Economist - Industries in 2010

THE WORLD IN 2010 113 The world in figures: Industries Automotive 113 Energy 114 Health care 115 Property and Telecoms 116 For an interactive version Consumer goods 113 Entertainment 114 Information technology 115 construction 116 Travel and tourism 116 of these pages, go to: Defence 113 Financial services 114 Media 115 Raw materials 116 www.economist.com/ E-commerce 114 Food and farming 115 theworldin BusIness envIronmenT AuTomoTIve To watch. The two-wheeler. GM and To watch: E-reader wars. The Facebook Segway are developing a two-wheeled, generation will move from hardbacks highly manoeuvrable vehicle aimed at to online e-readers as prices start to World GDP and trade drivers in congested cities. Dubbed the drop. New devices will allow easy access World GDP growth (real terms, at PPP), % PUMA (Personal Urban Mobility and to blogs and shopping sites, as well as World trade growth ($ value), % Accessibility), the prototype seats two, books. The Eee Reader, from Taiwan’s 4.6 5.2 CLoudY FAIr sunnY runs on batteries and can perform zero- Asus, will have two screens, a hinged 3.7 3.8 radius turns. Once parked, more wheels spine, a web cam and a microphone for 3.2 3.4 After surviving the most difficult year drop down to keep the 136kg vehicle Skype. 2009 in its history, the global auto industry from falling over. -1.5 2010 2011 2012 will start to recover in 2010. Global deFenCe car registrations will rise by 4.7%, led Consumer goods by Asia and the US. Sales will shrink, however, in western Europe, where a combination of state support and savage production cuts will ensure that much of the industry survives in more or less its CLoudY FAIr sunnY -9.4 current form. In the US, a smaller, leaner CLoudY FAIr sunnY General Motors (owned by the US and US defence spending will exceed half a The worst of the economic downturn Canadian governments, bondholders Rich-country consumers, battered by trillion dollars in 2010, even as the war may be over, but the Economist and a big union) should return to profit job losses and depressed home prices, in Iraq winds down. The cost of fighting Intelligence Unit expects still subdued within two years. Chrysler (controlled will remain tight-fisted, putting further in Afghanistan will, for the first time, growth in 2010. Global output will by Fiat, a union and the US government) pressure on retailers to think globally. exceed that in Iraq: $65bn to $61bn. Yet expand by only 3.2% (on a purchasing- will also be in a stronger position once China—no surprise—will be the none of this is included in the baseline power parity, or PPP, basis), well below demand recovers. Ford could be in the biggest prize among emerging markets, defence budget of $534bn (a 4% the 5% recorded in 2007. What growth most trouble if credit remains scarce. with retail-sales volume likely to rise increase on 2009). US military spending the world can muster will come from by almost 9%. The government is keen will be around 40% of the global total, large stimulus programmes, improving With sales in Japan and most of Europe for China’s consumers to spend more, to seven to eight times more than China’s, private-sector confidence and increased still under pressure, the brightest spots lessen the country’s unhealthy reliance the secretive number two. financial stabilisation. Even so, richer for carmakers will be China, Latin on exports and investment. Globally, To help with the fight against the countries—where most of the damage retail sales will climb by a mere 1.7%. Passenger-car registrations Taliban and al-Qaeda, Pakistan will was done—will expand by a mere m The appetite for discount brands will receive $1.5bn in military and financial 1.7%. Emerging economies will grow by Asia and Australasia remain strong. The world’s largest aid during the next five years. Israel a more encouraging 5.2%. 17.5 retailer, Wal-Mart, which opened its alone will receive $2.8bn in 2010, partly China, as ever, will lead the developing North America to finance the Arrow ballistic missile world. Rising spending, especially on 11.3 first store in India in partnership with Western Europe Bharti Group in 2009, plans to open a defence system, designed with Iran in infrastructure, will help the economy to grow by around 8.6%. What is good for Latin America 10.7 further ten by 2011. The largest footwear mind. China is good for Brazil: a vibrant Middle 3.1 retailer in the US, Collective Brands, will Encouraged by a thaw in relations Eastern Europe and Russia open its first shops in Russia and across with the North, perhaps, but driven by Kingdom will lift demand for Brazilian 2.7 commodity exports. Middle East and Africa the Middle East in 2010 under its Payless economic imperatives, South Korea will 0.7 ShoeSource brand. boost spending on defence by 3.8% in Global trade will remain weak in 2010, 2010, about half the increase initially growing by 3.7%. The Doha trade talks For manufacturers, product innovation announced. will resume but will yield little as America and India, where car sales