Presentation of the main issues relating to diesel engines development in Europe: - Origins of diesel in France and Europe. - Diesel technical positioning compared to other engine technologies. - Quantities evolution of diesel engine in Europe in 2020. - Impacts of different futures scenarios on car makers and suppliers.

1. THE FUTURE OF DIESEL
ENGINE IN EUROPE
Michel Costes
Jamel Taganza
Jean-Michel Prillieux
Jean-Bruno Monteil
info@inovev.com
25/6/2013
Diesel-F-20130625
http://www.inovev.com

2. Contents
Diesel definition
 Diesel engine and fuel.
 Technology evolution in diesel engines.
Diesel history in Europe
 Oil supply strategy and policy in France in the 50-70s. Need of use heavy fractions from distillation.
Consequent Implementation of tax differential between diesel and gasoline fuel.
 Diesel development in France and in Europe from 1994 up to 2012.
Diesel market in Europe and in the rest of the world
 Market share in Europe from 1994 up to 2012.
• 27 countries of European Union and main countries: Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Netherlands.
• By segments: A, B, C, D, E, SUV.
• By carmakers: BMW, Daimler, VW, Renault-Nissan, PSA, FIAT.
 Diesel market in the rest of the world.
Current changes
 Comparison of emissions : CO2, CO, NOX, PM, Others. Strengthening of European regulations: EuroV, EuroVI.
 Other factors : toxicology, noise (internal, external), driving comfort, …
 Conclusion: threats on diesel.
Scenarios relating to diesel engine future
 Forecast from 2013 to 2017
• By segments: A, B, C, D, E, SUV.
• By carmakers: BMW, Daimler, VW, Renault-Nissan, PSA, FIAT.
• European forecast for 2017 and 2030 .
 Impacts on carmakers and parts suppliers: impacted components by change of diesel/gasoline/hybrid/electric engines ratio;
consequences for parts suppliers, which produce these components.
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3. DEFINITIONS DU DIESEL
DIESEL DEFINITION
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4. Diesel Engine and Fuel
Diesel engine:




Combustion of a heterogeneous mixture directly injected into the combustion chamber.
Self-ignited fuel.
Load adjusted by varying the amount of injected fuel, the mass of admitted air being substantially unchanged .
Strong excess of air in the mixture.
Diesel fuel:
 Mixture of hydrocarbons from mineral oil or synthesis and possibly methyl ester of fatty acid
 Ignition by compression
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5. Diesel Engine and Fuel
Diesel fuel
 French regulations (example – similar regulations all over Europe)
MEASUREMENTS
Density at 15° C
820 to 845 kg/m3
Distillation % recovered at 250° C
Less than 65 %
Distillation % recovered at 350° C
85 % minimum
Viscosity at 40 ° C
2 to 4.5 mm²/s
Sulfur content
Maximum 10 mg/kg
Water content
Maximum 200 mg/kg
Overall contamination
Maximum 24 mg/kg
Ash content
Maximum 0.01 %
Measured cetane index
Minimum 51 %
Calculated cetane index
Minimum 46 %
Flashpoint
More than 55°C
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons
8 % maximum
Content in methylic ester of fatty acid
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SPECIFICATIONS
7 % maximum
5

6. Technology Evolution in Diesel Engines
Indirect injection
Pre-chamber
Swirl chamber
Direct injection
First car equipped: FIAT Croma in 1988
Indirect injection versus direct injection
• Advantages for indirect injection: less noisy, weaker NOx emissions.
• Advantages for direct injection: better combustion, quicker start.
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7. Technology Evolution in Diesel Engines
Direct injection with injector pump system
 « Injector pump system » and « pump system » are based on the same concept: one pump injector nozzle for each
cylinder. These systems are mainly known for their outstanding performance: good acceleration and fuel savings.
Pump injectors are included in cylinder heads and are driven by camshaft.
These systems enable a better adjustment and a higher pressure (up to 2,050 bar)
Source: BOSCH
June 25, 2013
First car equipped: VW Golf in 1993
7

