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TRENDS IN GERMAN RETAIL
MARKET 2013
September 2013
Ingo Hartlief, COO der CORPUS SIREO Holding GmbH & Co. KG, Mitglied des Executive Committee
und Vorsitzender der Geschäftsführung des CSAMC
Asset Management Retail
CONTENT
1. Ingo Hartlief 03
2. Executive Summary 04
3. CSAMS Retail Team 05
4. German Economy 07
5. Investment Market 08
6. Leasing Market 11
7. Asset Manager’s Viewpoint 16
8. Contact & Disclaimer 18
Asset Management Retail
“The German economy continues to report stable growth, and this is reflected in good
private household sentiment. This is benefiting retailers in the shopping districts of
German cities. While international retailers are expanding existing and new concepts in
Germany, the prospects for retail properties continue to be positive.”
Ingo Hartlief is COO of CORPUS SIREO Holding GmbH & Co. KG.
In addition, Ingo Hartlief currently holds the following offices: CEO of CORPUS SIREO Asset
Management Commercial GmbH, Organe de Contrôle of CORPUS SIREO Investment
Management S.à r.l., Managing Director of CORPUS SIREO Asset Management Retail GmbH
and Managing Director of CORPUS SIREO Residential Asset Management GmbH.
Mr. Hartlief holds a degree in business administration and was a Member of the Executive Board
at Union Investment Real Estate in Hamburg from 2002 to 2010.
From 1999 to 2002 Ingo Hartlief led the Essen based Viterra Gewerbeimmobilien GmbH.
Previously, he worked for three years as Area Director of Viterra AG.
From 1991 to 1996 Ingo Hartlief was responsible for the Services- and Real Estate Division as
well as the Corporate Real Estate Management as part of the Executive Board staff at E.ON AG.
INGO HARTLIEF
Contact &
Disclaimer
CSAMS
Leasing
Market
AM’s
Viewpoint
Investment
Market
Ingo Hartlief
German
Economy
Executive
Summary
Asset Management Retail
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
 The German economy has solid fundamentals, with increasing private consumption, a low
unemployment rate and rising GDP, thus maintaining the attractive position of the German real
estate market for investors having a focus on security and a long-term investment strategy
 Retail share of consumer spending is stabilising at around 27%, highlighting the important role of the
retail market in the German economy
 Grocery operators dominate the retail food market; whereas pharmacies account for the highest
expected retail turnover increase in 2013
 Presence of international retailers has significantly risen over the past years; large-scale retailers
see the German market as their top retail growth destination
 Falling letting volumes in Top 7 locations underline the limited availability of highly desirable core
and core-plus retail properties. Demand for high-end retail space in inner-city areas keeps prime
rents at high levels
 Highest half year commercial transaction volume since 2007; €27bn transaction volume forecasted
for 2013; investors expect a lateral movement and constant prime yields
 Due to scarcity of core-products investors are extending their interest across the whole retail
spectrum, moving to attractive regional city locations as an option for placing their safety-oriented
investments
4
Contact
German
Economy
CSAMS
Leasing
Market
AM’s
Viewpoint
Investment
Market
Contact &
Disclaimer
German
Economy
CSAMS
Leasing
Market
AM’s
Viewpoint
Investment
Market
Ingo Hartlief
Executive
Summary
Asset Management Retail
RETAIL EXPERTISE AND TRACK RECORD
 Since 2009, CORPUS SIREO has continually
enhanced its retail expertise by acquiring retail
mandates and increasing the skill- and
knowledgebase
 In total CORPUS SIREO manages more than 330
retail assets with an NLA in excess of 500,000 sqm
 In addition c. €250m retail sales volume were
generated to date
 Proven track record in cost analysis, optimisation and
service charge reconciliation for retail assets
Based on this proven success, CORPUS SIREO
established a new division in July 2013, solely
focused on providing retail real estate asset
management services
 Foundation in July 2013
 Expansion and consolidation of retail capabilities
through acquisition of retail team (mfi)
 Further enhancement and reinforcement of
existing retail skill set and knowledgebase
 Retail services focus on Acquisition & Sales, Asset
Management, Centre Management, Structuring &
Financing
 International mind-set
 Reliable network of retail investors, tenants,
developers, financiers and service providers
 Excellent reputation in retail market
 In-depth knowledge of retail markets as well as
retail trends
CORPUS SIREO ASSET MANAGEMENT RETAIL
RETAIL EXPERTISE & TRACK RECORD
5
Leasing
Market
AM’s
Viewpoint
Investment
Market
Contact &
Disclaimer
German
Economy
Ingo Hartlief
Executive
Summary
CSAMC
Asset Management Retail
CORPUS SIREO’S ENHANCED RETAIL TEAM
 Development of a portfolio with a value of c. €1.7bn
including 6 large-volume shopping centres
 Transaction volume worth c. €1.2bn
 Acquisition of service contracts and joint venture
contracts with an investment volume of €0.8bn
 Fund raising Institutional Investors / Family Offices:
€500m equity
 Retail-specific external financing > €1.2bn
 On-site Management of five shopping centres
 International development and redevelopment of
large shopping centres on behalf of third parties 6
CORPUS SIREO ASSET MANAGEMENT RETAIL
TEAM RECORD
Thorsten Prior
Executive Director
 Client Management
 Acquisition of new mandates
 Asset and Portfolio Management
Georg Orlich
Senior Executive Manager
 Asset and Portfolio
Management
 Centre Management
 Letting
 Real estate marketing
and -
positioning
 Development of
projects and concepts
Dirk Wollweber
Director
Christoph Jauck
Senior Executive Manager
 Acquisition of
institutional investors
 Supervision / key
account investors
 Retail specific
consulting & valuation
 Transaction &
structuring
 Asset and Portfolio
Management
 Letting
 Project- and concept
development
 (Re-) Developments
 Site analysis and
feasibility studies
 Supervision of retail investors
 Transaction and structuring
CORPUS SIREO ASSET MANAGEMENT RETAIL
Guido Niesler
Senior Executive Manager
 Acquisition of Family
Offices and private
retail investors
 Key account Family
Offices and Private
Wealth
 Conception and
structuring of finance
and investment models
6
Leasing
Market
AM’s
Viewpoint
Investment
Market
Contact &
Disclaimer
German
Economy
Ingo Hartlief
Executive
Summary
CSAMC
Asset Management Retail
Germany 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014*
GDP Europe (%) -4.4 2.0 1.5 -0.6 -0.6 1.0
GDP Germany (%) -4.7 3.6 3.3 0.7 0.4 1.7
Private consumption Europe (%) -1.0 1.0 0.2 -1.3 -0.6 0.5
Private consumption Germany (%) 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.6 1.3 1.2
Unemployment rate Germany (%) 7.8 7.1 6.0 5.5 5.4 5.4
Source: Experian 2013
Source: Experian, Hahn Gruppe, Corpus Sireo 2013
ECONOMIC BACKGROUND
 Germany‘s economy still
increasing; outperforming in
Europe
 Increasing annual private
consumption by c. 3%
to €1.7tn until 2016
