functional equivalents? Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  3. 3. Deep-Dive HUMINT Insights delivered through Human Intelligence… Intelligence Part 1: Often discrete strategic and/or tactical information obtained ethically and legally Part 2: Abstraction, evaluation, and understanding of such information Part 3: Distribution and application of contextual analysis to inform decision makers to gain an advantage in commerce Human Intelligence Intelligence gathered through the use of interpersonal (HUMINT) contact as opposed to other technical or secondary methods Environment - Competitors Operations Market  Executive Strategy/Profiling  Human Resources  Market Sizing  Mergers & Acquisitions  Marketing & Sales  Market Forecasting & Sensing  Alliances & Partnerships  Research & Development  Market Forces Analyses  Products & Services  Planning & Logistics  Disruptive Forces  Sales Force  Customer Care / Service  Strategic Issues  Go-to-Market  Partner Evaluations  Country Opportunity & Risk  Supply Chain  Public Affairs / Regulatory  STEEP / PESTEL  Order Logistics  Internal Networks  Emerging Trends  Order Fulfillment  Growth Vectors  Post-sales Service & SupportThe Intelligence Collaborative Powered by 3 #IntelCollab
  4. 4. Three Key Business Trends Driving Intelligence Evolution Human Capital & Enterprise Collaboration Everyone in the Firm becomes a Virtual Member of the Intelligence Apparatus, Better Engagement by Rank & File, Shared Visibility of Issues & Actions Corporate Governance & Risk Oversight Board-level Priority Ensuring Reliability of Management’s Earnings Forecast & Assessing Risks to Status Quo Business Model Disruption & Value Innovation Predicting the Outcome of Competitive Battles by Anticipating Changes in Product/Strategy Dynamics Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
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  8. 8. Competing head-to-head can be cutthroat especially when markets are flat or growing slowly. Managers caught in this kind of competition almost universally say they dislike it and wish they could find a better alternative. They often know instinctively that innovation is the only way they can break free from the pack. But they simply don’t know where to begin. Chan Kim and Renee Mauborgne Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  9. 9. Success Breeds Complacency “It is a classic conundrum for business titans: How much money and attention should be focused on a new, but growing, operation that is far less profitable than the core business?” - Prof. Clayton Christensen, The Innovators Dilemma Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  10. 10. Disruptive Innovation Theory Sustaining Innovations Better Products Brought to Performance Established Markets Difference Performance Measure Low-End Disruptions Target Overshot Customers with a Lower Cost Business Model New-Market Disruption Compete Against Nonconsumption Time Nonconsumers or Nonconsuming Contexts Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  11. 11. Customer Demand & Signals of Change 1. Non-Market Contexts: External Forces (Government, Economics, etc.) Increasing or Decreasing Barriers to Innovation 2. Undershot Consumers: Opportunities for Up-Market Sustaining Innovations 3. Overshot Consumers: Opportunities for Low-End Disruption, Shifting Profits by Specialist Displacements (Modularity) and the Emergence of Rules 4. Non-Consumers: Opportunities for New Market Disruptive Growth Established Companies almost always Lose to Disruptive Innovators Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  12. 12. THE STARFISH & THE SPIDER The Unstoppable Power of Leaderless Organizations Although spiders and starfish may look alike, starfish have a miraculous quality to them. Cut off the leg of a spider, and you have a seven-legged creature on your hands; cut off its head and you have a dead spider. But cut off the arm of a starfish and it will grow a new one, and the severed arm can grow an entirely new body. Starfish can achieve this feat because, unlike spiders, they are decentralized; every major organ is replicated across each arm. But starfish don’t just exist in the animal kingdom. Starfish organizations are changing the rules of strategy and competition and are organized on very different principles than we are used to seeing in traditional organizations. Spider organizations are centralized and built around org charts; on the other hand, Starfish organizations tend to organize around a shared worldview or ideology. And the Internet has helped them flourish. Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
