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Western Balkans Wind Power Market Outlook 2013 - 2018

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This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the wind energy sector of Western Balkans countries for the period 2013 ÷ 2018. Newly installed wind capacity in this region will exceed …

This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the wind energy sector of Western Balkans countries for the period 2013 ÷ 2018. Newly installed wind capacity in this region will exceed 4 GW in the next 2 years. The number of fully permitted and ready to build projects is promptly increasing. Small wind market segment for turbines below 500 KW in many countries is not developed and forecasted to score significant growth in the near future. The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, risks, current issues and future prospects. You will find 200 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Western Balkans countries wind market. With comprehensive market data this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors, manufacturers and service providers in their decision making process. As 2012 and 2013 were challenging years for wind industry, the time for taking right decisions during 2014 and the next few years is limited. Fast changing market environment, requires relevant and accurate information.

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  • 1. AKT M RE D N WN AS I R BL EN AK ET WS a oi dn , a ee e iG e , a t,r c M c ,o aa r g iC a a on z i l r ,e i T k ,lei eeon,u HrgvaB b , r yS v n Bsa n ,o iad aSra u e n b a ln A ai e o ai ot er Rm M n ng ,o 08 ÷21 o 21 ok 03 l u Ot
  • 2. Inea Consulting is a well established renewable energy advisory firm focused to emerging markets of Eastern Europe, CIS countries and MENA countries. Through its service Renewable Market WatchTM, the company provides independent renewable sectors overview, customized analysis, market outlooks and sector studies. What makes us different is the quality and accuracy of information, which is interpreted in the best way to take your investment decisions. www.ineaconsulting.eu
  • 3. WESTERN BALKANS WIND MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 ÷ 2018 This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the wind energy sector of Western Balkans countries for the period 2013 ÷ 2018. Newly installed wind capacity in this region will exceed 4 GW in the next 2 years. The number of fully permitted and ready to build projects is promptly increasing. Small wind market segment for turbines below 500 KW in many countries is not developed and forecasted to score significant growth in the near future. The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, risks, current issues and future prospects. You will find 300 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Western Balkans countries wind market. With comprehensive market data this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors, manufacturers and service providers in their decision making process. As 2011 and 2012 were challenging years for wind industry, the time for taking right decisions during 2013 and the next few years is limited. Fast changing market environment, requires relevant and accurate information. For your convenience we offer opportunity for orders with customized book content. Reasons to buy this report include:  Wind resource potential in Western Balkans countries  Historical market data provided from 2000 to 2013 and forecasts until 2018  Overview of Western Balkans wind energy market development 2000 ÷ 2018 by countries  Development scenario of Western Balkans countries wind power sector until 2018  Major active and upcoming wind power plants in Western Balkans countries  Attractiveness indices for wind energy investments in Western Balkans countries  SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)  Major deals and M&A activity in Western Balkans countries  Overview of Western Balkans legal and regulatory framework for RES generation by countries  Competitive Landscape. Project developers and Investors in Western Balkans countries  EPC & O&M providers, Equipment manufacturers & Consultants in Western Balkans countries  Key organizations and stakeholders affecting development of the wind energy sector by countries  Comprehensive review of smart grid development in Western Balkans countries  Investment trends, potential and opportunities At next pages you will see the full table of content of this Outlook. For sample report pages request, please do not hesitate to contact us. To order this report just fill in and send us the enclosed at the last page order form. Table of contents is referential and may vary for different countries. If you have any other questions please do not hesitate to call us on ++359 887 342 475 or write an e-mail to orders@ineaconsulting.eu 3
  • 4. WESTERN BALKANS WIND MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 ÷ 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD ................................................................................................................... 10 1. METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................... 12 1.1. 1.2. Methodology ............................................................................................................ 12 Limitations ................................................................................................................ 15 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................... 16 3. WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE ............ 19 3.1. RES Regulations and Directives of European Union (EU) affecting Western Balkan countries .............................................................................................................................. 19 3.1.1. Precedent regulations ....................................................................................... 19 3.1.2. EU 2030 Framework for climate and energy policies ....................................... 20 3.1.3. EU Energy Roadmap 2050................................................................................. 23 3.1.4. TWENTIES Project ............................................................................................. 26 3.1.5. European Technology Platform for Wind Energy (TPWind) ............................. 27 3.1.6. SET Plan ............................................................................................................. 28 3.2. NATURA 2000 Network ............................................................................................ 32 3.3. Energy Community (EC) Treaty ................................................................................ 33 3.4. Renewable energy mandatory targets for EU member states from Western Balkans countries .............................................................................................................................. 34 4. WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES ENERGY MARKET ................................................. 36 4.1. General electricity market information ................................................................... 36 5. WORLD WIND ENERGY MARKET .......................................................................... 41 6. EUROPEAN WIND ENERGY MARKET ..................................................................... 48 7. WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES WIND RESOURCE POTENTIAL AND MAPPING ....... 56 8. WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES WIND ENERGY MARKET ....................................... 