THE FUTURE OF DIESEL
ENGINE IN EUROPE

Michel Costes
Jamel Taganza
Jean-Michel Prillieux
Jean-Bruno Monteil
info@inovev.co...
Contents
Diesel definition
 Diesel engine and fuel.
 Technology evolution in diesel engines.
Diesel history in Europe
 ...
DEFINITIONS DU DIESEL

DIESEL DEFINITION

June 25, 2013

3
Diesel Engine and Fuel
Diesel engine:





Combustion of a heterogeneous mixture directly injected into the combustion...
Diesel Engine and Fuel
Diesel fuel
 French regulations (example – similar regulations all over Europe)
MEASUREMENTS
Densi...
Technology Evolution in Diesel Engines
Indirect injection

Pre-chamber

Swirl chamber

Direct injection

First car equippe...
Technology Evolution in Diesel Engines
Direct injection with injector pump system
 « Injector pump system » and « pump sy...
Technology Evolution in Diesel Engines
Direct injection with common rail system
 The first series-produced Common Rail Sy...
HISTORIQUE DU DIESEL EN EUROPE

DIESEL HISTORY IN EUROPE

June 25, 2013

9
Diesel History in Europe

Oil supply policy in France in the 50-70s
 Need of use heavy fractions from distillation.
 Con...
DIESEL MARKET

June 25, 2013

11
Market Share in Europe up to 2012 (PC registrations)
Diesel development in the different European countries from 1994 to 2...
Market Share in Europe up to 2012 (PC registrations)
Germany

France

UK

June 25, 2013

Italy

13
Market Share in Europe up to 2012 (PC registrations)
Spain

Belgium

June 25, 2013

Portugal

Netherlands

14
Market Share in Europe up to 2012 by Segments (PC production)
Diesel market share in the main segments
(PC production In E...
Market Share in Europe up to 2012 by Segments (PC production)
Segment C

Segment D
2.62 million
in 2012*
1.42 million in 2...
Market Share in Europe up to 2012 by Carmakers (PC production)
Diesel car market share of main European carmakers between ...
Market Share in Europe up to 2012 by Carmakers (PC production)
RENAULT-NISSAN

VW GROUP
2.25 million in 2011

2.18 million...
European Production by Engine in 2011 (PC+UV)

Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

ENGINE...
1600 DIESEL PSA/FORD
2000 DIESEL VW
1500 DIESEL RENAULT
1600 DIESEL VW
2000 DIESEL PSA/FORD
1300 DIESEL FIAT
2000 DIESEL B...
Diesel Market in the Rest of the World (PC registrations)
Weak development in other regions of the world
 Low penetration...
CURRENT CHANGES
Technical Positioning of Diesel versus other Motorisations
Other motorisation technologies:
 Direct injection gasoline.
...
Strenghtening of European Regulations over time
Convergence of standards between diesel and gasoline over time: Euro III, ...
Strenghtening of European Regulations over time
Convergence of standards between diesel and gasoline over time: Euro III, ...
Technical Positioning of Diesel versus other Motorisations

Comparison gasoline / diesel
 Other factors: toxicity, noise,...
Technical Positioning of Diesel versus other Motorisations
Threats on diesel:
 Increasing cost of depollution in diesel e...
SCENARIOS ABOUT DIESEL ENGINE FUTURE

June 25, 2013

28
Our different Scenarios

Scenarios
 Two main scenarios, which depend on:
• Political choices in France and in Europe.
• I...
Market Share in Europe up to 2017 by Segments (PC production)
Diesel market share in the main segments
(PC production In E...
Market Share in Europe up to 2017 by Segments (PC production)
Segment C

Segment D
2.62 million
in 2012*
1.42 million in 2...
Market Share in Europe up to 2017 by Carmakers (PC production)
Diesel car market share of the main European carmakers betw...
Market Share in Europe up to 2017 by Carmakers (PC production)
RENAULT-NISSAN

VW GROUP
2.25 million in 2011

2.18 million...
Forecast for Europe in 2017
Forecast 2017
 Decrease of diesel market share in Europe: from 55 % in 2012 to 48 % in 2017

...
Forecast for Europe in 2030
Forecast 2030
 Decrease of diesel market share in Europe: from 55 % in 2012 to 35 % in 2030