 Forecast inflation of 1.6% in
2013
 Saving ratio stable at c. 11%
since 2011
 Low unemployment rate of
c. 5.4%
 Increasing share of one-person
households from 30% to 40% till
2050
Key Economic / Retail Figures (2000-2016)
Key Facts of the European and German Economy
* forecast
**
* forecast
MODERATE ECONOMIC GROWTH, OPTIMISTIC CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR
Positive Economic Growth compared to European Pears
Positive Economic Growth and Private Consumption
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Real GDP Growth (%) Real Private Consumption Growth (%) Real Investment Growth (%)
*
Solid economic fundamentals
underline attractiveness of
German retail market
7
Leasing
Market
AM’s
Viewpoint
Investment
Market
Contact &
Disclaimer
Ingo Hartlief
Executive
Summary
CSAMC
German
Economy
Asset Management Retail
GERMAN RETAIL INVESTMENT MARKET
HIGHEST HALF YEAR TRANSACTION VOLUME SINCE 2007
 Germany’s solid economic fundamentals, diversified structure and increasing domestic consumption
make Germany an attractive investment market for real estate investors
 Investor’s still focus on core and core-plus products; a lateral market movement and constant prime
yields are expected
 A commercial transaction volume of €12.6bn in H1/2013 indicate a 34% increase to the previous
year. €27bn commercial transaction volume are forecasted for 2013
 Scarcity of core products in 1A locations hinder further transactions. Increasing demand for “broken
core products” and regional markets
 Disproportionately high growth of portfolio deals comparing to previous year. Packet-Deals have a
transaction volume of €3.4bn in H1 / 2013. Increase of 85% compared to previous year. Single
property deals still dominate the investment market
Transaction Volume by Sector
Quick Stats - Commercial Properties
Q2 2013 Q-o-Q
Investment Turnover (€ billion) 5.9

Number of Transactions 388

Prime Yield
Office (Top 5 locations) 4.80%

Retail (A-location) 4.38% 
Shopping-Centre 4.75% 
Retail Warehouse 6.00% 
Logistic 6.50% 
Prime Yield
Source: CBRE 2013
Source: CBRE 2013
Source: CRBE, Corpus Sireo 2013
€ 10.3bn € 18.8bn € 23.1bn € 25.3bn
Transaction Volume by Type of Use
€ 7.3bn € 10.3bn € 7.8bn€ 12.6bn € 4.2bn
37% 39%
29%
42% 44%
30%
39%
45%
31% 33%
5%
6%
5% 7%
8%
28%
16% 21% 20% 15%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 H1 / 2013
Office Retail Industrial Others
46% 45%
34% 30%
29% 25%
31%
27%
20% 29% 31% 41%
5% 2% 4% 2%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2011 2012 H1 / 2013
Shopping Centre Retail Warehouse / Centre
Retail (1A-location) Other
Shopping Centre A-location
Shopping Centre B-location
Retail Warehouse Centre
Retail Warehouse Market
Source: CBRE, Corpus Sireo 2013
8
Leasing
Market
AM’s
Viewpoint
Contact &
Disclaimer
Ingo Hartlief
Executive
Summary
CSAMC
German
Economy
Investment
Market
Asset Management Retail
GERMAN RETAIL INVESTMENT MARKET
Factors for Investment Decision
Properties with high Investment-
potential
INCREASING FOCUS ON RETAIL WAREHOUSE CENTRES
Future Retail Acquisition Focus
Investors turn Interest to Retail Warehouses
€38bn & €14bn Investment Market Potential in Shopping and
Retail Warehouse Centres
Investment Market Potential of Shopping and Retail Warehouse Centres
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Retail
Warehouses
Shopping Centre Highstreet SB-Markets DIY Stores Discounters
2012 2013
Demographic Trend
Competition through
Internet
Building Law
Restrictions
Trend of Consumption
Competition Retailer
Financing Conditions
Climate, Energy-
Efficiency
Trend of Concentricity
Importance
0
10
20
30
40
Top 7 Locations Regional Centre B Location Others Total
Shopping Centres Retail Warehouse Centres
in bn Euro
Properties with
Revitalisation Demand
New Properties with
long-term lease
contracts
Established Properties
with short-term lease
contracts
Developments
Increasing Potential
Source: Hahn Gruppe, Corpus Sireo 2013
Source: Hahn Gruppe, Corpus Sireo 2013
Source: Hahn Gruppe, Corpus Sireo 2013
Source: Hahn Gruppe, Corpus Sireo 2013
9
Leasing
Market
AM’s
Viewpoint
Contact &
Disclaimer
Ingo Hartlief
Executive
Summary
CSAMC
German
Economy
Investment
Market
Asset Management Retail
COMPARISION OF RETAIL FORMATS
ATTRACTIVE RETAIL FORMATS GAINING GROUND
Discounter Shopping Centre Retail Warehouse
Market Situation
 Discounters still dominating grocery market
with 43% of market share
 Declining differences between retailers due
to increasing range of product and diversity
increasing competition
 Netto has biggest store network, Lidl and
Aldi-North biggest sales area
 Due to high density of stores, Lidl and Aldi
focus on rationalising their store network
 On turnover basis Lidl is No. 1 due to Aldis
legally and financially independent Aldi North
and Aldi South corporate groups
 Net prime yield of c. 8.0%
Market Situation
 Majority of retail investments continue to be
in shopping-centres; investors continue to
focus on high-street prime assets
 Due to scarcity of core products international
investor turn their focus on broken core units
and regional city locations
 Share of shopping centre investment
declined to 30%, constant to declining prime
yield
 Dominant market leader for centre-
management is still ECE; best performing
shopping centre is Lago in Konstanz
 Net prime yield: c. 4.7 - 5.6%
Market Situation
 Increasing investor demand for retail
warehouses due to low availability of
shopping-centre investment opportunities
 Share of retail warehouse investments
declined to 27%; upcoming scarcity of retail
warehouse investment opportunities
 41 retail warehouse centres in Top 7 A-cities
 Energy-efficient and high quality buildings
with long-term tenant-contracts
 Retail warehouse agglomerations have an
average gross lettable area of 27,900 sqm
and centres an average GLA of 22,400 sqm
 Net prime yield: c. 6.0 - 7.0%
Operators
Turnover
2011
Number
of Stores
2011
Ø Sales
Area
[sqm]
1. Lidl € 14.4 bn 3,305 813
2. Aldi-Sued € 11.4 bn 1,800 796
3. Netto € 10.7 bn 4,090 740
4. Aldi-Nord € 9.8 bn 2,530 804
5. Penny € 6.7 bn 2,400 691
Discounter - Top 5 Operators
Source: CBRE, BNP, Deka Bank, Zeitung.net, Corpus Sireo 2013
Operators City Operator Grade
1. Lago Konstanz Prelios Dtl. 1.62
2. Centro Oberhausen Centro Mgnt. 1.67
3. Breuningerland Sindelfingen ECE 1.71
4. Alexa Berlin Sierra Mgnt. 1.74
5. Brücken-Center Ansbach Brücken-Center 1.80
Shopping-Centre - Top 5 Performing Centres
Source: EHI Retail Institute, CBRE, Hahn Gruppe, Corpus Sireo 2013 Source: EHI Retail Institute, CBRE, MEC 2013
Operators
Turnover
2011
Number of
Shops
2011
Ø Sales
Area
[sqm]
1. Obi € 3.7bn 342 7600
2. Bauhaus - 128 10080
3. Euronics € 2.4bn 1,915 249
4. Media Markt € 5.8bn 246 3224
5. Saturn € 3.2bn 149 3631
Retail Warehouses - Operators (Selection)
10
Leasing
Market
AM’s
Viewpoint
Contact &
Disclaimer
Ingo Hartlief
Executive
Summary
CSAMC
German
Economy
Investment
Market
Asset Management Retail
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
DEMAND FOR INNER-CITY AREA KEEPS PRIME RENTS AT HIGH LEVEL
….
