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James Heckman_apresentação Seminário Educação para o Século 21

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Apresentação da palestra de James Heckman, no Seminário Educação para o Século 21, promovido pelo Instituto Ayrton Senna. Saiba mais: http://www.educacaosec21.org.br/

Apresentação da palestra de James Heckman, no Seminário Educação para o Século 21, promovido pelo Instituto Ayrton Senna. Saiba mais: http://www.educacaosec21.org.br/

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  • 1. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Hard Evidence on Soft Skills James J. Heckman University of Chicago; University College Dublin; Director, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group, Institute for New Economic Thinking Noncognitive Skills: Importance and the Relation with Cognitive Abilities Ayrton Senna Institute Sao Paulo, Brazil October 25, 2011 Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 2. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References We live in an era of widespread testing. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 3. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References We live in an era of widespread testing. Achievement tests in particular have assumed a prominent role. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 4. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References We live in an era of widespread testing. Achievement tests in particular have assumed a prominent role. They are used to: Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 5. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References We live in an era of widespread testing. Achievement tests in particular have assumed a prominent role. They are used to: i Measure skills of persons (e.g., SAT, ACT, ENEM, GRE, GED) and certify suitability for admission and qualifications in a variety of domains of life. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 6. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References We live in an era of widespread testing. Achievement tests in particular have assumed a prominent role. They are used to: i Measure skills of persons (e.g., SAT, ACT, ENEM, GRE, GED) and certify suitability for admission and qualifications in a variety of domains of life. ii To measure the performance of schools and entire national school systems and nations (e.g. PISA scores, NCLB) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 7. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References These tests are not well understood. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 8. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References These tests are not well understood. a What do they measure? Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 9. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References These tests are not well understood. a What do they measure? b How are they validated? What do they predict? Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 10. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References These tests are not well understood. a What do they measure? b How are they validated? What do they predict? c What do they miss? Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 11. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Achievement tests miss—or perhaps better—do not accurately capture—soft skills. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 12. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Achievement tests miss—or perhaps better—do not accurately capture—soft skills. Personality traits, goals, motivations, and preferences that are valuable in the labor market, in school, and in many other domains. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 13. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References A Multiple skills are useful in predicting and causing economic and social success but with different weights in different tasks. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 14. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References A Multiple skills are useful in predicting and causing economic and social success but with different weights in different tasks. i People differ in their endowments of these skills. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 15. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References A Multiple skills are useful in predicting and causing economic and social success but with different weights in different tasks. i People differ in their endowments of these skills. ii These differences in endowments and values of endowments across tasks give rise to comparative advantage and sorting in the labor market. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 16. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References A Multiple skills are useful in predicting and causing economic and social success but with different weights in different tasks. i People differ in their endowments of these skills. ii These differences in endowments and values of endowments across tasks give rise to comparative advantage and sorting in the labor market. B Personality traits—“soft skills”—can be measured. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 17. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References A Multiple skills are useful in predicting and causing economic and social success but with different weights in different tasks. i People differ in their endowments of these skills. ii These differences in endowments and values of endowments across tasks give rise to comparative advantage and sorting in the labor market. B Personality traits—“soft skills”—can be measured. i They are often as predictive of many life outcomes as are measures of cognition. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 18. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References A Multiple skills are useful in predicting and causing economic and social success but with different weights in different tasks. i People differ in their endowments of these skills. ii These differences in endowments and values of endowments across tasks give rise to comparative advantage and sorting in the labor market. B Personality traits—“soft skills”—can be measured. i They are often as predictive of many life outcomes as are measures of cognition. ii Personality traits have causal effects on behavioral outcomes: changing traits through interventions changes life outcomes. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 19. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References C Ignoring personality traits can deceive: conceals major social problems by using achievement test scores as the measure of success. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 20. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References C Ignoring personality traits can deceive: conceals major social problems by using achievement test scores as the measure of success. D Traits are stable across situations. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 21. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References C Ignoring personality traits can deceive: conceals major social problems by using achievement test scores as the measure of success. D Traits are stable across situations. i Yet they can also be changed in a gradual way through investment and experience. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 22. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References C Ignoring personality traits can deceive: conceals major social problems by using achievement test scores as the measure of success. D Traits are stable across situations. i Yet they can also be changed in a gradual way through investment and experience. ii Enhancing these traits is an important avenue for policy. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 23. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References C Ignoring personality traits can deceive: conceals major social problems by using achievement test scores as the measure of success. D Traits are stable across situations. i Yet they can also be changed in a gradual way through investment and experience. ii Enhancing these traits is an important avenue for policy. E No evidence for extreme situational specificity of the sort once advocated by Walter Mischel (1968). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 24. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References C Ignoring personality traits can deceive: conceals major social problems by using achievement test scores as the measure of success. D Traits are stable across situations. i Yet they can also be changed in a gradual way through investment and experience. ii Enhancing these traits is an important avenue for policy. E No evidence for extreme situational specificity of the sort once advocated by Walter Mischel (1968). F Situational specificity — that we are what we need to be in any specific situation — plays a prominent role in modern behavioral economics. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 25. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References C Ignoring personality traits can deceive: conceals major social problems by using achievement test scores as the measure of success. D Traits are stable across situations. i Yet they can also be changed in a gradual way through investment and experience. ii Enhancing these traits is an important avenue for policy. E No evidence for extreme situational specificity of the sort once advocated by Walter Mischel (1968). F Situational specificity — that we are what we need to be in any specific situation — plays a prominent role in modern behavioral economics. G There are “enduring traits” that persist and govern behavior across multiple domains of economic and social life. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 26. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References I draw on recent research on the GED, an achievement test that secondary school dropouts in the U.S. can take to certify that they are the equivalents (in cognition) of high school graduates. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 27. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References I draw on recent research on the GED, an achievement test that secondary school dropouts in the U.S. can take to certify that they are the equivalents (in cognition) of high school graduates. Brazil has a version of this test applied on a wide scale (ENEM). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 28. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References What Are the Lessons from This Research? Success in life requires a lot more than what is measured by academic achievement tests. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 29. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References What Are the Lessons from This Research? Success in life requires a lot more than what is measured by academic achievement tests. Soft skills matter. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 30. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References What Are the Lessons from This Research? Success in life requires a lot more than what is measured by academic achievement tests. Soft skills matter. Personality—“character” broadly defined—can be measured. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 31. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References What Are the Lessons from This Research? Success in life requires a lot more than what is measured by academic achievement tests. Soft skills matter. Personality—“character” broadly defined—can be measured. Personality can be fostered. It is an important, but neglected, component of what schools and families produce. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 32. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References What Are the Lessons from This Research? Success in life requires a lot more than what is measured by academic achievement tests. Soft skills matter. Personality—“character” broadly defined—can be measured. Personality can be fostered. It is an important, but neglected, component of what schools and families produce. A focus on achievement tests fostered by movements for “accountability” distorts the incentives of students and teachers. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 33. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References A Brief History of Testing Goal of developers of IQ and achievement tests: to produce “objective” and “comparable” measures of children and schools. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 34. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References A Brief History of Testing Goal of developers of IQ and achievement tests: to produce “objective” and “comparable” measures of children and schools. Pioneers recognize their limits. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 35. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References A Brief History of Testing Goal of developers of IQ and achievement tests: to produce “objective” and “comparable” measures of children and schools. Pioneers recognize their limits. They understood that schools produced more than simple “book learning” — academic knowledge — expressed frustration about how to measure it. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 36. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Early educators lacked a conceptual framework for thinking about what exactly should be measured. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 37. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Early educators lacked a conceptual framework for thinking about what exactly should be measured. They lacked the technology for implementing such tests on a wide spread scale. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 38. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References IQ IQ in its modern form is an early Twentieth Century invention. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 39. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References IQ IQ in its modern form is an early Twentieth Century invention. It was conceived as a measure of the capacity to learn. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 40. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References IQ IQ in its modern form is an early Twentieth Century invention. It was conceived as a measure of the capacity to learn. Was later broadened to a concept of ability to solve abstract problems. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 41. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References IQ IQ in its modern form is an early Twentieth Century invention. It was conceived as a measure of the capacity to learn. Was later broadened to a concept of ability to solve abstract problems. IQ was tested on a wide scale. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 42. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References IQ IQ in its modern form is an early Twentieth Century invention. It was conceived as a measure of the capacity to learn. Was later broadened to a concept of ability to solve abstract problems. IQ was tested on a wide scale. The successful application of the IQ test suggested the possibility of testing achievement — what was learned — not just the ability to learn — on a wide scale. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 43. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References IQ IQ in its modern form is an early Twentieth Century invention. It was conceived as a measure of the capacity to learn. Was later broadened to a concept of ability to solve abstract problems. IQ was tested on a wide scale. The successful application of the IQ test suggested the possibility of testing achievement — what was learned — not just the ability to learn — on a wide scale. First IQ test was designed to screen out misfits in school. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 44. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References IQ IQ in its modern form is an early Twentieth Century invention. It was conceived as a measure of the capacity to learn. Was later broadened to a concept of ability to solve abstract problems. IQ was tested on a wide scale. The successful application of the IQ test suggested the possibility of testing achievement — what was learned — not just the ability to learn — on a wide scale. First IQ test was designed to screen out misfits in school. Role of the test was broadened to capture “intelligence” and quickly became associated with “g”. (Terman and Thorndike) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 45. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References IQ IQ in its modern form is an early Twentieth Century invention. It was conceived as a measure of the capacity to learn. Was later broadened to a concept of ability to solve abstract problems. IQ was tested on a wide scale. The successful application of the IQ test suggested the possibility of testing achievement — what was learned — not just the ability to learn — on a wide scale. First IQ test was designed to screen out misfits in school. Role of the test was broadened to capture “intelligence” and quickly became associated with “g”. (Terman and Thorndike) But the creators of IQ tests realized their limitations. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 46. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Binet: “[Success in school] . . .admits of other things than intelligence; to succeed in his studies, one must have qualities which depend on attention, will, and character; for example a certain docility, a regularity of habits, and especially continuity of effort. A child, even if intelligent, will learn little in class if he never listens, if he spends his time in playing tricks, in giggling, in playing truant.” -Binet (1916, p. 254) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 47. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References “What are the chief personality traits which, interacting with g, relate to individual differences in achievement and vocational success? The most universal personality trait is conscientiousness, that is, being responsible, dependable, caring, organized and persistent.” -Jensen (1998, p. 575) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 48. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References The modern conception of intelligence has moved well beyond “g ” to a hierarchy of traits. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 49. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References The modern conception of intelligence has moved well beyond “g ” to a hierarchy of traits. But “g ” is still at the top of the hierarchy. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 50. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 1: Modern View of “g ”: An Hierarchical Scheme of General Intelligence and Its Components Math Reasoning Visual Perception Closure Quantitative Reasoning Visualization Closure Speed Math Problems Spatial Relations Closure Flexibility Closure Speed Closure Flexibility gf Serial Perceptual Integration (Fluid Intelligence) Spatial Scanning Sequential Reasoning Imagery Perceptual Speed Inductive Reasoning Number Computation Quantitative Reasoning RT and other Elementary Cognitive Tasks Piagetian Reasoning Stroop Clerical Speed gc Gc Digit/Symbol (Crystallized Intelligence) Verbal Comprehension General Lexical Knowledge g= Learning and Memory Intelligence Memory Span Reading Comprehension Associative Memory Reading Speed Free Recall Memory “Cloze” Meaningful Memory Spelling Visual Memory Phonetic Coding Ideational Fluency Grammatical Sensitivity Ideational Fluency Knowledge and Achievement Foreign Language Naming Facility General School Achievement Communication Expressional Fluency Verbal Information and Knowledge Listening Word Fluency Information and Knowledge, Math and Science Oral Production Creativity Technical and Mechanical Knowledge Oral Style Figural Fluency Knowledge of Behavioral Content Writing Figural Flexibility Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 51. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Operationalizing IQ Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 52. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Problem similar to the Raven’s Progressive Matrices test items Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 53. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Problem similar to the Raven’s Progressive Matrices test items Correct answer: 5 Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 54. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Origins of the Modern Achievement Test Achievement tests were created in the wake of the IQ test as a way to capture the knowledge acquired in schools, not just the capacity to learn. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 55. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Origins of the Modern Achievement Test Achievement tests were created in the wake of the IQ test as a way to capture the knowledge acquired in schools, not just the capacity to learn. The distinction between knowledge and the ability to acquire it is clear. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 56. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Origins of the Modern Achievement Test Achievement tests were created in the wake of the IQ test as a way to capture the knowledge acquired in schools, not just the capacity to learn. The distinction between knowledge and the ability to acquire it is clear. How one separates these concepts empirically is not so clear, especially since the ability to acquire knowledge is not a fixed trait but can be changed. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 57. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References General Knowledge The inventors of the achievement test sought to measure “useful knowledge” or “general knowledge” valuable in functioning at work and in society, not specific knowledge of a course. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 58. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References General Knowledge The inventors of the achievement test sought to measure “useful knowledge” or “general knowledge” valuable in functioning at work and in society, not specific knowledge of a course. Designed to be “objective”—not depend on teacher assessments as captured by grades. This was perceived to be a way to implement meritocratic notions of education. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 59. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References General Knowledge The inventors of the achievement test sought to measure “useful knowledge” or “general knowledge” valuable in functioning at work and in society, not specific knowledge of a course. Designed to be “objective”—not depend on teacher assessments as captured by grades. This was perceived to be a way to implement meritocratic notions of education. Iowa tests; ACT; GED; ENEM; No Child Left Behind; NAEP; PISA tests are modern versions. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 60. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Iowa Test of Educational Development (ITED) Developed in 1930s and 1940s. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 61. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Iowa Test of Educational Development (ITED) Developed in 1930s and 1940s. The prototype for all achievement tests. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 62. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References What matters most is not how many detailed facts a person can quote, but how well he can make use of what he knows, and how straight he can think about personal and group problems. The Iowa Tests, therefore, were planned to measure the fundamental ideas the student has acquired permanently, and what he is able to do with them. This seemed much more important than just measuring the specific information he had memorized in a course, which he would forget after the final exam. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 63. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References They were planned to measure the real knowledge and reasoning ability a student had, no matter how he had acquired them . . . -Lindquist (1948) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 64. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Achievement tests are designed to measure acquired knowledge. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 65. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Achievement tests are designed to measure acquired knowledge. But what motivates students to acquire knowledge? Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 66. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Achievement tests are designed to measure acquired knowledge. But what motivates students to acquire knowledge? Cognition, personality, as well as environmental determinants, such as parents, teachers, and peers. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 67. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References What Do Schools Produce? Is it just the knowledge captured by standard achievement tests? Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 68. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References What Do Schools Produce? Is it just the knowledge captured by standard achievement tests? Every creator of an achievement test thought otherwise. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 69. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Mann: “Hence to value schools, by length instead of quality, is a matchless absurdity. Arithmetic, grammar, and the other rudiments, as they are called, comprise but a small part of the teachings in a school. The rudiments of feeling are taught not less than the rudiments of thinking. The sentiments and passions get more lessons than the intellect. Though their open recitations may be less, their secret rehearsals are more.” -Horace Mann (1867, p. 420) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 70. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Other mechanisms of assessment besides the objective exam were often suggested. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 71. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References “We lean heavily on written examinations, on a few types of objective tests, and on the subjective impressions of teachers. Many other appraisal devices could be used, such as records of activities in which pupils participate, questionnaires, check lists, anecdotal records and observational records, interviews, reports made by parents, products made by the pupils, and records made by instruments (motion pictures, eye-movement records, sound recordings, and the like).” -Tyler (1940) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 72. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References But time and again, the achievement test won out as a cheap tool of assessment. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 73. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References But time and again, the achievement test won out as a cheap tool of assessment. Other methods were more costly, even if they missed a lot. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 74. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References How are IQ and achievement tests validated? Usually on grades and other tests. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 75. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References How are IQ and achievement tests validated? Usually on grades and other tests. This is ironic in light of the fact that the achievement test was invented in order to avoid the “subjectivity” of grades. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 76. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Table 1: Predictive Validities of Standard IQ and Achievement Tests Cognitive Achievement and IQ Tests Test Domain over Estimated Validities Source Notes which it is validated SAT First year col- 0.35 to 0.53 Kobrin et al. (2008) lege GPA ACT Grades in 0.42 ACT Incorporated early years of (2007) college Stanford- Correlations 0.77 to 0.87 with WISC-R Rothlisberg (1987); Binet with other Greene et al. (1990) intelligence tests WISC Correlations WISC: 0.443 to 0.751 Hartlage and Steele WRAT = (Wechsler with aca- with WRAT tests, 0.482 (1977) Wide Range Intelligence demic to 0.788 with 1st grade Achievement Scale for achievement grades, 0.462 to 0.794 with Test; ranges Children) 2nd grade grades; WISC-R: are given 0.346 to 0.760 with WRAT because cor- tests, 0.358 to 0.537 with relations vary 1st grade grades, 0.420 by academic to 0.721 with 2nd grade subject grades Source: Almund et al. (2011). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 77. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Table 1: Predictive Validities of Standard IQ and Achievement Tests Cognitive Achievement and IQ Tests Test Domain over Estimated Validities Source Notes which it is validated WAIS (Wech- Correlations 0.67 (median) with ver- Feingold (1982) sler Adult with other bal tests, 0.61 (median) Intelligence intelli- with nonverbal tests, 0.69 Scale) gence tests, with education attained, achievement 0.38 to 0.43 with col- tests, and lege grades, 0.62 with high outcomes school grades Raven’s Correlations 0.74 to 0.84 with WAIS-R O’Leary et al. Standard with other (1991) Progressive intelligence Matrices tests GATB (Gen- Supervisor 0.23 to 0.65 Hunter (1986) Large range eral Aptitude rating per- due to variety Test Battery) formance of jobs in training programs and in job performance Source: Almund et al. (2011). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 78. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Table 1: Predictive Validities of Standard IQ and Achievement Tests Cognitive Achievement and IQ Tests Test Domain over Estimated Validities Source Notes which it is validated ASVAB Performance 0.37 to 0.78 for training Schmidt et al. Large range (Armed in military (mean=0.56); -0.15 for at- (1988) for perfor- in training Services training trition mance in training correlations Vocational programs programs; Sticht due to a Aptitude and military et al. (1982) for variety of Battery) attrition rates attrition rates jobs GED (Gen- Test difficulty 0.33 to 0.49 for HS Senior Technical Manual: eral Ed- is normed GPA 2002 Series GED ucational against grad- Tests Develop- uating HS ment) seniors. Test scores of high school seniors and grades of high school seniors Other Valid- Correlation .75–.79 AFQT, .78 NALS, Boesel et al. (1998) ity Studies of with other .81 Iowa Tests the GED achievement tests Source: Almund et al. (2011). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 79. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Table 1: Predictive Validities of Standard IQ and Achievement Tests Cognitive Achievement and IQ Tests Test Domain over Estimated Validities Source Notes which it is validated DAT (Dif- Correlations 0.13 to 0.62 for college Omizo (1980) Large range is ferential with aca- GPA due to vary- Aptitude demic ing validity of Tests) achievement eight subtests of DAT WIAT Correlation 0.80 with grade 4 CAT/2, Michalko and CAT=California (Wechsler with other 0.69 with grade 5 CAT/2, Saklofske (1996) Achievement Individual achievement 0.83 with grade 6 CAT/2; Test Achievement tests; teacher 0.67 with teacher ratings Test) ratings of student achievement Source: Almund et al. (2011). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 80. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Only recently has the validity of the tests on real world outcomes been established. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 81. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Only recently has the validity of the tests on real world outcomes been established. They predict a bit, but they leave a lot unexplained. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 82. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Only recently has the validity of the tests on real world outcomes been established. They predict a bit, but they leave a lot unexplained. Achievement tests and grades are usually more predictive than IQ. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 83. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Table 2: Validities in Labor Market Outcomes from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979 NLSY79 Table of Proportion of Explained Variance (tests and school performance) Source: Borghans et al. (2011) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 84. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Personality Personality and Motivation: missing dimensions that predict adult performance. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 85. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Personality Personality and Motivation: missing dimensions that predict adult performance. Some of the missing dimensions manifest in these tables that explain a variety of educational and labor market outcomes. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 86. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Personality Personality and Motivation: missing dimensions that predict adult performance. Some of the missing dimensions manifest in these tables that explain a variety of educational and labor market outcomes. Economist’s “Dark Matter” or “Dark Energy.” Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 87. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Personality Personality and Motivation: missing dimensions that predict adult performance. Some of the missing dimensions manifest in these tables that explain a variety of educational and labor market outcomes. Economist’s “Dark Matter” or “Dark Energy.” One popular measurement system: Big Five — OCEAN Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 88. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Personality Personality and Motivation: missing dimensions that predict adult performance. Some of the missing dimensions manifest in these tables that explain a variety of educational and labor market outcomes. Economist’s “Dark Matter” or “Dark Energy.” One popular measurement system: Big Five — OCEAN Openness Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 89. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Personality Personality and Motivation: missing dimensions that predict adult performance. Some of the missing dimensions manifest in these tables that explain a variety of educational and labor market outcomes. Economist’s “Dark Matter” or “Dark Energy.” One popular measurement system: Big Five — OCEAN Openness Conscientiousness Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 90. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Personality Personality and Motivation: missing dimensions that predict adult performance. Some of the missing dimensions manifest in these tables that explain a variety of educational and labor market outcomes. Economist’s “Dark Matter” or “Dark Energy.” One popular measurement system: Big Five — OCEAN Openness Conscientiousness Extraversion Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 91. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Personality Personality and Motivation: missing dimensions that predict adult performance. Some of the missing dimensions manifest in these tables that explain a variety of educational and labor market outcomes. Economist’s “Dark Matter” or “Dark Energy.” One popular measurement system: Big Five — OCEAN Openness Conscientiousness Extraversion Agreeableness Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 92. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Personality Personality and Motivation: missing dimensions that predict adult performance. Some of the missing dimensions manifest in these tables that explain a variety of educational and labor market outcomes. Economist’s “Dark Matter” or “Dark Energy.” One popular measurement system: Big Five — OCEAN Openness Conscientiousness Extraversion Agreeableness Neuroticism Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 93. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Table 3: The Big Five Domains and Their Facets Big Five Personality American Psychology Facets (and correlated Related Traits Childhood Factor Association Dictionary trait adjective) Temperament Traits description Openness to “the tendency to be open Fantasy (imaginative) Sensory sensitivity Experience to new aesthetic, Aesthetic (artistic) Pleasure in low- cultural, or intellectual Feelings (excitable) intensity activities experiences” Actions (wide interests) Curiosity Ideas (curious) — Values (unconventional) Conscientiousness “the tendency to be Competence (efficient) Grit Attention/(lack of) organized, responsible, Order (organized) Perseverance distractibility and hardworking” Dutifulness (not careless) Delay of gratification Effortful control Achievement striving Impulse control Impulse control/delay (ambitious) Achievement striving of gratification Self-discipline (not lazy) Ambition Persistence Deliberation (not Work ethic Activity* impulsive) OCEAN Source: Table adapted from John and Srivastava (1999). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 94. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Table 3: The Big Five Domains and Their Facets Extraversion “an orientation of one’s Warmth (friendly) Surgency interests and energies Gregariousness Social dominance toward the outer world (sociable) Social vitality of people and things Assertiveness (self- Sensation seeking rather than the inner confident) Shyness* — world of subjective Activity (energetic) Activity* experience; Excitement seeking Positive emotionality characterized by (adventurous) Sociability/affiliation positive affect and Positive emotions sociability” (enthusiastic) Agreeableness “the tendency to act in a Trust (forgiving) Empathy Irritability* cooperative, unselfish Straight-forwardness (not Perspective taking Aggressiveness manner” demanding) Cooperation Willfulness Altruism (warm) Competitiveness Compliance (not stubborn) Modesty (not show-off) Tender-mindedness (sympathetic) Neuroticism/ Emotional stability is Anxiety (worrying) Internal vs. External Fearfulness/behavioral Emotional Stability “predictability and Hostility (irritable) Locus of control inhibition consistency in emotional Depression (not Core self-evaluation Shyness* reactions, with absence contented) Self-esteem Irritability* of rapid mood changes.” Self-consciousness (shy) Self-efficacy Frustration Neuroticism is “a Impulsiveness (moody) Optimism (Lack of) soothability chronic level of Vulnerability to stress Axis I Sadness emotional instability and (not self-confident) psychopathologies proneness to (mental disorders) psychological distress.” including depression and anxiety disorders OCEAN Source: Table adapted from John and Srivastava (1999). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 95. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Alternative measurement systems and their communalities Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 96. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Competing taxonomies of personality Evsenck Costa & McCrae Tellegen Zuckerman Cloninger Big Nine Big Three NEO-PRF Big Five MPQ Neuroticism Neuroticism Negative Emotionality Neuroticism-Anxiety Harm Avoidance Adjustment Anxious Anxiety Stress reaction Vulnerability Depressed Depression Guilt-feeling Low self-esteem Tense Irrational Shy Self-consciousness Alienation Moody Emotional Impulsiveness Psychotism Aggressive Hostility Aggression Aggression-Hostility Cooperativeness Agreeableness Cold Egocentric Rugged Individualism Impersonal Agreeableness Anti-social Altruism Unempathic Compliance Tough-minded Tendermindedness Straightforwardness Trust (cont.) Modesty Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 97. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Competing taxonomies of personality (cont.) Evsenck Costa & McCrae Tellegen Zuckerman Cloninger Big Nine Big Three NEO-PRF Big Five MPQ Psychotism (cont.) Conscientiousness Constraint Self-Directedness Dependability Deliberation Dutifulness Impulsive Self-discipline Control Locus of Control Order Competence Persistence Achievement Achievement striving Traditionalism Extraversion Extraversion Sensation-seeking Excitement seeking Harm avoidance Impulsive Sensation Novelty Seeking Seeking Venturesome Active Activity Activity Surgent Carefree Positive emotionality Achievement Reward Dependence Social Closeness Sociable Gregariousness Sociability Affiliation Lively Assertive Assertiveness Dominant Social Potency Potency Positive emotions Well-being Warmth Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 98. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Competing taxonomies of personality (cont.) Evsenck Costa & McCrae Tellegen Zuckerman Cloninger Big Nine Big Three NEO-PRF Big Five MPQ Openness Self-Transcendence Fantasy Aesthetics Absorption Feelings Actions Ideas Values Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 99. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Big Five is widely used. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 100. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Big Five is widely used. Criticisms of Big Five Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 101. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Big Five is widely used. Criticisms of Big Five The five-factor model is atheoretical. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 102. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Big Five is widely used. Criticisms of Big Five The five-factor model is atheoretical. The five-factor model is relatively silent on an important class of individual differences: motivation and goals. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 103. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Defining non-cognitive traits for children Childhood temperament is the term used by developmental psychologists to describe the personalities of infants and children. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 104. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Defining non-cognitive traits for children Childhood temperament is the term used by developmental psychologists to describe the personalities of infants and children. Most of the research on temperament has examined specific lower-order traits rather than broader, higher-level factors that characterize studies of adult intelligence and personality. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 105. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Validities for Personality Tests What are the validities for personality tests? Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 106. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Validities for Personality Tests What are the validities for personality tests? How correlated are scores on these tests with behaviors? Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 107. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Table 4: Validities for Personality Tests Source: Almlund et al. 2011 Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 108. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Table 4: Validities for Personality Tests Source: Almlund et al. 2011 Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 109. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References How Predictive Are These Personality Traits? What do they predict? Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 110. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References How Predictive Are These Personality Traits? What do they predict? With what strength? Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 111. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 2: Association of the Big Five and intelligence with Years of Schooling Males Emotional Stability Agreeableness Extraversion Conscientiousness Openness Fluid Intelligence Crystalized Intelligence -0.1 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 Standardized Regression Coefficient Unadjusted for Intelligence Adjusted for Intelligence Source: Almlund et al. 2011 Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 112. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 3: Correlations of The Big Five and Intelligence with High School Course Grades Source: Almlund et al. 2011 Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 113. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Duckworth, Heckman, Almlund, and Kautz 10/22/2010 126 Figure 13. Associations with Standardized Achievement Test Scores Figure 4: Associations with Standardized Achievement Test Scores Emotional Stability Agreeableness Extraversion Conscientiousness Private School Public School Openness Intelligence -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Standardized Regression Coefficient Note: The values represent standardized regression coefficients when controlling for age at IQ test, gender, and ethnicity. IQ is measured using Raven’s Progressive Matrices. Source: Duckworth (2009) Martin and colleagues were among the first to demonstrate that teacheron Soft Skillsratings Heckman Hard Evidence and parent
  • 114. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References and the authors do not clearly delineate when the measures of personality were taken. Figure 5: Associations with Job Performance Figure 14. Associations with Job Performance Emotional Stability Agreeableness Extraversion Conscientiousness Openness Intelligence 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Correlation Note. The values for personality are correlations that were corrected for sampling error, range restriction, and measurement error. Job performance was based on performance ratings, productivity data and training proficiency. The authors do report the timing of the measurements of personality relative to job performance. The value for IQ is a raw correlation. Source(s): The values reported for personality traits come from a meta-analysis conducted by Barrick and Mount [1991]. The value for IQ and job performance was reported in Schmidt and Hunter [2004]. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 115. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 6: Correlations of Mortality with Personality, IQ, and Socioeconomic Status (SES) Source: Almlund et al. 2011 Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 116. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Ever Been in Jail by Age 30, by Ability (Males) Figure 7: Ever been in jail by age 30, by ability (males)zation .15mentnce .10 Probabilityal andtiveds .05onmentveates .00ation 0 – 20 21 – 40 41 – 60 61 – 80 81 – 100 Percentilemary Cognitive Noncognitive Note: This figure plots the probability of a given behavior associated with moving up in one ability distribution for someone after integrating out the other distribution. For example, the lines with markers show the effect of increasing noncognitive ability after Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006) integrating the cognitive ability. Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 117. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Probability of Being Single With Children (Females) Figure 8: Probability of being teenage and single with children (females)zation .10ment .08nce Probability l and .06 ive s nment .04veates .02ation 0 – 20 21 – 40 41 – 60 61 – 80 81 – 100 Percentilemary Cognitive Noncognitive Note: This figure plots the probability of a given behavior associated with moving up in one ability distribution for someone after integrating out the other distribution. For example, the lines with markers show the effect of increasing noncognitive ability after Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006) integrating the cognitive ability. Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 118. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References How Predictive Are Achievement Tests Compared to Conscientiousness for Success in Post-Secondary Education? Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 119. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Table 5: The Relative Predictive Power of Conscientiousness and SAT Scores for College GPA Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 120. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References What Do Grades and Scores on Achievement Tests Measure? How are the scores on test and grades determined? Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 121. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References f c Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 122. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 9: Decomposing Achievement Tests and Grades into IQ and Personality [NLSY79] 0.60 Achievement Grades 0.50 0.48 0.43 0.40 R-Squared 0.30 0.23 0.20 0.19 0.16 0.10 0.10 0.00 AFQT Grades IQ, Rosenberg, and Rotter IQ Rosenberg and Rotter Source: Borghans, Golsteyn, Heckman et al. [2011]. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 123. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 10: Decomposing Achievement Tests and Grades into IQ and Personality [Stella Maris] Source: Borghans, Golsteyn, Heckman et al. [2011]. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 124. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References This explains in part the greater predictive power of achievement tests and grades compared to IQ in explaining real world outcomes. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 125. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Table 2: Validities in Labor Market Outcomes from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979 NLSY79 Table of Proportion of Explained Variance (tests and school performance) Source: Borghans et al. (2011) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 126. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Causal Inference Causality is essential in designing policy and interpreting evidence. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 127. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Causal Inference Causality is essential in designing policy and interpreting evidence. Correlation is not the same as causation, although a lot of public policy is based only on correlations. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 128. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Causal Inference Causality is essential in designing policy and interpreting evidence. Correlation is not the same as causation, although a lot of public policy is based only on correlations. The doctors in Russia. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 129. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Correlation vs. Causality A is correlated with B What is causal? ? A B Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 130. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Correlation vs. Causality A is correlated with B What is causal? ? A B ? B A Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 131. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Correlation vs. Causality A is correlated with B What is causal? ? A B ? B A ? A B Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 132. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Correlation vs. Causality A is correlated with B What is causal? ? A B ? B A ? A B ? A C B Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 133. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Correlation vs. Causality A is correlated with B What is causal? ? ? B A B C ? A B A ? A B ? A C B Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 134. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Correlation vs. Causality A is correlated with B What is causal? ? ? B A B C ? A B A ? B ? C A B A ? A C B Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 135. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Correlation vs. Causality A is correlated with B What is causal? ? ? B A B C ? A B A ? B ? C A B A ? A ? B C C B A Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 136. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Questions Are any of the predictive relationships between personality and cognition and outcomes causal? Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 137. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Questions Are any of the predictive relationships between personality and cognition and outcomes causal? Can we change cognition and personality and affect outcomes or are they fixed traits? Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 138. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Questions Are any of the predictive relationships between personality and cognition and outcomes causal? Can we change cognition and personality and affect outcomes or are they fixed traits? Is promoting cognition and personality a useful policy option? Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 139. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Questions Are any of the predictive relationships between personality and cognition and outcomes causal? Can we change cognition and personality and affect outcomes or are they fixed traits? Is promoting cognition and personality a useful policy option? What do we miss by ignoring soft skills? Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 140. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Difficulties in Establishing Causality Reverse causality (A ⇐⇒ B) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 141. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Difficulties in Establishing Causality Reverse causality (A ⇐⇒ B) Measured traits can be caused in part by the outcomes being studied. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 142. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References All psychological measurements are calibrated on task performances. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 143. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References All psychological measurements are calibrated on task performances. A fundamental interpretive problem lies at the heart of any psychological measurement system for any particular trait. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 144. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References All psychological measurements are calibrated on task performances. A fundamental interpretive problem lies at the heart of any psychological measurement system for any particular trait. For these traits to be accurate measures of any particular trait or set of traits, it is necessary to standardize for incentives and the effects of other traits in performing a task. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 145. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References All psychological measurements are calibrated on task performances. A fundamental interpretive problem lies at the heart of any psychological measurement system for any particular trait. For these traits to be accurate measures of any particular trait or set of traits, it is necessary to standardize for incentives and the effects of other traits in performing a task. Examples: Incentivizing IQ tests. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 146. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References All psychological measurements are calibrated on task performances. A fundamental interpretive problem lies at the heart of any psychological measurement system for any particular trait. For these traits to be accurate measures of any particular trait or set of traits, it is necessary to standardize for incentives and the effects of other traits in performing a task. Examples: Incentivizing IQ tests. Can boost IQ by 15 points by giving candies for correct answers — the Black/White gap in IQ in U.S. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 147. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Examples IQ and Achievement Test Scores Reflect Incentives and Efforts, and Capture Both Cognitive and Personality Traits Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 148. Introduction Lessons children who SES History information. Gentle (10.6 points and SD was three distinct Appendix IQ Origins Modern Stability factors: (a) References did or did not encouragement, about 9.5 in this sample) formal cognitive processes; attend nursery easier items after between scores of (b) informational school were tested Almlund, Duckworth, Heckman, and Kautz 12/31/2010 items were missed, children in the achievements which reflect Table 6: Incentives and Performance on Intelligence Tests at the beginning and so on. optimized vs the content rather than the 83 and end of the year standardconditions The formal properties of Table 5. Incentives and Performance on Intelligence Tests improved cognition, and (c) on Stanford-Binet nursery group Study Sample and Study Intelligence Test Experimental Effectscores, but only in their size of incentive Summary motivational factors which Design under either Group (in standard the standard condition. involve a wide range of optimized or deviations) personality variables. (p. 2) Edlund Between subjects standard M&M candies Experimental group “…a carefully chosen “…the significant difference [1972] study. 11 matched conditions. given for each scored 12 points higher consequence, candy,standard in improvement in given pairs of low SES right answer than control group contingent on each occurrence IQ performance found children; children during a second testing of correct the nursery and non- between responses to an IQ were about one on an alternative form of test, can result inwas nursery groups a standard deviation the Stanford Binet significantly solely to attributable higher IQ below average in (about 0.8 standard score.”(p. 319) motivational factors…” (p. IQ at baseline deviations) 10) Ayllon & Breuning Within subjects Within and Tokens given in as 6.25 points out of aby Incentives such Scores increased “…test scores often reflect of “In summary, the promise KellyZella study. 12 mentally and between subjects experimental record albums, possible17 points. Results poor academic skills, but they about 51 points on individualized incentives [1972] [1978] retarded children study of 485 condition for right Metropolitan Readiness radios (<$25) given were consistent across may also reflect lack of in contingent on an increase Sample 1 (avg IQ 46.8) special education answers the t = 4.03 for improvement in Test. Otis-Lennon, WISC- motivation to do well (asthe IQ test performance in high school exchangeable for test performance R, and Lorge-Thorndike criterion test…These results, compared with pretest students all took IQ prizes tests. obtained from both a in an performance) resulted Ayllon & Within then were tests, subjects Tokens given in t = 5.9 population typically limited in approximate 17-point Kelly study 34 urban randomly assigned experimental skills and in IQ test scores. increase ability as well as [1972] fourth graders (avg condition for right to control or from a group of normal These increases were equally Sample 2 IQ = 92.8) groups to answers incentive childrenacross subtests… The spread (Experiment II), retake tests. exchangeable for demonstrate that the use of incentive condition effects Subjects were prizes reinforcement procedures were much less pronounced Ayllon & below-average in Within subjects Six weeks of token Experimental group applied to a behaviorpretest for students having that is Kelly IQ. study of 12 reinforcement for scored 3.67 points out of tacitly regarded as “at120 and IQs between 98 and its [1972] matched pairs of good academic possible 51 points on a peak” can significantly alter did not occur for students Sample 3 mentally retarded performance post-test given under the levelpretest IQs between having of performance of children standard conditions that behavior.” (p. 483) 121 and 140.” (p. 225) Holt and Between and Exp 1-Token higher standard deviation 1.06 than at baseline; “Knowledge of results does Hobbs within subjects reinforcement for control group dropped difference between the not appear to be a sufficient Many other studies (see ADHK). [1979] study of 80 delinquent boys correct responses; 2.75 points. On a second Exp 2 – Tokens token reinforcement and incentive to significantly control groups (inferred improve test performance post-test with incentives, randomly assigned forfeited for Heckman from t control groups exp and= 3.31 for 39 Hard among below-average I.Q. Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 149. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Responsiveness to Incentives on IQ and Achievement Tests Depends on Personality Segal (2006) shows that introducing performance-based cash incentives in a low-stakes administration of a measure of IQ increases performance substantially among roughly one-third of participants. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 150. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Responsiveness to Incentives on IQ and Achievement Tests Depends on Personality Segal (2006) shows that introducing performance-based cash incentives in a low-stakes administration of a measure of IQ increases performance substantially among roughly one-third of participants. Less conscientious men are particularly affected by incentives. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 151. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Responsiveness to Incentives on IQ and Achievement Tests Depends on Personality Segal (2006) shows that introducing performance-based cash incentives in a low-stakes administration of a measure of IQ increases performance substantially among roughly one-third of participants. Less conscientious men are particularly affected by incentives. Borghans, Meijers and ter Weel (2006) show that adults spend substantially more time answering IQ questions when rewards are higher, but subjects high in emotional stability and conscientiousness are much less affected by these incentives. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 152. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Personality traits affect IQ scores indirectly through the knowledge acquired by individuals who are more open to experience, more curious and more perseverant. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 153. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Personality traits affect IQ scores indirectly through the knowledge acquired by individuals who are more open to experience, more curious and more perseverant. There is a correlation between cognitive and non-cognitive factors. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 154. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Personality traits affect IQ scores indirectly through the knowledge acquired by individuals who are more open to experience, more curious and more perseverant. There is a correlation between cognitive and non-cognitive factors. Hansen, Heckman and Mullen (2004), Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua (2006), and Urzua (2007) show how schooling and other acquired traits substantially causally affect measured cognitive and non-cognitive test scores. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 155. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Personality traits affect IQ scores indirectly through the knowledge acquired by individuals who are more open to experience, more curious and more perseverant. There is a correlation between cognitive and non-cognitive factors. Hansen, Heckman and Mullen (2004), Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua (2006), and Urzua (2007) show how schooling and other acquired traits substantially causally affect measured cognitive and non-cognitive test scores. IQ test performance reflects not only pure intelligence, but also intrinsic motivation, anxiety, knowledge, and reactions to extrinsic incentives to perform well. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 156. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References IQ (“gf”) Knowledge (“gc”) Task Performance Personality Effort Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 157. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References IQ (“gf”) Knowledge (“gc”) Task Performance Personality ? Effort Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 158. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References IQ (“gf”) Knowledge (“gc”) Task Performance Personality ? Effort ? Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 159. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Causal Evidence on the Power of Personality Present causal evidence on the power of soft skills in producing life outcomes. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 160. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Causal Evidence on the Power of Personality Present causal evidence on the power of soft skills in producing life outcomes. Evidence that soft skills can be fostered. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 161. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Causal Evidence on the Power of Personality Present causal evidence on the power of soft skills in producing life outcomes. Evidence that soft skills can be fostered. Evidence that soft skills are a mechanism of policy for reducing poverty, promoting productivity and enhancing social justice. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 162. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Causal Evidence on the Power of Personality Present causal evidence on the power of soft skills in producing life outcomes. Evidence that soft skills can be fostered. Evidence that soft skills are a mechanism of policy for reducing poverty, promoting productivity and enhancing social justice. Sources of Evidence Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 163. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Causal Evidence on the Power of Personality Present causal evidence on the power of soft skills in producing life outcomes. Evidence that soft skills can be fostered. Evidence that soft skills are a mechanism of policy for reducing poverty, promoting productivity and enhancing social justice. Sources of Evidence i The GED Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 164. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Causal Evidence on the Power of Personality Present causal evidence on the power of soft skills in producing life outcomes. Evidence that soft skills can be fostered. Evidence that soft skills are a mechanism of policy for reducing poverty, promoting productivity and enhancing social justice. Sources of Evidence i The GED ii Perry Intervention Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 165. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Causal Evidence on the Power of Personality Present causal evidence on the power of soft skills in producing life outcomes. Evidence that soft skills can be fostered. Evidence that soft skills are a mechanism of policy for reducing poverty, promoting productivity and enhancing social justice. Sources of Evidence i The GED ii Perry Intervention iii Causal Effect of Schooling on Test Scores Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 166. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References The GED as a case study of the power of soft skills and costs of neglecting them Draw in part on a forthcoming book. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 167. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References The GED as a case study of the power of soft skills and costs of neglecting them Draw in part on a forthcoming book. Studies Of T he GED T esting P rogram, University of Chicago Press, 2012. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 168. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References The GED as a case study of the power of soft skills and costs of neglecting them Draw in part on a forthcoming book. Studies Of T he GED T esting P rogram, University of Chicago Press, 2012. GED is an achievement test that secondary dropouts can take to certify that they are the equivalents of ordinary secondary school graduates. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 169. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References The GED as a case study of the power of soft skills and costs of neglecting them Draw in part on a forthcoming book. Studies Of T he GED T esting P rogram, University of Chicago Press, 2012. GED is an achievement test that secondary dropouts can take to certify that they are the equivalents of ordinary secondary school graduates. GED is a group of 5 achievement tests normed against national samples of high school graduates (70% can pass). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 170. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References The GED as a case study of the power of soft skills and costs of neglecting them Draw in part on a forthcoming book. Studies Of T he GED T esting P rogram, University of Chicago Press, 2012. GED is an achievement test that secondary dropouts can take to certify that they are the equivalents of ordinary secondary school graduates. GED is a group of 5 achievement tests normed against national samples of high school graduates (70% can pass). 14% of all secondary school certificates issued in the U.S. are given to GEDs. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 171. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Use multiple data sets on outcomes, backgrounds, and abilities for all major economic and social groups in the U.S over multiple periods. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 172. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Use multiple data sets on outcomes, backgrounds, and abilities for all major economic and social groups in the U.S over multiple periods. GEDs are as smart as secondary school graduates who do not go on to college. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 173. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Use multiple data sets on outcomes, backgrounds, and abilities for all major economic and social groups in the U.S over multiple periods. GEDs are as smart as secondary school graduates who do not go on to college. GEDs who go on to college and succeed are indistinguishable from other college graduates in terms of annual wage income (True for AA and BA students). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 174. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References However, terminal GEDs perform at a level closer to that of dropouts. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 175. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References However, terminal GEDs perform at a level closer to that of dropouts. Identical to dropouts if we control for their greater cognitive ability. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 176. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References However, terminal GEDs perform at a level closer to that of dropouts. Identical to dropouts if we control for their greater cognitive ability. We examine what essential life skills GEDs lack. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 177. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References However, terminal GEDs perform at a level closer to that of dropouts. Identical to dropouts if we control for their greater cognitive ability. We examine what essential life skills GEDs lack. Comparing GEDs to Dropouts standardizes ability (as measured by achievement tests) and demonstrates the importance of personality traits in predicting life outcomes. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 178. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 11: Cognitive ability by educational status (no college sample, all ethnic groups) Source: Heckman, Humphries, Urzua, and Veramendi (2010) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 179. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 12: Cognitive ability by educational status (no college sample, all ethnic groups) Source: Heckman, Humphries, Urzua, and Veramendi (2010) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 180. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References GEDs lack noncognitive — personality — traits measured in many ways: behaviors and personality test scores. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 181. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 13: Mean Personality Measures across Education Groups - (All Races, All Post-Secondary Education) (a) Males (b) Females .2 .2 0 0 −.8 −.6 −.4 −.2 −.8 −.6 −.4 −.2 Se Lo Lo Se Se Lo Lo Se cu cu cu cu lf− lf C lf− lf C so s so s E E on on of of ste ste fC fC c c Co Co em em ep ep on on n n t t tr tro tr tro (N (N (N (N ol ol LS LS l (N EL l (N EL (N (N Y7 Y7 S) S) LS EL LS EL 9) 9) Y S Y S 79 ) 79 ) ) ) Dropout GED 5% Sig (GED vs.HSG) Dropout GED 5% Sig (GED vs.HSG) High School S.E. 5% Sig (GED/HSG vs.Drop) High School S.E. 5% Sig (GED/HSG vs.Drop) Sources: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, National Educational Longitudinal Survey. Notes Rosenberg is a ten measure self-confidence scale administered in 1980. Rotter is a 4 (two part) measure of locus of control. Locus of control is a measure of how much control an individual believes they have over their life. The Self Concept measure included in NELS measures evaluates the respondents sense of self-worth or self-confidence. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 182. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 14: Adolescent Smoking and Drinking across Education Groups - (All Races, All Post-Secondary Education) (a) Males (b) Females .6 .6 .4 .4 .2 .2 0 0 Sm Dr Sm Dr Sm Bin Sm Dr Sm Dr Sm Bin ink in ink in ge ge ok ok ok ok ok ok kb kb sb sb es e es es e es Dr Dr y1 y1 by by y1 y1 by 8 ink by 8 ink th th 4( 4( 14 14 5( 5( 15 15 10 10 Gr Gr NL NL ( ( NL NL NL NL th th (N (N .( .( SY SY SY SY NE NE LS Gr LS Gr SY SY 97 97 79 .( 79 .( Y Y LS LS 97 97 ) ) 79 79 NE NE ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) LS LS ) ) Dropout GED 5% Sig (GED vs.HSG) Dropout GED 5% Sig (GED vs.HSG) High School S.E. 5% Sig (GED/HSG vs.Drop) High School S.E. 5% Sig (GED/HSG vs.Drop) Sources: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, National Educational Longitudinal Survey. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 183. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 15: Sex and Violent Behavior across Education Groups - (All Races, All Post-Secondary Education) (a) Males (b) Females .5 .5 .4 .4 .3 .3 .2 .2 .1 .1 0 0 Se Fig Ga Sc Se Fig Ga Sc ho ho xa xa ng ng ht ht o o by by t1 t1 by by lF lF 5( 5( 14 14 igh igh 14 14 NL NL (N (N t8 t8 ( ( NL NL SY SY LS LS th th SY SY 79 79 Y Gr Y Gr 97 97 97 97 ) ) .( .( ) ) ) NE ) NE LS LS ) ) Dropout GED 5% Sig (GED vs.HSG) Dropout GED 5% Sig (GED vs.HSG) High School S.E. 5% Sig (GED/HSG vs.Drop) High School S.E. 5% Sig (GED/HSG vs.Drop) Sources: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, National Educational Longitudinal Survey. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 184. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 16: Adolescent Criminal Behavior across Education Groups - (All Races, All Post-Secondary Education) (a) Males (b) Females .8 .8 .6 .6 .4 .4 .2 .2 0 0 Min Ma Vio Ar Pr Th Min Ma Vio Ar Pr Th res op res op eft eft jor jor len len or or ted Cr ted Cr b b Cr Cr tC Cr Cr tC y1 y1 im im im im im im rim by rim by 4( 4( eb eb e( e( e( e( 14 14 e( e( NL NL y1 y1 NL NL NL NL NL NL ( ( SY SY NL NL 4( 4( SY SY SY SY SY SY 97 97 SY NL SY NL 79 79 79 79 79 79 ) ) SY SY 97 97 ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) 97 97 ) ) Dropout GED 5% Sig (GED vs.HSG) Dropout GED 5% Sig (GED vs.HSG) High School S.E. 5% Sig (GED/HSG vs.Drop) High School S.E. 5% Sig (GED/HSG vs.Drop) Sources: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997. Notes: Minor crime includes vandalism, shoplifting, petty theft, fraud, holding or selling stolen goods. Major crime includes auto theft, breaking/entering private property, grand theft. Violent crime includes fighting, assault, aggravated assault. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 185. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 17: Adolescent GPA across Education Groups - (All Races, All Post-Secondary Education ) (a) Males (b) Females 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 9th 9th 9th 9th Gr Gr Gr Gr .G .C .G .C red red PA PA its its Dropout GED 5% Sig (GED vs.HSG) Dropout GED 5% Sig (GED vs.HSG) High School S.E. 5% Sig (GED/HSG vs.Drop) High School S.E. 5% Sig (GED/HSG vs.Drop) Sources: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 186. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 18: Highest Grade Completed in High School across Education Groups - (All Races, All Post-Secondary Education) (a) Males (b) Females 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 HG HG LG HG HG LG Eh Eh C C C C hig hig hig hig igh igh h hs h hs s s sc sc ch ch ch ch ho ho o o oo oo ol ol ol ol l (N l (N (N (N (N (N EL EL LS LS LS LS S) S) Y Y Y Y 79 97 79 97 ) ) ) ) Dropout GED 5% Sig (GED vs.HSG) Dropout GED 5% Sig (GED vs.HSG) High School S.E. 5% Sig (GED/HSG vs.Drop) High School S.E. 5% Sig (GED/HSG vs.Drop) Sources: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, National Educational Longitudinal Survey. Notes: HGC high school is the total number of years of school attended through high school. It does not include any post-secondary education. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 187. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 19: Distribution of Non-Cognitive Skills by Education Group Source: Reproduced from Heckman et al. (2011). National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1979. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 188. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Gaps in achievement and personality deficits emerge early. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 189. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 20: PIAT Scores across Ages and Education Groups across Education Groups - (All Races, All Post-Secondary Education) (a) Males (b) Females .2 .2 0 0 −.2 −.2 −.4 −.4 −.6 −.6 −.8 −.8 Ag Ag Ag Ag Ag Ag Ag Ag Ag Ag e6 e8 e1 e1 e1 e6 e8 e1 e1 e1 0P 2P 4P 0P 2P 4P PIA PIA PIA PIA IAT IAT IAT IAT IAT IAT T T T T Dropout GED 5% Sig (GED vs.HSG) Dropout GED 5% Sig (GED vs.HSG) High School S.E. 5% Sig (GED/HSG vs.Drop) High School S.E. 5% Sig (GED/HSG vs.Drop) Source: Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Notes: The Peabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT) is a widely childhood achievement test. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 190. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 21: Behavioral Problems Index (BPI) across Education Groups - (All Races , All Post-Secondary Education ) (a) Males (b) Females 1 1 .5 .5 0 0 −.5 −.5 Ag Ag Ag Ag Ag Ag Ag Ag Ag Ag e6 e8 e1 e1 e1 e6 e8 e1 e1 e1 0 2 4 0 2 4 Dropout GED 5% Sig (GED vs.HSG) Dropout GED 5% Sig (GED vs.HSG) High School S.E. 5% Sig (GED/HSG vs.Drop) High School S.E. 5% Sig (GED/HSG vs.Drop) Sources: Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Notes: The Behavioral Problems Index (BPI) is based on a 28 question survey given to parents about their child. The BPI is normalized to have mean 0 and variance 1. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 191. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References The early childhood environments of both dropouts and GEDs are worse than those of H.S. Grads. (Moon, 2011; Cunha et al., 2010) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 192. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 22: Broken Home Rates across Education Groups - (All Races, All Post-Secondary Education) (a) Males (b) Females .6 .6 .4 .4 .2 .2 0 0 Br Br Br Br Br Br Br Br ok ok ok ok ok ok ok ok en en e en en en e en na na at at 8th at at 8th t1 t1 14 2( 14 2( 2( Gr 2( Gr NL NL ( ( . (N . (N NL NL NL NL SY SY SY S SY S EL EL Y9 Y9 97 97 79 79 S) S) ) 7) ) 7) ) ) Dropout GED 5% Sig (GED vs.HSG) Dropout GED 5% Sig (GED vs.HSG) High School S.E. 5% Sig (GED/HSG vs.Drop) High School S.E. 5% Sig (GED/HSG vs.Drop) Sources: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, National Educational Longitudinal Survey. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 193. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 23: Childhood Investment across Education Groups - (All Races, All Post-Secondary Education) (a) Males (b) Females .2 .2 0 0 −.2 −.2 −.4 −.4 −.6 −.6 −.8 −.8 Ag Ag Ag Ag Ag Ag Ag Ag Ag Ag Ag Ag e1 e4 e1 e4 e1 e4 e1 e4 e1 e4 e1 e4 −3 −7 −3 −7 −3 −7 −3 −7 −3 −7 −3 −7 Ma Ma Co Co E Em Ma Ma Co Co E Em mo mo gn gn gn gn ter ter ter ter oti oti tio tio itiv it itiv it ial ial on ial ial on ive ive na na e e al al l l Dropout GED 5% Sig (GED vs.HSG) Dropout GED 5% Sig (GED vs.HSG) High School S.E. 5% Sig (GED/HSG vs.Drop) High School S.E. 5% Sig (GED/HSG vs.Drop) Sources: Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Variable Definitions: Material resources includes the child’s access to books, toys, CD or tape player, musical instruments, and whether the home contains books or magazines. Cognitive stimulation investments include how often the children are read to, taught lessons, brought to cultural events, and characteristics of the home environment. Emotional support investments include parents verbal and physical interactions with child, disciplinary behavior, and responsibility of child for household chores. Moon (2010) provides a detailed description of these measures. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 194. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Traits Predict Many Outcomes These traits are highly predictive of who graduates from secondary school and who does not. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 195. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Traits Predict Many Outcomes These traits are highly predictive of who graduates from secondary school and who does not. Noncognitive traits do not predict GED certification. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 196. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 24: Probability of Graduating from Secondary School (by cognitive and non-cognitive skill decile) Source: Reproduced from Heckman et al. (2011). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 197. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 25: Probability of GED Certification (conditional on dropping out, by cognitive and non-cognitive decile) Source: Reproduced from Heckman et al. (2011). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 198. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References GED certificate holders attempt postsecondary education. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 199. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References GED certificate holders attempt postsecondary education. Few succeed. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 200. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References GED certificate holders attempt postsecondary education. Few succeed. This is a recurrent pattern. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 201. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References GED certificate holders attempt postsecondary education. Few succeed. This is a recurrent pattern. GEDs tend to drop out of everything they start (school, marriage, jobs, military). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 202. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 26: Final Educational Attainment by High School Exit Status Males 50% 45% 40% 35% 33.3% 32.9% 32.3% ent 30% Perce 25% 20% 13.9% 15% 9.0% 10% 7.7% 6.4% 4.3% 4 3% 4.7% 5% 2.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0% Dropout GED High School Graduate Some Post Secondary Education Certificate AA BA MA Source: National Educational Longitudinal Survey 1988. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 203. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 27: Final Educational Attainment by High School Exit Status Females 50% 45% 40% 36.1% 35.6% 35% 29.0% Percent 30% 25% 20% 14.9% 15% 10.4% 10% 8.8% 8.4% 6.5% 6 5% 4.5% 5% 3.6% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% Dropout GED High School Graduate Some Post Secondary Education Certificate AA BA MA Source: National Educational Longitudinal Survey 1988. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 204. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References If a GED gets a BA or a MA, he/she earns at that level. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 205. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References If a GED gets a BA or a MA, he/she earns at that level. However, there is usually delay and this has substantial costs. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 206. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References If a GED gets a BA or a MA, he/she earns at that level. However, there is usually delay and this has substantial costs. The present value of earnings for such people is substantially (20–30%) lower than if they had not dropped out of school. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 207. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References But GEDs who do not complete a further certificate or degree earn at the rate of dropouts for people with comparable schooling attained (at the dropout stage) and ability. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 208. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References But GEDs who do not complete a further certificate or degree earn at the rate of dropouts for people with comparable schooling attained (at the dropout stage) and ability. No benefit for males. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 209. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References But GEDs who do not complete a further certificate or degree earn at the rate of dropouts for people with comparable schooling attained (at the dropout stage) and ability. No benefit for males. This is robust across a variety of specifications. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 210. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 28: Annual Income Differences - By Age - NLSY79 - (Males, All Races) (a) All Post-Secondary Education (b) No Post-Secondary Education 30000 30000 20000 20000 10000 10000 0 0 Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Age 20 to 24 Age 25 to 29 Age 30 to 34 Age 35 to 39 Age 20 to 24 Age 25 to 29 Age 30 to 34 Age 35 to 39 GED p<0.05(GED vs.HSG) S.E. GED p<0.05(GED vs.HSG) S.E. High School p<0.05(GED/HSG vs.Dropout) High School p<0.05(GED/HSG vs.Dropout) Source: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Note: Estimates for hours worked and hourly wages exclude non-workers. Controls: “Raw” – age and region or state of residence; “Abil” – AFQT adjusted for schooling at time of test; “BG” – mother’s highest grade completed, urban status at age 14, family income in 1979, broken home status in 1979, south at age 14 and AFQT. Regressions exclude those reporting earning more than $300,000 or working more than 4,000 hours. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 211. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 29: Hourly Wage Differences - By Age - NLSY79 - (Males, All Races) (a) All Post-Secondary Education (b) No Post-Secondary Education 10 10 5 5 0 0 Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Age 20 to 24 Age 25 to 29 Age 30 to 34 Age 35 to 39 Age 20 to 24 Age 25 to 29 Age 30 to 34 Age 35 to 39 GED p<0.05(GED vs.HSG) S.E. GED p<0.05(GED vs.HSG) S.E. High School p<0.05(GED/HSG vs.Dropout) High School p<0.05(GED/HSG vs.Dropout) Source: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Note: Estimates for hours worked and hourly wages exclude non-workers. Controls: “Raw” – age and region or state of residence; “Abil” – AFQT adjusted for schooling at time of test; “BG” – mother’s highest grade completed, urban status at age 14, family income in 1979, broken home status in 1979, south at age 14 and AFQT. Regressions exclude those reporting earning more than $300,000 or working more than 4,000 hours. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 212. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 30: Employment Differences - By Age - NLSY79 - (Males, All Races) (a) All Post-Secondary Education (b) No Post-Secondary Education .15 .15 .1 .1 .05 .05 0 0 −.05 −.05 Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Age 20 to 24 Age 25 to 29 Age 30 to 34 Age 35 to 39 Age 20 to 24 Age 25 to 29 Age 30 to 34 Age 35 to 39 GED p<0.05(GED vs.HSG) S.E. GED p<0.05(GED vs.HSG) S.E. High School p<0.05(GED/HSG vs.Dropout) High School p<0.05(GED/HSG vs.Dropout) Source: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Note: Estimates for hours worked and hourly wages exclude non-workers. Controls: “Raw” – age and region or state of residence; “Abil” – AFQT adjusted for schooling at time of test; “BG” – mother’s highest grade completed, urban status at age 14, family income in 1979, broken home status in 1979, south at age 14 and AFQT. Regressions exclude those reporting earning more than $300,000 or working more than 4,000 hours. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 213. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 31: Hours Worked Differences - By Age - NLSY79 - (Males, All Races) (a) All Post-Secondary Education (b) No Post-Secondary Education 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 −100 −100 −200 −200 Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Age 20 to 24 Age 25 to 29 Age 30 to 34 Age 35 to 39 Age 20 to 24 Age 25 to 29 Age 30 to 34 Age 35 to 39 GED p<0.05(GED vs.HSG) S.E. GED p<0.05(GED vs.HSG) S.E. High School p<0.05(GED/HSG vs.Dropout) High School p<0.05(GED/HSG vs.Dropout) Source: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Note: Estimates for hours worked and hourly wages exclude non-workers. Controls: “Raw” – age and region or state of residence; “Abil” – AFQT adjusted for schooling at time of test; “BG” – mother’s highest grade completed, urban status at age 14, family income in 1979, broken home status in 1979, south at age 14 and AFQT. Regressions exclude those reporting earning more than $300,000 or working more than 4,000 hours. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 214. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 32: Distribution of the Effect of the GED Certificate and High School Graduation on Annual Income Across Models (Males) (a) GED Recipients vs. High (b) High School Graduates vs. School Dropouts (Males) High School Dropouts Sources: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Notes: This graph plots the estimated coefficients from a series of linear regressions. All models control for region, age, year, and AFQT score. The models differ in other controls and sub-populations of the data. The set of models includes all combinations of mother’s highest grade completed, urban residence at age 14, family income, lives in the south at age 14, smoked at 15, has had sex by 15, has committed a major crime, and 9th grade GPA. The sub-populations are all combinations of race, post-secondary education (everyone, has some post-secondary education, no post-secondary education), and age (measured in 5-year categories from 20 to 39) for males and females. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 215. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 33: Distribution of p-values from Tests Comparing Annual Income of GED Recipients and High School Graduates to High School Dropouts (Males) (a) GED Recipients vs. High (b) High School Graduates School Dropouts (Males) vs. High School Dropouts (Males) Sources: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Notes: This graph plots the estimated coefficients from a series of linear regressions. All models control for region, age, year, and AFQT score. The models differ in other controls and sub-populations of the data. The set of models includes all combinations of mother’s highest grade completed, urban residence at age 14, family income, lives in the south at age 14, smoked at 15, has had sex by 15, has committed a major crime, and 9th grade GPA. The sub-populations are all combinations of race, post-secondary education (everyone, has some post-secondary education, no post-secondary education), and age (measured in 5-year categories from 20 to 39) for males and females. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 216. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 33: Distribution of p-values from Tests Comparing Annual Income of GED Recipients and High School Graduates to High School Dropouts (Males) (c) GED Recipients vs. High School Graduates (Males) Sources: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Notes: This graph plots the estimated coefficients from a series of linear regressions. All models control for region, age, year, and AFQT score. The models differ in other controls and sub-populations of the data. The set of models includes all combinations of mother’s highest grade completed, urban residence at age 14, family income, lives in the south at age 14, smoked at 15, has had sex by 15, has committed a major crime, and 9th grade GPA. The sub-populations are all combinations of race, post-secondary education (everyone, has some post-secondary education, no post-secondary education), and age (measured in 5-year categories from 20 to 39) for males and females. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 217. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Women The early literature focused on results for males. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 218. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Women The early literature focused on results for males. Simplifies the analysis: avoids statistical problems associated with selection into the labor force as an empirical issue. (Many women not working, and wages are missing for them.) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 219. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Women The early literature focused on results for males. Simplifies the analysis: avoids statistical problems associated with selection into the labor force as an empirical issue. (Many women not working, and wages are missing for them.) But misses an important empirical phenomenon. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 220. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Women The early literature focused on results for males. Simplifies the analysis: avoids statistical problems associated with selection into the labor force as an empirical issue. (Many women not working, and wages are missing for them.) But misses an important empirical phenomenon. There are GED effects for certain groups of females. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 221. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Women The early literature focused on results for males. Simplifies the analysis: avoids statistical problems associated with selection into the labor force as an empirical issue. (Many women not working, and wages are missing for them.) But misses an important empirical phenomenon. There are GED effects for certain groups of females. But only for employment and earnings, not hourly wage rates, or for hours of work of the employed. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 222. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 34: Distribution of the Effect of the GED Certificate and High School Graduation on Annual Income Across Models (Females) (a) GED Recipients vs. High (b) High School Graduates vs. School Dropouts (Females) High School Dropouts Sources: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Notes: This graph plots the estimated coefficients from a series of linear regressions. All models control for region, age, year, and AFQT score. The models differ in other controls and sub-populations of the data. The set of models includes all combinations of mother’s highest grade completed, urban residence at age 14, family income, lives in the south at age 14, smoked at 15, has had sex by 15, has committed a major crime, and 9th grade GPA. The sub-populations are all combinations of race, post-secondary education (everyone, has some post-secondary education, no post-secondary education), and age (measured in 5-year categories from 20 to 39) for males and females. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 223. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 35: Distribution of p-values from Tests Comparing Annual Income of GED Recipients and High School Graduates to High School Dropouts (Females) (a) GED Recipients vs. High (b) High School Graduates vs. School Dropouts (Females) High School Dropouts (Fe- males) Sources: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Notes: This graph plots the estimated coefficients from a series of linear regressions. All models control for region, age, year, and AFQT score. The models differ in other controls and sub-populations of the data. The set of models includes all combinations of mother’s highest grade completed, urban residence at age 14, family income, lives in the south at age 14, smoked at 15, has had sex by 15, has committed a major crime, and 9th grade GPA. The sub-populations are all combinations of race, post-secondary education (everyone, has some post-secondary education, no post-secondary education), and age (measured in 5-year categories from 20 to 39) for males and females. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 224. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 35: Distribution of p-values from Tests Comparing Annual Income of GED Recipients and High School Graduates to High School Dropouts (Females) (c) GED Recipients vs. High School Graduates (Females) Sources: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Notes: This graph plots the estimated coefficients from a series of linear regressions. All models control for region, age, year, and AFQT score. The models differ in other controls and sub-populations of the data. The set of models includes all combinations of mother’s highest grade completed, urban residence at age 14, family income, lives in the south at age 14, smoked at 15, has had sex by 15, has committed a major crime, and 9th grade GPA. The sub-populations are all combinations of race, post-secondary education (everyone, has some post-secondary education, no post-secondary education), and age (measured in 5-year categories from 20 to 39) for males and females. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 225. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Why Do Some Women Benefit? Two groups of women benefit. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 226. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Why Do Some Women Benefit? Two groups of women benefit. Bright girls who drop out of school early (pregnancy) but were successful in school compared to other dropouts—they GED certify late after their children enroll in primary school. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 227. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Why Do Some Women Benefit? Two groups of women benefit. Bright girls who drop out of school early (pregnancy) but were successful in school compared to other dropouts—they GED certify late after their children enroll in primary school. They work hard, do not invest much on the job, have little wage growth. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 228. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Why Do Some Women Benefit? Two groups of women benefit. Bright girls who drop out of school early (pregnancy) but were successful in school compared to other dropouts—they GED certify late after their children enroll in primary school. They work hard, do not invest much on the job, have little wage growth. A second group is bright girls who were screw-ups in high school, dropped out and go to and graduate from college. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 229. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References This evidence points to change—either in preferences and/or constraints that cause some to turn around. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 230. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References This evidence points to change—either in preferences and/or constraints that cause some to turn around. “Desistance” in the criminology literature. (e.g., Sampson and Laub) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 231. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References This evidence points to change—either in preferences and/or constraints that cause some to turn around. “Desistance” in the criminology literature. (e.g., Sampson and Laub) The females have better non-cognitive traits than males and sort on those traits. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 232. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 36: Average Occupational Factor Scores by Final Education - Males 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 08 -1 Dropout GED High School Some College AA BA Graduate Cognitive Traits Social Traits Physical Traits Source: The American Community Survey 2009 and O-Net. Notes: All educational categories are final education at time of interview. Each factor is based on the following O-Net occupational importance scores: Cognitive - active learning, analytical thinking, complex problem solving, critical thinking, deductive reasoning, inductive reasoning, interpretation of meaning, math reasoning, mathematics, processing information, reading comprehension, creative thinking, updating knowledge and visualization. Social - communicate to outside organizations, concern for others, customer or personal service, establish relationships, leadership, oral expression, persuasion, social perceptiveness, speaking, writing, written expression, active listening, and cooperation. Physical Traits - arm and hand steadiness, control and precision, coordination, depth perception, explosive strength, finger dexterity, gross body coordination, gross body equilibrium, manual dexterity, multi-limb coordination, reaction time, spatial orientation, stamina, static strength, stress tolerance, trunk strength, and wrist and finger speed. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 233. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 37: Average Occupational Factor Scores by Final Education - Females 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 1 -1 -1.2 Dropout GED High School Some College AA BA Graduate Cognitive Traits Social Traits Physical Traits Source: The American Community Survey 2009 and O-Net. Notes: All educational categories are final education at time of interview. Each factor is based on the following O-Net occupational importance scores: Cognitive - active learning, analytical thinking, complex problem solving, critical thinking, deductive reasoning, inductive reasoning, interpretation of meaning, math reasoning, mathematics, processing information, reading comprehension, creative thinking, updating knowledge and visualization. Social - communicate to outside organizations, concern for others, customer or personal service, establish relationships, leadership, oral expression, persuasion, social perceptiveness, speaking, writing, written expression, active listening, and cooperation. Physical Traits - arm and hand steadiness, control and precision, coordination, depth perception, explosive strength, finger dexterity, gross body coordination, gross body equilibrium, manual dexterity, multi-limb coordination, reaction time, spatial orientation, stamina, static strength, stress tolerance, trunk strength, and wrist and finger speed. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 234. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References We have no direct measures of personality post-pregnancy, but we have evidence on their behaviors. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 235. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References We have no direct measures of personality post-pregnancy, but we have evidence on their behaviors. They are persistent in the workplace after they re-enter. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 236. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Longitudinal analysis supports the cross section analysis. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 237. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Longitudinal analysis supports the cross section analysis. Using a variety of procedures, employment gains for women. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 238. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Longitudinal analysis supports the cross section analysis. Using a variety of procedures, employment gains for women. No hourly wage gains — no evidence of investment. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 239. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Can People Change? Stability of Traits Are traits stable? Can people change? Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 240. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Can People Change? Stability of Traits Are traits stable? Can people change? The evidence for women suggests this might be a possibility. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 241. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Can People Change? Stability of Traits Are traits stable? Can people change? The evidence for women suggests this might be a possibility. But as a group, post-GED turnover behavior is quite stable. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 242. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Can People Change? Stability of Traits Are traits stable? Can people change? The evidence for women suggests this might be a possibility. But as a group, post-GED turnover behavior is quite stable. High quit rates for all who start (school; marriage; job; military). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 243. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 38: Probability of Leaving a Given State Within Five Years Source: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth of 1979 (NLSY79) nationally-representative cross-sectional subsample and minority oversamples. Notes: The ”Loses Employment” and ”Becomes Divorced” are conditional on being in an employed or married state. Individuals who have ever been jailed are excluded from the calculation. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 244. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 39: Probability of Leaving a Given State Within Five Years Source: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth of 1979 (NLSY79) nationally-representative cross-sectional subsample and minority oversamples. Notes: The ”Loses Employment” and ”Becomes Divorced” are conditional on being in an employed or married state. Individuals who have ever been jailed are excluded from the calculation. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 245. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Are Personality Traits Ephemeral? Claim: People adapt fully to situations. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 246. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Are Personality Traits Ephemeral? Claim: People adapt fully to situations. No such thing as a stable trait. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 247. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Situational Specificity Hypothesis The modern origins of the situational specificity hypothe- sis is based on the work of the social psychologist Walter Mischel: Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 248. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Situational Specificity Hypothesis The modern origins of the situational specificity hypothe- sis is based on the work of the social psychologist Walter Mischel: “. . . with the possible exception of intelligence, highly generalized behavioral consistencies have not been demonstrated, and the concept of personality traits as broad dispositions is thus untenable” -Mischel (1968, p. 146) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 249. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Many behavioral economists hold a similar view and appeal to Mischel as a guiding influence. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 250. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Many behavioral economists hold a similar view and appeal to Mischel as a guiding influence. “The great contribution to psychology by Walter Mischel [. . . ] is to show that there is no such thing as a stable personality trait.” -Thaler (2008) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 251. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References The stability of traits found for GEDs challenges the situational specificity hypothesis current in behavioral economics. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 252. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References The stability of traits found for GEDs challenges the situational specificity hypothesis current in behavioral economics. The evidence from the GED and much other evidence speaks strongly against the claims of Mischel and the behavioral economists. (See Almlund et al., 2011.) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 253. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References The stability of traits found for GEDs challenges the situational specificity hypothesis current in behavioral economics. The evidence from the GED and much other evidence speaks strongly against the claims of Mischel and the behavioral economists. (See Almlund et al., 2011.) There is irony in Mischel’s claim for he is most famous for his research on the marshmallow test. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 254. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References The stability of traits found for GEDs challenges the situational specificity hypothesis current in behavioral economics. The evidence from the GED and much other evidence speaks strongly against the claims of Mischel and the behavioral economists. (See Almlund et al., 2011.) There is irony in Mischel’s claim for he is most famous for his research on the marshmallow test. His work shows stability of traits over 20 years. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 255. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Stability and Change in Personality Traits and Preferences Traits change over the life cycle. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 256. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 40: Cumulative Mean-Level Changes in Personality Across the Life Cycle Note: Social vitality and social dominance are aspects of Big Five Extraversion. Cumulative d values represent total lifetime change in units of standard deviations (“effect sizes”). Source: Figure taken from Roberts, Walton and Viechtbauer [2006] and Roberts and Mroczek [2008]. Reprinted with permission of the authors. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 257. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 41: Cumulative Mean-Level Changes in Personality Across the Life Cycle Note: Social vitality and social dominance are aspects of Big Five Extraversion. Cumulative d values represent total lifetime change in units of standard deviations (“effect sizes”). Source: Figure taken from Roberts, Walton and Viechtbauer [2006] and Roberts and Mroczek [2008]. Reprinted with permission of the authors. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 258. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 41: Cumulative Mean-Level Changes in Personality Across the Life Cycle Note: Social vitality and social dominance are aspects of Big Five Extraversion. Cumulative d values represent total lifetime change in units of standard deviations (“effect sizes”). Source: Figure taken from Roberts, Walton and Viechtbauer [2006] and Roberts and Mroczek [2008]. Reprinted with permission of the authors. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 259. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 41: Cumulative Mean-Level Changes in Personality Across the Life Cycle Note: Social vitality and social dominance are aspects of Big Five Extraversion. Cumulative d values represent total lifetime change in units of standard deviations (“effect sizes”). Source: Figure taken from Roberts, Walton and Viechtbauer [2006] and Roberts and Mroczek [2008]. Reprinted with permission of the authors. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 260. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 41: Cumulative Mean-Level Changes in Personality Across the Life Cycle Note: Social vitality and social dominance are aspects of Big Five Extraversion. Cumulative d values represent total lifetime change in units of standard deviations (“effect sizes”). Source: Figure taken from Roberts, Walton and Viechtbauer [2006] and Roberts and Mroczek [2008]. Reprinted with permission of the authors. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 261. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 42: Longitudinal Analysis of Cognitive Skills Notes: T-scores on the y-axis are standardized scores with a mean of 50 and a standard deviation of ten. Source: Figures taken from Schaie [1994]. Used with permission of the publisher. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 262. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Three Processes of Development Discussed in the Literature on Personality and Cognition Ontogeny (programmed developmental processes common to all persons) and sociogeny (shared socialization processes). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 263. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Three Processes of Development Discussed in the Literature on Personality and Cognition Ontogeny (programmed developmental processes common to all persons) and sociogeny (shared socialization processes). Personality changes through external forces above and beyond common ontogenic and sociogenic processes that operate through alterations in normal biology, such as brain lesions and chemical interventions. (Phineas Gage is the most celebrated example.) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 264. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Three Processes of Development Discussed in the Literature on Personality and Cognition Ontogeny (programmed developmental processes common to all persons) and sociogeny (shared socialization processes). Personality changes through external forces above and beyond common ontogenic and sociogenic processes that operate through alterations in normal biology, such as brain lesions and chemical interventions. (Phineas Gage is the most celebrated example.) Investment: educational interventions and parental investment can affect personality throughout the lifecycle. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 265. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Ontogenic Processes Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 266. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 43: Proportion of Individuals in Each Age Group Scoring at or Above the Mean for 26- to 30-Year-Olds on Indices ofPersonality Psychology and Intellectual and Psychosocial Maturity. % scoring at mean adult level 55 Intellectual ability Psychosocial maturity 45 35 25 15 5 10 − 11 12 − 13 14 − 15 16 − 17 18 − 21 22 − 25 26 − 30 Age Source: From Steinberg, Cauffman, Woolard et al. (2009), submitted for publication.27 Proportion of Individuals in Each Age Group Scoring at or Above the Mean for Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 267. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References These developmental processes suggest that giving secondary school students the option to drop out and take a GED will lead to decisions they may later regret. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 268. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Investment Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 269. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Schooling boosts cognitive and noncognitive traits. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 270. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Schooling boosts cognitive and noncognitive traits. The effect is causal. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 271. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Schooling boosts cognitive and noncognitive traits. The effect is causal. This is in agreement with common sense and all of the claims by leading educators over the years. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 272. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 44: Causal Effect of Schooling on Measures on Cognition (from ASVAB) Source: Heckman et al. (2006). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 273. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 45: Causal Effect of Schooling on Measures on Cognition (from ASVAB) Source: Heckman et al. (2006). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 274. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 46: Causal Effect of Schooling on Two Measures of Socioemotional Skills Source: Heckman et al. (2006). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 275. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 47: Causal Effect of Schooling on Two Measures of Socioemotional Skills Source: Heckman et al. (2006). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 276. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Additional Causal Evidence on the Power of Noncognitive Traits and Evidence that They Can Be Boosted by Investment Perry Preschool Study Early childhood intervention Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 277. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Additional Causal Evidence on the Power of Noncognitive Traits and Evidence that They Can Be Boosted by Investment Perry Preschool Study Early childhood intervention Perry had lasting effects on life outcomes for both boys and girls. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 278. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Additional Causal Evidence on the Power of Noncognitive Traits and Evidence that They Can Be Boosted by Investment Perry Preschool Study Early childhood intervention Perry had lasting effects on life outcomes for both boys and girls. With a 7–10% annual rate of return for both (Heckman et al., 2010) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 279. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Additional Causal Evidence on the Power of Noncognitive Traits and Evidence that They Can Be Boosted by Investment Perry Preschool Study Early childhood intervention Perry had lasting effects on life outcomes for both boys and girls. With a 7–10% annual rate of return for both (Heckman et al., 2010) Did not boost IQ Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 280. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 48: Cognitive Evolution Through Time, Perry Males: Male Cognitive Dynamics Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 281. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Boosted Achievement Test Scores Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 282. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 49: Perry Age 14 Total CAT Scores, by Treatment Group CAT = California Achievement Test Treatment: N = 49; Control: N = 46 Statistically Significant Effect for Males and Females (p-values 0.009, 0.021 respectively) Source: Heckman, Malofeeva, Pinto, and Savelyev (2008). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 283. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References But we have already seen that a substantial component of the variability in achievement test scores is due to variability in personality traits. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 284. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References But we have already seen that a substantial component of the variability in achievement test scores is due to variability in personality traits. Perry Boosted Measured Noncognitive Traits Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 285. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 50: Personal Behavior Index, by Treatment Group Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 286. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 51: Socio-Emotional Index by Treatment Group Control Treatment Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 287. Introduction Figure 1: Decompositions of Treatment Effects, Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Males Figure 52: Decomposition of Treatment Effectsn CAT total*, age 14(+) Employed, age 19 (+) Monthly Income, age 27 (+) No tobacco use, age 27 (+)d # of adult arrests, age 27 (-) Jobless for more than 2 years, age 40 (-) Ever on welfare (-)ent Total charges of viol.crimes with victim costs, age 40, (-) Total charges of all crimes, age 40 (-) Total # of lifetime arrests, age 40 (-)n Total # of adult arrests, age 40 (-) Total # of misdemeanor arrests, age 40 (-) Total charges of all crimes with victim costs, age 40 (-) Any charges of a crime with victim cost, age 40 (-) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100% Cognitive Factors Socio-Emotional State Personal Behavior Other Factors Source: Heckman, Malofeeva, et al. (2008, revised 2011). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 288. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References The Dynamics of Life Cycle Investment Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 289. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Gaps in cognitive and noncognitive skills open up early across social and economic groups. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 290. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Gaps in cognitive and noncognitive skills open up early across social and economic groups. For both cognitive and socioemotional traits, ability gaps across socioeconomic groups open up at early ages and persist. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 291. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 53: Trend in mean cognitive score by maternal education 1 Mean cognitive score .5 0 3 5 8 18 Age (years) College grad Each score standardized within observed sample. Using all observations and assuming data missing at random. Source: Brooks-Gunn et al. (2006). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 292. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 53: Trend in mean cognitive score by maternal education 1 Mean cognitive score .5 0 3 5 8 18 Age (years) College grad Some college Each score standardized within observed sample. Using all observations and assuming data missing at random. Source: Brooks-Gunn et al. (2006). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 293. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 53: Trend in mean cognitive score by maternal education 1 Mean cognitive score .5 0 3 5 8 18 Age (years) College grad Some college HS Grad Each score standardized within observed sample. Using all observations and assuming data missing at random. Source: Brooks-Gunn et al. (2006). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 294. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 53: Trend in mean cognitive score by maternal education 1 Mean cognitive score .5 0 3 5 8 18 Age (years) College grad Some college HS Grad Less than HS Each score standardized within observed sample. Using all observations and assuming data missing at random. Source: Brooks-Gunn et al. (2006). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 295. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Average Percentile Rank on Anti-Social Figure 54: Average percentile rank on anti-social behavior score, by Behavior Score, by Income Quartile income quartile (The higher the score, the worse are behavioral problems)ation 55ent 50 45 Score Percentilece 40 andve 35 30nmente 25tes 20tion 4 Yrs 6 Yrs 8 Yrs 10 Yrs 12 Yrs Ageary Lowest Income Quartile Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 296. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Average Percentile Rank on Anti-Social Figure 54: Average percentile rank on anti-social behavior score, by Behavior Score, by Income Quartile income quartile (The higher the score, the worse are behavioral problems)ation 55ent 50 45 Score Percentilece 40 andve 35 30nmente 25tes 20tion 4 Yrs 6 Yrs 8 Yrs 10 Yrs 12 Yrs Ageary Lowest Income Quartile Second Income Quartile Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 297. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Average Percentile Rank on Anti-Social Figure 54: Average percentile rank on anti-social behavior score, by Behavior Score, by Income Quartile income quartile (The higher the score, the worse are behavioral problems)ation 55ent 50 45 Score Percentilece 40 andve 35 30nmente 25tes 20tion 4 Yrs 6 Yrs 8 Yrs 10 Yrs 12 Yrs Ageary Lowest Income Quartile Second Income Quartile Third Income Quartile Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 298. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Average Percentile Rank on Anti-Social Figure 54: Average percentile rank on anti-social behavior score, by Behavior Score, by Income Quartile income quartile (The higher the score, the worse are behavioral problems)ation 55ent 50 45 Score Percentilece 40 andve 35 30nmente 25tes 20tion 4 Yrs 6 Yrs 8 Yrs 10 Yrs 12 Yrs Ageary Lowest Income Quartile Second Income Quartile Third Income Quartile Highest Income Quartile Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 299. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References The early origins of gaps in cognitive and noncognitive skills may suggest a genetic basis. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 300. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References The early origins of gaps in cognitive and noncognitive skills may suggest a genetic basis. Cognitive and noncognitive traits are not determined solely by genetics but genetics plays a role. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 301. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References The early origins of gaps in cognitive and noncognitive skills may suggest a genetic basis. Cognitive and noncognitive traits are not determined solely by genetics but genetics plays a role. 50% of variance in the traits is heritable. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 302. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References The early origins of gaps in cognitive and noncognitive skills may suggest a genetic basis. Cognitive and noncognitive traits are not determined solely by genetics but genetics plays a role. 50% of variance in the traits is heritable. Family investment and early childhood programs promote both cognitive and noncognitive skills. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 303. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References IQ can be fostered in the very early years (0-3). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 304. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References IQ can be fostered in the very early years (0-3). IQ becomes rank stable by the early teenage years. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 305. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References IQ can be fostered in the very early years (0-3). IQ becomes rank stable by the early teenage years. Achievement (crystallized intelligence or knowledge) can be acquired throughout ones lifetime but not raw “fluid” intelligence. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 306. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References IQ can be fostered in the very early years (0-3). IQ becomes rank stable by the early teenage years. Achievement (crystallized intelligence or knowledge) can be acquired throughout ones lifetime but not raw “fluid” intelligence. Personality skills are more malleable until later ages. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 307. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References IQ can be fostered in the very early years (0-3). IQ becomes rank stable by the early teenage years. Achievement (crystallized intelligence or knowledge) can be acquired throughout ones lifetime but not raw “fluid” intelligence. Personality skills are more malleable until later ages. Schools and early family environments (parenting practices) serve to shape these skills. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 308. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 55: A Life Cycle Framework for Organizing Studies and Integrating Evidence: The Technology of Skill Formation Prenatal Parental Parental Prenatal Fetal Traits PRENATAL Environments Investment Childhood traits Perinatal Parental (personality, cognition, Environments BIRTH and health) Investment: Parenting and Preschool EARLY Parental Traits CHILDHOOD 0-3 Environments Parenting and Parental Preschool LATER Environments Traits CHILDHOOD 3-6 Parenting and School Adult Traits ADULTHOOD Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 309. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 56: Synergies among Investment and Traits Cognition (early) Cognition (later) Personality (early) Personality (later) Investment (early) Investment (later) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 310. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 56: Synergies among Investment and Traits Cognition (early) Cognition (later) Personality (early) Personality (later) Investment (early) Investment (later) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 311. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 56: Synergies among Investment and Traits Cognition (early) Cognition (later) Personality (early) Personality (later) Investment (early) Investment (later) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 312. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 56: Synergies among Investment and Traits Cognition (early) Cognition (later) Personality (early) Personality (later) Investment (early) Investment (later) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 313. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 56: Synergies among Investment and Traits Cognition (early) Cognition (later) Personality (early) Personality (later) Investment (early) Investment (later) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 314. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 56: Synergies among Investment and Traits Cognition (early) Cognition (later) Personality (early) Personality (later) Investment (early) Investment (later) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 315. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 56: Synergies among Investment and Traits Cognition (early) Cognition (later) Personality (early) Personality (later) Investment (early) Investment (later) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 316. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 56: Synergies among Investment and Traits Cognition (early) Cognition (later) Personality (early) Personality (later) Investment (early) Investment (later) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 317. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 56: Synergies among Investment and Traits Cognition (early) Cognition (later) Personality (early) Personality (later) Investment (early) Investment (later) Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 318. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Cunha, Heckman and Schennach [2010] estimate these relationships using longitudinal data on the development of children with rich measures of parental investment and child traits. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 319. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Cunha, Heckman and Schennach [2010] estimate these relationships using longitudinal data on the development of children with rich measures of parental investment and child traits. Persistence of traits becomes stronger as children become older, for both cognitive and noncognitive capabilities. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 320. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Cunha, Heckman and Schennach [2010] estimate these relationships using longitudinal data on the development of children with rich measures of parental investment and child traits. Persistence of traits becomes stronger as children become older, for both cognitive and noncognitive capabilities. It is more difficult to compensate for the effects of adverse environments on cognitive endowments at later ages than it is at earlier ages. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 321. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Explains a large body of evidence on ineffective cognitive remediation strategies for disadvantaged adolescents. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 322. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Explains a large body of evidence on ineffective cognitive remediation strategies for disadvantaged adolescents. Personality traits foster the development of cognition but not vice versa. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 323. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Explains a large body of evidence on ineffective cognitive remediation strategies for disadvantaged adolescents. Personality traits foster the development of cognition but not vice versa. It is estimated to be equally easy to substitute at both stages for personality skills over the life cycle (Cunha, Heckman and Schennach [2010]). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 324. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Explains a large body of evidence on ineffective cognitive remediation strategies for disadvantaged adolescents. Personality traits foster the development of cognition but not vice versa. It is estimated to be equally easy to substitute at both stages for personality skills over the life cycle (Cunha, Heckman and Schennach [2010]). Overall, 16% of the variation in educational attainment is explained by factors extracted from cognitive traits, 12% is due to factors extracted from personality traits, and 15% is due to factors extracted from measured parental investments. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 325. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Prioritizing Investment Given the fluidity and malleability of traits while young. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 326. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Prioritizing Investment Given the fluidity and malleability of traits while young. And the difficulty in changing traits the older the person. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 327. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Prioritizing Investment Given the fluidity and malleability of traits while young. And the difficulty in changing traits the older the person. We should invest relatively more in the early-preschool years. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 328. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Prioritizing Investment Given the fluidity and malleability of traits while young. And the difficulty in changing traits the older the person. We should invest relatively more in the early-preschool years. Builds the skill base that makes later-age investment more productive. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 329. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Prioritizing Investment Given the fluidity and malleability of traits while young. And the difficulty in changing traits the older the person. We should invest relatively more in the early-preschool years. Builds the skill base that makes later-age investment more productive. Avoids costly and usually ineffective remediation. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 330. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 57: Returns to a unit cruzeiro invested AGE Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 331. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 57: Returns to a unit cruzeiro invested AGE Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 332. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 57: Returns to a unit cruzeiro invested AGE Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 333. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 57: Returns to a unit cruzeiro invested AGE Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 334. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Yet society invests relatively more in the later years. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 335. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Yet society invests relatively more in the later years. Brasil used to be terrible in this regard, especially for disadvantaged children. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 336. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Yet society invests relatively more in the later years. Brasil used to be terrible in this regard, especially for disadvantaged children. Has shifted focus towards primary education. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 337. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Yet society invests relatively more in the later years. Brasil used to be terrible in this regard, especially for disadvantaged children. Has shifted focus towards primary education. Should shift further toward preschool years. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 338. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Costs of Neglecting Soft Skills: Lessons from the GED Testing Program in the U.S. Induces Dropping Out Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 339. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Costs of Neglecting Soft Skills: Lessons from the GED Testing Program in the U.S. Induces Dropping Out Deceptive Statistics Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 340. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References The GED Induces Students to Drop Out Loss of skills acquired in high school. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 341. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References The GED Induces Students to Drop Out Loss of skills acquired in high school. Delay in attaining a BA even for those who get it. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 342. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 58: Effect of Eliminating the GED Source: Heckman et al. (2008). a Note: The numbers in columns (1) and (2) are computed as fractions of the overall population. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 343. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 59: Graduation Rate Before and After Implementing the GED Program, CaliforniaRate Before andother States GED Program, California vs. All other States Figure 11. Graduation vs. All After Implementing the DiD Estimate 84% DiD Estimate DiD Estimate -2.6% -3.1% -3.6% 82% 79.8% 80% 77.9% 77.8% 78% 76.2% 76.1% 75.5% Graduation Rate 75.5% 76% 73.7% 73.0% 73.3% 74% 71.3% 70.6% 72% 70% 68% 66% Overall Males Females U.S. (Excl. CA) Pre-74 California Pre-74 U.S. (Excl. CA) Post-74 California Post-74 Notes: Authors calculations based on NCES data. The graduation rate is the number of regular public and private high school diplomas issued over the 14 year old population four years previous. Population totals for the U.S. were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. California population estimates were obtained from the California Demographic Research Unit. Huber-White robust standard errors in parentheses. State 15 year old population are used as weights. Pre-period is defined as 1971-1973 and Post-period as 1975-1977. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 344. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Induces Dropping Out Immature decision makers tempted by bad choices (Steinberg, 2009). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 345. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Induces Dropping Out Immature decision makers tempted by bad choices (Steinberg, 2009). (a) Slowly developing prefrontal cortex. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 346. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Induces Dropping Out Immature decision makers tempted by bad choices (Steinberg, 2009). (a) Slowly developing prefrontal cortex. (b) Youth need guidance. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 347. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Induces Dropping Out Immature decision makers tempted by bad choices (Steinberg, 2009). (a) Slowly developing prefrontal cortex. (b) Youth need guidance. (c) Giving them a GED option distorts lifetime choices. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 348. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 39: Proportion of Individuals in Each Age Group Scoring at or Above the Mean for 26- to 30-Year-Olds on Indices ofPersonality Psychology and Intellectual and Psychosocial Maturity. % scoring at mean adult level 55 Intellectual ability Psychosocial maturity 45 35 25 15 5 10 − 11 12 − 13 14 − 15 16 − 17 18 − 21 22 − 25 26 − 30 Age Source: From Steinberg, Cauffman, Woolard et al. (2009), submitted for publication.27 Proportion of Individuals in Each Age Group Scoring at or Above the Mean for Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 349. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Costs of dropout and delay: (a) Delay in attainment: 10% loss in present value for each year of delay; delay is 2–3 years for those who attain the degree. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 350. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Costs of dropout and delay: (a) Delay in attainment: 10% loss in present value for each year of delay; delay is 2–3 years for those who attain the degree. (b) Loss of skills acquired in high school from seat time. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 351. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Distorts Statistics On Secondary School Dropout Rate Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 352. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Inflates the High School Graduation Rate Effects of the GED on the Measured High School Graduation Rate Reduction in Graduation Rate If GEDs Excluded Panel A. Overall All Races -7.4% Whites -7.5% Blacks -9.5% Hispanics -5.7% Panel B. Males All Races -8.1% Whites -8.7% Blacks -10.3% Hispanics -5.0% Panel C. Females All Races -6.6% Whites -6.3% Blacks -8.7% Hispanics -6.5% Notes: Authors’ calculations based on Census 2000 data (IPUMS). All estimates are weighted and race categories are mutually exclusive. Calculations are for the 20-24 year old population. Total GED recipients are estimated from GED testing service data. The recent immigrant category contains only those who are in the civilian non-institutional population and who emigrated to the U.S. after 1990. Those still enrolled in high school are excluded from calculations. The percentage of GEDs who are recent immigrants is estimated from CPS October data. Estimates of GEDs who are incarcerated or in the military are obtained from BJS and DOD data, respectively. The bias calculations are computed sequentially so that those belonging to multiple groups are only counted once. The order of the categories excluded matches the column order in each table. Source: Heckman and LaFontaine (2010). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 353. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Overall U.S. Graduation Rate by Race, Census IPUMS 1970-2000 Table III. Overall U.S. Graduation Rate by Race, Census IPUMS 1970-2000 Year of Birth Range 1946-1950 1951-1955 1956-1960 1961-1965 1966-1970 1971-1975 1976-1980 Panel A. Males and Females All Races 80.8% 81.0% 78.6% 77.9% 79.4% 79.2% 77.1% Whites 83.8% 84.2% 81.7% 81.6% 82.6% 82.8% 81.7% Blacks 63.7% 69.1% 68.0% 63.9% 69.2% 68.9% 66.4% Hispanics 58.6% 64.6% 65.2% 62.6% 64.9% 62.3% 62.9% Hispanics Inc. Immigrants 56.6% 54.5% 56.8% 53.3% 54.7% 52.0% 53.9% Panel B. Males All Races 80.8% 80.6% 76.8% 76.2% 77.1% 77.3% 74.1% Whites 84.0% 83.8% 80.2% 80.1% 80.8% 81.5% 79.1% Blacks 60.9% 66.1% 62.8% 62.3% 64.6% 65.8% 61.0% Hispanics 60.0% 64.0% 62.8% 61.0% 62.9% 61.4% 59.5% Hispanics Inc. Immigrants 58.1% 54.0% 54.6% 49.6% 51.1% 48.2% 50.1% Panel C. Females All Races 80.7% 81.4% 80.5% 79.7% 80.3% 81.0% 80.3% Whites 83.6% 84.5% 83.2% 83.3% 83.3% 84.1% 84.3% Blacks 66.0% 71.5% 72.6% 66.2% 71.3% 74.5% 71.5% Hispanics 57.5% 64.4% 66.6% 71.0% 68.1% 67.3% 66.7% Hispanics Inc. Immigrants 55.4% 55.1% 59.0% 57.5% 58.6% 56.3% 58.5% Note: Authors calculations from Census 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 data. Census graduation rates are ages 20-24 or 25-29 depending on cohort and do not include recent immigrants. Recent immigrants are those who entered the U.S. within the last ten years for 20-24 year olds and within the last fifteen years for 25-29 year olds. GED recipients are estimated for each cohort using GEDTS data and are deducted from the Census high school completer totals. 1981-1985 estimates from 2004 ACS data. Those who report never having enrolled in school are excluded. All races calculations include Asians, Native Americans and other race groups not shown separately. Source: Heckman and LaFontaine (2010). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 354. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Distorts Statistics on Wage Differentials Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 355. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References The Role of the GED in Explaining Rising Educational Wage Gaps, Males and Females, Ages 25-29, NLSY79 Annual Earnings Weekly Wage Growth in College-HS Gap 18.40 12.82 (8.26) (6.04) Growth in College-Dropout Gap 23.67 13.60 (27.30) (23.23) Source: Heckman and LaFontaine (2010). Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 356. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Summary 1 Personality traits can be measured and have predictive power on par with cognitive traits. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 357. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Summary 1 Personality traits can be measured and have predictive power on par with cognitive traits. 2 There is a growing body of evidence that shows the causal status of these traits—not just a correlation. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 358. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Summary 1 Personality traits can be measured and have predictive power on par with cognitive traits. 2 There is a growing body of evidence that shows the causal status of these traits—not just a correlation. 3 Both cognitive and personality traits can be enhanced by policy. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 359. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Summary 1 Personality traits can be measured and have predictive power on par with cognitive traits. 2 There is a growing body of evidence that shows the causal status of these traits—not just a correlation. 3 Both cognitive and personality traits can be enhanced by policy. 4 Cognitive traits less malleable after ages 10–12. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 360. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Summary 1 Personality traits can be measured and have predictive power on par with cognitive traits. 2 There is a growing body of evidence that shows the causal status of these traits—not just a correlation. 3 Both cognitive and personality traits can be enhanced by policy. 4 Cognitive traits less malleable after ages 10–12. 5 Personality traits are more malleable until later ages and are an avenue of policy through the young adult years. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 361. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Summary 6 There is a dynamic to capability formation: capabilities cross foster each other and are self-productive. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 362. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Summary 6 There is a dynamic to capability formation: capabilities cross foster each other and are self-productive. 7 It is important to lay down the foundations early when children are malleable. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 363. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Summary 6 There is a dynamic to capability formation: capabilities cross foster each other and are self-productive. 7 It is important to lay down the foundations early when children are malleable. 8 Early intervention more cost effective than later life remediation. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 364. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Summary 6 There is a dynamic to capability formation: capabilities cross foster each other and are self-productive. 7 It is important to lay down the foundations early when children are malleable. 8 Early intervention more cost effective than later life remediation. 9 There are real costs to society of ignoring soft skills— Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 365. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Summary 6 There is a dynamic to capability formation: capabilities cross foster each other and are self-productive. 7 It is important to lay down the foundations early when children are malleable. 8 Early intervention more cost effective than later life remediation. 9 There are real costs to society of ignoring soft skills— a produces perverse incentives for children and teachers; Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 366. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Summary 6 There is a dynamic to capability formation: capabilities cross foster each other and are self-productive. 7 It is important to lay down the foundations early when children are malleable. 8 Early intervention more cost effective than later life remediation. 9 There are real costs to society of ignoring soft skills— a produces perverse incentives for children and teachers; b produces distorted statistics. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 367. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Appendix Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 368. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 56: Annual Income Differences - By Age - NLSY79 - (Females, All Races) (a) All Post-Secondary Education (b) No Post-Secondary Education 20000 20000 15000 15000 10000 10000 5000 5000 0 0 Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Age 20 to 24 Age 25 to 29 Age 30 to 34 Age 35 to 39 Age 20 to 24 Age 25 to 29 Age 30 to 34 Age 35 to 39 GED p<0.05(GED vs.HSG) S.E. GED p<0.05(GED vs.HSG) S.E. High School p<0.05(GED/HSG vs.Dropout) High School p<0.05(GED/HSG vs.Dropout) Source: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Controls: “Raw” – age and region or state of residence; “Abil” – AFQT adjusted for schooling at time of test; “BG” – mother’s highest grade completed, urban status at age 14, family income in 1979, broken home status in 1979, south at age 14 and AFQT. Regressions exclude those reporting earning more than $300,000 or working more than 4,000 hours. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 369. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 57: Hourly Wage Differences - By Age - NLSY79 - (Females, All Races) (a) All Post-Secondary Education (b) No Post-Secondary Education 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 −2 −2 Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Age 20 to 24 Age 25 to 29 Age 30 to 34 Age 35 to 39 Age 20 to 24 Age 25 to 29 Age 30 to 34 Age 35 to 39 GED p<0.05(GED vs.HSG) S.E. GED p<0.05(GED vs.HSG) S.E. High School p<0.05(GED/HSG vs.Dropout) High School p<0.05(GED/HSG vs.Dropout) Source: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Controls: “Raw” – age and region or state of residence; “Abil” – AFQT adjusted for schooling at time of test; “BG” – mother’s highest grade completed, urban status at age 14, family income in 1979, broken home status in 1979, south at age 14 and AFQT. Regressions exclude those reporting earning more than $300,000 or working more than 4,000 hours. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 370. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 58: Employment Differences - By Age - NLSY79 - (Females, All Races) (a) All Post-Secondary Education (b) No Post-Secondary Education .4 .4 .3 .3 .2 .2 .1 .1 0 0 Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Age 20 to 24 Age 25 to 29 Age 30 to 34 Age 35 to 39 Age 20 to 24 Age 25 to 29 Age 30 to 34 Age 35 to 39 GED p<0.05(GED vs.HSG) S.E. GED p<0.05(GED vs.HSG) S.E. High School p<0.05(GED/HSG vs.Dropout) High School p<0.05(GED/HSG vs.Dropout) Source: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Controls: “Raw” – age and region or state of residence; “Abil” – AFQT adjusted for schooling at time of test; “BG” – mother’s highest grade completed, urban status at age 14, family income in 1979, broken home status in 1979, south at age 14 and AFQT. Regressions exclude those reporting earning more than $300,000 or working more than 4,000 hours. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 371. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References Figure 59: Hours Worked Differences - By Age - NLSY79 - (Females, All Races) (a) All Post-Secondary Education (b) No Post-Secondary Education 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 −200 −200 Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Raw Abil BG Age 20 to 24 Age 25 to 29 Age 30 to 34 Age 35 to 39 Age 20 to 24 Age 25 to 29 Age 30 to 34 Age 35 to 39 GED p<0.05(GED vs.HSG) S.E. GED p<0.05(GED vs.HSG) S.E. High School p<0.05(GED/HSG vs.Dropout) High School p<0.05(GED/HSG vs.Dropout) Source: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Controls: “Raw” – age and region or state of residence; “Abil” – AFQT adjusted for schooling at time of test; “BG” – mother’s highest grade completed, urban status at age 14, family income in 1979, broken home status in 1979, south at age 14 and AFQT. Regressions exclude those reporting earning more than $300,000 or working more than 4,000 hours. Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
  • 372. Glossary of Psychology Terms Definition (American Psychological Association 2007 Psychology Term Dictionary definition in quotes) Example Measures “Any experience of feeling or emotion, ranging from suffering to elation, from the simplest to the most complex Positive and Negative Affect Scale (PANAS; (Watson, Clark, & Affect sensations of feeing, and from the most normal to the most Tellegen, 1988)) pathological emotional reactions.” “The tendency to act in a cooperative, unselfish manner, construed as one end of a dimension of individual Big Five Agreeableness Agreeableness domain of any Big Five questionnaire. differences (agreeableness vs. disagreeableness) in the Big Five personality model.” “The tendency to be organized, responsible, and Big Five hardworking, construed as one end of a dimension of Conscientiousness domain of any Big Five questionnaire Conscientiousness individual differences (conscientiousness vs. lack of direction) in the Big Five personality model.” “An orientation of one’s interests and energies toward the outer world of people and things rather than the inner world of subjective experience. Extraversion is a broad personality Big Five Extraversion Extraversion domain of any Big Five questionnaire. trait and, like introversion, exists on a continuum of attitudes and behaviors. Extroverts are relatively more outgoing, gregarious, sociable, and openly expressive.” Big Five Neuroticism “One of the dimensions of the…Big Five personality model characterized by a chronic level of emotional instability and Neuroticism domain of any Big Five questionnaire. (or Emotional Stability) proneness to psychological distress.” Big Five Openness to Openness domain of any Big Five questionnaire; Typical Intellectual Experience (or “A dimension of the Big Five personality model that refers Engagement (Goff & Ackerman, 1992) Intellect) to individual differences in the tendency to be open to new aesthetic, cultural, or intellectual experiences.” “A model of the primary dimensions of individual Big Five personality differences in personality. The dimensions are usually NEO-PI-R (Costa & McCrae, 1992); model labeled extraversion, neuroticism, agreeableness, Big Five Inventory (John & Srivastava, 1999) conscientiousness, and openness to experience, though the labels vary somewhat among researchers.” A specific mental ability. The tendency to reflect before Cognitive reflection Cognitive Reflection Test (Frederick, 2005) taking an intuitive answer as correct. “Ability to produce original work, theories, techniques or Creativity thoughts […] Related with imagination, expressiveness, Creative Personality Scale (Gough, 1979) originality.” “Forgoing immediate reward in order to obtain a larger or Preschool Delay of Gratification Task (Mischel & Metzner, 1962); Delay of gratification more desirable reward in the future” Choice Delay task (Duckworth & Seligman, 2005)
  • 373. Glossary of Psychology Terms (Continued) “Ability to process emotional information and use it in reasoning and other cognitive activities. According to Mayer and Salovey 1997 model it comprises four abilities: to perceive and appraise emotions accurately, to access and Emotional Intelligence MSCEIT (Mayer, Salovey, & Caruso, 2002) evoke emotions when they facilitate cognition, to comprehend emotional language and make use of emotional information, and to regulate one’s own and others’ emotions to promote growth and well-being” “Higher level cognitive processes that organize and order behavior, including logic and reasoning, abstract thinking, problem solving, planning and carrying out and terminating Innumerable neuropsychology tasks (e.g., go/no-go, Stroop, Executive Function goal-directed behavior” Executive function generally refers Continuous Performance Task); BRIEF rating scale (Donders, 2002) to the broad array of functions attributed to the frontal cortex; some psychologists include general intelligence in this array whereas others do not. Goal: “The end state toward which a human is striving” Thematic Apperception Test (McClelland, Atkinson, Clark, & Goals and Motives Lowell, 1976; McClelland & Koestner, 1992); Jackson Personality Motive: “Physiological or psychological state of arousal that Research Form (Jackson, 1974) directs an organism’s energies toward a goal” Intelligence: “The ability to derive information, learn from experience, adapt to the environment, understand and correctly utilize thought and reason. There are many different definitions of intelligence, including an operational one, proposed by Edwin Boring, that intelligence is what is tested by intelligence tests. There is currently much debate, as there has been in the past, over the exact nature of intelligence.” Intelligence is used by most psychologists synonymously with cognitive ability and mental ability. g or general factor: “A hypothetical source of individual Weschler Intelligence Scale for Children (WISC), Weschler Adult Intelligence, g, IQ differences in general ability, which represents individuals’ Intelligence Scale (WAIS), Raven Progressive Matrices abilities to perceive relationships and to derive conclusions from them. The general factor is said to be a basic ability that underlies the performance of different varieties of intellectual tasks, in contrast to specific abilities, which are alleged each to be unique to a single task. Even theorists who posit multiple mental abilities have often suggested that a general factor may underlie these (correlated) mental abilities” IQ or intelligence quotient: “A standard measure of an individual’s intelligence level based on psychological tests.”
  • 374. Glossary of Psychology Terms (Continued) Self-Directed Search (http://www.self-directed- Interests “Attitude characterized by a need to give selective attention search.com/Holland.html), Strong Interest Inventory to something that is significant to the individual”. (http://www.cpp.com/products/strong/index.asp) “Perception of how much control individuals have over Locus of control Internal-External Locus of Control Scale (Rotter, 1966) conditions of their lives”. “A personality test designed to classify individuals according to their expressed choices between contrasting alternatives in certain categories of traits. The categories, Myers-Briggs Type based on Jungian typology, are extraversion-Introversion, MBTI (http://www.cpp.com/products/mbti/index.asp) Indicator (MBTI) Sensing-Intuition, Thinking-Feeling, and Judging- Perceiving…The test has little credibility among research psychologists but is widely used in educational counseling and human resource management…” “Patterns of behavior or thought processes that are abnormal or maladaptive”. A broad category comprising dysfunctional patterns of thought, feeling, or behavior. Most disorders are included in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Beck Depression Inventory; Beck Anxiety Inventory; Minnesota Psychopathology Disorders (DSM) manual published by the American Multiphasic Personality Inventory (omnibus measure of multiple Psychiatric Association. Axis I disorders (e.g., depression) disorders); Child Behavior Checklist are more intense and episodic/discreet, whereas Axis II disorders (i.e., personality disorders) are more tonic and enduring. “An individual’s capacity to act effectively to bring about Generalized self-efficacy scales 1 . Childrens Perceived Self-Efficacy Self-efficacy desired results, especially as perceived by the individual.” Scales (Pastorelli et al., 2001). Self-esteem “The degree to which the qualities and characteristics Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (Rosenberg, 1989) contained in one’s self concept are perceived to be positive” “The tendency to search out and engage in thrilling activities as a method of increasing stimulation and arousal. It takes Sensation-Seeking Scale (M. Zuckerman, 1974; Marvin Zuckerman, Sensation Seeking the form of engaging in highly stimulating activities 2006) accompanied by a perception of danger.” A facet of either Big Five Conscientiousness or Extraversion A dimension of Big Five Extraversion that includes facets Social dominance such as dominance, independent, and self-confidence, NEO-PI-R Assertiveness scale; 16PF Dominance Scale especially in social settings. “Abilities as measured by tests of an individual in areas of spatial visualization, perceptual need, number facility, verbal Specific mental abilities Subtest scores on IQ tests comprehension, word fluency, memory, inductive reasoning and so forth” 1 Bandura, originator of the concept "self-efficacy" emphasizes the importance of measuring domain-specific measures (Bandura, 1999).
  • 375. Glossary of Psychology Terms (Continued) A dimension of Big Five Extraversion that includes traits California Personality Inventory (CPI)Sociability Scale; NEO-PI-R Social vitality such as sociability, positive effect, and gregariousness. Gregariousness and Activity Scales “Basic foundation of personality, usually assumed to be Childrens Behavior Questionnaire Temperament biologically determined and present early in life[…] (http://www.bowdoin.edu/~sputnam/rothbart-temperament- (childhood) Includes characteristics such as energy level, emotional questionnaires/) responsiveness, response tempo and willingness to explore” Type A personality is “a personality pattern characterized by chronic competitiveness, high levels of achievement Type A/Type B motivation, and hostility.” Type B personality is “a Jenkins Activity Survey (Jenkins, Zyzanski, & Rosenman, 1971) personality personality pattern characterized by low levels of competitiveness and frustration and a relaxed, easy going approach.” “A moral, social or aesthetic principle accepted by an Values in Action Inventory of Strengths (Peterson & Seligman, Values individual (or society) as a guide to what is good, desirable 2004) or important.”

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