Multiple Benefits of SLCPMitigation in Alpine and Polar           Regions       Johan C.I. KuylenstiernaDirector, Stockhol...
UNEP/WMO Integrated Assessment of Black     Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone  Johan Kuylenstierna, Stockholm Environment Inst...
Near-term Climate and   Clean Air Benefits:  Actions for Controlling   Short-Lived Climate         ForcersLead authors: Jo...
Climate and Clean Air Coalition to reduce               Short-Lived Climate PollutantsThere is a lot of scientific and pol...
What are short-lived climate pollutants?Short-lived climate pollutants: Cause globalwarming & relatively short-lived in th...
Lifetimes in the atmosphere
Air pollution: unfinished business on the              sustainable development agenda                              Outdoor...
Ground level ozone increasing over wide areas                           Due to methane                           and other...
Impact of the Tropospheric Ozone on Crop yields                 Exposure of wheat to ozone in Pakistan                    ...
A package of 16 measures can substantially reduce      emissions and achieve multiple benefitsIIASA ranked mitigation meas...
The measures aiming at reducing methane emissionsIntermittent aeration -paddy   Recovery from wastewater   Recovery from o...
The measures aiming to reduce black carbon                    emissions Improved biomass stoves         Modern coke ovens ...
Effect of measures on emissions projected in 2030 relative to 2005      9 BC measures      reduce      ̴80% of BCReference...
Premature mortality avoided (1000s of deaths)   2.4 million avoided premature deaths - from outdoor PM                    ...
Health Benefits by Country
About 32 (range 21-57) million tonnes yield loss avoided                          in 2030            reduces air pollution...
Crop Benefits in Different Countries
Temperature changes over 20th CenturySource: NASA GISS
Estimated historic contributions to Arctic warming from  CO2 and from SLCFs. Reflective aerosols produced asubstantial coo...
Global and regional temperature changes relative to      2009 projected under the reference scenario for                  ...
Result for Global Temperature Change:            CO2 and SLCF measures are complementary strategiesSource: UNEP/WMO (2011)...
The share of global temperature reduction from methane measures
The share of global temperature reduction from methane measures
Near-term framing               National action against air pollution                 can slow down global warmingSlowing ...
Time series estimates of glacier mass balance in   different regions of the world (from Kaser et al., 2006).Panel a. shows...
Global and Regional Temperature Change Relative to the Reference Scenario (hybrid modelling of GISS, ECHAM               i...
Global and Regional Temperature Change Relative to the         Reference Scenario (modelling using of GISS)Global and regi...
Annual average surface temperature change (ºC) from               implementing all measures• Dark areas: where the biggest...
Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from                  implementing all measures•   Dark areas: where the forci...
Regional Climate Changes: Preventing Disturbance of                    Rainfall Patterns   Change in atmospheric forcing a...
How much does it cost?              Costs of implementing 16 measures 50% of black carbon and methane emission reductions:...
Conclusions• Addressing SLCPs is a development issue – countries  reducing emissions will benefit from improved health (av...
‘An Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and                  Tropospheric Ozone’http://www.unep.org/dewa/Portals/67/pdf/...
Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from                  implementing all measures•   Dark areas: where the forci...
How much does it cost?            Costs of implementing 16 measuresGROUP 1: Cost Savings or Low Cost e.g.- Recovery and ut...
Actions on the National, Regional and Global ScalesWhy national action?• Most health benefits close to emission sources;  ...
Actions on the National, Regional and Global ScalesWhy national action?• Most health benefits close to emission sources; l...
Political action now: the CoalitionCoalition for Climate and Clean AirFebruary, 2012: 6 countries + UNEPEnd 2012: + 10 cou...
ConclusionsUrgent questions about SLCPs require scientists and other experts to   work on two tracks:3. Quick response  C...
Further thoughtsCoalition needs to achieve some rapid successes –showing progress over the next yearTo encourage further p...
Observed (left) and modelled (right) surface BC         concentrations (ng/m3) (Koch et al., 2009a).•   showing rather spa...
Black carbon and ozone concentrations (daily averages)  measured from March 2006 to February 2008 at the GAW- WMO Global s...
Impact of the Measures on Health and                            Crop yields•   Models give PM2.5 and ozone concentrations ...
Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from                  implementing all measures•   Dark areas: where the forci...
Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from                  implementing all measures•   Dark areas: where the forci...
Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from                  implementing all measures•   Dark areas: where the forci...
Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from                  implementing all measures•   Dark areas: where the forci...
Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from                implementing all measures•   Dark areas: where the forcing...
Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from                  implementing all measures•   Dark areas: where the forci...
Warming in different latitude bands due to O3 and      aerosols only following the reference scenario for      emission pr...
stratosphere                                   Tropospheric Ozone                                           stratospheric ...
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Multiple Benefits of SLCP Mitigation in Alpine and Polar Regions

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Presentation of Johan C.I. Kuylenstierna, Director of the Stockholm Environment Institute York Centre

It describe the main findings of an Integrated Assessment developed under UNEP and WMO on tropospheric ozone and black carbon. This has been put together by key experts around the globe, with Drew Shindell of NASA-GISS as the Chair of the Assessment and which has been coordinated by the Stockholm Environment Institute. Tropospheric ozone is ozone which is formed in the lower atmosphere – different from Stratospheric ozone layer. This ozone is not emitted but created in the atmosphere from emitted precursors, of which methane and carbon monoxide are important ones. Black carbon is emitted as particles of carbon – essentially the main compnent of soot. These substances warm the atmosphere and act as air pollutants and there has been a lot of interest recently in the potential for reducing climate warming by addressing these substances.

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  • I will describe the main findings of an Integrated Assessment developed under UNEP and WMO on tropospheric ozone and black carbon. This has been put together by key experts around the globe, with Drew Shindell of NASA-GISS as the Chair of the Assessment and which has been coordinated by the Stockholm Environment Institute. Tropospheric ozone is ozone which is formed in the lower atmosphere – different from Stratospheric ozone layer. This ozone is not emitted but created in the atmosphere from emitted precursors, of which methane and carbon monoxide are important ones. Black carbon is emitted as particles of carbon – essentially the main compnent of soot. These substances warm the atmosphere and act as air pollutants and there has been a lot of interest recently in the potential for reducing climate warming by addressing these substances.
  • I will describe the main findings of an Integrated Assessment developed under UNEP and WMO on tropospheric ozone and black carbon. This has been put together by key experts around the globe, with Drew Shindell of NASA-GISS as the Chair of the Assessment and which has been coordinated by the Stockholm Environment Institute. Tropospheric ozone is ozone which is formed in the lower atmosphere – different from Stratospheric ozone layer. This ozone is not emitted but created in the atmosphere from emitted precursors, of which methane and carbon monoxide are important ones. Black carbon is emitted as particles of carbon – essentially the main compnent of soot. These substances warm the atmosphere and act as air pollutants and there has been a lot of interest recently in the potential for reducing climate warming by addressing these substances.
  • How much?
  • What is payoff of reducing these substances? Indoor air pollution [Assist] developing countries in providing affordable energy to rural communities, particularly to reduce dependence on traditional fuel sources for cooking and heating, which affect the health of women and children Johannesburg Plan of Implementation, para. 56(d) Outdoor air pollution Enhance cooperation at the international, regional and national levels to reduce air pollution, including transboundary air pollution [and] acid deposition… Johannesburg Plan of Implementation, para. 39 Start with bad news AP destroying the health of millions, esp. in developing countries. Europe: Euro 38-105 B/ yr in late 2000s Supporting the Millennium Development Goals (WHO Indoor Air Pollution fact sheet, Sept. 2011) Tackling indoor air pollution will help achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), in particular MDG 4 (reduce child mortality) and MDG 5 (improve maternal health). It will also contribute to gender equality (MDG 3) as well as freeing women's time for income generation that helps eradicate extreme poverty and hunger (MDG 1). Finally, clean household energy can help ensure environmental sustainability (MDG 7). WHO reports annually on the proportion of the population using solid fuels for cooking as a key indicator for assessing progress in health and development. Cook stove-smoke-image-South Asia: http://c96267.r67.cf3.rackcdn.com/stove_kirk_smith.jpg
