Economist - Countries in 2010

THE WORLD IN 2010 103 The world in figures: Countries europe Italy 104 Turkey 106 Pakistan 107 latin america middle east Morocco 111 Austria 103 Latvia 104 Ukraine 106 Philippines 107 Argentina 109 and africa Nigeria 111 Belgium 103 Lithuania 105 United Kingdom 106 Singapore 107 Bolivia 109 Algeria 110 Saudi Arabia 111 Bulgaria 103 Netherlands 105 South Korea 107 Brazil 109 Angola 110 South Africa 111 Croatia 103 Norway 105 asia Sri Lanka 108 Chile 109 Cameroon 110 Tanzania 111 Czech Republic 103 Poland 105 Australia 106 Taiwan 108 Colombia 109 Egypt 110 United Arab Emirates 111 Denmark 104 Portugal 105 China 106 Thailand 108 Cuba 109 Ethiopia 110 Zimbabwe 111 Estonia 104 Romania 105 Hong Kong 106 Uzbekistan 108 Ecuador 109 Iran 110 Finland 104 Russia 105 India 106 Vietnam 108 Paraguay 109 Iraq 110 France 104 Slovakia 105 Indonesia 107 Peru 109 Israel 110 Germany 104 Slovenia 105 Japan 107 North america Uruguay 109 Jordan 110 For an interactive version Greece 104 Spain 106 Kazakhstan 107 Canada 108 Venezuela 109 Kenya 110 of these pages, go to: Hungary 104 Sweden 106 Malaysia 107 Mexico 108 Lebanon 111 www.economist.com/ Ireland 104 Switzerland 106 New Zealand 107 United States 108 Libya 111 theworldin Boiko Borisov, the prime minister, and Top growers Budget busters Euro-zone and UK budget balances, % of GDP 2005 2010 (forecast) EU ceiling his Citizens for European Development 3 of Bulgaria party will build on their July Qatar’s economy will grow by nearly 2009 election victory by cracking down a quarter in 2010 as new gas projects 0 on organised crime and corruption. come on stream, but no other country The government is likely to survive its will reach double figures. As the global -3 minority position in parliament, and if a economy emerges from recession, most successful attempt to topple it were to of the leading performers in 2010 will -6 force fresh elections, it might well add be minor emerging markets, especially seats. The economy will grow slowly. aid-driven countries in sub-Saharan -9 Africa. But energy production, as in the To watch: Help! Bulgaria’s heavy external- debt load and large current-account NETHERLANDS past, also tells part of the story: Congo -12 LUXEMBOURG PORTUGAL deficit may force the government to join GERMANY SLOVENIA SLOVAKIA (Brazzaville) will be boosted by rising BELGIUM FINLAND IRELAND AUSTRIA CYPRUS FRANCE GREECE MALTA SPAIN -15 the queue at the IMF’s bail-out window. ITALY oil output, and hydrocarbons production UK helps to place Turkmenistan among the top dozen. europe CroaTia China performs best among large main event: UK Conservatives: back from the wilderness euro-zone growth: 0.6% GDP growth: 0.3% economies as stimulus spending fills the GDP: $64bn (PPP: $78bn) hole left by the slump in the developed eu-27 growth: 0.6% eastern and central europe: 1.0% russia and Cis: 2.3% Inflation: 2.6% world. India, at ninth, regains some of Population: 4.5m its pre-crisis momentum as its services ausTria may even bring down the coalition GDP per head: $14,300 (PPP: $17,400) sector revives. Post-conflict recovery GDP growth: 0.8% government before its official term The coalition government is adjusting to boosts Iraq to tenth place. Madagascar, GDP: $398bn (PPP: $322bn) ends in 2011. The economy will grow by new leadership after the resignation of at 11th, will enjoy a peace dividend as Inflation: 0.8% 0.8%, which will feel only marginally the prime minister, Ivo Sanader, in 2009. foreign grants flow in. Population: 8.4m less painful than the contraction of 2009 Jadranka Kosor, his replacement, lacks rank Country gDp growth,% GDP per head: $47,310 (PPP: $38,260) as unemployment continues to rise and his credentials, and policymaking may The grand coalition of the Social living standards stagnate. drift. The goal of EU membership will 1 Qatar 24.5 give cohesion to the ruling coalition, but Democratic Party and the Austrian 2 China 8.6 People’s Party is working well, allowing bulgaria disagreements will flare over such issues 3 Congo (Brazzaville) 8.0 the government to focus on the weak as financial support for farmers. Rising GDP growth: 1.0% economy. Budget policy will concentrate GDP: $50bn (PPP: $92bn) unemployment and tight credit will hold 4 Turkmenistan 8.0 on boosting consumer spending, Inflation: 2.3% growth to a mere 0.3%. 5 Ethiopia 7.0 pumping money into R&D, and shoring Population: 7.4m up the banks. Austria will be flagged for GDP per head: $6,720 (PPP: $12,370) CzeCh republiC 5 Uzbekistan 7.0 breaching Europe’s fiscal-deficit ceiling, 7 Djibouti 6.5 but with so many others in the same Off balance GDP growth: 0.9% Current-account gap, % of GDP GDP: $194bn (PPP: $260bn) 8 Sri Lanka 6.3 position it will be let off with a warning. Inflation: % of GDP 1.4% Bulgaria Euro zone 5 Population: 10.2m 9 India 6.3 belgium 0 GDP perConsumer prices $19,050 (PPP: $25,480) head: 10 Iraq 6.2 GDP growth: 0.8% The Civic Democratic Party (ODS) is 11 Madagascar 6.2 GDP: $455bn (PPP: $386bn) marginally better placed to lead the Budget balance Inflation: 0.0% -5 12 Vietnam 6.0 government after elections to be held by Population: 10.6m -10 June 2010 than its main rival, the Czech GDP per head: $42,840 (PPP: $36,300) -15 Social Democratic Party, which was Current-account balance 2010 forecasts unless otherwise indicated. An impasse between Flemish and blackened after calling a no-confidence Inflation: year-on-year annual average. French-speaking parties over the vote that plunged the country into -20 Dollar GDPs calculated using 2010 forecasts for dollar exchange rates (GDP at PPP, or purchasing-power parity, devolution of federal power to regional turmoil while it held the rotating shown in brackets). All figures simplified by rounding. authorities will divert political attention -25 EU presidency. The long-held aim of from the vital task of nursing the adopting the euro would suffer under a 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: london@eiu.com economy through the downturn, and government led by the Eurosceptic ODS.

104 Countries The world in figures THE WORLD IN 2010 To watch: Internal combustion. The Czech Republic will introduce its own FiNlaND greeCe Undemanding Real domestic demand, �bn car-scrappage scheme as those of its GDP growth: 0.8% GDP growth: 0.5% GDP: $242bn (PPP: $182bn) GDP: $372bn (PPP: $334bn) 170 main trading partners are parked. All will Inflation: 0.9% Inflation: 0.8% run out by the end of the year, and car Population: 5.4m 160 Population: 11.0m sales will idle. GDP per head: $45,320 (PPP: $34,070) GDP per head: $33,860 (PPP: $30,390) 150 The four-party coalition government The main challenge for the prime DeNmark under the prime minister, Matti minister, George Papandreou, will be 140 GDP growth: 0.5% Vanhanen, will concentrate on steering delivering on the expansive promises 130 GDP: $318bn (PPP: $196bn) the economy out of recession, when not made during his successful election Inflation: 1.5% distracted by internal disagreements. Population: 5.5m campaign in 2009. The Socialist leader 120 With exports on hold pending a recovery trounced the incumbent conservatives GDP per head: $57,470 (PPP: $35,350) in global trade, fiscal policy will do most by condemning their fiscal 110 The prime minister, Lars Lokke of the work, and the budget deficit will programme—which included a public- Rasmussen, does not need to call break decisively through the EU ceiling pay and hiring freeze—as unnecessarily 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 elections until late 2011, but will see after posting enviable surpluses as austere. If he follows through on a support for his minority government recently as 2008. Even so, recovery will manifesto of higher public wages, shortfall. There is an outside chance it leak steadily as the economy struggles. come too late in the year to make Finns subsidised employment programmes could come up short, tipping the country His immediate priority will be to feel good about the economy. and more spending on education, a into default. support the troubled banks with state fiscal deficit that is already alarming guarantees and boost government could soon become critical. investment to prop up consumer and FraNCe iTaly business spending. The delayed impact GDP growth: 0.9% GDP growth: 0.4% of lower interest rates and further tax GDP: $2,721bn (PPP: $2,159bn) huNgary GDP: $2,139bn (PPP: $1,721bn) cuts should also help. Even so, Denmark, Inflation: 0.9% Inflation: 0.9% Population: 62.9m GDP growth: -1.0% which is experiencing one of the longest GDP: $127bn (PPP: $182bn) Population: 58.1m GDP per head: $43,250 (PPP: $34,310) GDP per head: $36,820 (PPP: $29,630) recessions of any European country, will Inflation: 4.2% grow by only 0.5% in 2010. President Nicolas Sarkozy will spend Population: 9.9mThe government of the prime minister, freely to counteract the effects of the GDP per head: $12,850 (PPP: $18,380) Silvio Berlusconi, has solid majorities To watch: Yes, please. The government recession, supporting employment The austerity demanded by the IMF and in both houses of parliament and need may hold a referendum on adopting the and bringing forward planned public- the EU in return for financial support not call elections until 2013. But the euro, but only if the chances of a “yes” investment projects. His largesse will will hold the budget gap steady at just volatility of Italy’s political scene— vote increase substantially. push the budget deficit to nearly 10% under 4% of GDP, but at the cost of arising not least from the controversial of GDP; this will make the country’s economic growth; the economy will Mr Berlusconi himself—means the esToNia past willingness to flout the EU’s 3% shrink for a second year, though at a government’s survival is never assured. GDP growth: -3.0% fiscal ceiling look trifling. Structural much slower pace than the 7% recorded Tight fiscal policies leave little room GDP: $18bn (PPP: $23bn) reforms, central to Mr Sarkozy’s election in 2009. The minority government, led for economic stimulus, and a lack of Inflation: 0.2% campaign, will be put back. All this will by the Hungarian Socialist Party, is appetite for structural reforms means Population: 1.3m restore stability to the economy, but marking time, and the opposition Fidesz- the economy will be poorly placed to GDP per head: $13,810 (PPP: $17,230) without any dynamism. Hungarian Civic Union is well positioned ride a global upturn. Italy’s economic The Baltic states are the tail-enders in To watch: Working late. A review of to win the April parliamentary election, position within Europe will continue to the global recession. Estonia’s economy the state pension system will kick off though perhaps not by a sufficient weaken. will shrink by 3% in 2010 after a in 2010. The government has been margin to govern alone. To watch: Cover story. The Jesus-linked punishing 13% collapse in 2009. As softening up the public to expect an elsewhere, economic upheaval has To watch: Just the Jobbik. Economic and shroud of Turin will be exhibited in increase in the retirement age. political distress has stoked support for the city’s cathedral in April and May. brought out the anti-incumbent vote, Miraculous relic or medieval forgery, the with the government parties taking extreme ideas. The rise of the far-right, germaNy stridently nationalist Jobbik party is a linen fragment will draw the religious a pasting in the 2009 elections to the and curious alike. European Parliament. This bodes ill for GDP growth: 0.5% symptom, and could propel the group the prime minister, Andrus Ansip, and GDP: $3,196bn (PPP: $2,807bn) into parliament at the next election. his minority government, and early Inflation: 0.7% laTvia elections are on the cards. Population: 83.0m GDP per head: $38,520 (PPP: $33,840) irelaND GDP growth: -4.0% GDP: $26bn (PPP: $31bn) GDP growth: -2.5% Inflation: -1.7% The Christian Democratic Union/Christian GDP: $218bn (PPP: $174bn) Every cloud… Population: 2.2m Social Union (CDU/CSU) retained its Inflation: 0.4% Inflation, % change year-on-year dominant position in government in GDP per head: $11,560 (PPP: $13,810) Current-account gap, % of GDP Population: 4.2m 15 GDP growth, % change year-on-year September 2009 elections, bucking GDP per head: $52,390 (PPP: $41,780) Hardest hit of all European nations by the anti-incumbency trend in other the global slump, Latvia’s economy will Hit harder than most by the global 10 advanced countries. Election victory shrink by a further 4% in 2010 after crisis, the economy will remain in not only secured another term for 2009’s horrific 17% contraction and a 5 recession throughout 2010 and for Chancellor Angela Merkel but allowed 4.6% decline in 2008. The five-party much of the year after. Unemployment the CDU to replace its coalition partner, coalition government—led by the 0 will peak at around 16% and the fiscal the Social Democratic Party, with the prime minister, Valdis Dombrovskis, and -5 deficit is firmly into double figures. The Free Democratic Party, which is smaller installed in March 2009 after a political government, a coalition led by Fianna -10 and fits better with the CDU’s liberal crisis—will not last. The president, Fail, will limp on, but may not make it to outlook. Germany has been battered by Valdis Zatlers, will try to avoid calling -15 the official end of its term in 2012. the global downturn; economic growth elections ahead of the October 2010 -20 will resume in 2010, but will be weak as To watch: Pay off. Ireland will be scheduled date, but may have little government pump-priming in the labour tapping the same capital markets as choice if a new coalition government 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 and car markets ends. richer, stronger nations to fund its fiscal cannot be negotiated.

THE WORLD IN 2010 The world in figures Countries 105 To watch: Mean streets. The economic 2010 iN persoN Norway Britain’s Conservative Party leader, David Cameron, slump brought rioters onto Riga’s streets in early 2009, and social discontent will GDP growth: 1.4% may be shooting into an open goal in the general remain a concern throughout 2010. GDP: $441bn (PPP: $276bn) election; the Labour Party incumbents are in retreat Inflation: 1.7% and Gordon Brown, the prime minister, is reviled by Population: 4.9m angry voters. Few, though, would envy Mr Cameron liThuaNia GDP per head: $90,630 (PPP: $56,680) the task that awaits him. Britain, laboratory of the GDP growth: -4.5% The Labour-party led coalition won a unsavoury practices that gave rise to the credit GDP: $39bn (PPP: $53bn) narrow victory in the September 2009 crunch, has been battered by the ensuing economic Inflation: 2.1% election, although differences among upheaval. Its financial centre is shrunken and Population: 3.3m the partners over Norway’s oil and gas weak, its fiscal accounts are in tatters, the stimulus GDP per head: $11,690 (PPP: $15,830) propping up its economy is unsustainable and its place in the world is on the slide. resources will continue. Recession, in Another story of Baltic boom-to-bust. any case less pronounced than in most Once he has dealt with these inconveniences, Mr Cameron—whose party has been The economy will continue to wilt, of Europe thanks to a cushion of oil out of power since an emphatic election defeat in 1997—will face the small matter contracting by 4.5% in 2010 after wealth, will turn to modest recovery, and of rising popular discontent at unavoidable spending cuts, likely to be channelled shrinking by 15% in 2009. The budget Norway is likely to avoid the sharp rise in via resurgent unions. Good luck, Dave. deficit will swell to 6.5% of GDP, twice unemployment experienced elsewhere. the ceiling under Maastricht rules; hopes for adopting the euro by 2012 will fade. romaNia slovakia polaND The government coalition, led by the GDP growth: 1.0% GDP growth: 1.5% centre-right Homeland Union-Lithuanian GDP growth: 1.9% GDP: $186bn (PPP: $252bn) GDP: $89bn (PPP: $117bn) GDP: $476bn (PPP: $707bn) Inflation: 3.3% Inflation: 2.3% Christian Democrats, needs support Inflation: 2.8% Population: 21.4m Population: 5.5m from populist parties and is unlikely Population: 38.1m GDP per head: $8,680 (PPP: $11,760) GDP per head: $16,310 (PPP: $21,280) to complete its term, which ends in GDP per head: $12,490 (PPP: $18,550) 2012. Social discontent amid prolonged The year will start with the formation The prime minister, Robert Fico, and his recession will add to political instability. Tensions between the centre-right prime of a new government, but its make-up centre-left Smer-SD party will perform minister, Donald Tusk, and the centre- will depend on the presidential election well in the June election, but will still Longer, deeper left president, Lech Kaczynski, will at the end of 2009. If Traian Basescu is need the support of coalition partners. GDP growth, % overshadow Polish politics at least until re-elected he will try, with difficulty, The likely presence of the far-right Euro zone October, when presidential elections to forge a Democratic Liberal Party-led Slovak National Party in government and Lithuania 15 may allow Mr Tusk to seize the top job. coalition. If Mircea Geoana of the Social the rise of similarly nationalist forces Alternatively, the government may fall Democratic Party wins, his party will in Hungary will keep bilateral relations 10 if the ruling Civic Platform’s coalition govern in coalition with the National tense—particularly in light of recent partner, the Polish Peasants’ Party, Liberal Party and the Hungarian Union moves seen as inimical to the interests 5 pushes its special-interest agenda too of Democrats in Romania. of Slovakia’s large ethnic Hungarian 0 hard—though fragile voter support may minority. Slovakia’s recession has been dissuade it from rocking the boat. The deep, but will end in 2010. -5 economy, which avoided recession, will To watch: Crowd control. This may be helped by rising investment. become a year of protest as an IMF- -10 backed austerity programme raises sloveNia To watch: Poles depart. Emigration, the union ire. GDP growth: 1.0% -15 end of a baby boom and a rise in the GDP: $51bn (PPP: $57bn) average age for starting a family mean 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Inflation: 1.7% the working-age population will enter russia Population: 2.0m NeTherlaNDs a slow decline from 2010, constraining GDP growth: 2.5% GDP per head: $25,510 (PPP: $28,210) economic-growth potential. GDP: $1,414bn (PPP: $2,161bn) GDP growth: 0.4% Jobseekers Inflation: 9.4% GDP: $814bn (PPP: $663bn) Unemployment, % Population: 141.0m Inflation: 0.2% porTugal GDP per head: $10,030 (PPP: $15,330) 13 Population: 16.5m GDP growth: 0.1% GDP per head: $49,250 (PPP: $40,080) GDP: $224bn (PPP: $234bn) The combined shocks of sharply lower oil 12 Periodic near-crises will make for Inflation: 0.3% prices and falling international demand strained relations between the main Population: 10.7m meant Russia had a worse time of it than 11 GDP per head: $21,000 (PPP: $21,930) most during the global slump. Even so, partners in the ruling coalition, the Christian Democratic Appeal and the The incumbent Socialist Party (PS) will an oil rally and stronger global demand 10 Labour Party. But the government will remain the largest party in parliament will bring a respectable rebound in 2010. 9 hold together until the 2011 election. after the election in September 2009, The delayed impact of the government’s Public spending, especially to help the but it has lost the absolute majority that large stimulus package and lower 8 unemployed, will swell the budget gap, it secured at the 2005 election. The PS interest rates will also support a return but the economy will barely grow in will serve as a minority government, so to growth. Russians are disgruntled 7 2010. The state, already in control of two 2010 may see a shaky start as it tries to because of belt-tightening, but have not major banks, may be forced to intervene find its footing. The PS is expected to turned on their leaders, and the power 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 again in support of the domestic form ad hoc parliamentary coalitions in tandem of President Dmitry Medvedev financial system if the global economic order to pass legislation, looking to the and Vladimir Putin, the prime minister, recession continues to bite. right or the left depending on the issue will remain firmly in place. There is persistent sniping between the To watch: Desert storm. A threatened at hand. This strategy is likely to lead to To watch: Kremlin comeback. parties of the centre-left ruling coalition, parliamentary inquiry into the Dutch increased political instability, especially Much-expected tensions between though the bad blood is manageable and government’s support for the US-led compared with the PS’s previous term Mr Medvedev and Mr Putin have not the government looks stable. Slovenia invasion of Iraq could damage the prime in office. materialised, but speculation over has broadly pro-market business policies, minister, Jan Peter Balkenende, bringing To watch: Talent teaser. A lower tax rate Mr Putin’s plans for a return to the but the next round of structural reforms an election ahead of the scheduled date for highly qualified workers comes into presidency in 2012 will intensify in the will remain on hold as the government in May 2011. force on January 1st. coming year. struggles to revive the economy.

106 Countries The world in figures THE WORLD IN 2010 spaiN Turkey Coming up… GDP per head (PPP) Asia (excluding Japan) OECD GDP growth: -0.8% GDP growth: 3.0% GDP: $1,435bn (PPP: $1,394bn) GDP: $687bn (PPP: $913bn) 35,000 Inflation: 0.7% Inflation: 7.0% 30,000 Population: 45.9m Population: 73.3m GDP per head: $31,250 (PPP: $30,360) GDP per head: $9,370 (PPP: $12,450) 25,000 Seven seats short of a majority, the The tussle between the moderately 20,000 centre-left government of the prime Islamist Justice and Development party 15,000 minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, government and the staunchly secularist could find itself in trouble if regional political and military establishment 10,000 parties withdraw their informal support. will continue to test the country’s 5,000 However, disarray in the main opposition institutions. The economy will be equally Popular Party lowers the odds. A home- testing in 2010, and a fresh crisis, 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 grown property bubble meant Spain was including the spectre of debt default, hit early and hard by the credit crunch; will threaten if the government fails consumer confidence will remain fragile, to shore up confidence among foreign asia and the housing market, although investors by reaching a new deal with main event: China becomes the world’s second-largest economy stabilising, will remain weak. Growth the IMF. Peace talks over Cyprus, a big asia growth (excluding Japan): 5.5% aseaN growth: 3.7% will not return until late in the year at factor in Turkey’s EU membership bid, the earliest, and unemployment and the will proceed, but bring no deal. that cautious economists—worried budget deficit will soar. To watch: Cultural earnings. Tourism ausTralia about overheating—have been To watch: AVE Maria. Overheated receipts will be boosted by Istanbul’s GDP growth: 1.7% recommending for years. Even so, Madrileños will be able to hit the beach designation as a European capital of GDP: $1,125bn (PPP: $839bn) the economic stimulus is producing culture, along with Essen in Germany Inflation: 2.8% at Alicante in record time when the Population: 21.5m industrial overcapacity and asset-price high-speed AVE train link opens. and Pécs in Hungary. GDP per head: $52,290 (PPP: $39,020) bubbles in stocks and property. A surge in bank lending, accompanied by weak In any other year, opposition attacks risk assessment, will bring a worrying sweDeN ukraiNe on the government’s economic rise in bad loans. GDP growth: 1.3% GDP growth: 1.0% management might have hit home. But GDP: $435bn (PPP: $337bn) GDP: $122bn (PPP: $291bn) Australia was among the select few that Inflation: 1.5% Inflation: 12.2% avoided recession in 2009, thanks in hoNg koNg Population: 9.3m Population: 45.5m GDP per head: $2,670 (PPP: $6,390) part to successful fiscal and monetary GDP growth: 2.8% GDP per head: $46,730 (PPP: $36,160) GDP: $218bn (PPP: $306bn) policies, so the thrusts will cause only The centre-right coalition government The year will kick off with a presidential flesh wounds. Kevin Rudd, who heads the Inflation: 1.0% has retained public support despite election, marking the next round in the Population: 7.1m Labor Party government, is here for the battle for control among the country’s GDP per head: $30,720 (PPP: $43,180) the economic crisis, but the opposition duration. Stronger business investment block is still searching for ways to hold post-Soviet factions. Viktor Yanukovich and rising exports to China will help the While mainland China forges ahead, together and present a coherent front. of the opposition Party of Regions, economy to grow faster in 2010, though this former British outpost will The September election is too close who opposed the revolution, is likely to at a less-than-full-blooded 1.7%. struggle with the economic ills of the to call, but if a programme of tax cuts come out ahead of the prime minister, developed world, emerging from the and budget spending brings recovery Yulia Tymoshenko, its champion, and 2009 recession to only tepid growth. from the 2009 recession into sight, the a large field of also-rans. Previously, ChiNa The mainland’s strong performance will coalition will start as the favourite. benign economic conditions meant GDP growth: 8.6% help, but the world trade in goods on dysfunctional politics bore little cost, GDP: $5,588bn (PPP: $9,845bn) which Hong Kong’s economy depends To watch: Baltic backwash. Two of but in the wake of a contraction likely Inflation: 2.4% will remain depressed. Sweden’s four major banks are heavily to have approached 17% in 2009 people Population: 1,339.2m exposed to the benighted Baltic will be less forgiving and could show GDP per head: $4,170 (PPP: $7,350) To watch: Ballotproof. The pro- economies and may need bailing out if their displeasure on the streets. After selling to consumption-crazed democracy protests held every year those countries are forced to devalue. Americans and Europeans during the could be particularly loud in 2010. boom, China is using the proceeds The souring economy has undermined uNiTeD kiNgDom support for the chief executive, Donald swiTzerlaND to spend its way through the bust. GDP growth: 0.6% Indeed, thanks to the global recession, Tsang, and the mainland-dominated GDP growth: 0.7% GDP: $2,255bn (PPP: $2,160bn) system behind him. GDP: $473bn (PPP: $318bn) Inflation: 2.3% growth will slow to the moderate rate Inflation: 0.4% Population: 62.2m Population: 7.8m GDP per head: $36,250 (PPP: $34,730) Share croppers iNDia GDP per head: $60,690 (PPP: $40,780) Shanghai composite index, Dec 19th 1990=100 Economic growth will resume, but GDP growth: 6.3% The Swiss People’s Party (SVP), the damage done by the global economic 8,000 GDP: $1,468bn (PPP: $3,876bn) country’s largest, is back inside the Inflation: 8.6% crisis—to the country’s fiscal position, government tent after spending a 7,000 Population: 1,184.1m to the reputation of London as a GDP per head: $1,240 (PPP: $3,270) year in opposition in 2008. That means financial centre and to the standing 6,000 Switzerland’s consensus-based way of the governing Labour Party—will A resilient domestic market and low of governing will be better equipped take a generation to repair. The political 5,000 reliance on exports have allowed India to ride out the economic downturn cost will be evident in a probable May to grow through the global downturn, 4,000 and engineer changes in the financial election, when voters will vent their thanks in part to decisive fiscal stimulus system, including implementing fury on politicians as a class, but mainly 3,000 and growth in credit. The downside rules weakening the secrecy laws on Labour. Though there is hardly a is that the fiscal deficit—which has synonymous with Swiss banking. groundswell of enthusiasm for the 2,000 been a worry for years—is widening However, the SVP will continue to opposition Conservative Party, it will win sharply. Indebtedness will also grow, and oppose its coalition partners’ overtures in the election and achieve an overall 2007 2008 2009 India’s home-grown way of measuring to the EU. parliamentary majority. non-performing loans will only disguise

THE WORLD IN 2010 The world in figures Countries 107 a growing problem. The Congress party- 2010 iN persoN led coalition government will focus on Emerging from the sometimes bizarre rule of philippiNes short-term economic growth, to the Saparmurat “Turkmenbashi” Niyazov, Turkmenistan GDP growth: 3.7% detriment of structural reform. needed a leader of character. gurbanguly GDP: $166bn (PPP: $344bn) berdymukhammedov has been up to the task, Inflation: 3.8% To watch: Track records. The sweeping aside the paraphernalia of his predecessor’s Population: 99.9m Commonwealth Games, contested by 71 personality cult and throwing open the country’s GDP per head: $1,660 (PPP: $3,440) countries that mostly share a common shutters. In foreign policy he has broken free of past as part of the British Empire, will Russia’s grip and started to build relationships with In the post Workers’ remittances, $bn take place in India for the first time, the West and China, which have been welcomed. He security permitting. quickly showed a new leadership style at home after 18 coming to power in 1997—paying overdue public-sector salaries, for example, 16 and exhorting citizens not to celebrate his birthday. With access to Caspian gas iNDoNesia reserves likely to matter a lot in 2010, the coming year could see 14 GDP growth: 4.5% 12 Mr Berdymukhammedov make his mark on the international stage too. GDP: $594bn (PPP: $993bn) 10 Inflation: 5.1% Population: 243.0m 8 GDP per head: $2,440 (PPP: $4,090) prime minister, Yukio Hatoyama, must To watch: Legal defence. Supporters 6 As in India, a strong domestic market contend with the DPJ’s power behind the of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, 4 and low trade dependency are helping throne, Ichiro Ozawa. The economy will who is facing a second trial on sodomy improve, but hesitant US and European charges, could take to the streets if he is 2 the country weather the global slump, supporting growth rates that advanced consumers will limit the export recovery convicted. 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 economies can only envy. President Japan needs to sustain a turnaround. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono heads a To watch: Sino sign-up. The new New zealaND disparate coalition, but has a strong government will align foreign relations Peace talks with communist insurgents GDP growth: 1.9% may resume after a four-year hiatus, but mandate and will remain in power. more closely with China, weakening the GDP: $133bn (PPP: $120bn) Difficult economic conditions will hold bond with the US that was an article of Inflation: 1.5% a final settlement is unlikely. President up progress on long-promised reforms faith for the LDP. Population: 4.4m Gloria Macapagal Arroyo cannot stand such as labour-market liberalisation. GDP per head: $30,350 (PPP: $27,360) for a third term in the 2010 election, but will try to retain influence by shifting kazakhsTaN A budget that postpones tax cuts the centre of power to the legislature. Still shopping planned for April and reduces Domestic demand, $bn GDP growth: 2.2% Remittances from overseas workers will GDP: $116bn (PPP: $183bn) government spending met with public continue their recovery, helping to push 600 Inflation: 6.7% approval, suggesting voters are realistic economic growth to 3.7%. Population: 16.2m about the pressures on the prime 500 GDP per head: $7,160 (PPP: $11,320) minister, John Key, and remain broadly supportive of his government. After siNgapore Squabbling among the country’s rulers has led to cabinet changes and the years of splurging, New Zealanders GDP growth: 3.8% 400 will save more, dampening consumer GDP: $178bn (PPP: $199bn) purging of business leaders, but the Inflation: 2.0% government appears stable for now. spending. The damaging effects of 300 falling house prices will also persist, Population: 5.0m Although an election is not due until GDP per head: $35,630 (PPP: $39,720) 2012, an early vote could be called if putting a further brake on consumption. the government thinks the economy Modest recession in 2009 will become Entrepôt to the world, the city-state 200 will worsen, which it might. The banks modest recovery in 2010. was battered by the collapse in world remain troubled and the currency could trade that accompanied the credit face a speculative attack, but oil-sector pakisTaN crunch. Plentiful foreign reserves have 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 projects, higher commodity prices and helped the ever-ruling People’s Action GDP growth: 2.4% Party government to soften the blow, the positive results of the stimulus GDP: $170bn (PPP: $461bn) To watch: Home-town hero. Relations package will help the economy to grow. Inflation: 8.6% but long-suppressed calls for greater with the US could get a boost: President Population: 185.5m political openness will intensify. Barack Obama, whose stepfather was GDP per head: $910 (PPP: $2,480) To watch: Cybersoccer. More than 3,000 malaysia Indonesian, spent some years in the National security will remain the most robots from 40 countries will take to the GDP growth: 3.9% soccer pitch to compete for the RoboCup country as a child. pressing issue for the president, Asif Ali GDP: $220bn (PPP: $401bn) Inflation: 0.8% Zardari. After a lull following the death in the world’s biggest robotics and JapaN Population: 28.9m of Pakistan’s Taliban leader, Baitullah artificial-intelligence event. GDP per head: $7,630 (PPP: $13,880) Mehsud, in a US drone attack, hostilities GDP growth: 1.3% GDP: $5,128bn (PPP: $4,228bn) The ruling Barisan Nasional and the in the country’s lawless north-west souTh korea Inflation: -0.2% combative prime minister, Najib Razak, will regain their former intensity, GDP growth: 2.8% Population: 126.8m have a solid power base and will remain bringing the government’s stability GDP: $882bn (PPP: $1,421bn) GDP per head: $40,440 (PPP: $33,340) in charge, but a fierce contest with into question. American military and Inflation: 2.6% the opposition Pakatan Rakyat for the development assistance will continue, Population: 49.5m The country will enter the year in loyalty of individual legislators will but the United States will demand GDP per head: $17,810 (PPP: $28,700) uncharted political territory, following keep politics confrontational. Malaysia’s greater accountability from Pakistan’s the electoral defeat in 2009 of the As elsewhere, the authorities will use worst recession in a decade will turn authorities. Pakistan’s main export Liberal Democrat Party (LDP) after 53 monetary and fiscal policy to mitigate into a respectable rebound in 2010 industry, textiles, will suffer from weak years of almost uninterrupted power. In the economic downturn, at the cost as world demand rallies. But an even global demand. its place, the Democratic Party of Japan of public indebtedness and a growing (DPJ) will aim to loosen the grip of the stronger pick-up in imports will lead to To watch: Don’t LOL. Wags sharing jokes budget gap. A modest economic recovery civil service and increase pay-outs to a significant deterioration in the trade at Mr Zardari’s expense via electronic will bring some much-needed respite the poor. But holding together a loose balance, and this will exert a drag on media could face 14 years in prison to the president, Lee Myung-bak, whose coalition will be difficult, and the new GDP growth. under a new law. uncertain handling of the downturn

108 Countries The world in figures THE WORLD IN 2010 Factory fightback sustained attack from the opposition, Abhisit is also seeing political friends Following the leader Industrial production, 2005=100 GDP growth (bars) and unemployment (lines), % Canada Mexico US dragged through the courts and coalition 130 allies eyeing the exits; this is likely to 10 be yet another election year. Starting 8 120 from a weak fiscal position, a three-year 6 stimulus programme that began in 4 2009 will swell the public debt while 2 110 delivering modest growth. 0 -2 100 -4 uzbekisTaN -6 GDP growth: 7.0% -8 90 GDP: $31bn (PPP: $83bn) Inflation: 8.7% -10 Population: 28.6m 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 GDP per head: $1,100 (PPP: $2,890) Islam Karimov will once again NorTh ameriCa has estranged voters. US ties will get a demonstrate his expertise in staying main event: The verdict on Obamanomics in America’s November mid-term elections boost from close co-operation over North on the presidential throne–most of North american (NaFTa) growth: 2.4% Korea, but pending ratification of a free- his opponents are living in exile–and trade agreement will continue to face speculation about the succession will To watch: Double celebration. Mexico opposition in South Korea and the US. become relevant only if he dies. Stimulus CaNaDa celebrates 200 years of independence measures and rising public-sector GDP growth: 2.0% (September) and the centenary of its sri laNka wages will support consumer spending, GDP: $1,478bn (PPP: $1,321bn) revolution (November). and improving global markets for the Inflation: 1.4% GDP growth: 6.3% Population: 34.0m country’s commodities exports will drive GDP: $49bn (PPP: $104bn) GDP per head: $43,450 (PPP: $38,850) uNiTeD sTaTes Inflation: 8.7% economic growth to 7%. Population: 20.4m An election in 2010 is possible as the GDP growth: 2.4% GDP per head: $2,410 (PPP: $5,070) opposition Liberals manoeuvre to GDP: $14,840bn (PPP: $14,840bn) vieTNam Inflation: 1.0% Military victory over the Tamil Tigers will bring down the minority Conservative GDP growth: 6.0% Population: 309.6m deliver a modest peace dividend, with GDP: $101bn (PPP: $274bn) government, although signs that GDP per head: $47,920 (PPP: $47,920) a burst of inward investment driving Inflation: 8.5% economic recovery is under way Population: 87.8m are likely to lift the incumbents. The fiscal surge coursing through growth to 6.3%, but underlying ethnic the economy—the budget deficit in tension and isolated terrorist attacks will GDP per head: $1,150 (PPP: $3,120) Export demand will increase in 2010 as commodity prices stabilise and 2009 was equal to a staggering 12% persist. President Mahinda Rajapakse of GDP, and will be almost as large in and his United People’s Freedom Red territory economic growth in the US—by far Budget balance, % of GDP Canada’s most important customer— 2010—will help to restore growth. Alliance government should do well in So, too, will the unorthodox monetary parliamentary elections which are due -2 moves back into positive territory. But the recession revealed the dangers of conditions that have been in place by April but may well come earlier. for the past year. But a second dip is over-dependence on US demand, and -4 trade policy will focus on diversifying a worrying possibility as the stimulus TaiwaN export markets to fast-growers such fades and joblessness remains elevated. GDP growth: 3.9% as China. The economy will grow President Barack Obama will struggle to GDP: $376bn (PPP: $824bn) -6 moderately, after 2009’s contraction, balance the left-leaning factions of his Inflation: 1.2% but high unemployment will prevent a party with its centrists, but will secure Population: 22.9m strong recovery. enough support in Congress—where GDP per head: $16,430 (PPP: $35,990) he has majorities—to advance his -8 President Ma Ying-jeou and his programmes. Embittered Republicans mexiCo will give him no quarter, and far-right Kuomintang government have a strong mandate—the ruling party controls GDP growth: 3.0% paranoia will take on disturbing tones. -10 GDP: $887bn (PPP: $1,668bn) Although Republican obstructionism will both parliament and the presidency— 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Inflation: 3.3% not be popular, the Democrats will lose and a rallying economy should reverse Population: 112.5m a slide in popular support. Growth will GDP per head: $7,890 (PPP: $14,830) ground in the November mid-terms. Vietnam was less badly affected by the reach 3.9%, reversing a slump of similar global recession than its neighbours, but size in 2009. Improving ties with China The strong links with the United States Moving out growth still halved between 2007 and that helped the economy early in the Home-ownership rates, % of total homes will remain a priority, and an economic 2009. The Communist government, under co-operation agreement with the decade plunged Mexico into its worst 70 Nguyen Tan Dung, will lend and spend as recession since the 1930s in 2009, mainland may be reached in 2010. necessary to keep the economy growing, 69 and the pace of the recovery will be 68 storing up imbalances for future years. constrained by the performance north 67 ThailaND The government will continue gradually of the border. After handing majority 66 GDP growth: 3.3% to shift its foreign relations in China’s control of the legislature to the once- 65 GDP: $274bn (PPP: $555bn) favour—a hotline was set up in 2009. hegemonic Partido Revolucionario Inflation: 2.2% The rebalancing will place some strain Institucional in mid-2009 elections, the 64 Population: 67.5m on relations with America. ruling Partido Acción Nacional under 63 GDP per head: $4,060 (PPP: $8,230) 62 To watch: Prost! It will be steins, President Felipe Calderón will be unable The political maelstrom surrounding the schwarzbrot and stollen as Vietnam to implement structural reforms already 61 prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, reflects celebrates German Year (and Germany long overdue. Should the global recovery 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009 the power struggle that has infected celebrates Vietnam Year), marking 35 fade, Mexico will be ill-prepared to Thai politics for the past decade. Under years of diplomatic relations. confront a new downturn. Source: US Bureau of the Census

THE WORLD IN 2010 The world in figures Countries 109 More growth, less debt Cuba peru Debt/GDP (bars, lefthand scale), % GDP growth (lines, righthand scale), % Latin America OECD Latin America GDP growth: 3.5% GDP growth: 3.0% 60 6 GDP: $59bn (PPP: $116bn) GDP: $134bn (PPP: $257bn) 50 5 Inflation: 4.7% Inflation: 2.3% 4 Population: 11.2m Population: 29.8m 40 3 GDP per head: $5,220 (PPP: $10,330) GDP per head: $4,520 (PPP: $8,610) 30 20 2 Handling the domestic backwash Tensions between indigenous 10 1 from global upheaval is routine for highlanders and a largely coastal elite 0 0 the Castros, and Raúl, who took over are returning to the fore and will present -10 -1 as president from Fidel in 2008, will a challenge to the administration of Alan -20 -2 squeeze government spending and García as the 2011 election approaches. -30 -3 discourage imports. More tentative steps Thirty people died in armed clashes -40 -4 will be taken in the long march towards in 2009, and Mr García has signalled a normalised relations with the US. harder line still, hinting at violence to 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 come. By contrast, the economy will perform smoothly. laTiN ameriCa eCuaDor GDP growth: 2.3% main event: Brazil’s presidential election in October GDP: $56bn (PPP: $110bn) uruguay latin american growth: 2.4% Inflation: 5.0% GDP growth: 2.0% Population: 14.2m GDP: $34bn (PPP: $45bn) argeNTiNa worst, and growth will resume in 2010. GDP per head: $3,960 (PPP: $7,770) Inflation: 7.1% Even so, the ruling Workers’ Party is Population: 3.3m GDP growth: 1.4% President Rafael Correa is beholden to GDP per head: $10,220 (PPP: $13,330) GDP: $293bn (PPP: $593bn) no shoo-in for re-election in October. the small parties on the far left that Inflation: 8.3% Voters have not taken to its candidate- prop up his coalition after his own party, A new year, a new government term, but Population: 40.5m in-waiting, Dilma Rousseff, and the Alianza País, lost majority control of the probably the same ruling party—José GDP per head: $7,230 (PPP: $14,630) opposition candidate, José Serra, who is legislature in 2009; this will ensure that Mujica of the Frente Amplio was Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is a lame- governor of São Paulo state, will shine as the radical populism driving his policies favourite ahead of late-2009 elections. duck president in danger of losing her economic hardship persists. continues. Default on a portion of the If he wins, he will take over from the job before her term ends in 2011. The foreign debt in 2008 scared off lenders, president, Tabaré Vázquez, in March, opposition controls the legislature and Chile but the government may repeat the though almost certainly at the head loyalty within her own Peronist Party tactic as external financing needs bite. of a minority government. With the GDP growth: 3.9% economy recovering, policy will shift to is sagging. Economic policies designed GDP: $170bn (PPP: $257bn) To watch: Flight plan. Quito’s new mainly to secure the Kirchners’ power Inflation: 2.3% an emphasis on fiscal rebalancing. airport, which increases capacity tenfold, base are being exposed by the global Population: 17.1m will open in 2010. recession. There is an outside risk of GDP per head: $9,950 (PPP: $15,010) veNezuela paralysing political protest and a new, The likely victory of Sebastián Piñera GDP growth: -3.4% home-grown economic crisis. of the right-of-centre La Alianza in the paraguay GDP: $333bn (PPP: $334bn) December 2009 presidential election GDP growth: 2.5% Inflation: 31.4% To watch: Gaucho gala.The country Population: 28.6m will mark the return of the right two GDP: $14bn (PPP: $29bn) celebrates 200 years of independence on Inflation: 5.1% GDP per head: $11,660 (PPP: $11,990) May 25th. decades after a military dictator, Augusto Population: 6.5m Pinochet, restored civil rule, but will The country will buck the global GDP per head: $2,140 (PPP: $4,510) signify little change in the consensus- trend of economic recovery and bolivia After a rough start, the government remain deeply in recession. With so led, pro-market policies that have GDP growth: 2.8% characterised the intervening years. The of the president and former priest, little revenue, there cannot be much GDP: $20bn (PPP: $47bn) Fernando Lugo, will get a shot in the more government stimulus. Moves to Inflation: 4.4% 2009 recession was shallow, and growth will resume. arm when fees start flowing in for centralise further government control Population: 10.1m GDP per head: $1,940 (PPP: $4,710) Brazilian use of energy generated on will deepen social divisions and lead to To watch: Out of Africa. The 32nd Dakar the Paraguayan side of the jointly outbreaks of violent protest. But Hugo The political divide will remain sharp, rally will again be held in the Andean owned Itaipú hydroelectric complex. Chávez’s revolution will roll on, and a with both the leftist president, Evo highlands between Chile and Argentina The cashflow will restore the budget to divided and harassed opposition will Morales, and Senate candidates in the in March. The event’s African home was surplus, and help raise economic growth. be unable to exploit the opportunity eastern opposition heartlands set to deemed too dangerous. Political capital from the Itaipú deal will presented by legislative elections in do well in the end-2009 elections. With strengthen Mr Lugo’s grip on power. December. Mr Morales confirmed in office until Colombia 2014, his state-led development model GDP growth: 2.4% 2010 iN persoN will become more entrenched. The GDP: $250bn (PPP: $418bn) Long known as the poorest country in the Western hydrocarbons windfall that financed Inflation: 4.1% hemisphere, Haiti has stumbled from one crisis to government stimulus spending in 2009 Population: 48.9m another since the Duvalier years. But under its prime will fade, subduing economic recovery. GDP per head: $5,110 (PPP: $8,540) minister, michèle pierre-louis, the country has an opportunity to make substantial and sustainable The centre-right is likely to retain power gains in both economics and politics. Her domestic brazil in the May election, but the two-term achievements are already considerable, holding GDP growth: 3.8% incumbent, Álvaro Uribe, may not be its together a diverse coalition and quelling a determined GDP: $1,669bn (PPP: $2,113bn) candidate after his party lost the contest opposition. Abroad, she has worked well with Inflation: 4.0% for leadership of Congress in 2009, Population: 196.8m international leaders and won some influential friends, setting back plans to lift a constitutional including Bill Clinton, a former US president. The tenure of Ms Pierre-Louis, GDP per head: $8,480 (PPP: $10,740) ban on third terms. If he isn’t, his former whose social-activist brother-in-law was assassinated in 1998, may conceivably In contrast to neighbouring Argentina, defence minister, Juan Manuel Santos, mark a turning-point in the country’s long battle with extreme poverty, bloody thrifty economic management has is the favourite, and would continue Mr confrontation and deep-rooted social injustice. cushioned Brazil against the recession’s Uribe’s pro-market economic reforms.

110 Countries The world in figures THE WORLD IN 2010 Against the current to be Mr Mubarak’s son, Gamal—will Countdown Current-account gap, $bn top the agenda in 2010, even if it Civilian deaths from violence 2005 2010 doesn’t happen. In the meantime 3,000 250 the government will continue with a 200 2,500 budget-busting programme designed 150 to support living standards and quell 2,000 100 popular discontent. 50 1,500 0 eThiopia 1,000 -50 GDP growth: 7.0% GDP: $35bn (PPP: $83bn) United Arab (excl Iraq) All Arab Saudi Arabia Iran Oil exporters Middle East & North Africa Kuwait Qatar North Africa Libya Emirates Algeria Non-oil exporters 500 Inflation: 12.0% Population: 75.1m GDP per head: $464 (PPP: $1,100) 0 2007 2008 2009 miDDle easT aND aFriCa Political tensions will rise around the May election, but the Ethiopian People’s Source: www.iraqbodycount.org main event: Mounting pressures in Iran, both political and economic Revolutionary Democratic Front will israel middle east & North africa growth: 4.4% stay in power. The IMF has rewarded the GDP growth: 2.3% government’s economic management GDP: $199bn (PPP: $207bn) sub-saharan africa growth: 3.1% with financial support, and a strong Inflation: 2.9% performance in agriculture, the mainstay Population: 7.6m Beti ethnic group. Still, his supporters algeria will gather round when needed, and of the country, will make this one of the GDP per head: $26,300 (PPP: $27,400) GDP growth: 4.6% a weakened opposition doesn’t pose world’s fastest-growing economies. The prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, GDP: $182bn (PPP: $301bn) much threat. Little is likely to happen and his coalition partners have 74 seats Inflation: 3.7% in the Knesset (that is, more than half) Population: 35.5m to damage Mr Biya’s overwhelming iraN GDP per head: $5,140 (PPP: $8,470) chances of winning re-election when but divisions within his government his term ends in 2011. GDP growth: 2.9% mean that his real authority is far The re-election of Abdelaziz Bouteflika GDP: $415bn (PPP: $889bn) weaker than that figure suggests. Likud, to a third successive presidential term To watch: Relieved. Sufferers from Inflation: 14.0% his own party, is holding up, but two in 2009 promises continuity but will prostate troubles will benefit from Population: 75.1m senior coalition partners are in trouble. the removal of a conservation ban on GDP per head: $5,530 (PPP: $11,840) also see increased instability as his A legal case threatens the effectiveness opponents, both liberals and Islamists, harvesting the Prunus Africana, an Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, re-elected in of Yisrael Beiteinu, while the Labour chafe at their lack of influence. indigenous tree whose bark yields a questionable vote in 2009, will be Party is divided and offers only faltering Discontent could be limited to street compounds beneficial in treating back firmly in the driving seat after a support. The government will use public protests, but could extend to attacks prostate-related conditions. shaky start to his second term. Critics spending to boost growth, at the cost of on the army or a renewed campaign of from within the conservative camp have a widening fiscal deficit. terrorist bombings. egypT been largely neutralised by the need to fight off the fury of the opposition GDP growth: 4.5% and the regime’s opponents in the West. JorDaN aNgola GDP: $212bn (PPP: $498bn) Inflation: 6.2% The end of the oil boom will expose the GDP growth: 3.0% GDP growth: 5.5% GDP: $23bn (PPP: $33bn) GDP: $98bn (PPP: $128bn) Population: 84.8m weaknesses in Iran’s economic model, GDP per head: $2,500 (PPP: $5,870) squeezing domestic financing while Inflation: 5.8% Inflation: 11.4% Population: 6.4m Population: 19.0m Despite the regime’s clear distaste foreign investment flows are restricted GDP per head: $3,590 (PPP: $5,150) GDP per head: $5,160 (PPP: $6,760) for public discussion of 81-year-old by sanctions. A property boom and a heavy reliance on José Eduardo dos Santos, president President Hosni Mubarak’s health (four tourism meant the country was exposed for the past three decades, will win newspaper editors were jailed in 2007 iraq to the global financial meltdown and re-election in a delayed vote likely to for publishing speculative stories), GDP growth: 6.2% ensuing economic slump, and the take place in 2010, and his Popular the succession will dominate political GDP: $91bn (PPP: $130bn) government will support domestic Movement for the Liberation of Angola thinking. The ruling party has said it Inflation: 6.1% demand regardless of the impact on the will continue to dominate politics. After will not choose a presidential candidate Population: 31.3m budget. Reform efforts will concentrate a temporary decline in oil exports under until 2011, when elections are due, but GDP per head: $2,910 (PPP: $4,150) on the economy rather than politics, OPEC’s quota regime in 2009, output will the shift to a new leader—presumed where King Abdullah will continue to Violence increased in the wake of the rally, pushing growth to 5.5%. withdrawal of US troops from Iraq’s cities dominate, with the support of the armed Widening budget gap forces. To watch: Ill wind. Mr dos Santos is $bn in mid-2009, but to nowhere near the Budget revenue rumoured to be ill. If he is forced to drop Budget expenditure level at the height of the post-invasion his re-election bid, the lack of succession conflict. Even so, the Iraqi armed forces keNya 80 candidates may stir up political conflict. will face a difficult year as bombings designed to widen sectarian divides GDP growth: 2.7% 70 GDP: $38bn (PPP: $66bn) CamerooN continue. Nuri al-Maliki, the prime Inflation: 6.5% 60 minister, will seek re-election in January, Population: 40.9m GDP growth: 1.4% though his decision to remain aloof from GDP per head: $940 (PPP: $1,610) GDP: $24bn (PPP: $42bn) 50 a new Shia coalition reduces his chances. Inflation: 3.2% The coalition government, combining Population: 20.0m 40 To watch: Yankees’ home run. President President Mwai Kibaki of the Party of GDP per head: $1,190 (PPP: $2,090) Barack Obama has said he’ll keep a National Unity and his prime minister President Paul Biya has taken flak 30 campaign promise to pull American and main political rival, Raila Odinga of for too energetic a focus on securing combat troops out of Iraq by August, the Orange Democratic Movement, will his personal power base—including, though up to 50,000 are likely to remain look pretty wobbly, much as it has since 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 unusually, from members of his own in support roles. its formation in 2008, although it will

THE WORLD IN 2010 The world in figures Countries 111 through a weak parliament, will keep 2010 iN persoN probably survive. But disagreements Fifteen years on, the ethnic bloodletting that took over key appointments and policy discontent on the boil—and keep security forces busy suppressing dissent close to a million lives in 1994 is still the main thing priorities will get in the way of effective most outsiders know about Rwanda. If the country government. An improved global and neutralising Islamist factions. Fiscal stimulus and a bumper harvest helped now begins to break free of that legacy, much of the environment will bring economic growth credit must go to paul kagame, the first directly back to 2.7% after the 2009 slowdown. the country avoid recession in 2009, and will contribute to a small improvement elected president since the genocide and all but in 2010. certain to win re-election in 2010. Mr Kagame, either lebaNoN on the throne or behind it since 1994, could work on Capital flights his sense of inclusiveness (he is particularly intolerant GDP growth: 3.3% GDP: $32bn (PPP: $48bn) Tourism receipts, $bn of internal dissent), but few doubt his commitment to propelling his country Inflation: 3.9% 8 into the modern era and raising the living standards of his people. Nevertheless, Population: 4.3m Rwanda remains at a fork in the road, and whether it takes the path to 7 GDP per head: $7,480 (PPP: $11,210) reconciliation and progress or to authoritarianism and repression will be decided 6 during Mr Kagame’s second term. Managing the sectarian jigsaw of Lebanese politics will remain at the 5 top of the agenda after Saad al- economic growth of recent years. His Hariri, emphatic winner of mid-2009 4 souTh aFriCa anti-corruption campaign will help elections, abandoned efforts to build 3 GDP growth: 3.1% his cause, and he remains personally a government in September. Mr Hariri GDP: $275bn (PPP: $498bn) popular. Donor-funded construction will 2 Inflation: 5.7% blamed opposition forces sponsored contribute to stronger economic growth. by Iran and Syria for blocking him. His Population: 49.1m 1 GDP per head: $5,610 (PPP: $10,140) opponents said his own mistakes sealed his fate. In contrast to the stuttering 0 Preparations for the soccer World Cup, to uNiTeD arab emiraTes 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 political process, competent economic be hosted by South Africa, have already GDP growth: 4.1% policy will deliver 3.3% growth. given a boost to the economy through GDP: $269bn (PPP: $191bn) Nigeria infrastructure spending. There is more Inflation: 4.2% To watch: Judgment day. The tribunal Population: 5.6m investigating the 2005 killing of a former GDP growth: 5.2% to come as football fans from around GDP: $167bn (PPP: $348bn) the world descend on the country’s big GDP per head: $48,280 (PPP: $34,310) prime minister, Rafiq Hariri, is likely to Inflation: 8.5% point the finger at Syria. cities. But the economic headwinds The economic downturn forced Dubai to Population: 152.2m will be strong, and maintaining living adopt a more cautious and rigorous way GDP per head: $1,100 (PPP: $2,290) standards will remain a challenge of doing business, but its ruler and the libya The government of President Umaru for the government of President UAE’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed GDP growth: Yar’Adua will face the difficult choice 5.1% Jacob Zuma. Unemployment will stay bin Rashid al-Maktoum, is expected to GDP: between pushing ahead with a $55bn (PPP: $121bn) alarmingly high, above 20%, causing a maintain his pro-business approach Inflation: 5.4% programme of important but unpopular lot of social unrest. to the administration of the emirate. Population: 6.5m market reforms and courting interest Politics will remain broadly stable, and GDP per head: $8,350 (PPP: $18,550) To watch: Rounders? If the FIFA World groups which favour the state-led Cup doesn’t appeal, try the International significant reform is unlikely in the Colonel Muammar Qaddafi, the world’s model and the subsidy structure Fellowship of Cricket-loving Rotarians’ coming years. A gradual increase in oil longest-serving ruler since the death that characterises it. The job will be World Festival, which will be held in output and the launch of several large in mid-2009 of President Omar Bongo all the more difficult because of the Durban in March. energy projects will help the economy to Ondimba of Gabon, will extend his record impact of the global slowdown on start growing again. by another year—and is on track to Nigeria’s economy, where the hard-hit For hire establish dynastic succession to one international oil market is a mainstay. Unemployment, % of his sons when the time comes. The However, strong performance in non-oil zimbabwe 30 colonel’s aim of improving ties with industries helped the country steer well GDP growth: 1.9% the West will continue to be weakened clear of recession in 2009, and rallying 29 GDP: $1.5bn (PPP: $1.9bn) by his idiosyncratic leadership style global demand will help push the 28 Inflation: 4.6% Population: 12.6m and policy decisions. Nevertheless, the growth rate to 5.2% in 2010—slow by 27 GDP per head: $120 (PPP: $160) country’s oil wealth ensures that the recent standards but far from disastrous. 26 rapprochement will carry on. Economic 25 The struggle between Robert Mugabe’s growth, which held at 4% in 2009 sauDi arabia Zimbabwe African National Union- 24 despite the global slowdown, will Patriotic Front and Morgan Tsvangirai’s accelerate to 5.1% in 2010. GDP growth: 3.3% 23 Movement for Democratic Change, which GDP: $472bn (PPP: $622bn) Inflation: 4.0% 22 theoretically share power in a unity government, will dominate politics. moroCCo Population: 26.2m 21 With each side seeking to undercut the GDP per head: $18,020 (PPP: $23,740) GDP growth: 3.4% other’s power base, progress towards 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 GDP: $99bn (PPP: $151bn) After the first recession in a decade in restoring economic stability will be Inflation: 2.6% 2009, economic policy will focus on Population: 32.3m halting and the threat of violence will be restoring growth, by distributing credit ever-present. By-elections were frozen GDP per head: $3,060 (PPP: $4,670) through the government’s lending TaNzaNia until late-2009 under the power-sharing Moroccans may not like laws that institutions, and increasing subsidies GDP growth: 5.0% deal, but clashes over vote-rigging are make it a major crime to question and other public transfers. The policies, GDP: $23bn (PPP: $59bn) Inflation: 8.0% inevitable as the election cycle resumes. the legitimacy of the monarchy, but combined with an improving global outlook, will drive growth to 3.3%. The Population: 45.0m To watch: Cheaper by the dozen. they do like the king, and Muhammad GDP per head: $500 (PPP: $1,310) VI, a decade on the throne, faces no price of oil will climb to an annual average Monthly inflation, which was estimated substantial threat to his authority. of $74, 19% up on 2009. Politics will Jakaya Kikwete, the president, is likely to at 231,000,000% in mid-2008, was down Nevertheless, poor standards of living see no big change, with King Abdullah win the election due in late 2010 even to 1% in August 2009 after the local and high unemployment, combined bin Abdul-Aziz al-Saud in control and though many voters believe they have currency was replaced by the dollar. It with the lack of popular representation democratic reform off the agenda. not benefited much from the strong will remain negligible in 2010.

Economist - Countries in 2010

by Innovation Tank on Dec 17, 2009

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Economist - Countries in 2010 — Document Transcript