8. Technology Evolution in Diesel Engines
Direct injection with common rail system
 The first series-produced Common Rail System was marketed by Bosch in 1997.
The system sources its name from the high-pressure accumulator (Common Rail) which supplies all the cylinders with
fuel. While other diesel injection systems generate the fuel pressure for each injection separately, the Common Rail
System separates pressure generation and injection from one another. The fuel is constantly available at the pressure
required for injection. The Common Rail System is modular in design. The right combination of high-pressure pump,
injectors, rail and electronic control unit results in systems for all types of vehicle from the smallest passenger cars right
up to the heaviest luxury limousine.
The range of high-pressure pumps covers pressures from 1,100 bar to 2,200 bar.
First car equipped: ALFA ROMEO 156 in 1997
Source: BOSCH
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9. HISTORIQUE DU DIESEL EN EUROPE
DIESEL HISTORY IN EUROPE
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9

10. Diesel History in Europe
Oil supply policy in France in the 50-70s
 Need of use heavy fractions from distillation.
 Consequent Implementation of tax differential between diesel and gasoline fuel.
 This advantageous taxation combined with the better diesel engine led to increase slowly the market share of diesel until 1990.
Development of diesel in Europe from 1990 to now resulting from following factors:
 Technical development:
• indirect injection towards direct injection at the end of 80s (FIAT).
• direct injection with injector pump system at the beginning of 90s (VW).
• direct injection with common rail system at the end of 90s (Bosch).
 Strategy and policy of carmakers:
diesel cars are more expensive (10 to 15 %), the overcost can be balanced by savings on fuel (price and fuel consumption).
 Tax incentives:
• In 2013, the fuel tax in France is 0.4284 € per liter of diesel fuel against 0.6069 € per liter of unleaded gasoline 95 and 98.
• Nevertheless, the gap between customer price of diesel and gasoline fuel is decreasing due to the increase of diesel fuel cost
price (fuel price at the exit of refineries).
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11. DIESEL MARKET
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11

12. Market Share in Europe up to 2012 (PC registrations)
Diesel development in the different European countries from 1994 to 2012.
 Diesel car registrations in the European Union 27 countries (in volume):
 In 2011: 7.6 million of passenger cars and 1.3 million of light utility vehicles.
 In 2012: 6.9 million of passenger cars and 1.2 million of light utility vehicles.
 Registrations in market share - only passenger cars:
- Germany
- France
- Belgium
- United Kingdom
- Italy
- Netherlands
- Spain
- Portugal
Europe 27
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13. Market Share in Europe up to 2012 (PC registrations)
Germany
France
UK
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Italy
13

14. Market Share in Europe up to 2012 (PC registrations)
Spain
Belgium
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Portugal
Netherlands
14

15. Market Share in Europe up to 2012 by Segments (PC production)
Diesel market share in the main segments
(PC production In Europe between 1998 and 2012*) :
 Segment A
 Segment B
 Segment C
 Segment D
 Segment E
 Segment SUV
 Total production in Europe was 7.9 million of diesel
PC in 2012*
Segment A
All Segments
7.9 million
in 2012*
8 million in 2011
Segment B
1.82 million
in 2012*
0.14 million
in 2012*
1.84 million in 2011
0.14 million in 2011
2012* : Estimated figures
June 25, 2013
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16. Market Share in Europe up to 2012 by Segments (PC production)
Segment C
Segment D
2.62 million
in 2012*
1.42 million in 2011
2.69 million in 2011
Segment E
Segment SUV
0.62 million
in 2012*
1.25 million in 2011
0.64 million in 2011
2012* : Estimated figures
June 25, 2013
1.28 million
in 2012*
16
1.4 million
in 2012*