  • HTAP (2010). Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution, 2010. Part A: Ozone and Particulate Matter. Air Pollution Studies No. 17. (eds. Dentener, F., Keating T. and Akimoto, H. Prepared by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP) acting within the framework of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP) of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE). United Nations, New York and Geneva 4 crops maize, wheat, soybeans, rice Total 13 MT
  • Ozone impacts health and crop yields (c.f. The impact on wheat in Pakistan – biggest pollutaqnt impacts on crop yields and ecosystem) PM is affected by BC measures – big impact on health crop yield benefits come from ozone concentration reductions
  • Elaborated by M. Amann Image of cook stove: UNEP Cook Stove Initiative 21 September 2010 – A United Nations-backed intervention involving cook stoves holds the promise of saving lives, uplifting health, improving regional environments, reducing deforestation, empowering local entrepreneurs, speeding development, and helping to stem global climate change.The United Nations Environment Programme ( UNEP ) has joined international efforts to dramatically boost the efficiency of some 3 billion cook stoves across Africa, Asia and Latin America, with the aim to protect women’s health and provide significant environmental benefits. The Global Alliance for Clean Cook Stoves was launched today on the margins of the General Assembly summit to review progress on the global anti-poverty targets known as the Millennium Development Goals ( MDGs ). Part of the Clinton Global Initiative spearheaded by the UN Foundation , the Global Alliance aims to cut the estimated 1.6 million to 1.8 million premature deaths linked with indoor emissions from inefficient cook stoves. From Climate Avenue Website: Enhanced Coal Bed Methane Recovery (ECBM): Carbon dioxide is injected in to un-mined coal seams to displace methane; injection enables methane recovery and carbon dioxide sequestration. The factors still limiting the implementation of ECBM  are economical, technological and limited understanding of fundamental issues related to ECBM. Photo: Enhanced Coal Bed Methane Recovery CBM has advantages over the CMM method of extracting methane: CBM facilitates extraction of gas from coal seams prior to mining the coal, thus reducing the potential danger of explosion caused by methane when carrying out traditional mining methods Its methane quality allows the extracted methane to be fed directly into the gas distribution network. This is to be contrasted with CMM/AMM which normally has a higher carbon dioxide mix and as such is not suitable for direct introduction.
  • This shows the Integrated result of applying all measures to sectors – for temperature health and crop yields The first graph shows the temperature result – all measures result in about half a degree reduction in warming, of which about half is due to mehtane measures and half to black carbon measures, and the uncertainty is greater for BC measures. The result for helth shows that the largest beenfit is from PM2.5 reduction assocated with the BC measures and this is about 2.5 million avoided premature deaths annnually across the globe. For crop yields the both BC and methaqne measures contfribute to the reduction i n ozone precursors leading to reduced losses in yield from wheat, rice, maize and soybean globally in the order of 50 million tonnes annually
  • This shows the Integrated result of applying all measures to sectors – for temperature health and crop yields The first graph shows the temperature result – all measures result in about half a degree reduction in warming, of which about half is due to mehtane measures and half to black carbon measures, and the uncertainty is greater for BC measures. The result for helth shows that the largest beenfit is from PM2.5 reduction assocated with the BC measures and this is about 2.5 million avoided premature deaths annnually across the globe. For crop yields the both BC and methaqne measures contfribute to the reduction i n ozone precursors leading to reduced losses in yield from wheat, rice, maize and soybean globally in the order of 50 million tonnes annually
  • Impact on global warming shown in this graph. The assessment calculated a reference scenario – extrapolating current trends – consistent with IPCC – if we carry on emitting according to current trends in energy use and technology then the world is heading for an increase in ptemperature that exceeds 2oC some time towards the middle of this century. If we manage to reduce CO2 emissions consistent with a 450ppm scenario as developed by IEA, which is fairly ambitious then the tmerature increase slows, but only in the long-term as it takes some time for the CO2 decreases to affect global temperature, and there is a good chance that 2oC will be exceeded. If we implement fully the Methane and BC measures identified in the assessment, starting now and implemented by 2030, the rate of temperature increase reduces in the first half of this century, leading to a 0.5oC reduction in warming, about half of the warming projected by the reference scenario for 2050. But without any reduction in CO2, then the temperature increases in parallel to the reference scenario due to the influence of CO and exceeds the 2oC target in the latter half of the century, but a couple of decades later than the reference case. However, a combination of the near-term measures on methane and BC in combination with the ambitious CO2 emission reductions slow the rate of warming in the near term and reduces the long term wamring and there is an increased chance of avoiding crossing the 2oC target during this century