City H1 / 2013 H1 / 2012 Change Ø 2008-2012
Berlin 17,900 35,400 -49% 46,000
Munich 6,700 13,200 -49% 19,800
Stuttgart 7,100 12,900 -45% 8,700
Düsseldorf 6,300 8,900 -29% 15,800
Hamburg 5,200 9,000 -42% 14,100
Hanover 2,800 8,200 -66% 10,800
Cologne 13,700 7,400 85% 17,400
Frankfurt am Main 12,700 6,500 95% 14,400
Leipzig 3,500 1,900 84% 8,200
Nuremberg 1,100 1,900 -42% 3,000
City H1 / 2013 H1 / 2012 Change Forecast
Munich 350 330 6% 350
Frankfurt am Main 290 290 0% 290
Düsseldorf 265 255 4% 275
Hamburg 255 250 2% 255
Berlin 280 240 17% 280
Cologne 250 240 4% 250
Stuttgart 240 235 2% 240
Hanover 185 185 0% 185
Nuremberg 165 160 3% 165
Leipzig 120 115 4% 120
Falling Lease Volume in Top 7 locations,
Increasing focus on Key Regional Cities
Stable Prime Rents in Top 10 Cities
Source: JLL, Corpus Sireo 2013
Source: JLL, Corpus Sireo 2013
Groceries and Fashion in Focus
Strong Demand for Smaller Retail Assets
Source: JLL, Corpus Sireo 2013
Source: EHI Retail Institute 2012
Letting Volume (in sqm)
Prime Rent (EUR/sqm/month)
Leased Retail Space by Size (%)
Share of Segments to Total Retail Turnover (%)
31%
20%14%
13%
6%
5%
10% Groceries
Fashion
DIY
Technic & Car
Leisure
Body & Health
Others
22%
28%
19%
19%
6%
6% < 100 sqm
100 - 250 sqm
250 - 500 sqm
500 - 1,000 sqm
1,000 - 2,000 sqm
> 2,000
11
AM’s
Viewpoint
Contact &
Disclaimer
Ingo Hartlief
Executive
Summary
CSAMC
German
Economy
Investment
Market
Leasing
Market
Asset Management Retail
SEGMENT OVERVIEW: RETAIL COMPANIES
 Germany’s high streets and
shopping centres are becoming
increasingly international
 Presence of international retailers
has significantly risen over the past
years
 Germany’s stabile / growing
economy attracts international
chains
 Groceries have 40% share of total
purchasing power, DIY products
11% and fashion 9%
 2/3 of new retail concepts since
2007 are with international
background
 Large-scale retailers such as
Abercrombie & Fitch, Primark, and
Forever21 have improved their
presence in Germany
INTERNATIONAL DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS FOCUS ON GERMANY
Germany as Hot Spot for Retail Companies in 2013/14
Germans retail market seen
as new top retail destination
in Europe
Source: CBRE 2013
12
AM’s
Viewpoint
Contact &
Disclaimer
Ingo Hartlief
Executive
Summary
CSAMC
German
Economy
Investment
Market
Leasing
Market
Asset Management Retail
SEGMENT OVERVIEW: RETAIL COMPANIES
GERMANY’S RETAIL COMPANIES STILL DOMINATING
Groceries such as Edeka and Rewe dominating Retail Market
Top 10 most active International Retailers in Germany
0 50 100
Besteller Group
H&M Group
Abercrombie &
Fitch
Rituals
McDonald's
Mango
Dänisches
Bettenlager
TK Maxx
Designal
Inditex Group
Number of retail transactions (new shops) in 2012
Source: CBRE 2013
Operators Turnover
Number
of Stores
1. Edeka € 47.2 bn 11,900
2. Rewe € 35.5 bn 10,840
3. Lidl € 35.0 bn 3,900
4. Aldi € 25.5 bn 4,300
5. Metro C&C € 13.6 bn 420
6. Tengelmann € 11.0 bn 4,500
7. Mediamarkt/Saturn € 9.6 bn 400
8. Lekkerland € 7.0 bn 59,000
9. Obi € 6.5bn 348
10. Otto € 5.9 bn -
Operators
Turnover
Europe
Turnover
International
1. Schwarz (DE) € 69.5 bn € 69.5 bn
2. Tesco (UK) € 62.2 bn € 89.2 bn
3. Carrefour (FR) € 56.2 bn € 76.8 bn
4. Aldi (DE) € 55.0 bn € 66.0bn
5. Rewe (DE) € 49.7 bn € 49.7 bn
Top 10 retailers in Germany
Top 5 food retailers in Europe
Turnover in Europe for 2012 in Billion €
Turnover in Germany for 2012 in Billion €
0 100 200
Rewe
Edeka
dm
Rossmann
Aldi
C&A
Das Depot
Woolworth
Ernsting's Family
KiK
Deichmann
Lidl
Netto
Takko
Gerry Weber
H&M
Camp David (Chelsea)
Denn's Biomarkt
Penny
Esprit
Most active Retailers in Germany
Number of retail transactions (new shops) in 2012
International Retailers German Retailers
Source: Retail-Index 2013
13
AM’s
Viewpoint
Contact &
Disclaimer
Ingo Hartlief
Executive
Summary
CSAMC
German
Economy
Investment
Market
Leasing
Market
Asset Management Retail
SEGMENT OVERVIEW: RETAIL BUILDINGS
Success Factors for Retailers
Demand for New Locations /
Sales Area
PHARMACIES IN RETAILER’S FOCUS
Pharmacies with highest expected Turnover Increase in 2013;
Groceries following:Importance
Expectations for Turnover in 2013
Building Law Restrictions, Competition and Demographics
most important factors for new Store Development
Source: Hahn-Gruppe, Corpus Sireo 2013
Source: Hahn-Gruppe, Corpus Sireo 2013
Source: Hahn-Gruppe, Corpus Sireo 2013
Factors for New Store Development
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Groceries Pharmacies DIY stores Fashion Others
Building Law Restrictions
Competition
Demographics
Trend of Consumption
Competition through Internet
Climate / Energy
Financing Conditions
low middle high
Location of Property
Price Policy
Quality and Service
Variety of Sortiment
Environment
Social / Image
Store Policy
0%
25%
50%
Increasing Stabile Declining
2012 2013
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Groceries Pharmacies DIY stores Fashion Others
Increasing Turnover Stabile Turnover Declining Turnover
Source: Hahn-Gruppe, Corpus Sireo 2013
14
AM’s
Viewpoint
Contact &
Disclaimer
Ingo Hartlief
Executive
Summary
CSAMC
German
Economy
Investment
Market
Leasing
Market
Asset Management Retail
SEGMENT OVERVIEW: RETAIL BUILDING TYPES
DECLINING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GROCERIES STORES
Specification of different Retail Building Types
Plot Size
[sqm]
Sales Area
Price
Segment
Market
Importance
Typical Tenants
Share
of Foodvery
small
small middle large very large
Rental Area -
< 500
sqm
500 -
1,500 sqm
1,500 -2,500
sqm
2,500 -
5,000 sqm
> 5,000
sqm
Small
Supermarket
Mostly shared site
with other tenants
X middle low small retailers >95%
Convenience
Store
Mostly shared site
with other tenants
X high low small retailers >95%
Supermarket 1,000 - 3,000 X middle middle - high Edeka, Rewe 90-95%
Discounter >5,000 X very low
high - very
high
Aldi, Lidl 80-95%
Large
Supermarket
>3,000 X low middle - high Rewe, Familia 70-85%
SB-Warehouse >15,000 X low middle - high Kaufland, Toom 60-80%
Pharmacies >1,000 X low - middle middle - high DM, Rossmann <5%
Boutique,
Specialist Shop
Depending on concept X X X X
X
Shopping-
zone
very high
high - very
high
Benetton <5%
Retail Warehouse
Depending on
concept;
>1,000
X
[zoo-food;
fashion]
X
[toys;
electrics]
X
[electrics;
furniture]
X
[furniture]
low - middle
high - very
high
Saturn, Deichmann 0%
Department Store Depending on concept middle -high - C&A, H&M 0%
Warehouse Depending on concept X -
Karstadt, Galerie
Kaufhof
<5%
DIY- Market Depending on concept X X low - middle - Bauhaus, Toom 0%
Source: KMPG, Corpus Sireo 2013
15
AM’s
Viewpoint
Contact &
Disclaimer
Ingo Hartlief
Executive
Summary
CSAMC
German