58 8.1. 8.2. 9. Market overview ...................................................................................................... 58 Country attractiveness index for wind energy investments .................................... 60 COUNTRY PROFILES ............................................................................................. 61 9.1. ALBANIA ................................................................................................................... 61 9.1.1. Albania Wind Energy Market Overview ............................................................ 61 9.1.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .... 62 9.1.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects 65 9.1.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework .............................................................. 67 9.1.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions ............................................ 73 9.2. BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA .................................................................................... 76 9.2.1. Bosnia and Herzegovina Wind Energy Market Overview ................................. 76 9.2.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .... 78 4
  • 5. WESTERN BALKANS WIND MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 ÷ 2018 9.2.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects 81 9.2.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework .............................................................. 82 9.2.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions ............................................ 86 9.3. BULGARIA ................................................................................................................. 91 9.3.1. Bulgaria Wind Energy Market Overview........................................................... 91 9.3.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .... 92 9.3.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects 94 9.3.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework .............................................................. 95 9.3.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions ............................................ 97 9.4. CROATIA ................................................................................................................. 102 9.4.1. Croatia Wind Energy Market Overview .......................................................... 102 9.4.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 104 9.4.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects 109 9.4.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 111 9.4.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 115 9.5. GREECE ................................................................................................................... 118 9.5.1. Greece Wind Energy Market Overview .......................................................... 118 9.5.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 121 9.5.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects 122 9.5.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 124 9.5.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 127 9.6. KOSOVO .................................................................................................................. 132 9.6.1. Kosovo Wind Energy Market Overview .......................................................... 132 9.6.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 132 9.6.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects 135 9.6.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 136 9.6.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 139 9.7. MACEDONIA ........................................................................................................... 142 9.7.1. Macedonia Wind Energy Market Overview .................................................... 142 9.7.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 143 9.7.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects 146 9.7.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 148 9.7.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 154 9.11. MONTENEGRO ....................................................................................................... 156 9.11.1. Montenegro Wind Energy Market Overview ................................................. 156 9.11.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 156 9.11.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects 157 9.11.5. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 158 9.11.6. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 159 9.12. ROMANIA ............................................................................................................... 162 9.12.1. Romania Wind Energy Market Overview........................................................ 162 5
  • 6. WESTERN BALKANS WIND MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 ÷ 2018 9.12.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 164 9.12.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects 165 9.12.5. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 167 9.12.6. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 185 9.13. SERBIA .................................................................................................................... 190 9.13.1. Serbia Wind Energy Market Overview ............................................................ 190 9.13.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 192 9.13.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects 197 9.13.5. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 199 9.13.6. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 204 9.15. SLOVENIA................................................................................................................ 208 9.15.1. Slovenia Wind Energy Market Overview ........................................................ 208 9.15.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 209 9.15.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects 212 9.15.5. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 213 9.15.6. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 218 9.16. TURKEY...................................................................................................................... 224 9.16.1. Turkey Wind Energy Market Overview ........................................................... 224 9.16.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 225 9.16.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects 227 9.16.5. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 228 9.16.6. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 244 10. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SUPPORT SCHEMES IN WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES. FEED-IN TARIFFS AND GREEN CERTIFICATES ................................................................. 248 11. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MANDATORY CAPACITY GENERATION TARGETS IN WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES ..................................................................................... 249 12. ELECTRICITY GRID NETWORK IN WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES ......................... 251 12.1. Transmission System Operators (TSO’s) ................................................................ 252 12.2. Distribution System Operators (DSO’s) .................................................................. 257 12.3. Grid connection constraints ................................................................................... 261 13. SMART GRID DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES ......................... 264 13.1. Smart Grid and Super Smart Grid Concept ............................................................ 264 13.2. Smart grids development in the Western Balkan countries .................................. 266 14. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE. PROJECT DEVELOPERS AND INVESTORS IN WESTERN BALKANS WIND ENERGY MARKET ................................................................................ 270 15. EPC AND O&M PROVIDERS, EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS AND CONSULTANTS IN WESTERN BALKANS WIND ENERGY MARKET ................................................................ 274 16. 17. 6 SWOT ANALYSIS OF WESTERN BALKANS WIND ENERGY MARKET ....................... 281 RISKS ABOUT WIND INVESTMENTS IN WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES ................ 285
