How Early Warning and Response Intelligence Applies to Crisis Management

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How Early Warning and Response Intelligence Applies to Crisis Management

  1. 1. How Early Warning and Response Intelligence Applies to Crisis Management A Complimentary Webinar from Aurora WDC 12:00 Noon Eastern /// 16 October 2013 ~ featuring ~ Joe Goldberg The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Derek Johnson Powered by
  2. 2. Joe Goldberg has over 25 years of experience in intelligence, political risk, crisis management, public and corporate strategy, communications and media research. Previously, he was Senior Director, Intelligence in Motorola’s Corporate Strategy Office where he was responsible for worldwide intelligence processes, competitive analysis and collection. Prior to joining Motorola, he worked for the U.S. Government for eight years where he was involved in all facets of information collection and political analysis. Joe is a past President of SCIP’s Board of Directors, a SCIP Fellow (2006), and in 2013 was presented the association’s highest honor – the Meritorious Award. He has a BA in Political Science, and Communications and Theater Arts from the University of Iowa, and a Masters of Arts degree from Iowa in Communications. Joe Goldberg Email: joe@jeggroup.com The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve realworld business problems. Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com or learn more about Aurora at http://AuroraWDC.com – see you next time! The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  3. 3. Questions, Commentary & Content α α α α The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Use the Questions pane on your GoToWebinar control panel and all questions will be answered in the second half of the hour. You are welcome to tweet any comments on Twitter where we are monitoring the hashtag #IntelCollab or eavesdrop via http://tweetchat.com/room/IntelCollab Slides will be available after the webinar for embedding and sharing via http://slideshare.net/IntelCollab To view the recording and download the PPT file, please register for a trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com. Powered by
  4. 4. Agenda ► What is a Crisis? ► Crisis and Intelligence ► Case Studies ► Bottom Lines ► Q&A and Discussion The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  5. 5. Acknowledgements Crisis in Organizations II Crisis Leadership Now By Laurence Barton The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  6. 6. Crisis events are unpredictable… • • • • A situation, sudden or evolving, that could result in significant disruptions to business operations, reputation, or survival. They are not strategic shifts, or tactical changes in a market. A crisis is serious. It goes beyond normal demands or leadership actions. Origins, causes, manifestations are many and varied. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  7. 7. …but not always unanticipated. • • • • Crisis Management (CM) is a process to identify the potential serious situation. The process creates organizational response and communication plan frameworks in advance. Structure, plans, people, and culture form the elements of CM capabilities. It demands extraordinary management. Evaluation Preparation Crisis Response Crisis Management Cycle The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  8. 8. Intelligence is Foundational to Crisis Processes • • • • • Environmental scanning, Early Warning, War-gaming, etc. Adept at creating and utilizing systems to gather, monitor and interpret information. “Free-thinkers” who are not easily distracted by events. Comfortable sifting through large amounts of data to find critical insights. We know the difference between reliable information and rumor and conjecture. Evaluation Intelligence Filter The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Preparation Crisis Response Powered by
  9. 9. Intelligence is Part of the Crisis Management Team (CMT): • Preparation, Training, Plans • Experience in working with diverse teams Legal Strategy & Intelligence • Strategic thinking and horizon scanning • Support communications and stakeholder deliverables “Any team attempting to make potential life or death or business critical decisions must have the best and most timely information at its fingertips.” The Cornerstones of Crisis Management The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab HR CMT Leadership PR Security IT Crisis Management Team (Size and members can vary as needed) Powered by
  10. 10. To be effective, the CMT must have a clear understanding of what has happened, what is happening and have a vision of how the future may play out: This is the role of Intelligence In crisis situations, intelligence must help decision-making answer key questions, such as: • • • • What are we going to do now? What are we going to do next? What should we be thinking about and doing in the future? What is the worst case scenario? It involves taking an objective assessment of the situation - the known and recognized facts - developing a strategy and delivering direction quickly. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  11. 11. Preparation: Intelligence Understands Early Warning Processes – We Explore Potential Threats and Issues “Classical” Intelligence activities: Evaluation Preparation Crisis Response The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab • • • • • • • Proactive thinking War-gaming SWOT KITs Benchmarking External relationships Training Powered by
  12. 12. Response: In a Crisis, the Intelligence Function Must Do What It Always Does, Just Quicker • Evaluation Preparation Crisis Response The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab • • • • • • • Direct leadership and CMT support Vulnerability assessments Crisis response scenarios Communications strategies Social Media mining News filtering External relationships Starting to look post-crisis Powered by
