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How Systematically Analyzing Innovation Trends Makes Industry Change Predictable

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Imagine a company that knows which changes are coming from their competitive landscape… A company that develops products and services to meet their current customer needs while simultaneously building …

Imagine a company that knows which changes are coming from their competitive landscape… A company that develops products and services to meet their current customer needs while simultaneously building a pipeline of future offerings that will become new industry standards.

Are we talking about Intel, GE, Google or Bank of America? No.

We’re talking about you.

While most assume that the future is unknowable and only the lucky few hit the sweet spot with their upcoming product and service offerings, it is possible to see accurately what lies is over the horizon. Utilizing the Trends of Innovation Evolution, both business and engineering focused organizations can understand what is coming their way and position themselves to take full advantage of industry changes. The systematic analysis of proven trends can catapult your organization into a leadership position well ahead of the remaining industry followers.

The session will look specifically at examples of innovation analysis such as:

- business trends that will define what your industry looks like in the future
- technology trends that will manifest themselves in upcoming products and systems
- how understanding innovation trends can effectively guide your organization's future

David Conley, President of Innomation Corp., will present 30 minutes of thought provoking ideas on how the study and use of the Trends of Innovation Evolution can guide your organization confidently forward. David holds engineering and business degrees and just recently left his post as Intel Corporation's lead systematic innovation specialist in order to share his expertise with you. The session will moderated by Arik Johnson, Founder & Chairman of Aurora WDC and Managing Director of Aurora’s R&D lab, the Center for Organizational Reconnaissance (COR).