will will be essential. Consumer-electronics firms expect a surge in demand for Russia will spend Rb470bn ($16.4bn) governments safeguard fragile domestic climb by 13%, 5% and 8%, respectively. high-definition (HD) televisions ahead on new weapons and infrastructure in economies. Protectionist legislation will Eastern Europe’s prospects remain bleak. be less of a threat, but countries may of the 2010 FIFA World Cup. Super-thin, 2010, part of a military budget of around Despite lower oil prices, carmakers are ultra-sharp OLED (Organic Light- $35bn. Although Russia will devote 40% raise trade barriers legally, as tariffs in investing in fuel-saving technologies. Emitting Diode) HDTV screens will hit of spending to its navy, the combat- most countries are below WTO limits. Uncertainty over which ones will work the market in a big way in 2010, aimed readiness of ground forces, especially in Interest rates will stay low. Although best means R&D will be spread widely. the volatile region near Georgia, will be credit will be more available for larger at early adopters. With video-game By the end of 2010, electric cars won’t consoles now a saturated market, a focus. firms, smaller fry will still go wanting. be just for trips to local shops. By 2015, manufacturers will find it hard to eke To watch: The US navy wants to use a faster crowd—Lamborghini and out profits from a once-booming sector. high-powered lasers against small boats 2010 forecasts unless otherwise indicated. Ferrari—will have joined the game. World totals based on 51 countries accounting Japan’s Nintendo, maker of Wii, expects manned by terrorists wielding rocket- for over 95% of world GDP. The industry’s troubles have not put to sell 26m units globally in the 12 propelled grenades. Northrop Grumman off new players. Geely, China’s biggest months to March 2010, scarcely more has a $98m contract for the project, and Source: privately owned car firm, plans to launch than the previous year. A price war with by the end of 2010 should have installed nine new models by end-2010 and up to Microsoft’s Xbox and Sony’s PlayStation a prototype of the laser on a ship for london@eiu.com 42 by 2015, when output will reach 2m. 3 looks unavoidable. testing on remote-controlled vessels.

114 Industries The world in figures THE WORLD IN 2010 International Energy Agency (IEA) says it worth 185bn rupees ($4bn) by 2013. Whatever the shortfalls of the UN climate-change 2010 In FoCus will be another 20 years before biofuels India’s television industry will enjoy only summit in Copenhagen, the global carbon market, worldwide make up even 5% of the slightly slower growth, at 11.4%, but will which was unfettered by recession, will advance in total liquid-fuels market. Overall, the IEA be worth much more. More than half of 2010. According to Point Carbon, a private firm, 4.1 expects that primary energy demand that revenue will come from distribution gigatonnes were traded in the first half of 2009, up met from renewable sources will rise to deals at home and, increasingly, from 124% in volume terms. Indeed, recession helped to 10% in 2030 from 7% in 2006. abroad. Meanwhile, the Motion Picture spur the carbon market as industry increased trading of surplus CO2 allowances, even at lower carbon To watch. Pee power. The most common Association of America projects that prices. The European Union still dominated the world energy source in the universe, hydrogen, international markets will account for carbon market in 2009, accounting for 75% of its is difficult to produce, store and transport. two-thirds of the total box office of Scientists at Ohio University have found Hollywood films. value, so the introduction of a US emissions-trading market will turbo-charge growth. Warnings of a that cheap quantities of hydrogen gas To watch: Another dimension. Some carbon-derivatives bubble are already being heard. are released when they put a specially 20 films will be released in 3D format designed nickel electrode into a pool in 2010. As more cinemas convert to of urine and apply an electrical current. the technology, it will go mainstream travel and tourism, will reach $30bn in Converting the urine of one cow can within three to five years. The Blu-ray e-CommerCe 2010, according to Visa, up from $11bn supply hot water for 19 houses. Disc is likely to be the preferred medium in 2007. Brazil’s online sales will rise for at-home 3D consumption. Glasses- by 40% in 2010, helped by a relatively Oil price based technologies will dominate the limited choice of goods in traditional Brent, $/barrel market for 3D-capable displays, but will stores. 80 soon be superseded by autostereoscopic CLoudY FAIr sunnY 74 (“glasses-less”) offerings. To watch. E-books go mainstream. 