Creating Dramatic Change while Supporting Local Jobs/Economies and America’s Dominance in Solar Energy Jigar Shah Presiden...
<ul><li>Attacking Conventional Wisdom </li></ul><ul><li>Path to Changing the Electricity Mix </li></ul><ul><li>Business Mo...
Scenarios <ul><li>Way beyond conventional expectations </li></ul><ul><li>Requiring truly breakthrough innovation </li></ul...
<ul><li>Attacking Conventional Wisdom </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Finally making a distinction between Central and Distributed G...
Challenge Scenario <ul><li>Weak global economy, need  growth engine </li></ul><ul><li>Energy price inflation and expectati...
Challenge Scenario <ul><li>Loss of Local Jobs – town/city </li></ul><ul><li>Small Towns sending $Billions out of the local...
How Different? <ul><li>Whereas environmental concerns provoke only modest immediate concern and change scenarios </li></ul...
Distributed Generation Focus <ul><li>Where do we focus?  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The pressure to  reduce the risk  of energy...
Why Solar Photovoltaics? <ul><li>Solar PV has the largest political support across the board.  Solar does not have siting ...
Why worry about Natural Gas? <ul><li>75%+ of planned new electricity generation has been natural gas fueled </li></ul><ul>...
Why worry about Natural Gas? Electricity Share of Total Natural Gas Usage Natural Gas Prices  1995-2015 Source: GRI Baseli...
Why worry about Natural Gas? Natural Gas Prices have risen sharply in last 6 months
New Mandates Renewables <ul><ul><li>So… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New Mandates are Created   </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>P...
<ul><li>Attacking Conventional Wisdom </li></ul><ul><li>Path to Changing the Electricity Mix </li></ul><ul><li>Business Mo...
Solar <ul><li>Achieve material displacement of Natural Gas in Electricity </li></ul><ul><li>Greater energy supply diversit...
Theory of the Possible <ul><li>What would it take to significantly advance the take up of  Solar Electricity to have a maj...
Accelerating Change Natural Gas US Generating Capacity Source: EIA Solar PV US Generating Capacity Source: BP Solar analysis
Accelerating Change Solar PV US Generating Capacity Source: BP Solar analysis Natural Gas US Generating Capacity Source: B...
Cost Effective Markets Germany and Japan are already installing at 2007 prices due to learning curve leadership on labor a...
Cost Effective Markets There are over 50,000 GWhs being sold at prices in excess of 15 cents per kWh – a price at which so...
Near-term Solar Potential
Cost Challenge <ul><li>Large Multinational Manufacturers developing novel solutions to drive down costs </li></ul><ul><ul>...
Solar PV Pathway to 2015 Goal * All advances have already been discovered to achieve above benefits, implementation and op...
Solar Subsidy Justification Reduced deaths from particulate pollution and asthma related heath care costs Health Care –  s...
Japanese Solar Program Historical Solar Subsidy and Benefits 10 year program – Breakeven 2003/4 (Billions Yen)
Proposed US Program  Net Subsidy Required for Adoption in US 10 year program – Breakeven in 2014 (Billions $)
Public Will <ul><li>Cost breakthrough a function of experience/learning curve by installation crews </li></ul><ul><li>Tech...
Advantaged Cost <ul><li>How do we </li></ul><ul><li>Deliver </li></ul><ul><li>Customers </li></ul><ul><li>Cost Advantage? ...
<ul><li>Attacking Conventional Wisdom </li></ul><ul><li>Path to Changing the Energy Mix </li></ul><ul><li>Business Model I...
How large is the Industry Today? <ul><li>Solar cell and modules manufacturing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>15% of worldwide produ...
Alternative Paths to a Solar Future Existing Buildings Solar Mfg. <ul><li>Silicon </li></ul><ul><li>Thin-Films </li></ul><...
Existing Buildings <ul><li>Obviously the largest potential </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Local interconnection with Utility </li><...
New Construction <ul><li>Easiest market to drive down installed costs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Need mandate on new public bui...
How do we sell it? <ul><li>Best way to find customers is to focus on: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Public Institutions: Have exis...
What about other Renewables? <ul><li>Solar captures the imagination better than any other renewable energy technology </li...
Leveling Electricity Load Typical Electricity Load Profile Hours GW Peak loads, reduce load factor and are expensive to bu...
Electric Power Business <ul><li>Non-threatening: small % of total supply </li></ul><ul><li>Viewed more like Demand Side Ma...