  • Impact on global warming shown in this graph. The assessment calculated a reference scenario – extrapolating current trends – consistent with IPCC – if we carry on emitting according to current trends in energy use and technology then the world is heading for an increase in ptemperature that exceeds 2oC some time towards the middle of this century. If we manage to reduce CO2 emissions consistent with a 450ppm scenario as developed by IEA, which is fairly ambitious then the tmerature increase slows, but only in the long-term as it takes some time for the CO2 decreases to affect global temperature, and there is a good chance that 2oC will be exceeded. If we implement fully the Methane and BC measures identified in the assessment, starting now and implemented by 2030, the rate of temperature increase reduces in the first half of this century, leading to a 0.5oC reduction in warming, about half of the warming projected by the reference scenario for 2050. But without any reduction in CO2, then the temperature increases in parallel to the reference scenario due to the influence of CO and exceeds the 2oC target in the latter half of the century, but a couple of decades later than the reference case. However, a combination of the near-term measures on methane and BC in combination with the ambitious CO2 emission reductions slow the rate of warming in the near term and reduces the long term wamring and there is an increased chance of avoiding crossing the 2oC target during this century
  • The potential for glacial lakes to cause devastation became reality in Bhutan on the 7th October 1994 when Luggye Tsho, one of the lakes in the Lunana region, burst through its left lateral moraine (see Fig. 8–10). The ensuing Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF), which contained an estimated 18 million cubic meters of water, debris and trees, swept downstream, killed 21 people, and travelled over 204 km before crossing the border into India and finally dissipating.
  • Now if we look more closely into the effect of the different measures, we can say that the methane measures have similar impacts on warming in different world regions and the uncertainty is failry low as there is a lot of knowledge concerning the effects of methane in the atmosphere. However the assessment has shown that methane is more important for ozone formation than was previously understood, which makes it even more effective at reducing warming. However, when the BC measures are added, it can be seen that there is a greater regional difference in the effect on warming – greater benefits in the North – and in the Arctic where the reduction in warming is greater than the global average – 0.7 oC reduction or about 2/3 of the warming projected for this region. This is clearly important given the rate of melting that is already being seen in the Arctic and whilst the measures would not halt increased warming, they could reduce it significantly and this could help avoid dangerous changes in that region. Not only the impacts of BC in the atmosphere, but also the impacts of depositon of BC on snow and ice is important as the derkaning of the snow and ice leads to increased melting rates. This is also important for other glacial areas such as Himalayas. There are also other regional impacts on climate not captured by looking at global temperature changes. These include changes in rainfall distribution – e.g. Affecting S Asian monsoon, and reducing BC would shift rainfall patterns back to a more pre-industrial distribution. Black carbon measures are also associated with a greater uncertainty in comparison to methane measures.
  • Now if we look more closely into the effect of the different measures, we can say that the methane measures have similar impacts on warming in different world regions and the uncertainty is failry low as there is a lot of knowledge concerning the effects of methane in the atmosphere. However the assessment has shown that methane is more important for ozone formation than was previously understood, which makes it even more effective at reducing warming. However, when the BC measures are added, it can be seen that there is a greater regional difference in the effect on warming – greater benefits in the North – and in the Arctic where the reduction in warming is greater than the global average – 0.7 oC reduction or about 2/3 of the warming projected for this region. This is clearly important given the rate of melting that is already being seen in the Arctic and whilst the measures would not halt increased warming, they could reduce it significantly and this could help avoid dangerous changes in that region. Not only the impacts of BC in the atmosphere, but also the impacts of depositon of BC on snow and ice is important as the derkaning of the snow and ice leads to increased melting rates. This is also important for other glacial areas such as Himalayas. There are also other regional impacts on climate not captured by looking at global temperature changes. These include changes in rainfall distribution – e.g. Affecting S Asian monsoon, and reducing BC would shift rainfall patterns back to a more pre-industrial distribution. Black carbon measures are also associated with a greater uncertainty in comparison to methane measures.