Economy
Investment
Market
Leasing
Market
Asset Management Retail
ASSET MANAGER’S VIEWPOINT
INCREASING MARKET REQUIREMENTS DEMAND DETAILED ANALYSES
Factors influencing Property Value
Performance of Asset Manager increasingly
important
Source: Corpus Sireo 2013
Investor Bank Tenant
Core Investors
 Net prime yield potential
of >5.0% required,
challenge due to return
hurdles, including
Solvency II
 Scarcity of retail
properties which fulfill
investors requirements
with low risk profile
Distressed Investors
 Distressed cash flow and
low availability of equity
for stabilising portfolio
 High deferred
maintenance in portfolio
 Average all capital WALT
per asset <5.0 years
 Properties mostly in B
and regional locations
 Increasing equity
requirements due to
Basel III regulations
 Banks tend to balance
sheet contraction, contra
productive to BP’s
 Investment opportunities
are scrutinised even
more closely for potential
risks
 Higher reporting
requirements lead to a
demand of more equity
 Real estate financing
becomes more
expensive
 Banks tend to sell than
invest, especially
regarding distressed
assets
 Bank’s very sensitive as
to AM/PM partners
 Increasing competition
due to declining
differences between
retailers leads to lower
margins
 Operators need more
flexibility in property and
locations
 Prolongations of lease
contracts are scrutinised
more closely
 Low willingness of long-
term lease contracts
and higher rent
 Long-term lease
contracts of >20 years
are of rarity and only
possible in return for
high investments in new
concepts of operators
Demand for sophisticated Asset Management Solutions
will increase
Parameter*
1. Market Rent
2. Exit Cap Rate
3. Increase of Market Rent
4. Structural Vacancy
5. Void Period
6. Capex / Repair & Maintenance
7. Costs of Void Period
8. Tenant Fit Out Cost / TI’s
9. Probability of Lease Prolongation
10. Duration of New Lease Contracts
WORST CASE REALISITC CASE BEST CASE
Difference of Valuation to Realistic Case
0
2
4
6
8
10
Demographics
Purchase Power
Competition
Turnover of Tenant
Quality of Building
Sales Area
WALT
Rent versus Market
rent
Factors influencing Sales Prices
16
Contact &
Disclaimer
Ingo Hartlief
Executive
Summary
CSAMC
German
Economy
Investment
Market
Leasing
Market
AM’s
Viewpoint
Asset Management Retail
INVESTORS PERSPECTIVE:
From an international perspective, the investor
appetite in the retail sector is still growing, with
core investors, like Sovereign Wealth Funds,
becoming active. The investors attention is
focussed on large standing investments and
homogeneous portfolios, which are increasingly
scarce in Germany. Hence international
investors recognise the need for experienced
local retail asset management partners as
property sources, who are also capable of
repositioning of different retail property types,
thus creating value.
Douglas Edwards
Managing Director
Thorsten Prior
Executive Director
Dirk Wollweber
Director
LEASING PERSPECTIVE:
Due to changing consumer requirements, e.g.
increasing importance of brands and fresh
products, differences between retail types (e.g.
discounters, supermarkets and retail
warehouses) are declining, thus increasing
competition between operators. Property
requirements and lease contract conditions are
impacted in turn. Accordingly, key success
factors for value enhancement, such as long
lease terms in excess of ten years and tailor-
made sustainable property strategies will be a
true asset management challenges.
Sven Bernstein
Associate Director
OPINION FROM OUR RETAIL EXPERTS
NEW CHALLENGES IN THE RETAIL MARKET
17
TENANT PERSPECTIVE:
For a long time, Germany was considered as
boring, but today international retail expansion in
Germany is proceeding at a feverish pace.
Retailers from abroad are prepared to pay prime
rents and to sign long-term leases. Strong
demand is especially noted for small and
medium-sized premises to accommodate
monolabel shops. The German retail market is
today the biggest in Europe and has fared better
than others in the Eurozone. Actually 5 German
cities are amongst JLL’s European Cross Border
retail Index Top 20, which underlines that
Germany offers a tremendous variety of top
retail destinations.
MARKET PERSPEKTIVE:
The visible first-quarter transaction volume of
2013 for retail properties in Germany is with
approx. €1.5bn slightly under the comparable
prior-year result. It is unlikely that the
outstanding volumes of 2010 and 2011 will be
reached in 2013 because of the ongoing
shortage of relevant assets, especially in the
large-volume core segment. Hence, a shift to
smaller lot sizes and “broken-core” or value-add
can be predicted, despite new international
retailers entering the German market.
Simultaneously special-purpose or equity funds
will gain more and more importance as well as
private investors.
Contact &
Disclaimer
Ingo Hartlief
Executive
Summary
CSAMC
German
Economy
Investment
Market
Leasing
Market
AM’s
Viewpoint
Asset Management Retail
CONTACT
Sebastian Köbele
Senior Associate Asset Manager
Jahnstraße 64
63150 Heusenstamm
T: +49 6104 664 134
M: +49 151 1408 9431
Sebastian.Koebele@corpussireo.com
YOUR CONTACT
CONTACT FOR RELATED ISSUES
Martin Lippmann
Senior Manager, Advisory
Jahnstraße 64
63150 Heusenstamm
T: +49 6104 664 171
M: +49 170 76 93 196
Martin.Lippmann@corpussireo.com
Thorsten Prior
Executive Director
Head of Asset Management Retail
Goethestraße 83-85
40237 Duesseldorf
T: +49 211 6877 6222
M: +49 151 6582 9918
Thorsten.Prior@corpussireo.com
18
Ingo Hartlief
CEO
CS Asset- &
Investment Management
Jahnstraße 64
63150 Heusenstamm
T: +49 6104 664 100
M: +49 178 778 8200
Ingo.Hartlief@corpussireo.com
Ingo Hartlief
Executive
Summary
CSAMC
German
Economy
Investment
Market
Leasing
Market
AM’s
Viewpoint
Contact &
Disclaimer
Asset Management Retail
DISCLAIMER
IMPORTANT NOTICE
19
COPYRIGHT: All rights to this edition reserved. Reprinting, including excerpts, subject to prior written permission. Photographs, charts, and layout
designed by the editorial desk are protected by applicable copyright laws. The data and information contained in this publication are based on
publicly available sources that the editor deems trustworthy. The CORPUS SIREO group of companies assumes no warranty regarding the
accuracy or completeness of the information. Any opinion offered represents the current assessment of the editor. No warranty is assumed in regard
to the opinions and forecasts ventured. Specifically, no liability is assumed for future developments in the real estate economy. The data and
information contained in this publication is subject to change without notice both during the time of its publication and thereafter.