...
Forecast in Europe for 2017 and 2030: Comparison of our two Scenarios

2012

2017

2017

2030

2030

Slow decrease

Quick ...
Market share of different motorisation: Comparison Europe / Japan

2012

2012

2017

2017

2030

2030

EUROPE

JAPAN

EURO...
Impacts of different Scenarios on Carmakers and Parts Suppliers
Carmakers
 Diesel market share of European carmakers:
• R...
Impacts of different Scenarios on Carmakers and parts Suppliers
Parts suppliers
 Components impacted by a substitution of...
Impacts of different Scenarios on Carmakers and parts Suppliers
Parts suppliers
 Consequences for parts suppliers, which ...
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92300 Levallois-Perret
France

Phone: + 33-952 96 06 68
Contact: info@inovev.com
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What future for the diesel engine in Europe? Impacts of different futures scenarios on carmakers and suppliers

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Presentation of the main issues relating to diesel engines development in Europe:
- Origins of diesel in France and Europe.
- Diesel technical positioning compared to other engine technologies.
- Quantities evolution of diesel engine in Europe in 2020.
- Impacts of different futures scenarios on car makers and suppliers.

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What future for the diesel engine in Europe? Impacts of different futures scenarios on carmakers and suppliers

  1. 1. THE FUTURE OF DIESEL ENGINE IN EUROPE Michel Costes Jamel Taganza Jean-Michel Prillieux Jean-Bruno Monteil info@inovev.com 25/6/2013 Diesel-F-20130625 http://www.inovev.com
  2. 2. Contents Diesel definition  Diesel engine and fuel.  Technology evolution in diesel engines. Diesel history in Europe  Oil supply strategy and policy in France in the 50-70s. Need of use heavy fractions from distillation. Consequent Implementation of tax differential between diesel and gasoline fuel.  Diesel development in France and in Europe from 1994 up to 2012. Diesel market in Europe and in the rest of the world  Market share in Europe from 1994 up to 2012. • 27 countries of European Union and main countries: Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Netherlands. • By segments: A, B, C, D, E, SUV. • By carmakers: BMW, Daimler, VW, Renault-Nissan, PSA, FIAT.  Diesel market in the rest of the world. Current changes  Comparison of emissions : CO2, CO, NOX, PM, Others. Strengthening of European regulations: EuroV, EuroVI.  Other factors : toxicology, noise (internal, external), driving comfort, …  Conclusion: threats on diesel. Scenarios relating to diesel engine future  Forecast from 2013 to 2017 • By segments: A, B, C, D, E, SUV. • By carmakers: BMW, Daimler, VW, Renault-Nissan, PSA, FIAT. • European forecast for 2017 and 2030 .  Impacts on carmakers and parts suppliers: impacted components by change of diesel/gasoline/hybrid/electric engines ratio; consequences for parts suppliers, which produce these components. June 25, 2013 2
  3. 3. DEFINITIONS DU DIESEL DIESEL DEFINITION June 25, 2013 3
  4. 4. Diesel Engine and Fuel Diesel engine:     Combustion of a heterogeneous mixture directly injected into the combustion chamber. Self-ignited fuel. Load adjusted by varying the amount of injected fuel, the mass of admitted air being substantially unchanged . Strong excess of air in the mixture. Diesel fuel:  Mixture of hydrocarbons from mineral oil or synthesis and possibly methyl ester of fatty acid  Ignition by compression June 25, 2013 4
  5. 5. Diesel Engine and Fuel Diesel fuel  French regulations (example – similar regulations all over Europe) MEASUREMENTS Density at 15° C 820 to 845 kg/m3 Distillation % recovered at 250° C Less than 65 % Distillation % recovered at 350° C 85 % minimum Viscosity at 40 ° C 2 to 4.5 mm²/s Sulfur content Maximum 10 mg/kg Water content Maximum 200 mg/kg Overall contamination Maximum 24 mg/kg Ash content Maximum 0.01 % Measured cetane index Minimum 51 % Calculated cetane index Minimum 46 % Flashpoint More than 55°C Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons 8 % maximum Content in methylic ester of fatty acid June 25, 2013 SPECIFICATIONS 7 % maximum 5