Solar Suppliers <ul><li>Large well-capitalized companies have already entered into this new space (BP, Shell, Sharp, Sanyo...
Review <ul><li>Kick-start subsidies and then quickly levelize solar subsidies to the same amount on a $/BTU basis as fossi...
Risks <ul><li>Ability to structure the subsidies to reduce profit taking by the channel partners </li></ul><ul><li>Quality...
<ul><li>Attacking Conventional Wisdom </li></ul><ul><li>Path to Changing the Energy Mix </li></ul><ul><li>Business Model I...
Likelihood of Political Will <ul><li>Weak Global Economy </li></ul><ul><li>Energy Inflation Risks </li></ul><ul><li>Geopol...
Upside <ul><li>What investment could achieve this level of impact? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>America invented solar power, the...
Subsidy & Spending Examples <ul><li>$30 Billion  Tax breaks in the House and Senate version of the 2005 Energy Bill, inclu...
Barriers <ul><li>Public/private sector unintentional miscues </li></ul>Stated Solar PV enthusiasm <ul><li>Less than 1.0 Bi...
Requirements <ul><li>Spending ramp-up over next 3-4 years  </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>e.g.: $0.3 – 1 Billion/year </li></ul...
Putting it into Perspective
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Big Bet on Solar Power

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Moving Solar from the niche to the mainsteam to combat rising natural gas costs

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  • Transcript of "Big Bet on Solar Power"

    1. 1. Creating Dramatic Change while Supporting Local Jobs/Economies and America’s Dominance in Solar Energy Jigar Shah President and CEO SunEdison
    2. 2. <ul><li>Attacking Conventional Wisdom </li></ul><ul><li>Path to Changing the Electricity Mix </li></ul><ul><li>Business Model Implications for Energy Providers </li></ul><ul><li>Political Will as the Necessary Catalyst </li></ul>
    3. 3. Scenarios <ul><li>Way beyond conventional expectations </li></ul><ul><li>Requiring truly breakthrough innovation </li></ul><ul><li>Almost always surfacing significant opportunities </li></ul>Evaluation of Accelerated Change Scenarios
    4. 4. <ul><li>Attacking Conventional Wisdom </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Finally making a distinction between Central and Distributed Generation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Path to Changing the Electricity Mix </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduce #1 pollution source of Asthma and other health problems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>American Lung Association – 70,000 deaths per year </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Improve energy security, by reducing Oil & Natural Gas Demand </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Finance/Risk balance is the big challenge: volatility vs. stability </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Business Model Implications for Energy Providers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>BP, Shell, Sharp, Sanyo, & others find a large new market that more create local jobs/local benefits -- $12B and growing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy Providers have largely been outmaneuvered by their manufacturing customers on political issues, i.e. auto vs. oil </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Political Will: Converting consistent positive public opinion into a potent political force </li></ul>
    5. 5. Challenge Scenario <ul><li>Weak global economy, need growth engine </li></ul><ul><li>Energy price inflation and expectations of more inflation shave 1-2% off G8 GDP growth </li></ul><ul><li>Geopolitical concerns lead to growing view of fossil fuel supplies – “Unacceptable Risk” </li></ul>Political Will for Structural Resolution Set up Scenario:
    6. 6. Challenge Scenario <ul><li>Loss of Local Jobs – town/city </li></ul><ul><li>Small Towns sending $Billions out of the local economy for Electricity at a time that local jobs are desperately needed </li></ul><ul><li>Distributed Generation Technology has gone from Infancy into their Teenage Years </li></ul>Political Will for Local/Rural Economic Development Set up Scenario:
    7. 7. How Different? <ul><li>Whereas environmental concerns provoke only modest immediate concern and change scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Economic security motives create perception of acute nature of risk – providing significantly accelerated change </li></ul><ul><li>Deregulation problems and lack of electricity reliability present a big problem – 8/14 & Isabel </li></ul>Why does this accelerate change? Wild Card: Political Will
    8. 8. Distributed Generation Focus <ul><li>Where do we focus? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The pressure to reduce the risk of energy driven inflation and/or energy related disputes quickly puts the spotlight on the </li></ul></ul>Renewable Energy
    9. 9. Why Solar Photovoltaics? <ul><li>Solar PV has the largest political support across the board. Solar does not have siting problems, i.e. NIMBY. Solar can specifically replace the need for new natural gas peaking plants, and create the maximum local jobs/economic development </li></ul><ul><li>High First Costs </li></ul><ul><li>High Operating Costs </li></ul><ul><li>-Operations and Maintenance </li></ul><ul><li>-Emissions </li></ul><ul><li>-Local Regulations </li></ul>-High First Costs -Large Intermittency Issues -NIMBY -Trans.&Dist. Capacity -Resource Locations <ul><li>High First Costs </li></ul><ul><li>-Some Intermittency Issues </li></ul><ul><li>-Interconnection </li></ul><ul><li>-Small Projects </li></ul>Weaknesses -Proven, although not standardized -Ag development -Usually limited to using a waste stream -Reasonable Economics in certain cases -Proven Technology -Cost Competitive -Proven Technology -Siting -Higher Electricity Value (Retail) -Local Construction/O&M Jobs -Peak Power, utility friendly b/c impossible to produce at night Strengths BioMass Large Wind Solar PV