Ingo Hartlief
Executive
Summary
CSAMC
German
Economy
Investment
Market
Leasing
Market
AM’s
Viewpoint
Contact &
Disclaimer

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Ingo Hartlief About Trends in German Retail Market

  • 1. TRENDS IN GERMAN RETAIL MARKET 2013 September 2013 Ingo Hartlief, COO der CORPUS SIREO Holding GmbH & Co. KG, Mitglied des Executive Committee und Vorsitzender der Geschäftsführung des CSAMC
  • 2. Asset Management Retail CONTENT 1. Ingo Hartlief 03 2. Executive Summary 04 3. CSAMS Retail Team 05 4. German Economy 07 5. Investment Market 08 6. Leasing Market 11 7. Asset Manager’s Viewpoint 16 8. Contact & Disclaimer 18
  • 3. Asset Management Retail “The German economy continues to report stable growth, and this is reflected in good private household sentiment. This is benefiting retailers in the shopping districts of German cities. While international retailers are expanding existing and new concepts in Germany, the prospects for retail properties continue to be positive.” Ingo Hartlief is COO of CORPUS SIREO Holding GmbH & Co. KG. In addition, Ingo Hartlief currently holds the following offices: CEO of CORPUS SIREO Asset Management Commercial GmbH, Organe de Contrôle of CORPUS SIREO Investment Management S.à r.l., Managing Director of CORPUS SIREO Asset Management Retail GmbH and Managing Director of CORPUS SIREO Residential Asset Management GmbH. Mr. Hartlief holds a degree in business administration and was a Member of the Executive Board at Union Investment Real Estate in Hamburg from 2002 to 2010. From 1999 to 2002 Ingo Hartlief led the Essen based Viterra Gewerbeimmobilien GmbH. Previously, he worked for three years as Area Director of Viterra AG. From 1991 to 1996 Ingo Hartlief was responsible for the Services- and Real Estate Division as well as the Corporate Real Estate Management as part of the Executive Board staff at E.ON AG. INGO HARTLIEF Contact & Disclaimer CSAMS Leasing Market AM’s Viewpoint Investment Market Ingo Hartlief German Economy Executive Summary
  • 4. Asset Management Retail EXECUTIVE SUMMARY  The German economy has solid fundamentals, with increasing private consumption, a low unemployment rate and rising GDP, thus maintaining the attractive position of the German real estate market for investors having a focus on security and a long-term investment strategy  Retail share of consumer spending is stabilising at around 27%, highlighting the important role of the retail market in the German economy  Grocery operators dominate the retail food market; whereas pharmacies account for the highest expected retail turnover increase in 2013  Presence of international retailers has significantly risen over the past years; large-scale retailers see the German market as their top retail growth destination  Falling letting volumes in Top 7 locations underline the limited availability of highly desirable core and core-plus retail properties. Demand for high-end retail space in inner-city areas keeps prime rents at high levels  Highest half year commercial transaction volume since 2007; €27bn transaction volume forecasted for 2013; investors expect a lateral movement and constant prime yields  Due to scarcity of core-products investors are extending their interest across the whole retail spectrum, moving to attractive regional city locations as an option for placing their safety-oriented investments 4 Contact German Economy CSAMS Leasing Market AM’s Viewpoint Investment Market Contact & Disclaimer German Economy CSAMS Leasing Market AM’s Viewpoint Investment Market Ingo Hartlief Executive Summary
  • 5. Asset Management Retail RETAIL EXPERTISE AND TRACK RECORD  Since 2009, CORPUS SIREO has continually enhanced its retail expertise by acquiring retail mandates and increasing the skill- and knowledgebase  In total CORPUS SIREO manages more than 330 retail assets with an NLA in excess of 500,000 sqm  In addition c. €250m retail sales volume were generated to date  Proven track record in cost analysis, optimisation and service charge reconciliation for retail assets Based on this proven success, CORPUS SIREO established a new division in July 2013, solely focused on providing retail real estate asset management services  Foundation in July 2013  Expansion and consolidation of retail capabilities through acquisition of retail team (mfi)  Further enhancement and reinforcement of existing retail skill set and knowledgebase  Retail services focus on Acquisition & Sales, Asset Management, Centre Management, Structuring & Financing  International mind-set  Reliable network of retail investors, tenants, developers, financiers and service providers  Excellent reputation in retail market  In-depth knowledge of retail markets as well as retail trends CORPUS SIREO ASSET MANAGEMENT RETAIL RETAIL EXPERTISE & TRACK RECORD 5 Leasing Market AM’s Viewpoint Investment Market Contact & Disclaimer German Economy Ingo Hartlief Executive Summary CSAMC
  • 6. Asset Management Retail CORPUS SIREO’S ENHANCED RETAIL TEAM  Development of a portfolio with a value of c. €1.7bn including 6 large-volume shopping centres  Transaction volume worth c. €1.2bn  Acquisition of service contracts and joint venture contracts with an investment volume of €0.8bn  Fund raising Institutional Investors / Family Offices: €500m equity  Retail-specific external financing > €1.2bn  On-site Management of five shopping centres  International development and redevelopment of large shopping centres on behalf of third parties 6 CORPUS SIREO ASSET MANAGEMENT RETAIL TEAM RECORD Thorsten Prior Executive Director  Client Management  Acquisition of new mandates  Asset and Portfolio Management Georg Orlich Senior Executive Manager  Asset and Portfolio Management  Centre Management  Letting  Real estate marketing and - positioning  Development of projects and concepts Dirk Wollweber Director Christoph Jauck Senior Executive Manager  Acquisition of institutional investors  Supervision / key account investors  Retail specific consulting & valuation  Transaction & structuring  Asset and Portfolio Management  Letting  Project- and concept development  (Re-) Developments  Site analysis and feasibility studies  Supervision of retail investors  Transaction and structuring CORPUS SIREO ASSET MANAGEMENT RETAIL Guido Niesler Senior Executive Manager  Acquisition of Family Offices and private retail investors  Key account Family Offices and Private Wealth  Conception and structuring of finance and investment models 6 Leasing Market AM’s Viewpoint Investment Market Contact & Disclaimer German Economy Ingo Hartlief Executive Summary CSAMC