  6. 6. Technology Evolution in Diesel Engines Indirect injection Pre-chamber Swirl chamber Direct injection First car equipped: FIAT Croma in 1988 Indirect injection versus direct injection • Advantages for indirect injection: less noisy, weaker NOx emissions. • Advantages for direct injection: better combustion, quicker start. June 25, 2013 6
  7. 7. Technology Evolution in Diesel Engines Direct injection with injector pump system  « Injector pump system » and « pump system » are based on the same concept: one pump injector nozzle for each cylinder. These systems are mainly known for their outstanding performance: good acceleration and fuel savings. Pump injectors are included in cylinder heads and are driven by camshaft. These systems enable a better adjustment and a higher pressure (up to 2,050 bar) Source: BOSCH June 25, 2013 First car equipped: VW Golf in 1993 7
  8. 8. Technology Evolution in Diesel Engines Direct injection with common rail system  The first series-produced Common Rail System was marketed by Bosch in 1997. The system sources its name from the high-pressure accumulator (Common Rail) which supplies all the cylinders with fuel. While other diesel injection systems generate the fuel pressure for each injection separately, the Common Rail System separates pressure generation and injection from one another. The fuel is constantly available at the pressure required for injection. The Common Rail System is modular in design. The right combination of high-pressure pump, injectors, rail and electronic control unit results in systems for all types of vehicle from the smallest passenger cars right up to the heaviest luxury limousine. The range of high-pressure pumps covers pressures from 1,100 bar to 2,200 bar. First car equipped: ALFA ROMEO 156 in 1997 Source: BOSCH June 25, 2013 8
  9. 9. HISTORIQUE DU DIESEL EN EUROPE DIESEL HISTORY IN EUROPE June 25, 2013 9
  10. 10. Diesel History in Europe Oil supply policy in France in the 50-70s  Need of use heavy fractions from distillation.  Consequent Implementation of tax differential between diesel and gasoline fuel.  This advantageous taxation combined with the better diesel engine led to increase slowly the market share of diesel until 1990. Development of diesel in Europe from 1990 to now resulting from following factors:  Technical development: • indirect injection towards direct injection at the end of 80s (FIAT). • direct injection with injector pump system at the beginning of 90s (VW). • direct injection with common rail system at the end of 90s (Bosch).  Strategy and policy of carmakers: diesel cars are more expensive (10 to 15 %), the overcost can be balanced by savings on fuel (price and fuel consumption).  Tax incentives: • In 2013, the fuel tax in France is 0.4284 € per liter of diesel fuel against 0.6069 € per liter of unleaded gasoline 95 and 98. • Nevertheless, the gap between customer price of diesel and gasoline fuel is decreasing due to the increase of diesel fuel cost price (fuel price at the exit of refineries). June 25, 2013 10
  11. 11. DIESEL MARKET June 25, 2013 11
  12. 12. Market Share in Europe up to 2012 (PC registrations) Diesel development in the different European countries from 1994 to 2012.  Diesel car registrations in the European Union 27 countries (in volume):  In 2011: 7.6 million of passenger cars and 1.3 million of light utility vehicles.  In 2012: 6.9 million of passenger cars and 1.2 million of light utility vehicles.  Registrations in market share - only passenger cars: - Germany - France - Belgium - United Kingdom - Italy - Netherlands - Spain - Portugal Europe 27 June 25, 2013 12
  13. 13. Market Share in Europe up to 2012 (PC registrations) Germany France UK June 25, 2013 Italy 13