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  14. 14. THE BLACK SWAN The Impact of the Highly Improbable The human mind suffers from three ailments as it comes into contact with history, called the triplet of opacity: 1.the illusion of understanding, or how everyone thinks they know what is going on in a world that is more complicated (or random) than they realize; 2.the retrospective distortion, or how we can assess matters only after the fact, as if they were in a rearview mirror (history seems clearer and more organized in history books than in empirical reality); and, 3.the overvaluation of factual information and the handicap of authoritative or learned people, particularly when they create categories – or "Platonify." Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  15. 15. U.S. Intelligence Community Failed to Evolve Unexpected new threats from non-traditional enemies like al Qaeda emerged on the geopolitical stage in the vacuum of Americas return to international economic, political and cultural hegemony after the end of the Cold War. Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  16. 16. Bias for familiarity leads management to ignore important indicators of change Strategy should be a response to intelligence… not the other way around Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  17. 17. Strategy is focused on what the organization wants to do in the world; intelligence is focused on what the world wants next. Unsound Strategy, Policy and Decisions are the Product of an Intelligence Agenda Dictated from Above Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  18. 18. Intelligence 2.0 The Era of Asymmetric Interpretation • Intelligence 1.0 was about acquiring short-lived information advantages (Competitive Advantage through Asymmetries of Information), though fleeting and risky to the firms reputation and ethics. • The transition is now complete to an open source world of "info-glut" where asymmetric information gaps are increasingly difficult to obtain and maintain and interpretation becomes far more important as everyone looks at the same corpus of data but sees something different. • Web 2.0 and Enterprise 2.0 pinpoint a shift in organizational culture – the “Facebooking” of the workforce means everyone in the enterprise can become a casually-engaged virtual member of the intelligence apparatus and should be instructed how to help most productively. • Intelligence will extend into aspects of organizational culture and workforce engagement – which I differentiate from full-time intelligence staff as “reconnaissance” – but centralized, specialist intelligence staff will persist and embed themselves into the domains of organizational problem-solving. Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  19. 19. Intelligence 2.0 Asymmetric Interpretation Depends on Both Decisive & Incisive Sensing Decisive Incisive Frame of Reference is the Scanning for Trends, there may be Decision no Decision made Compares Options & Outcomes Historical Patterns & Anomalies Recommendations & Trust Implications for the Reader Top-Down Imposition Bottom-Up Exposition Driven by Issues Driven by Trends Product is Decision/Action Product is Observation Factual & Hypothetical Emergent & Skeptical Confidential & Proprietary Open Source Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  20. 20. Intelligence 2.0 Engages the Workforce in Collaborative Sensing to Anticipate and Act on Industry Change Signals of Change Likely Outcome of Strategic Choices Competitive Influencing Battles Success Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  21. 21. Evolving toward Analysis 2.0 The Prior Generation Analysis 2.0  Individual expertise  Collaborative expertise  Heavy System 1 thinking  Heavy System 2 thinking  6-10 MBA-type methods  Master 24-36 CI methods  Unstructured techniques  Structured analytics  Convenient contacts  Managed intel networks  Use KITs? Misapplied?  KITs+1  Data drives methods  Methods drive data  Limited multi-media  Heavy social media  Scheduled/as-needed  Real-time analytics  “Weak-ened” warriors  Analytic fitness Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  22. 22. KITs+1 The Framework Early Warning Key Players Strategic Issue KITs+1 Diagnostic test for placement at program entry and pre-course module QUALIFIER Forecasting Competitor Profiles Porters Five Forces Analysis Deliverables Event & Timeline Customer SWOT/TOWS Basic Statistics for Segmentation Analysts S-curve (Technology Financial Ratio and STEEP/PESTEL Goals of Analysis Life Cycle) analysis Statements BRONZE Experience Curve Four Corners Critical Success Alternative analysis analysis Factors (CSF) Competing analysis Hypotheses (ACH) Growth Vector Functional McKinsey 7S Communicating analysis Capabilities & analysis Analysis -- Visually Resource analysis Product Life Cycle Win-Loss analysis Stakeholder analysis Guiding Data analysis Collection Efforts Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  23. 