  • 7. WESTERN BALKANS WIND MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 ÷ 2018 17.1. Risks Associated with the Wind Energy Industry in Western Balkan countries .... 285 17.1.1. Regulatory Risk................................................................................................ 285 17.1.2. Competition within the Wind Energy Industry ............................................... 285 17.1.3. Public Attitudes towards Wind Energy Projects ............................................. 286 17.1.4. Emerging Market Risk ..................................................................................... 287 17.1.5. Insurance Risk ................................................................................................. 287 17.1.6. Force Majeure Risk ......................................................................................... 287 17.2. Risks Associated with the Investor’s Finance Arrangements ................................. 287 17.2.1. Asset Sale Risk ................................................................................................. 287 17.2.2. Borrowing Risk ................................................................................................ 288 17.2.3. Foreign Exchange Risk ..................................................................................... 288 17.3. Risks Associated with the Development of Wind Energy Plants ........................... 289 17.3.1. Variability in the Source of Wind Energy ........................................................ 289 17.3.2. Development of the Project and Construction Risk ....................................... 289 17.3.3. Capital Cost Risk .............................................................................................. 289 17.3.4. Permits ............................................................................................................ 290 17.3.5. Land Options ................................................................................................... 290 17.3.6. Construction .................................................................................................... 291 17.3.7. Dependency on Suppliers ............................................................................... 291 17.3.8. Technology Risk............................................................................................... 291 17.3.9. Operation and Maintenance Risk ................................................................... 292 17.3.10. Market Price of Electricity ........................................................................... 292 18. INVESTMENT TRENDS, POTENTIAL AND OPPORTUNITIES IN WESTERN BALKAN WIND ENERGY MARKET ............................................................................................... 293 19. CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................... 295 20. LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................... 297 21. REFERENCES ...................................................................................................... 299 22. DISCLAIMER ....................................................................................................... 302 23. APPENDIX I. WIND MAPS OF EUROPE AND WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES ......... 303 LIST OF MAPS, CHARTS AND TABLES MAP 1: The synchronous grids of Europe (IPS/UPS is shown in orange, UCTE is equal to ENTSO-E) ................................................................................................................................. 37 MAP 2: Interconnection Grid Map of Western Balkan countries, ENTSO-E, 2012................. 39 MAP 3: Wind resource potential of Western Balkan countries. Mean wind speed at 80 m., 2011 ........................................................................................................................................ 57 MAP 4: Wind Resource Map of Albania.................................................................................. 62 MAP 5: Wind Resource Map of Bosnia and Herzegovina ....................................................... 77 MAP 6: Wind Resource Map of Bulgaria................................................................................. 91 MAP 7: Wind Resource Map of Croatia ................................................................................ 103 MAP 8: Wind Resource Map of Greece ................................................................................ 119 MAP 9: Wind Resource Map of Macedonia, 3TIER 2009...................................................... 143 7
  • 8. WESTERN BALKANS WIND MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 ÷ 2018 MAP 10: Wind Resource Map of Romania ........................................................................... 162 MAP 11: Wind Resource Map of Serbia................................................................................ 190 MAP 12: Slovenia Wind Resource Map ................................................................................ 208 MAP 13: Turkey Wind Speed and Power Density Map ........................................................ 224 MAP 14: Smart Grid Projects Map in Europe 2013, JRC ....................................................... 269 Map 15: Mean 80-m wind speeds in Europe and Western Balkan countries from Stanford University .............................................................................................................................. 303 Map 16: Global Mean Wind Speed at 80 m, 3TIER Inc. ........................................................ 304 Map 17: European Wind Atlas, Risø DTU National Laboratory, Denmark ........................... 305 Chart 1: Technology Road Map for Wind Energy Development, SET Plan ............................. 29 Chart 2: World Total Installed Cumulative Wind Capacity 1997 - 2012 ................................. 41 Chart 3: World New Installed Wind Capacity 1998 - 2012 ..................................................... 43 Chart 4: Top 10 Countries by Growth Rate (in %). Markets bigger than 200 MW, 2012 ....... 44 Chart 5: Shares in New Installed Wind Capacity by Continents (in %), 2012 ......................... 45 Chart 6: World Cumulative Wind Power Installations in GW for 1997 - 2020 ....................... 46 Chart 7: EU Member States Shares for New Installed Wind Capacity in 2012. Total 11,566 MW.......................................................................................................................................... 48 Chart 8: Share of New Power Capacity Installations in EU. Total 44,601 MW. 2012 ............. 