  14. 14. Market Share in Europe up to 2012 (PC registrations) Spain Belgium June 25, 2013 Portugal Netherlands 14
  15. 15. Market Share in Europe up to 2012 by Segments (PC production) Diesel market share in the main segments (PC production In Europe between 1998 and 2012*) :  Segment A  Segment B  Segment C  Segment D  Segment E  Segment SUV  Total production in Europe was 7.9 million of diesel PC in 2012* Segment A All Segments 7.9 million in 2012* 8 million in 2011 Segment B 1.82 million in 2012* 0.14 million in 2012* 1.84 million in 2011 0.14 million in 2011 2012* : Estimated figures June 25, 2013 15
  16. 16. Market Share in Europe up to 2012 by Segments (PC production) Segment C Segment D 2.62 million in 2012* 1.42 million in 2011 2.69 million in 2011 Segment E Segment SUV 0.62 million in 2012* 1.25 million in 2011 0.64 million in 2011 2012* : Estimated figures June 25, 2013 1.28 million in 2012* 16 1.4 million in 2012*
  17. 17. Market Share in Europe up to 2012 by Carmakers (PC production) Diesel car market share of main European carmakers between 1998 and 2012:  BMW Group (BMW + Mini)  DAIMLER Group (Mercedes + Smart)  VW Group (Audi + Seat + Skoda + VW)  RENAULT-NISSAN Group (Dacia + Nissan + Renault)  PSA Group (Peugeot + Citroën)  FIAT Group (FIAT + Alfa + Lancia) These automotive groups produced 6.7 million of diesel PC in Europe in 2012*. Moreover, FORD Europe and GM Europe produced 0.8 million of diesel PC in 2012*. Other carmakers (Japanese, Korean, Indian, Chinese groups) produced 0.4 million of diesel PC. Total production in Europe was 7.9 million of diesel PC in 2012*. 2012* : Estimated figures BMW GROUP 0.54 million in 2012* DAIMLER 0.51 million in 2012* 0.58 million in 2011 0.46 million in 2011 June 25, 2013 17
  18. 18. Market Share in Europe up to 2012 by Carmakers (PC production) RENAULT-NISSAN VW GROUP 2.25 million in 2011 2.18 million in 2012* 1.53 million in 2011 1.46 million in 2012* FIAT GROUP PSA 0.52 million in 2012* 1.46 million in 2011 1.47 million in 2012* 0.57 million in 2011 2012* : Estimated figures June 25, 2013 18
  19. 19. European Production by Engine in 2011 (PC+UV) Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 ENGINE FAMILY 1600 DIESEL PSA/FORD 2000 DIESEL VW 1500 DIESEL RENAULT 1600 DIESEL VW 2000 DIESEL PSA/FORD 1300 DIESEL FIAT 2000 DIESEL BMW 1400 DIESEL PSA/FORD 2200 DIESEL MERCEDES 2000 DIESEL FIAT 1700 DIESEL GM 2000 DIESEL RENAULT 3000 DIESEL VW 1200 DIESEL VW 2400 DIESEL VOLVO 2500 DIESEL RENAULT 1900 DIESEL RENAULT 2200 DIESEL PSA/FORD 3000 DIESEL BMW 2800 DIESEL FIAT 2000 DIESEL KIA 2000 DIESEL TOYOTA 1600 DIESEL FIAT 2300 DIESEL FIAT CC PROD 2011 Rank 1560 1968 1461 1598 1997 1248 1995 1398 2148 1956 1686 1995 2967 1198 2401 2495 1870 2179 2993 2800 1991 1995 1598 2300 1181152 1155542 1121134 777845 632799 523226 437283 294642 245823 181720 178511 160572 138625 123818 114773 111736 108795 91305 85475 81580 80244 78206 73785 70034 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 ENGINE FAMILY 3000 DIESEL MERCEDES 2200 DIESEL HONDA 2000 DIESEL VOLVO 1400 DIESEL TOYOTA 3000 DIESEL FORD/PSA 2000 DIESEL MERCEDES 1600 DIESEL BMW 2700 DIESEL FORD/PSA 2500 DIESEL FORD 1600 DIESEL KIA 2500 DIESEL NISSAN 2500 DIESEL VW 2200 DIESEL TOYOTA 3000 DIESEL RENAULT 1900 DIESEL FIAT 4400 DIESEL FORD 3000 DIESEL FIAT 2700 DIESEL VW 1800 DIESEL MERCEDES 800 DIESEL SMART 4200 DIESEL VW 1600 DIESEL RENAULT 1500 DIESEL MITSUBISHI 2400 DIESEL FIAT 19 CC PROD 2011 2987 2204 1984 1364 2993 1991 1600 2720 2496 1582 2488 2459 2231 2993 1910 4367 3000 2698 1796 799 4134 1598 1493 2387 69068 67993 61751 60888 57015 55105 47952 47654 46313 43071 40628 38411 35776 29097 29089 24591 20941 16410 10795 10199 8276 7500 5903 1472
