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Gdmp model workshop 4 - structure of dass

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  • 1. Gas Development Master Plan Structure of the Demand and Supply Scenarios (DASS) Component Capacity Building Workshop Bali, 1-2 July 2013
  • 2. 2 Presentation Outline • Outline of the Demand and Supply Scenario (DASS) • Descriptions of each part of DASS: – Input sheets – Control panel – Calculations sheets – Outputs and results
  • 3. 3 Outline of DASS INPUT DATA Supply input sheet Demand input sheet Global parameter sheet CALCULATION CONTROL PANEL Demand calculation sheet Supply calculation sheet OUTPUTS Demand by region and by sector Annual production by region TIM Supply-demand graph (initial) SCENARIOS Input from TIM Adjustments sheet Revenue calculation sheet Supply-demand graph (adjusted) Government revenue Price input sheet Price calculation sheet Export input sheet
  • 4. 4 Input Sheets in DASS – Overview INPUT DATA Supply input sheet Demand input sheet Global parameter sheet Price input sheet Export input sheet Key issues: selecting data to be used as parameters in the model, and processing the raw data to match inputs required in the model Hard coded data sheets, some allows for different scenarios, for example: – Industrial demand has base case, low and high cases based on MIGAS estimates of contracted, committed and potential demand figures – Base case, low and high cases for production profiles for each region – Different price scenarios based on IEA crude oil or based on natural gas imports – Different estimates for GDP growths and elasticity
  • 5. 5 Input Sheets in DASS – Demand assumptions INPUT DATA Supply input sheet Demand input sheet Global parameter sheet Price input sheet Export input sheet Power sector: – Used PLN RUPTL gas demand estimates up to 2020 – Projected to 2070 using income elasticities Other demand sectors: – Used MIGAS gas balance for demand estimates up to 2025 – Projected to 2070 using income and price elasticites and domestic gas price growth
  • 6. 6 Input Sheets in DASS – Export assumptions INPUT DATA Supply input sheet Demand input sheet Global parameter sheet Price input sheet Export input sheet • Use MIGAS gas balance data on “contracted” export volumes for each regions for up to 2025 • Projected to 2070 using assumed export growth rates, differentiated between pipeline export and LNG • These figures will be adjusted based on unmet demand and excess supply from TIM
  • 7. 7 Input Sheets in DASS – Supply assumptions INPUT DATA Supply input sheet Demand input sheet Global parameter sheet Price input sheet Export input sheet • Using estimated production figures for each region for: – Existing gas productions – Gas production in development – Potential gas development • Estimates of low and high cases using assumed percentages to reduce (for low case) or increase (for high case) production
  • 8. 8 Input Sheets in DASS – Price assumptions INPUT DATA Supply input sheet Demand input sheet Global parameter sheet Price input sheet Export input sheet • Using data from: – IEA world energy outlook as base data to calculate growth rate – Use current domestic wholesale gas price – Different growth rates scenarios can be chosen
  • 9. 9 Input Sheets in DASS – Global parameters INPUT DATA Supply input sheet Demand input sheet Global parameter sheet Price input sheet Export input sheet Hard coded inputs for parameters such as: – Income elasticities – GDP growth rates – Price elasticities Provides for three levels of scenarios: base case, low case and high case
  • 10. 10 Control Panel – Scenario Selection CONTROL PANEL SCENARIOS A separate sheet where users can select demand, production, price and policy scenarios Dropdown menu to select production scenarios: base/low/high Dropdown menu to select demand scenarios: base/low/high Individual demand scenarios for different demand sectors Dropdown menu to select price scenarios Dropdown menu to select policy scenario, domestic or export priority
  • 11. 11 Calculations Sheets in DASS – Overview CALCULATION Demand calculation sheet Supply calculation sheet Adjustments sheet Revenue calculation sheet Price calculation sheet Key issues: some calculations need to be done in several steps to avoid long complicated formulas Different calculations sheets to calculate: – Demand projection – Export projection – Production/supply projection – Government revenues Results are recorded in a separate sheet for either: – Transfer to TIM, or – Graphs representations
  • 12. 12 Calculations Sheets in DASS CALCULATION Demand calculation sheet Supply calculation sheet Adjustments sheet Revenue calculation sheet Price calculation sheet Demand: • Demand growth = income elasticity x GDP growth + price elasticity x domestic price growth Supply: • Takes into account production and remaining reserves in each regions Government revenue = Government revenue from exports – Cost of unmet domestic demand + Economic value of gas consumed
  • 13. 13 Outputs of DASS – Initial Demand and Supply OUTPUTS Demand by region and by sector Annual production by region Supply- demand graph (initial) Supply- demand graph (adjusted) Government revenue
  • 14. 14 Outputs of DASS – Gas Balance before and after OUTPUTS Demand by region and by sector Annual production by region Supply- demand graph (initial) Supply- demand graph (adjusted) Government revenue Grey area shows excess supply from this region After running TIM, excess supply is now transferred (purple bars) to other region(s) TIM only runs to 2040 If transfers exceed production, could mean that this region imports gas and then transfer to other region(s) Example from Central and South Sumatera
  • 15. 15 Outputs of DASS – Government Revenues OUTPUTS Demand by region and by sector Annual production by region Supply- demand graph (initial) Supply- demand graph (adjusted) Government revenue Discounted costs, to 2050 Undiscounted costs, to 2070 – very large unmet demand (depends on scenario)

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