    10. 10. Why worry about Natural Gas? <ul><li>75%+ of planned new electricity generation has been natural gas fueled </li></ul><ul><li>Natural Gas is used by many manufacturing and fertilizer industries as a primary feedstock. Most of these industries cannot afford prices above $5/mmBTU </li></ul><ul><li>Many on-site generation technologies are based on natural gas (hydrogen for fuel cells, micro-turbines, NG recip. engines, etc.) </li></ul>
    11. 11. Why worry about Natural Gas? Electricity Share of Total Natural Gas Usage Natural Gas Prices 1995-2015 Source: GRI Baseline Center - 2000 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection Source: US Department of Energy – Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook , Annual Energy Outlook 2002
    12. 12. Why worry about Natural Gas? Natural Gas Prices have risen sharply in last 6 months
    13. 13. New Mandates Renewables <ul><ul><li>So… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New Mandates are Created </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pick a date – 2012 . . . 2014 . . . 2016 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>For Mass Adoption of </li></ul></ul>
    14. 14. <ul><li>Attacking Conventional Wisdom </li></ul><ul><li>Path to Changing the Electricity Mix </li></ul><ul><li>Business Model Implications for Energy Providers </li></ul><ul><li>Political Will as the Necessary Catalyst </li></ul>
    15. 15. Solar <ul><li>Achieve material displacement of Natural Gas in Electricity </li></ul><ul><li>Greater energy supply diversity = greater economic/national security </li></ul><ul><li>No NIMBY problems </li></ul><ul><li>Local Jobs, Local Fuels </li></ul>Why Solar?
    16. 16. Theory of the Possible <ul><li>What would it take to significantly advance the take up of Solar Electricity to have a major impact on reducing Natural Gas Prices? </li></ul>
    17. 17. Accelerating Change Natural Gas US Generating Capacity Source: EIA Solar PV US Generating Capacity Source: BP Solar analysis
    18. 18. Accelerating Change Solar PV US Generating Capacity Source: BP Solar analysis Natural Gas US Generating Capacity Source: BP Solar analysis Natural Gas Plant Consumption goes down as price effects from Natural Gas usage kicks in Solar is integrated within Fortune 500, Gov’t Buildings – federal, state, municipal
    19. 19. Cost Effective Markets Germany and Japan are already installing at 2007 prices due to learning curve leadership on labor and electronics costs 2005 2008 2012 2020
    20. 20. Cost Effective Markets There are over 50,000 GWhs being sold at prices in excess of 15 cents per kWh – a price at which solar will be able to compete cost effectively without subsidies in the next five years.
    21. 21. Near-term Solar Potential
    22. 22. Cost Challenge <ul><li>Large Multinational Manufacturers developing novel solutions to drive down costs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Manufacturing costs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Channel Efficiency </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Government Willing to Pay for Public Benefits </li></ul></ul><ul><li>US benefiting from Japanese and European Commitment to drive economies of scale on solar modules, but falling behind on labor and electronics cost efficiencies </li></ul>Biggest Challenge – Cost and Political Will
    23. 23. Solar PV Pathway to 2015 Goal * All advances have already been discovered to achieve above benefits, implementation and optimization through scale is required Cents per Retail kWh Total ownership cost Balance of System (BOS) Reliability 2015 goal O&M Solar Panels Balance of System/ Installation Labor Avg. Retail Electricity Price Cell Efficiency 14% to 17% Mfg. Yield 85%  95% Mfg. Scale (MWs) 30  200 Silicon Material  20% Installation Efficiency Scale/Speed Solar System Cost Reduction Impacts O&M Solar Panels BOS/ Install BOS/ Install
    24. 24. Solar Subsidy Justification Reduced deaths from particulate pollution and asthma related heath care costs Health Care – secondary using current cap & trade values Reliability, Loss Savings, Substation, Transmission, Peak Load Availability Electric Grid Reliability Benefits – secondary using current cap & trade values NO x , SO x , Mercury, and CO 2 Emissions – secondary using current cap & trade values Includes mfg, engineering, design, installation, and overhead jobs. Employment/Fees – income tax, sales tax, local fees Sources of Benefits from Solar Power Installations
    25. 25. Japanese Solar Program Historical Solar Subsidy and Benefits 10 year program – Breakeven 2003/4 (Billions Yen)
    26. 26. Proposed US Program Net Subsidy Required for Adoption in US 10 year program – Breakeven in 2014 (Billions $)
    27. 27. Public Will <ul><li>Cost breakthrough a function of experience/learning curve by installation crews </li></ul><ul><li>Technology deployment is a function of perceived return on investment by the customer – influenced by Political Leaders </li></ul><ul><li>Create sustainable near-term incentives designed to be tied to tangible value created through jobs, pollution reduction, and electricity grid reliability benefits </li></ul>What will it take to drive down these costs?