  20. 20. 1600 DIESEL PSA/FORD 2000 DIESEL VW 1500 DIESEL RENAULT 1600 DIESEL VW 2000 DIESEL PSA/FORD 1300 DIESEL FIAT 2000 DIESEL BMW 1400 DIESEL PSA/FORD 2200 DIESEL MERCEDES 2000 DIESEL FIAT 1700 DIESEL GM 2000 DIESEL RENAULT 3000 DIESEL VW 1200 DIESEL VW 2400 DIESEL VOLVO 2500 DIESEL RENAULT 1900 DIESEL RENAULT 2200 DIESEL PSA/FORD 3000 DIESEL BMW 2800 DIESEL FIAT 2000 DIESEL KIA 2000 DIESEL TOYOTA 1600 DIESEL FIAT 2300 DIESEL FIAT 3000 DIESEL MERCEDES 2200 DIESEL HONDA 2000 DIESEL VOLVO 1400 DIESEL TOYOTA 3000 DIESEL FORD/PSA 2000 DIESEL MERCEDES 1600 DIESEL BMW 2700 DIESEL FORD/PSA 2500 DIESEL FORD 1600 DIESEL KIA 2500 DIESEL NISSAN 2500 DIESEL VW 2200 DIESEL TOYOTA 3000 DIESEL RENAULT 1900 DIESEL FIAT 4400 DIESEL FORD 3000 DIESEL FIAT 2700 DIESEL VW 1800 DIESEL MERCEDES 800 DIESEL SMART 4200 DIESEL VW 1600 DIESEL RENAULT 1500 DIESEL MITSUBISHI 2400 DIESEL FIAT European Production by Engine (PC+UV) 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 June 25, 2013 20
  21. 21. Diesel Market in the Rest of the World (PC registrations) Weak development in other regions of the world  Low penetration of diesel in the rest of the world.  Lobby due to oil companies.  Lean burn engine in Japan. Although it has almost doubled in Australia, Brazil and the USA over the last ten years, the diesel market share remains marginal in these countries. In Japan, however, the government has the idea to make the diesel market increase to about 5% (while it is currently close to zero). Expensive hybrid vehicles would be then replaced by less expensive diesel vehicles. It will however be difficult for diesel vehicles to reach such a market share in a country where diesel has been banned since the 60s. Europe currently accounts for 85% world diesel market of passenger cars. Worldwide diesel PC market share June 25, 2013 21
  22. 22. CURRENT CHANGES
  23. 23. Technical Positioning of Diesel versus other Motorisations Other motorisation technologies:  Direct injection gasoline.  Traditional gasoline.  Electric.  Hybrid.  Fuel cell. Comparison gasoline / diesel:  Engine consumption (CO2): • Objective of the European Commission for 2015: 130 g/km; objective for 2020: 95 g/km . • For same power output, traditional gasoline engines produce more CO2 compared to diesel engines: 15 to 20% according to carmakers data. • For direct injection gasoline engines, the gap is weaker: 0 to 15 % according to carmakers data. VW Group is the leader in the development of these engines, which are used in Golf, Passat, A1, A3 and A4.  Pollution: CO, NOx, Particulates, unburnt hydrocarbons: • CO and unburnt hydrocarbons: advantage to diesel. • Particulates and NOx : advantage to gasoline.  Strengthening of European regulations over time (following slides). June 25, 2013 23
  24. 24. Strenghtening of European Regulations over time Convergence of standards between diesel and gasoline over time: Euro III, Euro IV, Euro V, Euro VI (emissions in mg/km without for number of particulates) Diesel cars Standards Euro 1 Euro 2 Nitrogen oxides (NOx) - - 500 250 180 80 Nitrogen oxides (NOx) Carbon Monoxide (CO) 2720 1000 640 500 500 500 Carbon monoxide (CO) Hydrocarbons (HC) - - - - - - Non methane hydrocarbons (HCNM) Euro 3 Gasoline cars Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6 Standards Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6 - - 150 80 60 60 2720 2200 2200 1000 1000 1000 Hydrocarbons (HC) - - 200 100 100 100 Non methane hydrocarbons (HCNM) - - - - 68 68 - - - - - - HC + NOX 970 900 560 300 230 170 HC + NOX - - - - - - Particulates (PM) 140 100 50 25 5 4.5 Particulates (PM) - - - - 5(*) 4.5(*) - - - - 6×1011 6×1011 Particulates (PN) (#/km) - - - - - 6×1011 Particulates (PN) (#/km) * For direct injection gasoline June 25, 2013 24
  25. 25. Strenghtening of European Regulations over time Convergence of standards between diesel and gasoline over time: Euro III, Euro IV, Euro V, Euro VI Emissions in mg/km June 25, 2013 25