  • Image of cook stove: UNEP Cook Stove Initiative 21 September 2010 – A United Nations-backed intervention involving cook stoves holds the promise of saving lives, uplifting health, improving regional environments, reducing deforestation, empowering local entrepreneurs, speeding development, and helping to stem global climate change.The United Nations Environment Programme ( UNEP ) has joined international efforts to dramatically boost the efficiency of some 3 billion cook stoves across Africa, Asia and Latin America, with the aim to protect women’s health and provide significant environmental benefits. The Global Alliance for Clean Cook Stoves was launched today on the margins of the General Assembly summit to review progress on the global anti-poverty targets known as the Millennium Development Goals ( MDGs ). Part of the Clinton Global Initiative spearheaded by the UN Foundation , the Global Alliance aims to cut the estimated 1.6 million to 1.8 million premature deaths linked with indoor emissions from inefficient cook stoves. From Climate Avenue Website: Enhanced Coal Bed Methane Recovery (ECBM): Carbon dioxide is injected in to un-mined coal seams to displace methane; injection enables methane recovery and carbon dioxide sequestration. The factors still limiting the implementation of ECBM  are economical, technological and limited understanding of fundamental issues related to ECBM. Photo: Enhanced Coal Bed Methane Recovery CBM has advantages over the CMM method of extracting methane: CBM facilitates extraction of gas from coal seams prior to mining the coal, thus reducing the potential danger of explosion caused by methane when carrying out traditional mining methods Its methane quality allows the extracted methane to be fed directly into the gas distribution network. This is to be contrasted with CMM/AMM which normally has a higher carbon dioxide mix and as such is not suitable for direct introduction.
  • Point out main findings up front
  • CH4 transboundary
  • Figure 3.12 Modelled global changes in surface O 3 concentrations between pre-industrial times and the present day. Multimodel mean surface layer annual mean ozone (ppb), for pre-industrial (PI) times (top left) and present- day (PD) (top right). The modelled increase in O 3 (PD-PI) (lower left) and the percentage of annual mean O 3 attributable to anthropogenic sources (lower right). Source??
  • But worth it; opportunity for … Make the best of this opportunity
  • But worth it; opportunity for … Make the best of this opportunity
  • Ozone impacts health and crop yields (c.f. The impact on wheat in Pakistan – biggest pollutaqnt impacts on crop yields and ecosystem) PM is affected by BC measures – big impact on health crop yield benefits come from ozone concentration reductions
  • Multiple Benefits of SLCP Mitigation in Alpine and Polar Regions

    1. 1. Multiple Benefits of SLCPMitigation in Alpine and Polar Regions Johan C.I. KuylenstiernaDirector, Stockholm Environment Institute York Centre johan.kuylenstiernaUK@sei-international .org
    2. 2. UNEP/WMO Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone Johan Kuylenstierna, Stockholm Environment Institute, SEI, Scientific Coordinator and lead author Drew Shindell, NASA-GISS, Chair; Vice-Chairs: Frank Raes, JointResearch Centre, EC; V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Kim Oanh, AIT; Luis Cifuentes, Catholic University of Chile Coordinating lead authors: DavidStreets, Argonne National Laboratory;David Fowler, CEH; Lisa Emberson, SEI; Martin Williams, Kings College London 50 Contributors, over 100 reviewers UNEP/WMO Coordinators: VolodymyrDemkine, UNEP / Liisa Jalkanen, WMO
    3. 3. Near-term Climate and Clean Air Benefits: Actions for Controlling Short-Lived Climate ForcersLead authors: Johan Kuylenstierna (SEI); Cristina Zucca (UNEP); Marcus Amann (IIASA); Beatriz Cardenas (INE, Mexico); Bradnee Chambers (UNEP); Zbigniew Klimont (IIASA); Kevin Hicks (SEI); Richard Mills (IUAPPA); Luisa Molina(MIT); Frank Murray (Murdoch University); Pam Pearson (ICCI); Surya Sethi (UoS); Drew Shindell (NASA-GISS); Youba Sokona (ACPC); Sara Terry (US EPA); Harry Vallack (SEI); Rita van Dingenen (EU JRC); Martin Williams (Kings College); Eric Zusman (IGES)Editorial assisstance from Joseph Alcamo (UNEP) and Svante Bodin (Swedish Ministry of Environment) 49 external reviewers
    4. 4. Climate and Clean Air Coalition to reduce Short-Lived Climate PollutantsThere is a lot of scientific and political interest – Why?