  • 7. Asset Management Retail Germany 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014* GDP Europe (%) -4.4 2.0 1.5 -0.6 -0.6 1.0 GDP Germany (%) -4.7 3.6 3.3 0.7 0.4 1.7 Private consumption Europe (%) -1.0 1.0 0.2 -1.3 -0.6 0.5 Private consumption Germany (%) 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.6 1.3 1.2 Unemployment rate Germany (%) 7.8 7.1 6.0 5.5 5.4 5.4 Source: Experian 2013 Source: Experian, Hahn Gruppe, Corpus Sireo 2013 ECONOMIC BACKGROUND  Germany‘s economy still increasing; outperforming in Europe  Increasing annual private consumption by c. 3% to €1.7tn until 2016  Forecast inflation of 1.6% in 2013  Saving ratio stable at c. 11% since 2011  Low unemployment rate of c. 5.4%  Increasing share of one-person households from 30% to 40% till 2050 Key Economic / Retail Figures (2000-2016) Key Facts of the European and German Economy * forecast ** * forecast MODERATE ECONOMIC GROWTH, OPTIMISTIC CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR Positive Economic Growth compared to European Pears Positive Economic Growth and Private Consumption -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Real GDP Growth (%) Real Private Consumption Growth (%) Real Investment Growth (%) * Solid economic fundamentals underline attractiveness of German retail market 7 Leasing Market AM’s Viewpoint Investment Market Contact & Disclaimer Ingo Hartlief Executive Summary CSAMC German Economy
  • 8. Asset Management Retail GERMAN RETAIL INVESTMENT MARKET HIGHEST HALF YEAR TRANSACTION VOLUME SINCE 2007  Germany’s solid economic fundamentals, diversified structure and increasing domestic consumption make Germany an attractive investment market for real estate investors  Investor’s still focus on core and core-plus products; a lateral market movement and constant prime yields are expected  A commercial transaction volume of €12.6bn in H1/2013 indicate a 34% increase to the previous year. €27bn commercial transaction volume are forecasted for 2013  Scarcity of core products in 1A locations hinder further transactions. Increasing demand for “broken core products” and regional markets  Disproportionately high growth of portfolio deals comparing to previous year. Packet-Deals have a transaction volume of €3.4bn in H1 / 2013. Increase of 85% compared to previous year. Single property deals still dominate the investment market Transaction Volume by Sector Quick Stats - Commercial Properties Q2 2013 Q-o-Q Investment Turnover (€ billion) 5.9  Number of Transactions 388  Prime Yield Office (Top 5 locations) 4.80%  Retail (A-location) 4.38%  Shopping-Centre 4.75%  Retail Warehouse 6.00%  Logistic 6.50%  Prime Yield Source: CBRE 2013 Source: CBRE 2013 Source: CRBE, Corpus Sireo 2013 € 10.3bn € 18.8bn € 23.1bn € 25.3bn Transaction Volume by Type of Use € 7.3bn € 10.3bn € 7.8bn€ 12.6bn € 4.2bn 37% 39% 29% 42% 44% 30% 39% 45% 31% 33% 5% 6% 5% 7% 8% 28% 16% 21% 20% 15% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2009 2010 2011 2012 H1 / 2013 Office Retail Industrial Others 46% 45% 34% 30% 29% 25% 31% 27% 20% 29% 31% 41% 5% 2% 4% 2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2010 2011 2012 H1 / 2013 Shopping Centre Retail Warehouse / Centre Retail (1A-location) Other Shopping Centre A-location Shopping Centre B-location Retail Warehouse Centre Retail Warehouse Market Source: CBRE, Corpus Sireo 2013 8 Leasing Market AM’s Viewpoint Contact & Disclaimer Ingo Hartlief Executive Summary CSAMC German Economy Investment Market
  • 9. Asset Management Retail GERMAN RETAIL INVESTMENT MARKET Factors for Investment Decision Properties with high Investment- potential INCREASING FOCUS ON RETAIL WAREHOUSE CENTRES Future Retail Acquisition Focus Investors turn Interest to Retail Warehouses €38bn & €14bn Investment Market Potential in Shopping and Retail Warehouse Centres Investment Market Potential of Shopping and Retail Warehouse Centres 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Retail Warehouses Shopping Centre Highstreet SB-Markets DIY Stores Discounters 2012 2013 Demographic Trend Competition through Internet Building Law Restrictions Trend of Consumption Competition Retailer Financing Conditions Climate, Energy- Efficiency Trend of Concentricity Importance 0 10 20 30 40 Top 7 Locations Regional Centre B Location Others Total Shopping Centres Retail Warehouse Centres in bn Euro Properties with Revitalisation Demand New Properties with long-term lease contracts Established Properties with short-term lease contracts Developments Increasing Potential Source: Hahn Gruppe, Corpus Sireo 2013 Source: Hahn Gruppe, Corpus Sireo 2013 Source: Hahn Gruppe, Corpus Sireo 2013 Source: Hahn Gruppe, Corpus Sireo 2013 9 Leasing Market AM’s Viewpoint Contact & Disclaimer Ingo Hartlief Executive Summary CSAMC German Economy Investment Market
  • 10. Asset Management Retail COMPARISION OF RETAIL FORMATS ATTRACTIVE RETAIL FORMATS GAINING GROUND Discounter Shopping Centre Retail Warehouse Market Situation  Discounters still dominating grocery market with 43% of market share  Declining differences between retailers due to increasing range of product and diversity increasing competition  Netto has biggest store network, Lidl and Aldi-North biggest sales area  Due to high density of stores, Lidl and Aldi focus on rationalising their store network  On turnover basis Lidl is No. 1 due to Aldis legally and financially independent Aldi North and Aldi South corporate groups  Net prime yield of c. 8.0% Market Situation  Majority of retail investments continue to be in shopping-centres; investors continue to focus on high-street prime assets  Due to scarcity of core products international investor turn their focus on broken core units and regional city locations  Share of shopping centre investment declined to 30%, constant to declining prime yield  Dominant market leader for centre- management is still ECE; best performing shopping centre is Lago in Konstanz  Net prime yield: c. 4.7 - 5.6% Market Situation  Increasing investor demand for retail warehouses due to low availability of shopping-centre investment opportunities  Share of retail warehouse investments declined to 27%; upcoming scarcity of retail warehouse investment opportunities  41 retail warehouse centres in Top 7 A-cities  Energy-efficient and high quality buildings with long-term tenant-contracts  Retail warehouse agglomerations have an average gross lettable area of 27,900 sqm and centres an average GLA of 22,400 sqm  Net prime yield: c. 6.0 - 7.0% Operators Turnover 2011 Number of Stores 2011 Ø Sales Area [sqm] 1. Lidl € 14.4 bn 3,305 813 2. Aldi-Sued € 11.4 bn 1,800 796 3. Netto € 10.7 bn 4,090 740 4. Aldi-Nord € 9.8 bn 2,530 804 5. Penny € 6.7 bn 2,400 691 Discounter - Top 5 Operators Source: CBRE, BNP, Deka Bank, Zeitung.net, Corpus Sireo 2013 Operators City Operator Grade 1. Lago Konstanz Prelios Dtl. 1.62 2. Centro Oberhausen Centro Mgnt. 1.67 3. Breuningerland Sindelfingen ECE 1.71 4. Alexa Berlin Sierra Mgnt. 1.74 5. Brücken-Center Ansbach Brücken-Center 1.80 Shopping-Centre - Top 5 Performing Centres Source: EHI Retail Institute, CBRE, Hahn Gruppe, Corpus Sireo 2013 Source: EHI Retail Institute, CBRE, MEC 2013 Operators Turnover 2011 Number of Shops 2011 Ø Sales Area [sqm] 1. Obi € 3.7bn 342 7600 2. Bauhaus - 128 10080 3. Euronics € 2.4bn 1,915 249 4. Media Markt € 5.8bn 246 3224 5. Saturn € 3.2bn 149 3631 Retail Warehouses - Operators (Selection) 10 Leasing Market AM’s Viewpoint Contact & Disclaimer Ingo Hartlief Executive Summary CSAMC German Economy Investment Market
