IIMA5purusharth

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IIMA5purusharth

  1. 1. Poojan Chokshi Kalyan Bhaskar Rajiv Ranjan Vatsal Jain Ashish Ranjan THE SUNRISE STATES: Realizing the Growth Potential of North-East Submission for by
  2. 2. Strengths • Known for its tourism • Diverse culture • Strategic geographical location • Relatively high literacy rates • Resource rich States Weaknesses • Disorganized tourism • Poor connectivity • Projected high rate of unemployment • Less media Coverage Opportunities • Tourism potential – intra & cross-border • Trade potential with neighbouring countries • Public-private collaboration potential Threats • Insurgency / Security threats • Poor perception due to the same Situation Analysis 2 Goal: Integrated development harnessing region’s strengths, exploiting opportunities while overcoming weaknesses and threats
  3. 3. •Define a desirable future goal and then working backwards to identify policies and steps needed to connect the desirable future with present. •Long term vision & plan is vital in order to get out of path dependency Backcasting •Relevant in current context as we are talking about ‘growth potential of NE’ •Long term vision ensures sustainable development takes place •Widely used in government planning, resource management, growth policies - especially in developed countries Relevance in current context •Other measures like incremental planning or forecasting shrouds long-term planning because of excess tendency to get into micro level issues •Backcasting ensures such is not the case as a long term vision ensures planned measures get rid of path dependency Advantages over other methods •1. Identify vision for areas to develop in 2030 & amenities to be provided •2. Identify key amenities to be targeted •3. Identify current status and challenges for each area, implementation way forward and critical factors for success. Steps Proposed approach: Using “Backcasting” to leverage strengths of NE States 3
  4. 4. Ensure seamless air, rail, & road connectivity to promote tourism & trade, reduce security threats Develop local and intra-regional trade; Leverage geographical advantage; Local handicraft focus Leverage tourism potential and develop tourism hubs while ensuring cultural heritage Focus sectors*: Vision 2030 * Disclaimer: Not to say other areas (such as Power, Agriculture, Media, etc) are not important. The selection is done given the constraints on no. of slides
  5. 5. Tourism & Connectivity Trade & Employment 5 Status, Challenges & Implementation • Most NE states rank lowest in terms of Infrastructure Index (see Appendix 1) • National Highways dominate the road network in the region, a reflection of the fact that the purpose is external trade and security requirements rather than connectivity within the State to benefit the common people – Lack of State roads • The rail network in the North East form only 3.7% of the national rail network Current Status • Insurgency threat: ICM estimates that 5283 people have been killed due to insurgency related events in the North-East since 2005 • Region is grossly infrastructure deficient to tap the available resources and push the economy forward • Fund allocation by Central govt. has vastly improved but governance failures prevail when it comes to developing infrastructure connectivity Current Opportunities • In view of fact 3 (above), there should also be focus on State Highways, develop smaller roads under PMGSY, JNNURM II, inter-village roads & border roads etc. Have a sustainable policy for road maintenance in view of high wear & tear. Check adulteration. • Aggressively promote tourism (like ‘Malaysia – Truly Asia’ or Gujarat Government Tourism brand campaign) as tourism potential is immense and stats indicate the sector can generate more employment per million Rs. spent than any other activities Way Forward
  6. 6. Tourism & Connectivity Trade & Employment 6 Status, Challenges & Implementation • 8% of India’s geographical area but only 2.3% in terms of country’s GDP contribution • Only 2.6 million jobs for 17 million job seekers (2011-2021 projections based on current trends) • Agriculture sector contributing ~ 40 % of the income and 70 % employment of total working population • NE’s contribution to national exports is < 0.004% Current Status • Strategic location: Shares land border with five countries • Immense potential to develop agro & food processing, forest produce, handloom & handicrafts and other MSMEs • Potential to generate 80% of the total hydropower potential in the country Current Opportunities • Aggressively develop and promote attractive policies that incentivizes development of agro & food processing, forest produce, handloom & handicrafts and other MSMEs • Earmark funds with incentives given based on sectoral development within the region • Treat NER in a way to enable import substitution. This would expand regional demand that would be met via production within the region itself • Simultaneously public investment in infrastructure and higher and easier availability of credit should all be part of the four pronged industrialization strategy for the NER. Way Forward
  7. 7. Tourism & Connectivity Trade & Employment Impact • Security threats will be lessened by ensuring greater connectivity • Tourism hubs similar to Kerela, Rajasthan could be developed in the long run • The former (connectivity leading to safety) will ensure influx of more capital and development of industries • A knock-on effect would be on the employment and harnessing strenghts of the regional, it can be mitigated Challenges • Lack of good governance • Adulteration in building roads, infrastructure • Hilly topography increases costs • Security also stands as an initial threat • Lack of good governance, again an issue • Inefficient earmarking of funds Mitigation Factors • Finance Commissions can further help in allocation and release of funds but monitoring conditions needs to be strengthened • Transparency and accountability of States should be ensured by step release of funds & penalties for non-compliance • The media should increasingly play a role in highlighting developmental issues instead of only broadcasting insurgency events 7 Impact, Challenges & Mitigation Factors
  8. 8. Appendix 1: Infrastructure Index for NE States Category Human Development Index Infrastructure Index High Mizoram High Middle Manipur, Nagaland, Sikkim Middle Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Tripura Lower Middle Low Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim and Tripura 8 Source: Report of the Twelfth Finance Commission, p 61.
  9. 9. • Planning Commission (2011): Report of the Working Group on Improvement and Development of Transport Infrastructure in the North East for the National Transport Development Policy Committee • India’s North-East Diversifying Growth Opportunities (PWC 2013) • Ministry of Development of North East Region: Comment on Approach to the 12th Five Year Plan http://www.mdoner.gov.in/content/comments- approach-12th-plan-0 • Results Framework Document of the Ministry of Dev. of North Eastern Region (2012-2013) http://www.performance.gov.in/sites/default/files/ document/rfd/rfd-2012-13/donear.pdf • http://planningcommission.nic.in/reports/genrep/n e_exe.pdf • SWOT Analysis http://www.unexplored-ne- india.com/2007/04/swot-analysis-of-north-east- region.html • Security Trends South Asia » North East » Improvement in North East Security Situation (2013) http://www.security-risks.com/security- trends-south-asia/india-north-east/improvement- in-north-east-security-situation-1836.html • Project Report on Problems of Border Areas in North East India: Implications for the Thirteenth Finance Commission: A report sponsored by The Thirteenth Finance Commission, http://fincomindia.nic.in/writereaddata%5Chtml_e n_files%5Coldcommission_html/fincom13/discussi on/report14.pdf • Italian Trade Commission Report on ‘India: Profile of the North East 2011’ http://italiaindia.com/images/uploads/pdf/north- east-2011.pdf • IDSA Occasional Paper No. 8 (Nov. 2009): A Study on Illegal Immigration into North-East India: The Case of Nagaland http://www.idsa.in/system/files/OccasionalPaper8_ NagalandIllegalImmigrationl.pdf • MCRG report: http://www.mcrg.ac.in/Core/Northeast_Report.pdf 9 References
  10. 10. Thank You

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