    5. 5. What are short-lived climate pollutants?Short-lived climate pollutants: Cause globalwarming & relatively short-lived in theatmosphere.Black carbon, methane, tropospheric ozoneMultiple benefits of reducing short-lived climate pollutants:• Reduce air pollution - Protect health and crops• Slow down near-term global warming, reduce regional impacts of climate changeAlso some HFCs
    6. 6. Lifetimes in the atmosphere
    7. 7. Air pollution: unfinished business on the sustainable development agenda Outdoor air pollution “Some progress” : Despite some progress, outdoor air pollution continuesProgress towards global to have serious impacts on theenvironmental goals environment & human health.(UNEP GEO-5) About 1.2 (3.7?) million premature deaths each year due to outside air pollution. Indoor air pollution “little or no progress” “Indoor air pollution from particulate matter continues to have major health impacts, particularly on women and children.” • about3 billion people cook and heat using open fires and leaky stoves burning biomass and coal • Around 2 million people die each year prematurely from illness attributable to indoor air pollution Source: WHO statistics
    8. 8. Ground level ozone increasing over wide areas Due to methane and other precursorsReducing ground levelozone:• protects public health• reduces ozone damageto crops Source: UNEP GEO-5, HTAP
    9. 9. Impact of the Tropospheric Ozone on Crop yields Exposure of wheat to ozone in Pakistan Clean air Air with ambient ozone
    10. 10. A package of 16 measures can substantially reduce emissions and achieve multiple benefitsIIASA ranked mitigation measures by the net climate impact (using GWP) oftheir emission changes (considering CO, CH4, BC, OC, SO2, NOX, NMVOCs,and CO2), picked the top measures – about 90% of warming benefitBlack carbon measures• addressing emissions from incompletecombustion - BC, OC, methane, CO, NMVOCsMethane measures• reducing methane emissions No technical breakthroughs These measures already implemented in many countries Cost-effective
    11. 11. The measures aiming at reducing methane emissionsIntermittent aeration -paddy Recovery from wastewater Recovery from oil and gas Recovery from landfill Recovery from livestock manure / feed Coal mine methane capture Reducing pipeline leakage
    12. 12. The measures aiming to reduce black carbon emissions Improved biomass stoves Modern coke ovens Remove big smokers / DPF Cooking with clean fuel Improved brick kilns Pellet biomass heating stovesCoal briquettes replacing coal Reduce agricultural burning Reduce flaring
    13. 13. Effect of measures on emissions projected in 2030 relative to 2005 9 BC measures reduce ̴80% of BCReference: CH4 increases7 CH4 measures reduce ̴ 25% of CH4 (2005); or̴ 40% relative to 2030 BC measures reduce CO
    14. 14. Premature mortality avoided (1000s of deaths) 2.4 million avoided premature deaths - from outdoor PM S, W & C Asia 1.15 million deaths/yr Africa 200 thousand deaths/yr
    15. 15. Health Benefits by Country
    16. 16. About 32 (range 21-57) million tonnes yield loss avoided in 2030 reduces air pollution & saves lives
    17. 17. Crop Benefits in Different Countries
    18. 18. Temperature changes over 20th CenturySource: NASA GISS
    19. 19. Estimated historic contributions to Arctic warming from CO2 and from SLCFs. Reflective aerosols produced asubstantial cooling effect (based on data in Quinn et al., 2008).