  26. 26. Technical Positioning of Diesel versus other Motorisations Comparison gasoline / diesel  Other factors: toxicity, noise, driving comfort, etc… • In 2010, American Heart Association has underscored a relationship between exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. • noise treatment is more important in diesel vehicles, which increases their cost. • Today, there is no big difference in driving comfort. Competition with new motorisations  Gasoline hybrids: Smaller gasoline consumption than traditional gasoline engines. No big use in Europe due to diesel competition.  Electric vehicles: No direct pollution, less noise, possibility of loading cars locally (no need to go to the gasoline station for short trip users). June 25, 2013 26
  27. 27. Technical Positioning of Diesel versus other Motorisations Threats on diesel:  Increasing cost of depollution in diesel engines with Euro VI: particulate filter and NOx catalyst: • Particulate filters have been and are widely used in order to comply with Euro V. Some improvements are in progress in order to filter smaller and more toxic particles. • Selective NOx reduction catalysts should be used in order to pass Euro VI standards in September 2015 (SCR systems with added urea).  Health concern: • According to a World Health Organisation statement in 2012, emissions of fine particles present in exhaust gases of diesel engines would have a carcinogenic effect. • European Union has fixed a limit value for “PM2.5” at 25 µg/m3 of air in 2015, then at 20 µg/m3 in 2020.  Impact on economics: • Deficits of trade balance of European countries due to diesel fuel importations: In France for instance, this deficit accounts for € 13 billion by year i.e. 20% of the total deficit of the country. • Loss in taxes for European countries. June 25, 2013 27
  28. 28. SCENARIOS ABOUT DIESEL ENGINE FUTURE June 25, 2013 28
  29. 29. Our different Scenarios Scenarios  Two main scenarios, which depend on: • Political choices in France and in Europe. • Influences of the different lobbies.  Scenario 1: Slow decrease: • Progressive change in taxes. • Low market shares for hybrid and electric vehicles in 2030. • Likely scenario.  Scenario 2: Faster decrease: • Quick increase of taxes on diesel fuel. • Higher penetration of the alternative motorisations in 2030. • Less likely scenario. June 25, 2013 29
  30. 30. Market Share in Europe up to 2017 by Segments (PC production) Diesel market share in the main segments (PC production In Europe between 1998 and 2017) :  Segment A  Segment B  Segment C  Segment D  Segment E  Segment SUV  Total production in Europe was 7.9 million of diesel PC in 2012* Segment A All Segments 7.9 million in 2012* 8 million in 2011 Segment B 1.82 million in 2012* 0.14 million in 2012* 1.84 million in 2011 0.14 million in 2011 2012* : Estimated figures June 25, 2013 30
  31. 31. Market Share in Europe up to 2017 by Segments (PC production) Segment C Segment D 2.62 million in 2012* 1.42 million in 2011 2.69 million in 2011 Segment E Segment SUV 0.62 million in 2012* 1.25 million in 2011 0.64 million in 2011 2012* : Estimated figures June 25, 2013 1.28 million in 2012* 31 1.4 million in 2012*
  32. 32. Market Share in Europe up to 2017 by Carmakers (PC production) Diesel car market share of the main European carmakers between 1998 in 2017:  BMW Group (BMW + Mini).  DAIMLER Group (Mercedes + Smart).  VW Group (Audi + Seat + Skoda + VW).  RENAULT-NISSAN Group (Dacia + Nissan + Renault).  PSA Group (Peugeot + Citroën).  FIAT Group (FIAT + Alfa + Lancia). These automotive groups produced 6.7 million of diesel PC in Europe in 2012*. In addition, FORD and GM Europe produced 0.8 million of diesel PC diesel. Finally, other carmakers (Japanese, Korean, Indian, Chinese groups) produced 0.4 million of diesel PC. Total production in Europe was 7.9 million of diesel PC in 2012*. 2012* : Estimated figures BMW GROUP 0.54 million in 2012* DAIMLER 0.51 million in 2012* 0.58 million in 2011 0.46 million in 2011 June 25, 2013 32
  33. 33. Market Share in Europe up to 2017 by Carmakers (PC production) RENAULT-NISSAN VW GROUP 2.25 million in 2011 2.18 million in 2012* 1.53 million in 2011 1.46 million in 2012* FIAT GROUP PSA 0.52 million in 2012* 1.46 million in 2011 1.47 million in 2012* 0.57 million in 2011 2012* : Estimated figures June 25, 2013 33