  13. 13. Speed is an Inherent Characteristic of a Crisis: The Complexity of Social Media • • • • Everything happens at lightning-speed. Overwhelming amount of data to filter. Staff are required to work under immense pressure. News, rumor, conjecture, inaccuracies spread fast. Media Sharing Editorial 0 Hour CRISIS HITS TIME The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by Source: Ogilvy Public Relations Worldwide
  14. 14. There is No Refuge From a Crisis • Crises do not just happen to major corporations. They can strike everywhere: hospitals, schools small businesses, sports teams, churches, and governments. • And in each instance, accurate, timely information is critical. • News spread quickly one Saturday evening that former Penn State football coach Joe Paterno had died. Except, he hadn’t. When there is bad intelligence, bad things happen…. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  15. 15. Bad Intel used by CBS Bad Sourcing Bad day for CBS (CBS did not source OnwardState). Bad for the image of CBS The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  16. 16. Speed: Social Media Impact - BP Spill, April 20 – July 15, 2010 • 97,00 blog posts discussing BP, with 1,084 new posts per day • 2,992 links in 30 days • 3,940 videos uploaded to YouTube containing the exact match of “BP Oil Spill The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab • A fake Twitter account was created to parody BP’s efforts. The account had 134,792 followers - 1,036% greater than the official BP Twitter account • BP’s official Facebook Page averaged over 155 comments per BP wall post Powered by
  17. 17. Evaluation: Intelligence Plays a Role Post-Crisis • Evaluation Preparation • • Crisis Response • The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Look for areas for improvement by reviewing the crisis, evaluating the response, the plans and procedures, tools and facilities. There could be a new business reality post-crisis. The objective nature of Intelligence can serve as a lead function to identify this new environment. Provide recommendations and new warning mechanisms Powered by
  18. 18. The Unpredictable Crisis Motorola: September 11, 2001 Situation: Following the terrorist attacks of 9-11, Motorola had to determine the impact these events would have on its future business operations. The company's world-wide crisis team was convened and tasked with gathering and analyzing all relevant news and data in order to provide recommendations regarding company positioning and operational planning. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  19. 19. The Unpredictable Crisis Motorola: September 11, 2001 Actions: Working with relevant business functions, the intelligence team prepared and oversaw the creation of threat assessments. These focused on global business facilities, personnel, transportation, and supply chain management. It also undertook the task of projecting other possible terror crisis scenarios and then created response plans to avoid or minimize business interference to the corporation. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  20. 20. The Unpredictable Crisis Motorola: September 11, 2001 “Most-likely” country vulnerability assessments: • Threats to personnel • • • Travel Hostage/ransom Death • Threats to facilities • • Symbol of USA Continuity • Threats to business operations • • Supply chain Air embargo • Scenarios in Chicago – Are we next? The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  21. 21. The Anticipated Crisis SARS – Avian Flu 2002-2004 Situation: In late 2002, SARS began to work its way around the world. By the time the outbreak ended in July 2003, about 800 people in 26 countries had died from the disease, just under 10 percent of those believed to have been infected. The vast majority of SARS cases were reported in Asia. Concerns about the disease led to severe travel restrictions in some countries, closure of premises by government authorities, quarantines, and other business disruptions. The Asian Development Bank estimated the total lost business revenue at about $60 billion. The 2004 bird-flu crisis had many similarities to the outbreak of SARS. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  22. 22. The Anticipated Crisis SARS – Avian Flu 2002-2004 Actions: Global CMT call weekly to discuss business continuity elements in case of the pandemic. Primary focus was current event update, communication plan, contingency plan by country, and on-going monitoring plans. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  23. 23. The Unpredictable Crisis Motorola: September 11, 2001 Primary intelligence focus was on news filtering, external source development: • Asia business units monitored local press and reported. • Reports collected from relevant global health organizations (WHO, UN, CDC). • Contacts made with experts and analysis following the issue. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  24. 24. Joe’s Bottom Line Statement #1: Help Your Company Avoid the “Nothingness Culture” “Nothing Happened” A thought process similar to counterintelligence in business The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab “Nothing Happened” “So nothing will happen…” Powered by
  25. 25. Joe’s Least Bottom Line Statement #2 “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.” – Mike Tyson The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
  26. 26. Thank you! Now how about a little Q&A? Email: joe@jeggroup.com Joe Goldberg The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve realworld business problems. Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com or learn more about Aurora at http://AuroraWDC.com – see you next time! The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by

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