    20. 20. Global and regional temperature changes relative to 2009 projected under the reference scenario for different global regions• Largest projected increases in Arctic
    21. 21. Result for Global Temperature Change: CO2 and SLCF measures are complementary strategiesSource: UNEP/WMO (2011). Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon andTropospheric Ozone. UNEP, Nairobi
    22. 22. The share of global temperature reduction from methane measures
    23. 23. The share of global temperature reduction from methane measures
    24. 24. Near-term framing National action against air pollution can slow down global warmingSlowing down near term global warming. How much?16 measures reduce global warming up to 2040 ≈ 0.4/0.5oC relative to baseline almost halving of temperature rise; 0.7oC reduction in Arctic Glacier lakeWhy slow down near term global warming? outburst floods• Bursting glacier lakes;• increasing heat waves• Melting arctic land ice, ice caps,  sea level riseAlso reduce regional climate change impactsGlacier melting; arctic ice melting; precipitation patternsCannot replace CO2 reductionsNeed both –1. Reducing short-lived climate forcers: slow down near-term global warming2. CO2 reductions for long term climate protection
    25. 25. Time series estimates of glacier mass balance in different regions of the world (from Kaser et al., 2006).Panel a. shows mass balance normalized to the glacierized area ineach region (specific mass balance), a measure of the relativeresponse of each region, while Panel b. shows change in total massbalance, reported in millimetres of sea-level equivalent (SLE)
    26. 26. Global and Regional Temperature Change Relative to the Reference Scenario (hybrid modelling of GISS, ECHAM informed by the literature) Methane measures: Relatively uniform benefits, low uncertainty BC measures: Larger benefits in North, greater uncertainty for temperature (large regional precipitation & glacial melting benefits) Reduced Arctic warming by 0.7oC by 2040 compared to the reference Scenario, with measures taken 2010---2030. Mitigating ~2/3 of projected 1.2oC warming
    27. 27. Global and Regional Temperature Change Relative to the Reference Scenario (modelling using of GISS)Global and regional temperature changes due to widespread use of pelletstoves and boilers in industrialized countries and coal briquettes in theresidential sector in China.
    28. 28. Annual average surface temperature change (ºC) from implementing all measures• Dark areas: where the biggest temperature benefit occurs
    29. 29. Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from implementing all measures• Dark areas: where the forcing benefit from increased albedo occurs
    30. 30. Regional Climate Changes: Preventing Disturbance of Rainfall Patterns Change in atmospheric forcing at 2030 relative to the reference case in the two models.• Dark areas: where the biggest energy change to the atmosphere occurs• This drives regional weather pattern changes
    31. 31. How much does it cost? Costs of implementing 16 measures 50% of black carbon and methane emission reductions: Low cost or no-cost  Recovery of methane, better fuel efficiency Black carbon measures • Improved stoves • Upgraded brick kilnsMethane measures• Recovery from fossil fuel production(coal mines; gas distribution)• Waste / landfill management
    32. 32. Conclusions• Addressing SLCPs is a development issue – countries reducing emissions will benefit from improved health (avoid 2.4 million deaths), crop yields (avoid > 30 million tonnes loss) etc• 16 identified measures, implemented by 2030, would reduce global warming by 0.5oC (0.2-0.7oC) in 2050 – half the warming projected by the Reference Scenario• Near-term measures would improve the chance of not exceeding 2oC target, but only if CO2 is also addressed, starting now (complementary strategies; not alternatives)• Substantial regional climate benefits: e.g. in the Arctic reduce warming by 0.7 oC (range 0.2-1.3oC by 2040), for Himalayas and South Asian monsoon• The identified measures are all currently in use in different regions around the world; much wider and more rapid implementation is required to achieve the full benefits• Many measures achieve cost savings over time.
    33. 33. ‘An Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone’http://www.unep.org/dewa/Portals/67/pdf/BlackCarbon_SDM.pdf Near-term Climate and Clean Air Benefits: Actions for Controlling Short-Lived Climate Forcers http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/SLCF/
    34. 34. Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from implementing all measures• Dark areas: where the forcing benefit from increased albedo occurs
    35. 35. How much does it cost? Costs of implementing 16 measuresGROUP 1: Cost Savings or Low Cost e.g.- Recovery and utilization of vented gas during oil production- Replacement of traditional brick kilns with more efficient kilnsGROUP 2: Moderate Cost,e.g. Coal mines: oxidation of ventilation methaneGROUP 3: High Cost,e.g. Applying Euro VI/6 standards to vehicles
    36. 36. Actions on the National, Regional and Global ScalesWhy national action?• Most health benefits close to emission sources; local sustainable development; unique mix of emission sources• Fast action on obvious emission sources, National Action PlansWhy regional action?• Reduce regional-scale pollution, e.g. black carbon transported long distances to Himalayas, Arctic• Integrate abatement of black carbon and methane into existing or new regional air pollution agreementsWhy global action?• Support and catalyze national and regional action – awareness raising, financing, technical assistance• Control international emission sources  Work within existing treaties: e.g. Reduce black carbon emissions through MARPOL?