17. Market Share in Europe up to 2012 by Carmakers (PC production)
Diesel car market share of main European carmakers between 1998 and 2012:
 BMW Group (BMW + Mini)
 DAIMLER Group (Mercedes + Smart)
 VW Group (Audi + Seat + Skoda + VW)
 RENAULT-NISSAN Group (Dacia + Nissan + Renault)
 PSA Group (Peugeot + Citroën)
 FIAT Group (FIAT + Alfa + Lancia)
These automotive groups produced 6.7 million of diesel PC in Europe in 2012*.
Moreover, FORD Europe and GM Europe produced 0.8 million of diesel PC in 2012*.
Other carmakers (Japanese, Korean, Indian, Chinese groups) produced 0.4 million of diesel PC.
Total production in Europe was 7.9 million of diesel PC in 2012*.
2012* : Estimated figures
BMW GROUP
0.54 million
in 2012*
DAIMLER
0.51 million
in 2012*
0.58 million in 2011
0.46 million in 2011
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18. Market Share in Europe up to 2012 by Carmakers (PC production)
RENAULT-NISSAN
VW GROUP
2.25 million in 2011
2.18 million
in 2012*
1.53 million in 2011
1.46 million
in 2012*
FIAT GROUP
PSA
0.52 million
in 2012*
1.46 million in 2011
1.47 million
in 2012*
0.57 million in 2011
2012* : Estimated figures
June 25, 2013
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19. European Production by Engine in 2011 (PC+UV)
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
ENGINE FAMILY
1600 DIESEL PSA/FORD
2000 DIESEL VW
1500 DIESEL RENAULT
1600 DIESEL VW
2000 DIESEL PSA/FORD
1300 DIESEL FIAT
2000 DIESEL BMW
1400 DIESEL PSA/FORD
2200 DIESEL MERCEDES
2000 DIESEL FIAT
1700 DIESEL GM
2000 DIESEL RENAULT
3000 DIESEL VW
1200 DIESEL VW
2400 DIESEL VOLVO
2500 DIESEL RENAULT
1900 DIESEL RENAULT
2200 DIESEL PSA/FORD
3000 DIESEL BMW
2800 DIESEL FIAT
2000 DIESEL KIA
2000 DIESEL TOYOTA
1600 DIESEL FIAT
2300 DIESEL FIAT
CC
PROD 2011
Rank
1560
1968
1461
1598
1997
1248
1995
1398
2148
1956
1686
1995
2967
1198
2401
2495
1870
2179
2993
2800
1991
1995
1598
2300
1181152
1155542
1121134
777845
632799
523226
437283
294642
245823
181720
178511
160572
138625
123818
114773
111736
108795
91305
85475
81580
80244
78206
73785
70034
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
ENGINE FAMILY
3000 DIESEL MERCEDES
2200 DIESEL HONDA
2000 DIESEL VOLVO
1400 DIESEL TOYOTA
3000 DIESEL FORD/PSA
2000 DIESEL MERCEDES
1600 DIESEL BMW
2700 DIESEL FORD/PSA
2500 DIESEL FORD
1600 DIESEL KIA
2500 DIESEL NISSAN
2500 DIESEL VW
2200 DIESEL TOYOTA
3000 DIESEL RENAULT
1900 DIESEL FIAT
4400 DIESEL FORD
3000 DIESEL FIAT
2700 DIESEL VW
1800 DIESEL MERCEDES
800 DIESEL SMART
4200 DIESEL VW
1600 DIESEL RENAULT
1500 DIESEL MITSUBISHI
2400 DIESEL FIAT
19
CC
PROD 2011
2987
2204
1984
1364
2993
1991
1600
2720
2496
1582
2488
2459
2231
2993
1910
4367
3000
2698
1796
799
4134
1598
1493
2387
69068
67993
61751
60888
57015
55105
47952
47654
46313
43071
40628
38411
35776
29097
29089
24591
20941
16410
10795
10199
8276
7500
5903
1472