70 Although they will account for less 62 After contracting by 3.1% in 2009, US than 3% of overall book sales in 2010, FInAnCIAL servICes retail e-commerce sales—excluding downloading books will become almost travel, digital downloads and event as popular as music and video downloads tickets—will grow by 5.5% in 2010, over the next few years as book-reading to $135.2bn, according to a research software improves. firm, eMarketer. Pent-up demand will boost sales further in 2011, with growth CLoudY FAIr sunnY peaking at 11% a year later. Beyond energY that, the maturity of the market will 2009 2010 2011 2012 Big Western banks will continue to be reflected in a gradual decline in stabilise in 2010, but profit margins growth rates—a trend that was obvious will remain thin, in part because before the recession. Even so, Forrester enTerTAInmenT regulators will insist on stricter capital Research, another consultancy, predicts CLoudY FAIr sunnY requirements. Coupled with weak online sales will grab an increasing share economic growth, the world’s financial of total retail spending in the US, rising Green energy may be all the rage, but sector will shrink further as demand for to 8% by 2012 from 6% two years earlier. coal continues to power the world’s new borrowing remains soft. Interest The real commercial power of the online biggest emerging markets. Demand CLoudY FAIr sunnY rates will remain low by historical world lies not in transactions but in from China and India will make coal standards for much of 2010 as central information-gathering. Store sales the fastest-growing fuel in 2010, with After contracting slightly in 2009, global banks give the global economy a chance influenced by online research will be world consumption rising by 3.3% spending on entertainment will grow to regain its footing. three times greater than e-commerce from the year before. “Chindia” will by only 0.4% in 2010 before picking After dropping by 9.5% in 2009, new purchases, says eMarketer. account for more than 80% of that up to a still-lacklustre 3.2% in 2011, bank loans will rise by 5.9% globally Around 2.2bn people will be using growth. Coal demand in more developed says PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). in 2010, which in inflation-adjusted the internet by 2013, 17% of them in countries will decline as cleaner energy Some regions will perform much better, terms will amount to less than it China, Forrester notes. The burgeoning technologies become economically though: if Japan is removed from the looks. Saturated markets and tighter e-commerce industry in the world’s viable. China will be less eco-conscious. Asia-Pacific mix, the region will enjoy a regulations at home will encourage most populous country will grow by The world’s largest consumer of coal will compound annual growth rate (CAGR) large, global banks to shift their 28.3% year-on-year in 2010, according have about 700,000MW of installed coal- of 7.1% through to 2013. The real shift attention to emerging markets, where to IDC, another research provider. Given fired capacity by 2011, around 38% of will be in the way consumers pay for the financial meltdown had less impact. the lower start-up costs for an online the world’s total. their entertainment. Worldwide, end- The need for conventional financing and shopfront, the number of Chinese users Global demand for oil will rise by only user spending through mobile digital simple savings products remains strong trading on e-business platforms could 1.1% in 2010 because of sluggish platforms will account for 78% of market in most developing economies. reach 100m by 2012. economic growth. But oil prices will growth over the forecast period. The year will also be a good one for Latin America will have to harmonise its recover as the world economy emerges Streaming mobile music services and asset managers, thanks to ageing laws to make the most of e-commerce. from recession; North Sea Brent, the full-track downloads will lead the populations and the sharp decline of But, even so, its online sales, including European benchmark, will average $74 a way. They will be helped by an ever- final-salary pension schemes. Exchanges barrel, up from $62 in 2009. expanding variety of applications and will scramble to capture some of the Global broadband subscriber lines In the US, the Obama administration’s content, all-inclusive data packages, trading and clearing activity in the m green initiatives will be subject to consumer-friendly front ends and enormous over-the-counter derivatives continuing compromise in Congress. expanding handset storage capacity. market; governments are pushing for 2008 396 The twin goals of an emissions cap Worth $2.5bn in 2009, the market more of this activity to be conducted on 2009 and a fully fledged carbon market are will grow to nearly $5.5bn by 2013, centralised, public exchanges. After a 467 likely to succeed. Sales of liquid biofuels according to Juniper Research. terrible 2009, private-equity firms will 2010 531 will continue to grow by double digits India’s Bollywood is projected to grow find more quality buy-out opportunities 2011 in 2010 in wealthy economies, but at a CAGR of 11.6% over the next five in 2010, but the share of equity in deals 588 their impact will remain limited. The years, according to PwC, and will be will be higher than in previous years.