  34. 34. Forecast for Europe in 2017 Forecast 2017  Decrease of diesel market share in Europe: from 55 % in 2012 to 48 % in 2017  The ratio of diesel vehicles produced in Europe has increased until 2004 (53%), and then was flat. After a drop in 2009, this ratio has reached again the same level, but should decline under 50% during the coming years (in 2016 or 2017). June 25, 2013 34
  35. 35. Forecast for Europe in 2030 Forecast 2030  Decrease of diesel market share in Europe: from 55 % in 2012 to 35 % in 2030  The strong developments in direct injection gasoline engines, and in electric and hybrid vehicles, combined with stringent standards on diesel engines and decrease in the price gap between gasoline and diesel fuel should lead to a continuous decrease of diesel between today and 2030. June 25, 2013 35
  36. 36. Forecast in Europe for 2017 and 2030: Comparison of our two Scenarios 2012 2017 2017 2030 2030 Slow decrease Quick decrease Slow decrease Quick decrease GASOLINE 44 49 50 50 50 DIESEL 55 48 45 35 30 1 3 5 15 20 HYBRIDS ELECTRICS MISCELLANEOUS June 25, 2013 36
  37. 37. Market share of different motorisation: Comparison Europe / Japan 2012 2012 2017 2017 2030 2030 EUROPE JAPAN EUROPE JAPAN EUROPE JAPAN GASOLINE 44 88 49 82 50 65 DIESEL 55 0 48 0 35 5 HYBRIDS ELECTRICS MISCELLANEOUS 12 1 0,3 0 15 3 20 3 15 0 1 Sources : INOVEV for Europe, METI for Japan June 25, 2013 10 37
  38. 38. Impacts of different Scenarios on Carmakers and Parts Suppliers Carmakers  Diesel market share of European carmakers: • Renault-Nissan and PSA manufacture more diesel vehicles than the other European carmakers. • BMW and Daimler produce few diesel vehicles.  Slow decrease • Small impact on carmakers up to 2017. • Concerning 2030, the development of new motorisations may be compulsory even for carmakers, which manufacture few diesel vehicles.  Quick decrease • Renault-Nissan and PSA should change quickly their engine mix between diesel and gasoline. • All carmakers should invest quickly in new motorisations in order to keep their market shares. June 25, 2013 38
  39. 39. Impacts of different Scenarios on Carmakers and parts Suppliers Parts suppliers  Components impacted by a substitution of diesel by gasoline: • Fuel supply: high pressure injection pump, tubes for common rail, injectors… • Air supply: turbochargers, EGR valves, intercooler… • Engine block: cylinder head, cylinder block… • Exhaust line: oxidation catalyst, SCR catalyst, particulate filter…  Components impacted by an increase of hybrid and electric vehicles: • Electric motor • Inverter / reducer • HV battery • HV cables June 25, 2013 39
  40. 40. Impacts of different Scenarios on Carmakers and parts Suppliers Parts suppliers  Consequences for parts suppliers, which produce these components: • Tier 1 parts suppliers provide components as well for gasoline and diesel:  For instance: Bosch, Delphi, Denso or Continental for fuel supply.  For the time being, turbochargers and EGR valves are also used in gasoline engine.  Faurecia, Teneco, Eberspaecher, etc… supply exhaust lines for both gasoline and diesel engines. A moderate decrease in diesel in Europe will not change so much the business of these parts suppliers, which have global markets. • The suppliers of components for vehicles equipped with electric motors (hybrids, electrics or fuel cell) are different today, but all the major parts suppliers want to develop their business on this new market, which is growing:  15 to 20 % of the total market forecast in 2030 in Europe.  30 % of the total market forecast in 2030 in Japon. • Tier 2 or 3 parts suppliers will be more concerned by the decrease of diesel vehicles, for instance: • Suppliers of high pressure tubes for common rail. • Suppliers of particulate filters. June 25, 2013 40
  41. 41. Postal address: 34 rue Camille Pelletan 92300 Levallois-Perret France Phone: + 33-952 96 06 68 Contact: info@inovev.com

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