20. 1600 DIESEL PSA/FORD
2000 DIESEL VW
1500 DIESEL RENAULT
1600 DIESEL VW
2000 DIESEL PSA/FORD
1300 DIESEL FIAT
2000 DIESEL BMW
1400 DIESEL PSA/FORD
2200 DIESEL MERCEDES
2000 DIESEL FIAT
1700 DIESEL GM
2000 DIESEL RENAULT
3000 DIESEL VW
1200 DIESEL VW
2400 DIESEL VOLVO
2500 DIESEL RENAULT
1900 DIESEL RENAULT
2200 DIESEL PSA/FORD
3000 DIESEL BMW
2800 DIESEL FIAT
2000 DIESEL KIA
2000 DIESEL TOYOTA
1600 DIESEL FIAT
2300 DIESEL FIAT
3000 DIESEL MERCEDES
2200 DIESEL HONDA
2000 DIESEL VOLVO
1400 DIESEL TOYOTA
3000 DIESEL FORD/PSA
2000 DIESEL MERCEDES
1600 DIESEL BMW
2700 DIESEL FORD/PSA
2500 DIESEL FORD
1600 DIESEL KIA
2500 DIESEL NISSAN
2500 DIESEL VW
2200 DIESEL TOYOTA
3000 DIESEL RENAULT
1900 DIESEL FIAT
4400 DIESEL FORD
3000 DIESEL FIAT
2700 DIESEL VW
1800 DIESEL MERCEDES
800 DIESEL SMART
4200 DIESEL VW
1600 DIESEL RENAULT
1500 DIESEL MITSUBISHI
2400 DIESEL FIAT
European Production by Engine (PC+UV)
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
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21. Diesel Market in the Rest of the World (PC registrations)
Weak development in other regions of the world
 Low penetration of diesel in the rest of the world.
 Lobby due to oil companies.
 Lean burn engine in Japan.
Although it has almost doubled in Australia, Brazil and the USA over the last ten years, the diesel market share remains
marginal in these countries.
In Japan, however, the government has the idea to make the diesel market increase to about 5% (while it is currently
close to zero). Expensive hybrid vehicles would be then replaced by less expensive diesel vehicles.
It will however be difficult for diesel vehicles to reach such a market share in a country where diesel has been banned
since the 60s.
Europe currently accounts for 85% world
diesel market of passenger cars.
Worldwide diesel PC market share
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22. CURRENT CHANGES

23. Technical Positioning of Diesel versus other Motorisations
Other motorisation technologies:
 Direct injection gasoline.
 Traditional gasoline.
 Electric.
 Hybrid.
 Fuel cell.
Comparison gasoline / diesel:
 Engine consumption (CO2):
• Objective of the European Commission for 2015: 130 g/km; objective for 2020: 95 g/km .
• For same power output, traditional gasoline engines produce more CO2 compared to diesel engines: 15 to 20%
according to carmakers data.
• For direct injection gasoline engines, the gap is weaker: 0 to 15 % according to carmakers data. VW Group is the
leader in the development of these engines, which are used in Golf, Passat, A1, A3 and A4.
 Pollution: CO, NOx, Particulates, unburnt hydrocarbons:
• CO and unburnt hydrocarbons: advantage to diesel.
• Particulates and NOx : advantage to gasoline.
 Strengthening of European regulations over time (following slides).
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24. Strenghtening of European Regulations over time
Convergence of standards between diesel and gasoline over time: Euro III, Euro IV, Euro V, Euro VI
(emissions in mg/km without for number of particulates)
Diesel cars
Standards
Euro 1 Euro 2
Nitrogen oxides
(NOx)
-
-
500
250
180
80
Nitrogen oxides
(NOx)
Carbon
Monoxide (CO)
2720
1000
640
500
500
500
Carbon monoxide
(CO)
Hydrocarbons
(HC)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Non methane
hydrocarbons
(HCNM)
Euro 3
Gasoline cars
Euro 4
Euro 5
Euro 6
Standards
Euro 1
Euro 2
Euro 3
Euro 4
Euro 5
Euro 6
-
-
150
80
60
60
2720
2200
2200
1000
1000
1000
Hydrocarbons
(HC)
-
-
200
100
100
100
Non methane
hydrocarbons
(HCNM)
-
-
-
-
68
68
-
-
-
-
-
-
HC + NOX
970
900
560
300
230
170
HC + NOX
-
-
-
-
-
-
Particulates
(PM)
140
100
50
25
5
4.5
Particulates (PM)
-
-
-
-
5(*)
4.5(*)
-
-
-
-
6×1011
6×1011
Particulates (PN)
(#/km)
-
-
-
-
-
6×1011
Particulates (PN)
(#/km)
* For direct injection gasoline
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25. Strenghtening of European Regulations over time
Convergence of standards between diesel and gasoline over time: Euro III, Euro IV, Euro V, Euro VI
Emissions in mg/km
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26. Technical Positioning of Diesel versus other Motorisations
Comparison gasoline / diesel
 Other factors: toxicity, noise, driving comfort, etc…
• In 2010, American Heart Association has underscored a relationship between exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) and
cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.
• noise treatment is more important in diesel vehicles, which increases their cost.
• Today, there is no big difference in driving comfort.
Competition with new motorisations
 Gasoline hybrids:
Smaller gasoline consumption than traditional gasoline engines.
No big use in Europe due to diesel competition.
 Electric vehicles:
No direct pollution, less noise, possibility of loading cars locally
(no need to go to the gasoline station for short trip users).
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27. Technical Positioning of Diesel versus other Motorisations
Threats on diesel:
 Increasing cost of depollution in diesel engines with Euro VI: particulate filter and NOx catalyst:
• Particulate filters have been and are widely used in order to comply with Euro V. Some improvements are in
progress in order to filter smaller and more toxic particles.
• Selective NOx reduction catalysts should be used in order to pass Euro VI standards in September 2015
(SCR systems with added urea).
 Health concern:
• According to a World Health Organisation statement in 2012, emissions of fine particles present in exhaust gases of
diesel engines would have a carcinogenic effect.
• European Union has fixed a limit value for “PM2.5” at 25 µg/m3 of air in 2015, then at 20 µg/m3 in 2020.
 Impact on economics:
• Deficits of trade balance of European countries due to diesel fuel importations:
In France for instance, this deficit accounts for € 13 billion by year i.e. 20% of the total deficit of the country.
• Loss in taxes for European countries.
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28. SCENARIOS ABOUT DIESEL ENGINE FUTURE
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29. Our different Scenarios
Scenarios
 Two main scenarios, which depend on:
• Political choices in France and in Europe.
• Influences of the different lobbies.
 Scenario 1: Slow decrease:
• Progressive change in taxes.
• Low market shares for hybrid and electric vehicles in 2030.
• Likely scenario.
 Scenario 2: Faster decrease:
• Quick increase of taxes on diesel fuel.
• Higher penetration of the alternative motorisations in 2030.
• Less likely scenario.
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30. Market Share in Europe up to 2017 by Segments (PC production)
Diesel market share in the main segments
(PC production In Europe between 1998 and 2017) :
 Segment A
 Segment B
 Segment C
 Segment D
 Segment E
 Segment SUV
 Total production in Europe was 7.9 million of diesel
PC in 2012*
Segment A
All Segments
7.9 million
in 2012*
8 million in 2011
Segment B
1.82 million
in 2012*
0.14 million
in 2012*
1.84 million in 2011
0.14 million in 2011
2012* : Estimated figures
June 25, 2013
30

