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insights from David J. Hand
This presentation consists of 10 highlights
from the interview with Moe Abdou,
founder & host of 33voices®.
David J. Hand
Professor David Hand is Senior Research
Investigator and Emeritus Professor of Math-
ematics at Imperial Col...
1
Extremely improbable events are commonplace;
accept it, understand it and appreciate it.
2
To understand the Improbability Principle,
keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws:
2
To understand the Improbability Principle,
keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws:
The law of inevitability
2
To understand the Improbability Principle,
keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws:
The law of truly large numbers
2
To understand the Improbability Principle,
keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws:
The law of selection
2
To understand the Improbability Principle,
keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws:
The law of probability lever
2
To understand the Improbability Principle,
keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws:
The law of near enough
3
Correlation does not imply causation.
be cautious that correlated events
may just have a common cause.
4
If you’re superstitious,
it’s likely just a belief.
still, the laws of probability don’t validate any type of superstiti...
5
In evaluating future opportunities,
it’s wise to collect as much retrospective data as possible
and look for patterns to...
6
Self-fulfilling prophecies
are perceived real only because we often focus on
what occurredand hardly remember all the ti...
6
Self-fulfilling prophecies
are perceived real only because we often focus on
what occurredand hardly remember all the ti...
7
Ignore chance and randomness in life at your peril;
they will happen.
8
To improve the odds that you’ll
‘be in the right place at the right time,’
give yourself more opportunities -
get visibl...
9
Rest assured that there are
no certainties in life!
10
Looking back is easy,
but looking forward is almost impossible.
the role of chance in life is real.
Do you believe in miracles?
REALLY REFLECT...
Connect WITH US!
Tell us what you think
Chase@33voices.com
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Don't Be Fooled by Randomness | 10 Insights from David J. Hand

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Professor David Hand is Senior Research Investigator and Emeritus Professor of Mathematics at Imperial College, London, where he formerly held the Chair in Statistics. He is also Chief Scientific Advisor to Winton Capital Management, a Fellow of the British Academy, and an Honorary Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries. He has served (twice) as President of the Royal Statistical Society. He was appointed a non-executive director of the UK Statistics Authority on 1 April 2013 for a period of three years, and is Chair of the Board of the UK Administrative Data Research Network. In 2002 he was awarded the Guy Medal of the Royal Statistical Society, and in 2012 he and his research group won the Credit Collections and Risk Award for Contributions to the Credit Industry. He has published 300 scientific papers and 26 books, including Principles of Data Mining, Information Generation, and Measurement Theory and Practice. His new book, The Improbability Principle, will be published in February 2014. In 2013 he was made OBE for services to research and innovation.

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Transcript of "Don't Be Fooled by Randomness | 10 Insights from David J. Hand"

  1. 1. Powered by insights from David J. Hand
  2. 2. This presentation consists of 10 highlights from the interview with Moe Abdou, founder & host of 33voices®.
  3. 3. David J. Hand Professor David Hand is Senior Research Investigator and Emeritus Professor of Math- ematics at Imperial College, London, where he formerly held the Chair in Statistics. He is also Chief Scientific Advisor to Winton Capital Management, a Fellow of the British Acad- emy, and an Honorary Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries. He has served (twice) as Presi- dent of the Royal Statistical Society. He was appointed a non-executive director of the UK Statistics Authority on 1 April 2013 for a period of three years, and is Chair of the Board of the UK Administrative Data Research Network. In 2002 he was awarded the Guy Medal of the Royal Statistical Society, and in 2012 he and his research group won the Credit Collections and Risk Award for Contributions to the Credit Industry.
  4. 4. 1 Extremely improbable events are commonplace; accept it, understand it and appreciate it.
  5. 5. 2 To understand the Improbability Principle, keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws:
  6. 6. 2 To understand the Improbability Principle, keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws: The law of inevitability
  7. 7. 2 To understand the Improbability Principle, keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws: The law of truly large numbers
  8. 8. 2 To understand the Improbability Principle, keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws: The law of selection
  9. 9. 2 To understand the Improbability Principle, keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws: The law of probability lever
  10. 10. 2 To understand the Improbability Principle, keep in mind these fundamental 5 laws: The law of near enough
  11. 11. 3 Correlation does not imply causation. be cautious that correlated events may just have a common cause.
  12. 12. 4 If you’re superstitious, it’s likely just a belief. still, the laws of probability don’t validate any type of superstition.
  13. 13. 5 In evaluating future opportunities, it’s wise to collect as much retrospective data as possible and look for patterns to support your decision.
  14. 14. 6 Self-fulfilling prophecies are perceived real only because we often focus on what occurredand hardly remember all the times that such events didn’t occur.
  15. 15. 6 Self-fulfilling prophecies are perceived real only because we often focus on what occurredand hardly remember all the times that such events didn’t occur.
  16. 16. 7 Ignore chance and randomness in life at your peril; they will happen.
  17. 17. 8 To improve the odds that you’ll ‘be in the right place at the right time,’ give yourself more opportunities - get visible.
  18. 18. 9 Rest assured that there are no certainties in life!
  19. 19. 10 Looking back is easy, but looking forward is almost impossible. the role of chance in life is real.
  20. 20. Do you believe in miracles? REALLY REFLECT...
  21. 21. Connect WITH US! Tell us what you think Chase@33voices.com
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