23. Developing Peak Analytical Fitness (AF) • Aim: To create “fit” analysts who are able to perform at highest levels in their fields of endeavor • Analogy: You can train and develop analysts in much the same manner as Olympic-class athletes are trained • Process elements include: 1. Initial diagnosis of the individual’s AF level, calibration 2. Customized mapping out of L/T AF improvement plan and shorter-term “game plans” • Supported by KITs+1 framework 3. Participate in regular analytical conditioning 4. Identification of analytical “plays” needed to be run 5. Establishment of practice routines 6. Provision of analytical coaching, instruction • Often adds mentoring by more senior analysts 7. Participation working with other same-company practitioners on “live fire” analytical exercises 8. Regularly scheduled AF testing Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  24. 24. Implications for Intelligence Practitioners Under Analysis 2.0 Practitioners will: 1.Perform analysis more frequently as part of teams (which are going to be more multi-disciplinary or functional), as opposed to on an individual basis 2.Learn and employ a greater range of analytical methods, tools and techniques 3.Actively help inform the choice of enterprise-level data gathering systems & solutions in support of intelligence activities 4.Continually train and develop their analytical thinking 5.Match KITs to methods and use more planning effort to drive data acquisition to populate their choices 6.Work more closely with colleagues in knowledge management, HR and communication to achieve cross-functional synergy Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  25. 25. Performance Driven Organizational Reconnaissance Based on Performance Management Perspectives such as the Balanced Scorecard Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  26. 26. Startup Intermediate Peak Roadmapping 3-Phases of Readiness TASKING What? COLLECTION So What? ANALYSIS Now What? DISSEMINATION Intel Team Audit SME Profiling / OSINT Intel Fitness Assessments, Client Definition, Push- Team Fundamentals & Demand Generated Delphi Interviews with Key HUMINT / Willingness to Training People Executive Clients share/contribute Asking Better Questions Client Fitness & Culture Enterprise-wide Recognition Ability to Protect Confidential Intel Community, Internal & Pull-Demand Action of Intel Value by the IP, Elicitation Across the External Workforce Workforce Who? OSINT Self-Service (Email, SWOT, Industry, Five Forces, Email, Asynchronous Market Research Derivative / Google) Competitor Financials - Ad-Hoc Reactive Methods Client-Driven / Defined SME Nets, Ad-Hoc Field Benchmarking, Win/Loss, Intranet / Portal & HUMINT, Portals STEEP, 4Cs - Proactive (Intranet/SharePoint) Systems Real-Time, Two-Way Scenarios & Simulations, Systematic / Initiative / Crowdsourcing, Mobile, SME Value Chain & Business Model Persistent Apps Metrics Nets Formalized - Predictive How? Stick-fetching / Service Free Subscriptions, Google Reports / Alerts / Profiles Newsletters, Key Players Bureau / Responsive Alerts, SharePoint Products Network Hub, Summarized Situational, Events, Issues & Decision & More Intuitive, KIT & Market & Industry Analyses Hand-Off to Execs Support KIQ-driven Services Interactive, Business Early Warning, Detection & Invited to Decision Forums, “Consigliere” / G2 Performance Focused, Drives Anticipation of Industry Ability to Tap SME Nets “at Strategic Advisor Problem-Solving Change What? will” with Success Unstructured Known Needs Competitor Activity & Plans Situational Assessment Mostly Push, Basic Reporting Convenient, Limited Clients (Reactive) Mission Market & Industry Internal / External Mix of Early Warning, Strategic Push / Pull “Balancing Act” & Trends (Defensive) Some Key SBU’s Issues, Key Players Priorities Systematic, Real-time Balanced Scorecard, and Client-Pull, Customized to Scenarios, Futures, Problem-Solving, Other BPM-driven Individual Preferences and Why? Disruptions (Offensive) Enterprise-wide Applications Needs Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  27. 27. What’s Next? Leadership to Act is Based on Confidence Intelligence Combats the Paralysis that Accompanies Uncertainty Aurora WDC is at work building the Intelligence Collaborative as a destination from the web and mobile for sharing the best intelligence ideas, fortnightly webinars with intelligence experts and visionaries, high-intensity “interval training” via the exclusive Technique of the Week with Dr. Craig Fleisher, opportunities for networking and events, blogs and resource guides, and much more. While we build please express your interest in joining us at Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  28. 28.  While we build please express your interest in joining us at  Questions after conclusion:  Email:  Phone: +1-715-450-5130  Twitter: @ArikJohnson Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative 28 #IntelCollab