31. Market Share in Europe up to 2017 by Segments (PC production)
Segment C
Segment D
2.62 million
in 2012*
1.42 million in 2011
2.69 million in 2011
Segment E
Segment SUV
0.62 million
in 2012*
1.25 million in 2011
0.64 million in 2011
2012* : Estimated figures
June 25, 2013
1.28 million
in 2012*
31
1.4 million
in 2012*

32. Market Share in Europe up to 2017 by Carmakers (PC production)
Diesel car market share of the main European carmakers between 1998 in 2017:
 BMW Group (BMW + Mini).
 DAIMLER Group (Mercedes + Smart).
 VW Group (Audi + Seat + Skoda + VW).
 RENAULT-NISSAN Group (Dacia + Nissan + Renault).
 PSA Group (Peugeot + Citroën).
 FIAT Group (FIAT + Alfa + Lancia).
These automotive groups produced 6.7 million of diesel PC in Europe in 2012*.
In addition, FORD and GM Europe produced 0.8 million of diesel PC diesel.
Finally, other carmakers (Japanese, Korean, Indian, Chinese groups) produced 0.4 million of diesel PC.
Total production in Europe was 7.9 million of diesel PC in 2012*.
2012* : Estimated figures
BMW GROUP
0.54 million
in 2012*
DAIMLER
0.51 million
in 2012*
0.58 million in 2011
0.46 million in 2011
June 25, 2013
32

