Ind rockliffe 11

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Ind rockliffe 11

  1. 1. Aspek Sosial Ekonomi pada preservasi dan pemeliharaan aset<br />Nigel Rockliffe<br />ArifWismadi<br />
  2. 2. Tujuan<br />Suatu proyek percontohan untuk ‘pengembangan dan pemeliharaan suatu kebijakan uji coba yang komprehensif dan [PPB] prosedur dan perangkat ... dan untuk menyediakan dan mengkoordinasikan dukungan dalam pelatihan dan penyebarluasan semua kegiatan. "<br />Suatu strategi 'sosialisasi' untuk mempromosikan penerapan sikap budaya dan norma mengenai pentingnya pemeliharaan jalan.<br />Mendukung sosialisasi manfaat pemeliharaan dan preservasi jalan, berdasarkan implikasi biaya siklus umur rencana jalan ... .. untuk mendukung tujuan pembangunan nasional dan regional<br />
  3. 3. Part 1 <br />Roads in service <br />
  4. 4. Roads in service <br />The Goldilocks principle <br />
  5. 5. Hailan Haiwe, PNG <br />0 – Minimum<br />1 – High repairs<br />2 – Scheduled seal + high<br />3 – KRGMP pre-emptive <br />4 – KRGMP pre-emptive + shape<br />5 – Min + structural overlay<br />
  6. 6. Treatment options <br />1 Minimum repairs <br />2 Intermediate repairs <br />3 High repairs <br />4 Pre-emptive repairs <br />5 Pre-emptive and periodic <br />6 Pre-emptive and full menu <br />7 Business as usual (national) <br />8 Business as usual (provincial) <br />9 Pre-emptive and modified full menu <br />
  7. 7. Comparing treatment options <br />• Undertaking major works saves money in the long run. <br />• Optimal option is ‘Full-pre-emptive’. <br />
  8. 8. Two kinds of efficiency <br />Cost<br /><ul><li>Maximise technical efficiency.
  9. 9. Maximise allocative efficiency by...
  10. 10. trading off RUCs and RACs to minimise total transport cost.
  11. 11. This is the optimal level of service. </li></ul>Where we are now<br />Technical efficiency<br />TTC<br />RAC<br />Allocative efficiency<br />Where we want to be<br />RUC<br />Level of service<br />Better ride quality<br />
  12. 12. Roads in service <br />A stitch in time saves nine<br />
  13. 13. It pays to be on time <br /><ul><li>Conducting repairs promptly is often win-win.
  14. 14. Even when it’s win-lose, it’s beneficial overall. So road users can pay for it and still be ahead.
  15. 15. It reduces costs for road users and the road agency alike. </li></li></ul><li>How routine maintenance affects defects <br />Area affected by defects (%)<br />Poor maintenance<br />Good maintenance<br /><ul><li>Once they start, defects grow explosively.
  16. 16. Good routine maintenance can delay their onset. </li></ul>Age of pavement<br />
  17. 17. How routine maintenance affects roughness<br />Roughness<br />Poor maintenance<br />Good maintenance<br /><ul><li>As defects grow, roughness rises, which increases
  18. 18. vehicle operating cost
  19. 19. travel time
  20. 20. discomfort.
  21. 21. Good routine maintenance keeps pavements smoother longer. </li></ul>Age of pavement<br />
  22. 22. All maintenance must be timely <br />Life-cycle cost<br />RoutinePeriodic<br />Routine <br />Periodic <br />Policy space<br /><ul><li>Both routine and periodic maintenance must be on time.
  23. 23. If either is late, RUC and RAC are higher than they need be.
  24. 24. Prompt routine maintenance extends road life and requires less frequent periodic maintenance . </li></ul>Routine Periodic <br />Routine <br />Periodic <br />Age of pavement<br />
  25. 25. Jalan dalam pelayanan<br />Ambillah Pesan<br />Goldilocks menunjukkan bahwa melaksanakan ‘major works’ akan menyelamatkan uang dalam jangka lama ke depan. <br />Pemeliharaan yang tepat dancepat adalah ‘win-win’ : tindakan ini dapat mengurangi biaya pengguna jalan maupun yang harus dipikul oleh pemerintah.<br />
  26. 26. Part 2<br />Roads in crisis <br />
  27. 27. Roads in crisis <br />A little goes a long way <br />
  28. 28. The demand for trips<br />• Demand for Puskesmas trips is relatively inelastic (–0.5), typical of a ‘necessary’ good like healthcare. <br />• ‘Discretionary’ trips, such as VFR, are expected to be far more price-elastic. <br />• Demand is relatively inelastic (– 0.46), typical of a ‘necessary’ good like healthcare. <br />• ‘Discretionary’ trips, such as VFR, are expected to be far more price-elastic. <br />↙ Distance is a proxy for price. <br />↙ Distance is a proxy for price. <br />Exponent is ‘price elasticity of demand’ and measures responsiveness of travel to changes in price. ↓<br />Exponent is ‘price elasticity of demand’ and measures responsiveness of travel to changes in price. ↓<br />Source: Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS)<br />
  29. 29. Benefit<br />Outcomes<br />Income <br />• Poverty rate<br />• Surat k. miskin<br />Health<br />• Morbidity<br />• Mortality<br />• Life expectancy<br />Social benefit<br />Education<br />• Attendance<br />• Attainment<br />Other <br />Inputs, outputs, outcomes and benefit <br />Outputs<br />Inputs<br />Road condition<br />Demand curve<br />‘Consumption’ of trips<br />‘Price’ of trip<br />Distance to destination<br />
  30. 30. The social benefit of trips<br />Price<br />No motorable access<br />Partial access<br />Full access<br />Trips per person <br />
  31. 31. A little maintenance goes a long way<br />Total benefit<br />Benefit<br />Partial access (99% of time)<br />Partial access (95% of time)<br />Full access<br />No motorable access<br />Marginal benefit<br />Cost<br />
  32. 32. Roads in crisis <br />Roads are good for people<br />
  33. 33. Poor roads are linked to poverty... <br />Sealed roads are associated with <br />← fewer households in poverty... <br />↓ and fewer surat keterangan miskin. <br />But... <br /><ul><li>Poverty is not all attributable to road condition; other facilities must change too.
  34. 34. Causality is not one-way: the poor may lack good roads for other reasons. </li></ul>Source: Potensi Desa (Podes)<br />
  35. 35. ... and to poor health <br />← Sealed roads are associated with greatly reduced mortality. <br />But is this because they are nearer to medical facilities (Puskesmas)?-><br />Source: Potensi Desa (Podes)<br />
  36. 36. Jalan dalam krisis<br />PESAN UNTUK DIBAWAH PULANG<br />Suatu pemeliharaan jalan lebih ilaksanakan secara menyeluruh dan terpadu dari pada dilaksanakan secara sepotong-sepotong.<br />Penetapan kebutuhan perjalanan adalah hal yang penting yang dapat mempermudah perhitungan manfaat sosial, yang akan mengarah pada perhitungan kebutuhan sumber daya. <br />Ada hubungan antara kondisi jalan dengan kesejahteraan masyarakat<br />
  37. 37. Thank you<br />

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