    37. 37. Actions on the National, Regional and Global ScalesWhy national action?• Most health benefits close to emission sources; local sustainable development.• Fast action on obvious emission sources, National Action PlansWhy regional action?• Reduce regional-scale pollution, e.g. black carbon transported long distances to Himalayas, Arctic• Integrate abatement of black carbon and methane into existing or new regional air pollution agreementsWhy global action?• Control international emission sources  Work within existing treaties: e.g. Reduce black carbon emissions through MARPOL?• Support and catalyze national and regional action – awareness raising, financing, technical assistance  Climate and Clean Air Coalition
    38. 38. Political action now: the CoalitionCoalition for Climate and Clean AirFebruary, 2012: 6 countries + UNEPEnd 2012: + 10 countries + otherpartners ?Action on Reducing Short-LivedClimate Pollutants• Awareness raising• National action plans• Black carbon from vehicles, brick kilns• Methane from landfills, oil & gasproduction• HFCs from refrigeration & airconditioning
    39. 39. ConclusionsUrgent questions about SLCPs require scientists and other experts to work on two tracks:3. Quick response  Costs and benefits of emission reduction measures  science-basis for priority actions4. Focused medium-term research  Reduce uncertaintiesActing on SLCPs an important opportunityConvergence of interests, new impulse to ...Link solutions to climate change, air pollution and development1. Reduce 2nd most important greenhouse gas – methane2. Address major public health danger & important air pollutant – particulate matter – a priority for sustainable development
    40. 40. Further thoughtsCoalition needs to achieve some rapid successes –showing progress over the next yearTo encourage further participation from Asia, Africaand Latin America, highlight multiple benefits ofSLCP mitigation – allow countries to find key issuesthey want to address in the SLCP agenda.Link SLCP mitigation to on-going activities indifferent countries – e.g. national developmentplans in sectors such as waste management,energy accessNeeds to understand barriers and solutions toimplement different measures – informed by pastexperience and case studiesBetter characterised costs and wider societalbenefits of health improvement and infrastructuredevelopment need to be made accessible
    41. 41. Observed (left) and modelled (right) surface BC concentrations (ng/m3) (Koch et al., 2009a).• showing rather sparse measurements but reasonable Source: Koch et correlation between model and measurement al., 2009a
    42. 42. Black carbon and ozone concentrations (daily averages) measured from March 2006 to February 2008 at the GAW- WMO Global station "Nepal Climate Observatory - Pyramid" at 5 097 m above mean sea level near Mt. Everest550 ng m-3 showing values comparable with polluted Source: Bonasoni et al., areas during several pre-monsoon day 2010
    43. 43. Impact of the Measures on Health and Crop yields• Models give PM2.5 and ozone concentrations for health and crop yield impact assessment• Concentration-response relationships from literature used to evaluate global impacts Exposure of wheat to ozone in Pakistan Clean air Air with ambient ozone
    44. 44. Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from implementing all measures• Dark areas: where the forcing benefit from increased albedo occurs
    45. 45. Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from implementing all measures• Dark areas: where the forcing benefit from increased albedo occurs
    46. 46. Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from implementing all measures• Dark areas: where the forcing benefit from increased albedo occurs
    47. 47. Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from implementing all measures• Dark areas: where the forcing benefit from increased albedo occurs
    48. 48. Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from implementing all measures• Dark areas: where the forcing benefit from increased albedo occurs
    49. 49. Annual average albedo forcing change (W/m2) from implementing all measures• Dark areas: where the forcing benefit from increased albedo occurs
    50. 50. Warming in different latitude bands due to O3 and aerosols only following the reference scenario for emission projections from 2010 to 2030 and then assuming constant emissions at 2030 levels thereafter• Largest projected increases in Arctic
    51. 51. stratosphere Tropospheric Ozone stratospheric O3 8 – 15 km chemical production chemical destructiontroposphere CH4 CO VOCs NO O3 deposition ls bi ing m ks ss s ga ttle fo uel ue ea in il f ca of sl
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