THE WORLD IN 2010 The world in figures Industries 115 preventive care. Insurers will offer lower The target date for 2010 In FoCus premiums in return for evidence of Personal computers achieving universal access Per ‘000 people healthy lifestyle choices, such as gym to HIV prevention, treatment, care and support is membership and health checks. North America 2010. The deadline is unlikely to be met, but there 974 Some of the world’s biggest-selling Western Europe should be slightly better news on AIDS in Africa, 688 thanks to increasing access to anti-retroviral drugs drugs will lose patent protection in Eastern Europe and Russia and the marginalisation of various high-profile 2010. According to EvaluatePharma, an 393 “AIDS deniers” who threatened to derail some unprecedented $133bn in sales will lose Latin America 295 prevention programmes. Thus UNAIDS’s 2010 patent protection between 2010 and Asia and Australasia “Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic” should be 2012, affecting Pfizer and Eli Lilly, among 189 able to highlight success stories in countries as diverse as Botswana (where the others. Their loss will be the generic drug Middle East and Africa manufacturers’ gain—sales of generics 167 mortality trend is declining) and Ethiopia (where AIDS deaths are being cut), although Africa will remain the world’s worst-affected region. will outstrip the total drug market’s 5.1% growth (in dollar terms) in 2010. continue to be the best performer, mainly because Western electronics The World Health Organisation expects manufacturers will be sourcing more of To watch: Securitisation 2.0. Unbowed by US giant, HJ Heinz, reckons its revenue the global swine-flu pandemic to last the subprime mortgage debacle, bankers will grow by 4-6%, implying sales of its their production there. through 2010 and beyond, affecting up will find new assets to bundle, slice and namesake ketchup and other packaged to one-third of the world’s population To watch: Biocomputing. E. coli, better sell on. Some of the securities gaining items of $10.6bn-10.8bn. About 60% of by the end of 2011. So far, most cases known as tummy bug extraordinaire, momentum may feature life-insurance that will come from non-US markets. have occurred in developed countries has found a new role as the brains of policies and carbon credits. To smell: Bovine flatulence. By adjusting with good health-care systems, but the a bacterial computer dreamed up by how much starch, sugar, cellulose, ash, death toll could rise rapidly as swine flu scientists at Missouri Western State Food & FArmIng fat and other elements are contained spreads to places where public health University and Davidson College. So far, in cattle feed, scientists at Canada’s care is poor. the critter-based computer can count and University of Alberta reckon they solve complex equations. To watch: Clean genes. Dozens of can provide beef producers with the incurable hereditary diseases may know-how to reduce cow emissions by soon be preventable. Researchers at medIA as much as 25%. That’s good news for the Oregon National Primate Research CLoudY FAIr sunnY both farmers and those worried about Centre removed hereditary material from greenhouse gases. a rhesus monkey’s egg with defective International land-lease deals between countries with money and those with DNA, then inserted it into a healthy egg underused farmland will punctuate the HeALTH CAre stripped of its own hereditary package. CLoudY FAIr sunnY growing debate over long-term food They produced a healthy baby monkey. security in 2010. Critics say the deals The recovery of advertising spending amount to a neo-colonial land grab, with InFormATIon TeCHnoLogY will be helped in 2010 by the Winter environmental downsides as well. The six Olympics, the FIFA World Cup and the US member-states of the Gulf Co-operation CLoudY FAIr sunnY mid-term elections. After contracting Council, which will spend over $10bn on by 8.5% in 2009, global advertising food imports in 2010, will pursue their Long-awaited reform of the US health- spending will grow by 1.6% in 2010 goal of turning Africa into their “bread care system will take place in 2010 but and by 4.3% in 2011, according to CLoudY FAIr sunnY basket” with the help of Mozambique, record-high levels of public debt— ZenithOptimedia. Senegal, Sudan and Tanzania. Indeed, the incurred to fight the financial crisis— Ethiopian Central Statistics Agency says The global IT industry skipped a Among the larger economies, 62 of 79 will crimp its breadth and depth. Global heartbeat in the recession of 2009 but will enjoy ad-spend growth in 2010, the country’s 13.3m smallholders will life expectancy, meanwhile, will reach open up more than 1m hectares of virgin will go back to what it does best in 2010. although North America will shrink 72.5 years in 2010, bringing the number Global IT spending will advance by 4.4%, a further 2.4% to just under $159bn, land to outside investors. of people 65 and over to 523m, or 7.6% led by pent-up demand for software after contracting by 10.3% in 2009, The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts of the population. This will drive up costs and services. PC sales will romp ahead according to Zenith. Western Europe will a rise of 4.4% in commodity prices for and raise the old-age dependency ratio, by more than 8%, aided by demand for fare little better, edging up just 0.2%. food, feedstuffs and drinks, helped by reducing the amount of tax available to sleeker netbooks and laptops. Fast-growing China will be the world’s increased demand for animal feed in fund health-care systems everywhere. fourth-largest advertising market in emerging markets. The star performer This IT wealth will not be evenly spread. Governments and insurers will redouble 2010, having overtaken Britain, and will be sugar, whose price will go up by There will be only 17 PCs for every 100 efforts to hold down costs, putting a India will close in on the top ten. North 15% in 2010. Demand from developing people in the Middle East and Africa greater emphasis on public health and American and west European markets countries will be partly responsible, but in 2010, compared with more than 97 combined will still account for nearly so will the use of sugarcane for biofuels in the US and Canada. Although PC Health-care spending 60% of the global pie. and a poor crop in India in 2009. ownership in Asia will be less than 19 As % of GDP per 100 people, the gap between the Zenith predicts that online ad spending The recession has curbed coffee North America fastest-growing Asian economies and will account for 13.8% of worldwide consumption in emerging markets, 15.5 the West is starting to narrow. China, advertising in 2010—up from 10.5% where it is considered a luxury, but Western Europe for example, will increase its total IT in 2008—and be worth $63.1bn. Western retail sales will hold up well 10.2 spending by 13.3%, to $80.2bn, in 2010 Harnessing the advertising potential as consumption at home replaces the Latin America and will surpass Germany’s IT spending of social media will be key, however, as café culture. That’s good news for Brazil, 7.6 by 2011. conventional search ads won’t deliver which will produce 43.5m bags of coffee Asia and Australasia especially good results. 6.0 The World Semiconductor Trade in 2010, according to the US Department Eastern Europe and Russia Statistics organisation expects chip sales Traditional media such as magazines, of Agriculture, ahead of its earlier 5.9 to bounce back in 2010, rising by 7.3% newspapers, television and radio will forecast of 39.1m bags. Middle East and Africa to $209bn, and by a further 8.9% in continue to lose advertising share. Food companies with strong brands and 5.7 2011. It forecasts growth in all regional Magazines will fare somewhat better low-priced items will surge in 2010. A markets by 2011, but Asia-Pacific will than newspapers, as it is difficult to

116 Industries The world in figures THE WORLD IN 2010 slide in rubber demand. Global copper Ringtones are so last year. Ringback tones—clips 2010 In FoCus consumption will rise by 3.1% in 2010 Mobile-phone subscriptions per 100 people, globally of songs heard while waiting for a call to be on stronger demand from the world’s answered—are already huge in Asia and are poised cable-makers. 2009 to become the next big thing for mobiles in the 73.5 rest of the world. Ringbacks are generally cheaper This will be good news for Chile, which 2010 than ringtones, but buying 15 seconds of sound accounts for around one-third of global 80.0 for favourite contacts adds up to real revenue. copper production. The Chilean Copper 2011 Commission expects national output to 85.2 According to UK-based Juniper Research, revenue rise by 6.3% to 5.8m tonnes in 2010. 2012 from ringbacks will surpass ringtone sales in 2010. 89.6 They will also provide marketing opportunities: Gold’s glittering run has been propelled operators will offer customers free airtime credit if by skittish investors who remain they subject callers to a branded music clip. concerned about the health of the To watch: Cloud phones. The lowly world’s financial system. This demand telephone handset will become a won’t entirely offset the continuing web-enabled, touchscreen device with reproduce online the leisure experience a Dubai-based hotel giant, won’t be weakness in the jewellery market around applications such as a calendar, SMS and of reading a magazine. In the two fazed, sticking to plans to launch 30 new the world. Gold prices, as a result, will e-mail retrieval. It will also connect to years to 2010, print advertising in US hotels around the world before 2012. ease back slightly to average $900 a users’ mobile phones, so contacts and magazines will plummet by 22.8% Asian cities will attract most of the new tonne in 2010, from $950 in 2009. voicemail messages can be shared. to $9.8bn before rising by 14.3% investment in lodging. To watch: The space elevator. A group of to $11.2bn by 2013, according to Japanese scientists is working on creating PricewaterhouseCoopers. To watch: Brad Pitt. The A-list TrAveL & TourIsm Hollywood superstar is working with an incredibly long, thin and very strong To watch: In-game advertising. It’s Los Angeles-based architects GRAFT on carbon filament that would link Earth to a tricky way to reach consumers, but an 800-room, environmentally friendly a satellite in orbit. Once fixed, the cable marketers love the novelty of it. Though five-star hotel and resort for Zabeel could convey cargo and people into space starting from a low base, Jack Myers Properties, a developer, in Dubai. It’s not more cheaply and easily than rockets. The Media Business Report reckons in-game Mr Pitt’s first foray into architecture: his price tag? $10bn. CLoudY FAIr sunnY advertising will grow by 28% in 2010. charity, Making It Right, is building 150 sustainable homes in an area of New TeLeComs International tourist arrivals will grow by Orleans ravaged by Hurricane Katrina. 