Socio-economic foundation to asset preservation and maintenance<br />Nigel Rockliffe<br />ArifWismadi<br />
Objective <br />A demonstration project ‘to develop... [PPB] procedures and tools... and to provide and coordinate support...
Part 1 <br />Roads in service <br />
Roads in service <br />The Goldilocks principle <br />
Hailan Haiwe, PNG <br />0 – Minimum<br />1 – High repairs<br />2 – Scheduled seal + high<br />3 – KRGMP pre-emptive <br />...
Treatment options <br />1 Minimum repairs <br />2 Intermediate repairs <br />3 High repairs <br />4 Pre-emptive repairs <b...
Comparing treatment options <br />•	Undertaking major works saves money in the long run. <br />•	Optimal option is ‘Full-p...
Two kinds of efficiency <br />Cost<br /><ul><li>Maximise technical efficiency.
Maximise allocative efficiency by...
trading  off RUCs and RACs to minimise total transport cost.
This is the optimal level of service. </li></ul>Where we are now<br />Technical efficiency<br />TTC<br />RAC<br />Allocati...
Roads in service <br />A stitch in time saves nine<br />
It pays to be on time <br /><ul><li>Conducting repairs promptly is often win-win.
Even when it’s win-lose, it’s beneficial overall. So road users can pay for it and still be ahead.
It reduces costs for road users and the road agency alike. </li></li></ul><li>How routine maintenance affects defects <br ...
Good routine maintenance can delay their onset. </li></ul>Age of pavement<br />
How routine maintenance affects roughness<br />Roughness<br />Poor maintenance<br />Good maintenance<br /><ul><li>As defec...
vehicle operating cost
travel time
discomfort.
Good routine maintenance keeps pavements smoother longer. </li></ul>Age of pavement<br />
All maintenance must be timely <br />Life-cycle cost<br />RoutinePeriodic<br />Routine 	<br />Periodic 	<br />Policy s...
If either is late, RUC and RAC are higher than they need be.
Prompt routine maintenance extends road life and requires less frequent periodic maintenance . </li></ul>Routine Periodic...
Roads in service <br />Take-home messages<br />Goldilocks shows us that undertaking major works saves money in the long ru...
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Rockliffe 11

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Rockliffe 11

  1. 1. Socio-economic foundation to asset preservation and maintenance<br />Nigel Rockliffe<br />ArifWismadi<br />
  2. 2. Objective <br />A demonstration project ‘to develop... [PPB] procedures and tools... and to provide and coordinate support in training and disseminating all activities.’ <br />A ‘socialisation’ strategy to promote cultural attitudes and norms concerning the importance of maintaining roads. <br />In support of national and regional development objectives. <br />
  3. 3. Part 1 <br />Roads in service <br />
  4. 4. Roads in service <br />The Goldilocks principle <br />
  5. 5. Hailan Haiwe, PNG <br />0 – Minimum<br />1 – High repairs<br />2 – Scheduled seal + high<br />3 – KRGMP pre-emptive <br />4 – KRGMP pre-emptive + shape<br />5 – Min + structural overlay<br />
  6. 6. Treatment options <br />1 Minimum repairs <br />2 Intermediate repairs <br />3 High repairs <br />4 Pre-emptive repairs <br />5 Pre-emptive and periodic <br />6 Pre-emptive and full menu <br />7 Business as usual (national) <br />8 Business as usual (provincial) <br />9 Pre-emptive and modified full menu <br />
  7. 7. Comparing treatment options <br />• Undertaking major works saves money in the long run. <br />• Optimal option is ‘Full-pre-emptive’. <br />
  8. 8. Two kinds of efficiency <br />Cost<br /><ul><li>Maximise technical efficiency.
  9. 9. Maximise allocative efficiency by...
  10. 10. trading off RUCs and RACs to minimise total transport cost.
  11. 11. This is the optimal level of service. </li></ul>Where we are now<br />Technical efficiency<br />TTC<br />RAC<br />Allocative efficiency<br />Where we want to be<br />RUC<br />Level of service<br />Better ride quality<br />
  12. 12. Roads in service <br />A stitch in time saves nine<br />
  13. 13. It pays to be on time <br /><ul><li>Conducting repairs promptly is often win-win.
  14. 14. Even when it’s win-lose, it’s beneficial overall. So road users can pay for it and still be ahead.