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  • 1. How Systematically Analyzing Innovation Trends Makes Industry Change Predictable A Complimentary Webinar from Aurora WDC 12:00 Noon Eastern /// Wednesday 23 January 2013 ~ featuring ~ David Conley Arik Johnson Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 2. Questions, Commentary & Content α Use the Questions pane on your GoToWebinar control panel and all questions will be answered in the second half of the hour. α You are welcome to tweet any comments on Twitter where we are monitoring the hashtag #IntelCollab or eavesdrop via http://tweetchat.com/room/IntelCollab α Slides will be available after the webinar for embedding and sharing via http://slideshare.net/IntelCollab α To view the recording and download the PPT file, please register for a trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com. Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 3. Agenda  Why is Predicting the Future so Hard?  Trends of Engineering Evolution  Trends of Business Evolution  Utilizing Trends to Power Your Crystal Ball  Summary, Q&A and Discussion Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 4. Why is Predicting the Future so Hard? • The majority of organizations use traditional forecasting techniques (i.e., extrapolation) in an attempt to “see” into the future Case Study – In June of 2007 an electric vehicle start up wanted to predict gas prices in order to plan market introduction timing for their product The marketing group forecasted that consumers would buy their electric vehicles once avg. US gas prices hit $4.50 because the average driver would then be spending over $430/month on petroleum based fuel (equivalent electric “fuel” cost would be $40/month) Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 5. Why is Predicting the Future so Hard? • Most organizations use extrapolation in an attempt to “see” into the future Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 6. Why is Predicting the Future so Hard? Extrapolation said that the product introduction target would hit in May of 2010$4.50 4.60 4.31 May 2010 Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 7. Better yet, sales would soar Why is Predicting the Future so Hard? because prices would hit $5.80/gallon by June of 2013$5.80 Extrapolation said that the product introduction target 4.60 would hit in May of 2010$4.50 4.31 May 2010 June 2013 Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 8. Why is Predicting the Future so Hard? • Actual average gas prices in the US Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 9. Why is Predicting the Future so Hard? Extrapolated estimate • Actual average gas resulted in a $2.60/gallon prices in the US error error Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 10. Why is Predicting the Future so Hard? Extrapolation not only assumes that existing market profiles will hold true • Actual average gas but that the established rates of change prices in the US will continue into the future error Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 11. Why is Predicting the Future so Hard? Accuracy Traditional Forecasting Trends of System Methodologies Evolution Time Why are Trends any better for forecasting?  Qualitative not Quantitative  Excellent long-range accuracy  Effectively predicts jumps in technology and business advancements  Effectively identifies new product, production and service opportunities Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 12. Trends of Engineering System Evolution Trend of S-Curve Evolution Trend of Increasing Value Trend of Transition Trend of Increasing Trend of Increasing Trend of Flow to the Super system Completeness of System Degree of Trimming Enhancement Components Trend of Uneven Trend of Elimination Trend of Increasing Development of of Human Involvement Coordination System Components Trend of Increasing Trends developed Controllability Hierarchy from a 65 year of study of over 3.5 Trend of Increasing Trends Dynamization million patents Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 13. Trends of Engineering System Evolution Trend of Increasing Dynamization bar soap bar soap w/ additive Example: Surfactant (soap) Monolith Monolith (differentiated One Joint Multi-joint parameters) Elastic What does this example mean for manufacturers of Field Gaseous Liquid Powderer appliances, consumables, clothing, etc.? gas soap liquid soap powdered soap field soap Trend of Increasing Dynamicity Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 14. Trends of Engineering System Evolution Trend of Increasing Dynamization Example: Print MethodsAlso appliesto internalsystem Monolithcomponents Monolith (differentiated One Joint Multi-joint parameters) Elastic Field Gaseous Liquid Powderer Trend of Laser Jet Ink Jet Increasing Dynamicity Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 15. Trends of Engineering System Evolution Trend of S-Curve Evolution Trend of Increasing Value Trend of Transition Trend of Increasing Trend of Increasing Trend of Flow to the Super system Completeness of System Degree of Trimming Enhancement Components Trend of Uneven Trend of Elimination Trend of Increasing Development of of Human Involvement Coordination System Components Trend of Increasing Controllability Hierarchy of Trend of Increasing Dynamization Trends Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 16. Trends of Engineering System Evolution  As an eng. sys. evolves the number of system functions performed by humans decrease.  A decrease in human involvement leads to an increase in system completeness.Trend of Decreasing Human Involvement Trend of Increasing System Completeness Humans Stop Performing: System Starts Performing: Transmission Energy Source What does this particular example mean for Control manufacturers of appliances, and Trend of Decreasing food products, or Human Involvement the restaurant and & Increasing System vending Decision Making Completeness industries? Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 17. Trends of Business System Evolution Trend of S-Curve Evolution Trend of Increasing Value Trend of Increasing Trend of Increasing Customer Expectations Trend of Transition Trend of Increasing Completeness of Business Degree of Trimming to the Super system System Trend of Customer Purchase Focus Trend of Increasing Sys. Robustness Inc. Asymmetry Trend of Elimination Inc. Non-Linearity of Human Involvement Trend of Increasing Inc. Dimensionality Coordination Inc. Degrees of Freedom Inc. Self-Org Awareness Inc. Org. Knowledge Trend of Increasing Possible Controllability Inc. Org. Competency Inc. Process Thinking Hierarchy of Trend of Increasing Inc. Coord. Action Inc. Coord. Rhythm Trends Dynamization Inc. Dampening Reduction Inc. Feedback and Control Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 18. Trends of Business System Evolution Trend of Increasing Customer Expectations  As customers have more understanding of a business system their expectations of the process increase. commodity product service experience transformation Ronald What will McDonaldsMcDonalds McDonald, play look like when they Consistent move to the areas, themed never sold product served transformation stage Hamburgers restaurants, (custom products ground beef quickly and at a commercials, target to individuals pre-set price clean “happy” based on company’s stores expertise)? Powered by The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 19. Trends of Business System Evolution Trend of S-Curve Evolution Trend of Increasing Value Trend of Increasing Trend of Increasing Customer Expectations Trend of Transition Trend of Increasing Completeness of Business Degree of Trimming to the Super system System Trend of Customer Purchase Focus Trend of Increasing Sys. Robustness Inc. Asymmetry Trend of Elimination Inc. Non-Linearity of Human Involvement Trend of Increasing Inc. Dimensionality Coordination Inc. Degrees of Freedom Inc. Self-Org Awareness Inc. Org. Knowledge Trend of Increasing Possible Controllability Inc. Org. Competency Inc. Process Thinking Hierarchy of Trend of Increasing Inc. Coord. Action Inc. Coord. Rhythm Trends Dynamization Inc. Dampening Reduction Inc. Feedback and Control Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 20. Trends of Business System Evolution Trend of Increasing Action Coordination  As processes mature they increasingly coordinate with their internal operations and with the environment Non-coordinated Partially Fully coordinated Different actions action coordinated action action during intervals Pull based output i.e. - Switching to Output coordinated Full output regardless coordinated with R&D activities with market forecasts of market demand customer orders support during “non- (semi-conductor (subsidized farming) (computer demand” periods manufacturing) manufacturing) (process/product improvement) At what stage is your organization and how can it be moved up the Trend line? Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 21. Utilizing Trends to Power Your Crystal Ball 1 • Establish where the analyzed system is on one or all of the Trend lines • Organization’s products and services • Organization’s production and business systems • Competitor’s products and services 2 • Identify which trend manifestations lay beyond the current location on each Trend studied above • Move as far down the Trend line as possible • Not an estimate or extrapolation: identified changes will occur • Look for disruptive changes on the horizon 3 • Design how the current system could be modified to suffice the future Trend states • Plan product, service, and process changes • Establish plans to respond to market disruptions Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  • 22. David Conley is President of Innomation Corporation, which he founded after leaving his post leading systematic innovation initiatives for five of his 17 years at global semiconductor manufacturing leader, Intel. Connect with David via: Web: http://InnomationCorp.com David Conley Email: David@InnomationCorp.com President, Innomation Corp. The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve real- world business problems. Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab