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The Future of Food - scenarios and the effects on natural resource use in agriculture
 

The Future of Food - scenarios and the effects on natural resource use in agriculture

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One of the most important sustainability questions we face today relates to food. Everyone needs it, but we still face undernutrition in large parts of the world, while in other regions overnutrition ...

One of the most important sustainability questions we face today relates to food. Everyone needs it, but we still face undernutrition in large parts of the world, while in other regions overnutrition is a growing problem.

Can we feed our growing world population? Do we have the natural resources to supply the global population with their demand in 2050?

My research shows that we cannot feed the global population a Western diet; a diet high in meat and of which a lot is wasted.

Would you change your diet?
Ingrid Odegard

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  • From analysis of currentsituationandhistoric trends – these five drivingforcesNoem voorbeelden van wat ermee te maken heeftPopulation =totalglobalandregionalpopulationsEcdev = Diet, wastePolicy = waste, efficiency of fertilizationandirrigation, irrigated areaTechnologicaldevelopment = efficiency of fertilizationandirrigation, irrigated areaDiet = animal product consumption, shares of vegetable commodity consumption
  • The world land area = thus 2 is xx% of total

The Future of Food - scenarios and the effects on natural resource use in agriculture The Future of Food - scenarios and the effects on natural resource use in agriculture Presentation Transcript

  • The Future of Food
    Scenarios and the Effects on Natural Resource Use in Agriculture
  • Introduction
  • Scope
    What are the global and regional consequences, with respect to naturalresource use in agriculture, for four food scenarios evaluated for the year 2050?
    Introduction
  • Scope
    What are the global and regionalconsequences, with respect to resource use in agriculture, for four food scenarios evaluated for the year 2050?
    OECD90
    REF
    ASIA
    ALM
    Introduction
  • Scope
    Commodity groups
    Cereals
    Fruit
    Roots andtubers
    Pulses
    Oil crops
    Sugar crops
    Vegetables
    Meat
    Beef
    Pork
    Poultry
    Eggs
    Milk
    Includes feed
    93% of global kcal
    Introduction
  • Scenario Methodology
    Whatif…?
    NotThe Truth or The Future
    Variety
    Consistency
    Methodology
  • Population
    Economic Development
    Policy
    Technological Development
    Diet
    DrivingForces
    Methodology
  • Meat Consumption & Economic Development
    77 kg
    17 kg
    2200 US$
    9700 US$
    Keyzer, 2005
    Methodology
  • Food System Model
    Virtual Resource Content
    Methodology
  • Virtual Resource Content
    Input requirements
    Land: ton/ha (yield)
    Water: m3/ton
    Fertilizer: kg/ton (N, P2O5, K2O)
    Specifiedfor:
    Commodity groups
    Regions
    Methodology
  • Scenario Study
    economy
    2900 kcal
    2900 kcal
    regionalization
    globalization
    2800 kcal
    2800 kcal
    environment
    Methodology
  • Whatif..
    …there is a global shift to a Western diet?
    …regions have tobeself-sufficient?
    …we allbecomevegetarian?
    …we shift to low-input management?
    Methodology
  • Apparent Consumption and Intake
    2005 apparent consumption
    2005 intake
    Results
  • Production (ton/year)
    Results
  • Land Use (ha/year)
    VS+S+MS
    VS+S
    Results
  • Land Use
    Results
  • Water Use
    Critical water stress
    3
    Moderate water stress
    Results
  • Water Use in A2 – Full World
    3
    OECD90
    REF
    ALM
    ASIA
    Results
  • Fertilizer Use – N
    Years of Potassium A1: 2 A2: 66
    B1: 100 B2: 135
    Years of Phosporous
    A1: 55 A2: 121
    B1: 254 B2: 211
    Results
  • Scenario Conclusions
    A1 – Affluent World
    LANDWATER FERTILIZER
    A2 – Full World
    LANDWATER FERTILIZER
    B1 – VegetarianWorld
    LAND WATER FERTILIZER
    B2 – Low-Input World
    LANDWATER FERTILIZER
    Conclusions
  • Conclusions
    Strong negativecorrelation between land and fertilizer use
    Water use problematic
    Not enough resources to feed the global population a Western diet
    Conclusions
  • Recommendations
    Virtual Fertilizer Content & Organic Agriculture
    Trade & Water Use
    Animal product consumption & culture and religion
    Conclusions
  • Discussion
    Wouldyou change yourdiet?
    Discussion