    28. 28. Advantaged Cost <ul><li>How do we </li></ul><ul><li>Deliver </li></ul><ul><li>Customers </li></ul><ul><li>Cost Advantage? </li></ul>We can get to parity in electricity costs…
    29. 29. <ul><li>Attacking Conventional Wisdom </li></ul><ul><li>Path to Changing the Energy Mix </li></ul><ul><li>Business Model Implications for Energy Providers </li></ul><ul><li>Political Will as the Necessary Catalyst </li></ul>
    30. 30. How large is the Industry Today? <ul><li>Solar cell and modules manufacturing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>15% of worldwide production (100 MWs), doubling every 5 years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Close to $1,000m in annual revenue, majority exported </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Balance of System (BOS) manufacturers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>15% of worldwide production, doubling every 3 years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Close to $200m in annual business, some exports </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Engineering, Distributors, Installers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Over 500 firms with close to $950MM in 2005 revenues </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Research and Academic Institutions </li></ul>Existing US Industry
    31. 31. Alternative Paths to a Solar Future Existing Buildings Solar Mfg. <ul><li>Silicon </li></ul><ul><li>Thin-Films </li></ul><ul><li>Organics </li></ul>Marketing Installation System New Construction <ul><li>Customer Identification </li></ul>$0.15 cents/kWh Note: Federal and some state mandates are largely in place for public buildings, execution needed Solar Mfg. <ul><li>Silicon </li></ul><ul><li>Thin-Films </li></ul><ul><li>Organics </li></ul>Regulation Installation System <ul><li>Federal Buildings </li></ul><ul><li>State Buildings </li></ul><ul><li>Municipal Buildings </li></ul>$0.12 cents/kWh
    32. 32. Existing Buildings <ul><li>Obviously the largest potential </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Local interconnection with Utility </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Equalized tax treatment with fossil energy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Local permitting and regulations for construction </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Already solved for 30% of population </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Market growth for solar with existing buildings has thus far been at 20-30% per annum, expected through 2020 </li></ul>Existing Stock
    33. 33. New Construction <ul><li>Easiest market to drive down installed costs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Need mandate on new public buildings </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Green buildings are growing at 50%+ per year </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Residential mandate has been the main driver for the Japanese market – Zero Energy Home </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Market growth in the US market has been difficult, pilot projects abound. Stable state subsidy programs through 2012, but no unifying vision to aggressively promote standardization </li></ul>New Stock
    34. 34. How do we sell it? <ul><li>Best way to find customers is to focus on: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Public Institutions: Have existing buildings with high quality rooftops and emissions mandate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Green Power: People who have chosen green power or have indicated they would like to go that direction – over 5% of US power users </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Grid Enhancement: Work with the Utility company to alleviate load pockets through strategic placement of assets </li></ul></ul>Implications for Channel
    35. 35. What about other Renewables? <ul><li>Solar captures the imagination better than any other renewable energy technology </li></ul><ul><li>The wholesale nature of Wind, Geothermal, Biomass is receiving support through green power programs, renewable portfolio standards, federal tax benefits, and electricity supply diversification initiatives </li></ul><ul><li>Wind, Geothermal, and Biomass will succeed through this program as well since to a large extent, they have achieved maturation for large central generation projects. </li></ul><ul><li>Solar is a local, visual complement to Central Station Renewables </li></ul><ul><li>Solar provides local jobs in the community installing the solar, not just in the overall state or country </li></ul>Implications for Renewables Broadly
    36. 36. Leveling Electricity Load Typical Electricity Load Profile Hours GW Peak loads, reduce load factor and are expensive to build around, peak PV power could shave the most expensive 2 % of peak demand in less than 10 years – reducing electricity costs by over 5% US Profile