50 Chart 9: Share of New Renewable Power Capacity Installations in the EU in MW. Total 30,968, 2012 ........................................................................................................................... 51 Chart 10: Installed Power Generating Capacity in MW and RES share in the EU for 2000 2012 ........................................................................................................................................ 52 Chart 11: Net Electricity Generating Installations in the EU for 2000 - 2012 in GW .............. 53 Chart 12: Annual Wind Power Installations in the EU in GW for 2000 - 2012 ....................... 53 Chart 13: Cumulative Wind Power Installations in the EU in GW for 2000 - 2012 ................ 54 Chart 14: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Western Balkan countries in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ......................................................................... 59 Chart 15: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Albania in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ....................................................................................................... 66 Chart 16: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Bosnia and Herzegovina in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ................................................................................. 82 Chart 17: Bulgarian RES targets in % set by the EU ................................................................ 93 Chart 18: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Bulgaria in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ....................................................................................................... 95 Chart 19: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Croatia in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ..................................................................................................... 111 Chart 20: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Greece in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ..................................................................................................... 124 Chart 21: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Kosovo in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ..................................................................................................... 135 Chart 22: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Macedonia in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ................................................................................................. 147 Chart 23: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Montenegro in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ................................................................................................. 158 Chart 24: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Romania in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ..................................................................................................... 167 8
  • 9. WESTERN BALKANS WIND MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 ÷ 2018 Chart 25: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Serbia in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ..................................................................................................... 199 Chart 26: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Slovenia in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ..................................................................................................... 212 Chart 27: Turkish RES targets for 2023 in % set by the State Planning Organization .......... 226 Chart 28: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Turkey in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ..................................................................................................... 228 Chart 29: Mandatory capacity generation targets for share of renewable energies in Western Balkan countries from 2005 to 2020...................................................................... 249 Chart 30: Forecast for total Net Generation Capacity in the EU by source type 2013 - 2030 ............................................................................................................................................... 257 Chart 31: RWE Group position on individual markets (by sales) in 2012 ............................. 258 Chart 32: Map of RWE Group Operations in Western Balkan countries .............................. 259 Chart 33: Map of CEZ Group Operations in Western Balkan countries ............................... 260 Chart 34: Smart Grid Model Concept ................................................................................... 264 Chart 35: The SuperSmart Grid Diagram .............................................................................. 266 Chart 36: Cumulative number of smart grid projects in selected Western Balkan countries compared to average EU number, 2000 ÷ 2012 ................................................................... 267 Chart 37: Cumulative budget of smart grid projects in selected Western Balkan countries compared to average EU numbers, 2000 ÷ 2012 ................................................................. 268 Table 1: Support schemes for RES generation in the EU countries ........................................ 49 Table 2: Attractiveness index for wind energy investments in Western Balkan countries in 2013 ........................................................................................................................................ 60 Table 3: Feed-in tariff for wind energy in Bosnia and Herzegovina ....................................... 86 Table 4: Feed-in tariff for wind energy in Bulgaria ................................................................. 97 Table 5: Feed-in tariff for wind energy in Croatia................................................................. 115 Table 6: Feed-in tariff for wind energy in Greece ................................................................. 127 Table 7: Feed-in tariff for wind energy in Macedonia .......................................................... 154 Table 8: Feed-in tariffs for wind energy in Montenegro ...................................................... 159 Table 9: Green certificates for wind energy in Romania ...................................................... 184 Table 10: Feed-in tariff for wind energy in Serbia ................................................................ 203 Table 11: Feed-in-tariffs for electricity from rooftop photovoltaic energy in Slovenia ....... 211 Table 12: Feed-in tariff for wind energy in Slovenia ............................................................. 217 Table 13: Feed-in tariff for wind energy in Turkey ............................................................... 242 Table 14: Additional incentives to Feed-in-tariffs for electricity from wind sources in Turkey for domestic procurement .................................................................................................... 244 Table 15: Support schemes in Western Balkan countries. Comparative analysis 2013 ....... 248 Table 16: List of TSO's in Western Balkan countries 2013 .................................................... 257 © 2013, Inea Consulting Ltd., Manufactured in Bulgaria; All rights reserved. Last updated on 29.11.2013 9