2.2% in 2010, according to Euromonitor ProPerTY & ConsTruCTIon International. Hotel revenue will rise by 1%, as will air travel—better than rAw mATerIALs in 2009, but too little, too late for many operators. CLoudY FAIr sunnY With airlines struggling, Boeing will cut CLoudY FAIr sunnY production of its long-range, wide-body Through good times and bad, the 777 jet by 28%, having shelved planned After a 16% drop in 2009, US non- CLoudY FAIr world’s love affair with the mobile sunnY increases in production of the 767 and residential construction spending will phone remains undimmed. There will 747. On the bright side, the company slip by another 12% in 2010, according Base-metal prices will recover in 2010, as be 80 mobile-phone subscriptions for will deliver its first 787 Dreamliner to All to the American Institute of Architects. government stimulus packages support a every 100 people in the world in 2010. Nippon Airways of Japan. Commercial projects such as hotels, modest recovery in demand. Investment Penetration will be highest in Europe shopping centres and corporate offices in mining will remain subdued in the (132%), where competition among Revenue per room at US hotels will be hardest hit, but the so-called wake of the credit crisis. operators is intense. will climb by 1.6% in 2010 after a “institutional market”—schools, 15.7% drop in 2009, according to Steel prices will edge up to average Smart-phones will be the fastest- hospitals and infrastructure works—will PricewaterhouseCoopers. A modest rise $517 a tonne as supply remains tight, growing category of handsets, even in fare better as public stimulus funding in business travel will help. Indeed, the although demand will remain below poorer countries, where they often serve becomes available. Although the National Business Travel Association 2007 levels as the world limps out of as a substitute for PCs. India and China, construction industry accounts for forecasts a 1.2% compound annual recession. With the auto industry in where more advanced third-generation just over 5% of all non-farm payroll growth rate in global business travel the doldrums, tyremakers will have (3G) mobile-phone networks are being employment in the US, it has suffered during the five years through to 2013. fewer orders to fill, causing a further rolled out, will see strong growth, given more than 20% of job losses since the Iranian business travel will increase by their lack of fixed-line infrastructure. recession began, and will continue to almost 9% as Russia’s contracts by 4%. EIU’s industrial raw-materials index According to Pyramid Research, 17% of suffer in 2010. % change in $ prices Indian mobile-phone customers will be China’s tourism receipts will be aided by House prices in the UK’s hard-hit Rubber Fibres using 3G technology by 2013. the biggest-ever World Expo, opening on residential property market will rise by Metals Industrial raw materials After fits and starts, m-commerce will May 1st in Shanghai. Some 70m people 2% by the end of 2010, and by a further 25 flourish in 2010. Nokia, the world’s will attend. The soccer World Cup will 3.6% in 2011, according to the Centre 20 largest handset-maker, will roll out an make an even bigger difference to South for Economics and Business Research. 15 m-payment system that will allow users Africa, where the government expects a In China, the property bust of 2008 will 10 to transfer money, buy train tickets, tourism bonanza worth $2.1bn. be a distant memory. With house prices 5 pay bills or top-up their phone. Mobile in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou 0 banking, primarily an emerging-market already back to 2007 peaks, residential -5 -10 trend, will move into the developed investment in 2010 should once again world. Music fans in South-East Asia -15 easily account for 10% of GDP growth. will help the region account for more -20 Expatriate workers will continue to leave -25 than a third of global spending on the United Arab Emirates as the property -30 entertainment bought over the phone. and construction sectors contract. As -35 Globally, this business will grow by 28% a result, Dubai’s population will shrink -40 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 in 2010 to more than $40bn, according by 2% in 2010, says UBS. But Jumeirah, to the Mobile Entertainment Forum.

Economist - Industries in 2010

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Economist - Industries in 2010 — Document Transcript