    37. 37. Electric Power Business <ul><li>Non-threatening: small % of total supply </li></ul><ul><li>Viewed more like Demand Side Management, delaying or eliminating required utility investment in increased generation, T&D expansion/maintenance </li></ul><ul><li>Provides the impetus to move to time-of-day pricing essential to improving utility profitability and consumer energy efficiency </li></ul><ul><li>Switch from building and operating peaking plants to connecting and managing distributed “Power Parks” </li></ul>Implications for Power Business
    38. 38. Solar Suppliers <ul><li>Large well-capitalized companies have already entered into this new space (BP, Shell, Sharp, Sanyo, Kyocera,etc) </li></ul><ul><li>Huge opportunity to create local jobs/local economic development for Rural America and Electrical Unions </li></ul>Summary
    39. 39. Review <ul><li>Kick-start subsidies and then quickly levelize solar subsidies to the same amount on a $/BTU basis as fossil fuels. Peg subsidies to: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Job Creation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Health Care/Emissions Value </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>National Security/Economic Security </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Electricity Grid Reliability </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Free up Natural Gas to meet higher value needs such as fertilizer, manufacturing, and hydrogen </li></ul><ul><li>Re-establish US dominance as the leader of the clean energy sector </li></ul>Scenario Review:
    40. 40. Risks <ul><li>Ability to structure the subsidies to reduce profit taking by the channel partners </li></ul><ul><li>Quality in the systems deployed, i.e. wind in 1980s </li></ul><ul><li>Reduction of Installed Cost </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Improving labor productivity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sustaining the current cost reduction curve on equipment of 5% per annum through R&D support </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Fighting between the Renewable Technologies to receive a share of a perceived “fixed pie” instead of supporting “grow the pie” </li></ul>Biggest Risks to Scenario:
    41. 41. <ul><li>Attacking Conventional Wisdom </li></ul><ul><li>Path to Changing the Energy Mix </li></ul><ul><li>Business Model Implications for Energy Providers </li></ul><ul><li>Political Will as the Necessary Catalyst </li></ul>
    42. 42. Likelihood of Political Will <ul><li>Weak Global Economy </li></ul><ul><li>Energy Inflation Risks </li></ul><ul><li>Geopolitical Risks </li></ul>Drivers of Political Will Add to this: Opportunities for Political and Economic Upside
    43. 43. Upside <ul><li>What investment could achieve this level of impact? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>America invented solar power, they now perfect solar power </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Large capital investment in our Service Economy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Union support for this program (IBEW) [30 jobs per MW] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Predictable productivity enhancement matching the gains Germany and Japan have already made </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Potential for significant emissions reductions </li></ul></ul>Opportunities for Upside If you were a US Political Leader Trying to Inspire your Electorate…
    44. 44. Subsidy & Spending Examples <ul><li>$30 Billion Tax breaks in the House and Senate version of the 2005 Energy Bill, including </li></ul><ul><ul><li>$12 billion for Nuclear Industry </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>$9.0 billion for Coal Industry </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>$6.0 billion in Oil and Gas subsidies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>$1.7 billion for Electric Transmission Companies </li></ul></ul><ul><li>$1.5 Billion Renewable Energy Budget in the Department of Energy expected over next 5 yrs </li></ul><ul><li>$1.5 Billion Cumulative Solar PV Subsidies being funded by over 14 U.S. States through 2012 </li></ul>The $10 Billion incentive this requires over 10 years is small relative to the size of other programs Source: Public Citizen
    45. 45. Barriers <ul><li>Public/private sector unintentional miscues </li></ul>Stated Solar PV enthusiasm <ul><li>Less than 1.0 Billion spending over 5 years </li></ul><ul><li>2020 before things get interesting </li></ul>Private sector does not drive to action Biggest Barrier to Political Will
    46. 46. Requirements <ul><li>Spending ramp-up over next 3-4 years </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>e.g.: $0.3 – 1 Billion/year </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Design of significant incentives to attract customer to the market ($3B over first 4 years) </li></ul><ul><li>Subsidies per unit reduced over 10 year to a sustainable level commensurate with oil, natural gas, nuclear, and coal subsidies to match annual government economic benefits </li></ul>What would it take?
    47. 47. Putting it into Perspective

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