  • 11. Asset Management Retail REGIONAL OVERVIEW DEMAND FOR INNER-CITY AREA KEEPS PRIME RENTS AT HIGH LEVEL …. City H1 / 2013 H1 / 2012 Change Ø 2008-2012 Berlin 17,900 35,400 -49% 46,000 Munich 6,700 13,200 -49% 19,800 Stuttgart 7,100 12,900 -45% 8,700 Düsseldorf 6,300 8,900 -29% 15,800 Hamburg 5,200 9,000 -42% 14,100 Hanover 2,800 8,200 -66% 10,800 Cologne 13,700 7,400 85% 17,400 Frankfurt am Main 12,700 6,500 95% 14,400 Leipzig 3,500 1,900 84% 8,200 Nuremberg 1,100 1,900 -42% 3,000 City H1 / 2013 H1 / 2012 Change Forecast Munich 350 330 6% 350 Frankfurt am Main 290 290 0% 290 Düsseldorf 265 255 4% 275 Hamburg 255 250 2% 255 Berlin 280 240 17% 280 Cologne 250 240 4% 250 Stuttgart 240 235 2% 240 Hanover 185 185 0% 185 Nuremberg 165 160 3% 165 Leipzig 120 115 4% 120 Falling Lease Volume in Top 7 locations, Increasing focus on Key Regional Cities Stable Prime Rents in Top 10 Cities Source: JLL, Corpus Sireo 2013 Source: JLL, Corpus Sireo 2013 Groceries and Fashion in Focus Strong Demand for Smaller Retail Assets Source: JLL, Corpus Sireo 2013 Source: EHI Retail Institute 2012 Letting Volume (in sqm) Prime Rent (EUR/sqm/month) Leased Retail Space by Size (%) Share of Segments to Total Retail Turnover (%) 31% 20%14% 13% 6% 5% 10% Groceries Fashion DIY Technic & Car Leisure Body & Health Others 22% 28% 19% 19% 6% 6% < 100 sqm 100 - 250 sqm 250 - 500 sqm 500 - 1,000 sqm 1,000 - 2,000 sqm > 2,000 11 AM’s Viewpoint Contact & Disclaimer Ingo Hartlief Executive Summary CSAMC German Economy Investment Market Leasing Market
  • 12. Asset Management Retail SEGMENT OVERVIEW: RETAIL COMPANIES  Germany’s high streets and shopping centres are becoming increasingly international  Presence of international retailers has significantly risen over the past years  Germany’s stabile / growing economy attracts international chains  Groceries have 40% share of total purchasing power, DIY products 11% and fashion 9%  2/3 of new retail concepts since 2007 are with international background  Large-scale retailers such as Abercrombie & Fitch, Primark, and Forever21 have improved their presence in Germany INTERNATIONAL DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS FOCUS ON GERMANY Germany as Hot Spot for Retail Companies in 2013/14 Germans retail market seen as new top retail destination in Europe Source: CBRE 2013 12 AM’s Viewpoint Contact & Disclaimer Ingo Hartlief Executive Summary CSAMC German Economy Investment Market Leasing Market
  • 13. Asset Management Retail SEGMENT OVERVIEW: RETAIL COMPANIES GERMANY’S RETAIL COMPANIES STILL DOMINATING Groceries such as Edeka and Rewe dominating Retail Market Top 10 most active International Retailers in Germany 0 50 100 Besteller Group H&M Group Abercrombie & Fitch Rituals McDonald's Mango Dänisches Bettenlager TK Maxx Designal Inditex Group Number of retail transactions (new shops) in 2012 Source: CBRE 2013 Operators Turnover Number of Stores 1. Edeka € 47.2 bn 11,900 2. Rewe € 35.5 bn 10,840 3. Lidl € 35.0 bn 3,900 4. Aldi € 25.5 bn 4,300 5. Metro C&C € 13.6 bn 420 6. Tengelmann € 11.0 bn 4,500 7. Mediamarkt/Saturn € 9.6 bn 400 8. Lekkerland € 7.0 bn 59,000 9. Obi € 6.5bn 348 10. Otto € 5.9 bn - Operators Turnover Europe Turnover International 1. Schwarz (DE) € 69.5 bn € 69.5 bn 2. Tesco (UK) € 62.2 bn € 89.2 bn 3. Carrefour (FR) € 56.2 bn € 76.8 bn 4. Aldi (DE) € 55.0 bn € 66.0bn 5. Rewe (DE) € 49.7 bn € 49.7 bn Top 10 retailers in Germany Top 5 food retailers in Europe Turnover in Europe for 2012 in Billion € Turnover in Germany for 2012 in Billion € 0 100 200 Rewe Edeka dm Rossmann Aldi C&A Das Depot Woolworth Ernsting's Family KiK Deichmann Lidl Netto Takko Gerry Weber H&M Camp David (Chelsea) Denn's Biomarkt Penny Esprit Most active Retailers in Germany Number of retail transactions (new shops) in 2012 International Retailers German Retailers Source: Retail-Index 2013 13 AM’s Viewpoint Contact & Disclaimer Ingo Hartlief Executive Summary CSAMC German Economy Investment Market Leasing Market
  • 14. Asset Management Retail SEGMENT OVERVIEW: RETAIL BUILDINGS Success Factors for Retailers Demand for New Locations / Sales Area PHARMACIES IN RETAILER’S FOCUS Pharmacies with highest expected Turnover Increase in 2013; Groceries following:Importance Expectations for Turnover in 2013 Building Law Restrictions, Competition and Demographics most important factors for new Store Development Source: Hahn-Gruppe, Corpus Sireo 2013 Source: Hahn-Gruppe, Corpus Sireo 2013 Source: Hahn-Gruppe, Corpus Sireo 2013 Factors for New Store Development 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Groceries Pharmacies DIY stores Fashion Others Building Law Restrictions Competition Demographics Trend of Consumption Competition through Internet Climate / Energy Financing Conditions low middle high Location of Property Price Policy Quality and Service Variety of Sortiment Environment Social / Image Store Policy 0% 25% 50% Increasing Stabile Declining 2012 2013 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Groceries Pharmacies DIY stores Fashion Others Increasing Turnover Stabile Turnover Declining Turnover Source: Hahn-Gruppe, Corpus Sireo 2013 14 AM’s Viewpoint Contact & Disclaimer Ingo Hartlief Executive Summary CSAMC German Economy Investment Market Leasing Market
  • 15. Asset Management Retail SEGMENT OVERVIEW: RETAIL BUILDING TYPES DECLINING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GROCERIES STORES Specification of different Retail Building Types Plot Size [sqm] Sales Area Price Segment Market Importance Typical Tenants Share of Foodvery small small middle large very large Rental Area - < 500 sqm 500 - 1,500 sqm 1,500 -2,500 sqm 2,500 - 5,000 sqm > 5,000 sqm Small Supermarket Mostly shared site with other tenants X middle low small retailers >95% Convenience Store Mostly shared site with other tenants X high low small retailers >95% Supermarket 1,000 - 3,000 X middle middle - high Edeka, Rewe 90-95% Discounter >5,000 X very low high - very high Aldi, Lidl 80-95% Large Supermarket >3,000 X low middle - high Rewe, Familia 70-85% SB-Warehouse >15,000 X low middle - high Kaufland, Toom 60-80% Pharmacies >1,000 X low - middle middle - high DM, Rossmann <5% Boutique, Specialist Shop Depending on concept X X X X X Shopping- zone very high high - very high Benetton <5% Retail Warehouse Depending on concept; >1,000 X [zoo-food; fashion] X [toys; electrics] X [electrics; furniture] X [furniture] low - middle high - very high Saturn, Deichmann 0% Department Store Depending on concept middle -high - C&A, H&M 0% Warehouse Depending on concept X - Karstadt, Galerie Kaufhof <5% DIY- Market Depending on concept X X low - middle - Bauhaus, Toom 0% Source: KMPG, Corpus Sireo 2013 15 AM’s Viewpoint Contact & Disclaimer Ingo Hartlief Executive Summary CSAMC German Economy Investment Market Leasing Market