33. Market Share in Europe up to 2017 by Carmakers (PC production)
RENAULT-NISSAN
VW GROUP
2.25 million in 2011
2.18 million
in 2012*
1.53 million in 2011
1.46 million
in 2012*
FIAT GROUP
PSA
0.52 million
in 2012*
1.46 million in 2011
1.47 million
in 2012*
0.57 million in 2011
2012* : Estimated figures
June 25, 2013
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34. Forecast for Europe in 2017
Forecast 2017
 Decrease of diesel market share in Europe: from 55 % in 2012 to 48 % in 2017
 The ratio of diesel vehicles produced in Europe has increased until 2004 (53%), and then was flat. After a drop in 2009,
this ratio has reached again the same level, but should decline under 50% during the coming years (in 2016 or 2017).
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35. Forecast for Europe in 2030
Forecast 2030
 Decrease of diesel market share in Europe: from 55 % in 2012 to 35 % in 2030
 The strong developments in direct injection gasoline engines, and in electric and hybrid vehicles, combined with
stringent standards on diesel engines and decrease in the price gap between gasoline and diesel fuel should lead to a
continuous decrease of diesel between today and 2030.
June 25, 2013
35

36. Forecast in Europe for 2017 and 2030: Comparison of our two Scenarios
2012
2017
2017
2030
2030
Slow decrease
Quick decrease
Slow decrease
Quick decrease
GASOLINE
44
49
50
50
50
DIESEL
55
48
45
35
30
1
3
5
15
20
HYBRIDS
ELECTRICS
MISCELLANEOUS
June 25, 2013
36

37. Market share of different motorisation: Comparison Europe / Japan
2012
2012
2017
2017
2030
2030
EUROPE
JAPAN
EUROPE
JAPAN
EUROPE
JAPAN
GASOLINE
44
88
49
82
50
65
DIESEL
55
0
48
0
35
5
HYBRIDS
ELECTRICS
MISCELLANEOUS
12
1
0,3
0
15
3
20
3
15
0
1
Sources : INOVEV for Europe, METI for Japan
June 25, 2013
10
37

38. Impacts of different Scenarios on Carmakers and Parts Suppliers
Carmakers
 Diesel market share of European carmakers:
• Renault-Nissan and PSA manufacture more diesel vehicles than the other European carmakers.
• BMW and Daimler produce few diesel vehicles.
 Slow decrease
• Small impact on carmakers up to 2017.
• Concerning 2030, the development of new motorisations may be compulsory even for carmakers, which
manufacture few diesel vehicles.
 Quick decrease
• Renault-Nissan and PSA should change quickly their engine mix between diesel and gasoline.
• All carmakers should invest quickly in new motorisations in order to keep their market shares.
June 25, 2013
38

39. Impacts of different Scenarios on Carmakers and parts Suppliers
Parts suppliers
 Components impacted by a substitution of diesel by gasoline:
• Fuel supply: high pressure injection pump, tubes for common rail, injectors…
• Air supply: turbochargers, EGR valves, intercooler…
• Engine block: cylinder head, cylinder block…
• Exhaust line: oxidation catalyst, SCR catalyst, particulate filter…
 Components impacted by an increase of hybrid and electric vehicles:
• Electric motor
• Inverter / reducer
• HV battery
• HV cables
June 25, 2013
39

40. Impacts of different Scenarios on Carmakers and parts Suppliers
Parts suppliers
 Consequences for parts suppliers, which produce these components:
• Tier 1 parts suppliers provide components as well for gasoline and diesel:
 For instance: Bosch, Delphi, Denso or Continental for fuel supply.
 For the time being, turbochargers and EGR valves are also used in gasoline engine.
 Faurecia, Teneco, Eberspaecher, etc… supply exhaust lines for both gasoline and diesel engines.
A moderate decrease in diesel in Europe will not change so much the business of these parts suppliers, which have
global markets.
• The suppliers of components for vehicles equipped with electric motors (hybrids, electrics or fuel cell) are different
today, but all the major parts suppliers want to develop their business on this new market, which is growing:
 15 to 20 % of the total market forecast in 2030 in Europe.
 30 % of the total market forecast in 2030 in Japon.
• Tier 2 or 3 parts suppliers will be more concerned by the decrease of diesel vehicles, for instance:
• Suppliers of high pressure tubes for common rail.
• Suppliers of particulate filters.
June 25, 2013
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41. Postal address:
34 rue Camille Pelletan
92300 Levallois-Perret
France
Phone: + 33-952 96 06 68
Contact: info@inovev.com