  15. 15. It reduces costs for road users and the road agency alike. </li></li></ul><li>How routine maintenance affects defects <br />Area affected by defects (%)<br />Poor maintenance<br />Good maintenance<br /><ul><li>Once they start, defects grow explosively.
  16. 16. Good routine maintenance can delay their onset. </li></ul>Age of pavement<br />
  17. 17. How routine maintenance affects roughness<br />Roughness<br />Poor maintenance<br />Good maintenance<br /><ul><li>As defects grow, roughness rises, which increases
  18. 18. vehicle operating cost
  19. 19. travel time
  20. 20. discomfort.
  21. 21. Good routine maintenance keeps pavements smoother longer. </li></ul>Age of pavement<br />
  22. 22. All maintenance must be timely <br />Life-cycle cost<br />RoutinePeriodic<br />Routine <br />Periodic <br />Policy space<br /><ul><li>Both routine and periodic maintenance must be on time.
  23. 23. If either is late, RUC and RAC are higher than they need be.
  24. 24. Prompt routine maintenance extends road life and requires less frequent periodic maintenance . </li></ul>Routine Periodic <br />Routine <br />Periodic <br />Age of pavement<br />
  25. 25. Roads in service <br />Take-home messages<br />Goldilocks shows us that undertaking major works saves money in the long run. <br />Prompt maintenance is win-win: it reduces costs for road users and the road agency alike. <br />
  26. 26. Part 2<br />Roads in crisis <br />
  27. 27. Roads in crisis <br />A little goes a long way <br />
  28. 28. The demand for trips<br />• Demand for Puskesmas trips is relatively inelastic (–0.5), typical of a ‘necessary’ good like healthcare. <br />• ‘Discretionary’ trips, such as VFR, are expected to be far more price-elastic. <br />• Demand is relatively inelastic (– 0.46), typical of a ‘necessary’ good like healthcare. <br />• ‘Discretionary’ trips, such as VFR, are expected to be far more price-elastic. <br />↙ Distance is a proxy for price. <br />↙ Distance is a proxy for price. <br />Exponent is ‘price elasticity of demand’ and measures responsiveness of travel to changes in price. ↓<br />Exponent is ‘price elasticity of demand’ and measures responsiveness of travel to changes in price. ↓<br />Source: Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS)<br />
  29. 29. Benefit<br />Outcomes<br />Income <br />• Poverty rate<br />• Surat k. miskin<br />Health<br />• Morbidity<br />• Mortality<br />• Life expectancy<br />Social benefit<br />Education<br />• Attendance<br />• Attainment<br />Other <br />Inputs, outputs, outcomes and benefit <br />Outputs<br />Inputs<br />Road condition<br />Demand curve<br />‘Consumption’ of trips<br />‘Price’ of trip<br />Distance to destination<br />
  30. 30. The social benefit of trips<br />Price<br />No motorable access<br />Partial access<br />Full access<br />Trips per person <br />
  31. 31. A little maintenance goes a long way<br />Total benefit<br />Benefit<br />Partial access (99% of time)<br />Partial access (95% of time)<br />Full access<br />No motorable access<br />Marginal benefit<br />Cost<br />
  32. 32. Roads in crisis <br />Roads are good for people<br />
  33. 33. Poor roads are linked to poverty... <br />Sealed roads are associated with <br />← fewer households in poverty... <br />↓ and fewer surat keterangan miskin. <br />But... <br /><ul><li>Poverty is not all attributable to road condition; other facilities must change too.
  34. 34. Causality is not one-way: the poor may lack good roads for other reasons. </li></ul>Source: Potensi Desa (Podes)<br />
  35. 35. ... and to poor health <br />← Sealed roads are associated with greatly reduced mortality. <br />But is this because they are nearer to medical facilities (Puskesmas)?-><br />Source: Potensi Desa (Podes)<br />
  36. 36. Roads in crisis <br />Take-home messages<br />A little maintenance goes a long way. Better to go from ‘no motorable access’ to ‘partial’, than from ‘partial’ to ‘full’. <br />It is important to derive the demand for trips. Social benefit can be calculated, which permits the optimal allocation of resources. <br />There is a link between road condition and wellbeing. The better the road, the better off the community. <br />
  37. 37. Thank you<br />
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