  • 16. Asset Management Retail ASSET MANAGER’S VIEWPOINT INCREASING MARKET REQUIREMENTS DEMAND DETAILED ANALYSES Factors influencing Property Value Performance of Asset Manager increasingly important Source: Corpus Sireo 2013 Investor Bank Tenant Core Investors  Net prime yield potential of >5.0% required, challenge due to return hurdles, including Solvency II  Scarcity of retail properties which fulfill investors requirements with low risk profile Distressed Investors  Distressed cash flow and low availability of equity for stabilising portfolio  High deferred maintenance in portfolio  Average all capital WALT per asset <5.0 years  Properties mostly in B and regional locations  Increasing equity requirements due to Basel III regulations  Banks tend to balance sheet contraction, contra productive to BP’s  Investment opportunities are scrutinised even more closely for potential risks  Higher reporting requirements lead to a demand of more equity  Real estate financing becomes more expensive  Banks tend to sell than invest, especially regarding distressed assets  Bank’s very sensitive as to AM/PM partners  Increasing competition due to declining differences between retailers leads to lower margins  Operators need more flexibility in property and locations  Prolongations of lease contracts are scrutinised more closely  Low willingness of long- term lease contracts and higher rent  Long-term lease contracts of >20 years are of rarity and only possible in return for high investments in new concepts of operators Demand for sophisticated Asset Management Solutions will increase Parameter* 1. Market Rent 2. Exit Cap Rate 3. Increase of Market Rent 4. Structural Vacancy 5. Void Period 6. Capex / Repair & Maintenance 7. Costs of Void Period 8. Tenant Fit Out Cost / TI’s 9. Probability of Lease Prolongation 10. Duration of New Lease Contracts WORST CASE REALISITC CASE BEST CASE Difference of Valuation to Realistic Case 0 2 4 6 8 10 Demographics Purchase Power Competition Turnover of Tenant Quality of Building Sales Area WALT Rent versus Market rent Factors influencing Sales Prices 16 Contact & Disclaimer Ingo Hartlief Executive Summary CSAMC German Economy Investment Market Leasing Market AM’s Viewpoint
  • 17. Asset Management Retail INVESTORS PERSPECTIVE: From an international perspective, the investor appetite in the retail sector is still growing, with core investors, like Sovereign Wealth Funds, becoming active. The investors attention is focussed on large standing investments and homogeneous portfolios, which are increasingly scarce in Germany. Hence international investors recognise the need for experienced local retail asset management partners as property sources, who are also capable of repositioning of different retail property types, thus creating value. Douglas Edwards Managing Director Thorsten Prior Executive Director Dirk Wollweber Director LEASING PERSPECTIVE: Due to changing consumer requirements, e.g. increasing importance of brands and fresh products, differences between retail types (e.g. discounters, supermarkets and retail warehouses) are declining, thus increasing competition between operators. Property requirements and lease contract conditions are impacted in turn. Accordingly, key success factors for value enhancement, such as long lease terms in excess of ten years and tailor- made sustainable property strategies will be a true asset management challenges. Sven Bernstein Associate Director OPINION FROM OUR RETAIL EXPERTS NEW CHALLENGES IN THE RETAIL MARKET 17 TENANT PERSPECTIVE: For a long time, Germany was considered as boring, but today international retail expansion in Germany is proceeding at a feverish pace. Retailers from abroad are prepared to pay prime rents and to sign long-term leases. Strong demand is especially noted for small and medium-sized premises to accommodate monolabel shops. The German retail market is today the biggest in Europe and has fared better than others in the Eurozone. Actually 5 German cities are amongst JLL’s European Cross Border retail Index Top 20, which underlines that Germany offers a tremendous variety of top retail destinations. MARKET PERSPEKTIVE: The visible first-quarter transaction volume of 2013 for retail properties in Germany is with approx. €1.5bn slightly under the comparable prior-year result. It is unlikely that the outstanding volumes of 2010 and 2011 will be reached in 2013 because of the ongoing shortage of relevant assets, especially in the large-volume core segment. Hence, a shift to smaller lot sizes and “broken-core” or value-add can be predicted, despite new international retailers entering the German market. Simultaneously special-purpose or equity funds will gain more and more importance as well as private investors. Contact & Disclaimer Ingo Hartlief Executive Summary CSAMC German Economy Investment Market Leasing Market AM’s Viewpoint
  • 18. Asset Management Retail CONTACT Sebastian Köbele Senior Associate Asset Manager Jahnstraße 64 63150 Heusenstamm T: +49 6104 664 134 M: +49 151 1408 9431 Sebastian.Koebele@corpussireo.com YOUR CONTACT CONTACT FOR RELATED ISSUES Martin Lippmann Senior Manager, Advisory Jahnstraße 64 63150 Heusenstamm T: +49 6104 664 171 M: +49 170 76 93 196 Martin.Lippmann@corpussireo.com Thorsten Prior Executive Director Head of Asset Management Retail Goethestraße 83-85 40237 Duesseldorf T: +49 211 6877 6222 M: +49 151 6582 9918 Thorsten.Prior@corpussireo.com 18 Ingo Hartlief CEO CS Asset- & Investment Management Jahnstraße 64 63150 Heusenstamm T: +49 6104 664 100 M: +49 178 778 8200 Ingo.Hartlief@corpussireo.com Ingo Hartlief Executive Summary CSAMC German Economy Investment Market Leasing Market AM’s Viewpoint Contact & Disclaimer
  • 19. Asset Management Retail DISCLAIMER IMPORTANT NOTICE 19 COPYRIGHT: All rights to this edition reserved. Reprinting, including excerpts, subject to prior written permission. Photographs, charts, and layout designed by the editorial desk are protected by applicable copyright laws. The data and information contained in this publication are based on publicly available sources that the editor deems trustworthy. The CORPUS SIREO group of companies assumes no warranty regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information. Any opinion offered represents the current assessment of the editor. No warranty is assumed in regard to the opinions and forecasts ventured. Specifically, no liability is assumed for future developments in the real estate economy. The data and information contained in this publication is subject to change without notice both during the time of its publication and thereafter. Ingo Hartlief Executive Summary CSAMC German Economy Investment Market Leasing Market AM’s Viewpoint Contact & Disclaimer